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Osthus, David Allen

Publications and source records attributed to Osthus, David Allen.

18 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Mesoscale informed parameter estimation through machine learning: A case-study in fracture modeling

Scale bridging is a critical need in computational sciences, where the modeling community has developed accurate physics models from first principles, of processes at lower length and time scales that influence the behavior at the higher scales of interest. However, it is not computationally feasible to incorporate all of the lower length scale physics directly into upscaled models. This is an area where machine learning has shown promise in building emulators of the lower length scale models, which incur a mere fraction of the computational cost of the original higher fidelity models. We demonstrate the use of machine learning using an example in materials science estimating continuum scale parameters by emulating, with uncertainties, complicated mesoscale physics. Additionally, we describe a new framework to emulate the fine scale physics, especially in the presence of microstructures, using machine learning, and showcase its usefulness by providing an example from modeling fracture propagation. Our approach can be thought of as a data-driven dimension reduction technique that yields probabilistic emulators. Our results show well-calibrated predictions for the quantities of interests in a low-strain simulation of fracture propagation at the mesoscale level. Furthermore, on average, we achieve ~10% relative errors on time-varying quantities like total damage and maximum stresses. Successfully replicating mesoscale scale physics within the continuum models is a crucial step towards predictive capability in multi-scale problems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2019

Accuracy of real-time multi-model ensemble forecasts for seasonal influenza in the U.S.

Seasonal influenza results in substantial annual morbidity and mortality in the United States and worldwide. Accurate forecasts of key features of influenza epidemics, such as the timing and severity of the peak incidence in a given season, can inform public health response to outbreaks. As part of ongoing efforts to incorporate data and advanced analytical methods into public health decision-making, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has organized seasonal influenza forecasting challenges since the 2013/2014 season. In the 2017/2018 season, 22 teams participated. A subset of four teams created a research consortium called the FluSight Network in early 2017. During the 2017/2018 season they worked together to produce a collaborative multi-model ensemble that combined 21 separate component models into a single model using a machine learning technique called stacking. This approach creates a weighted average of predictive densities where the weight for each component is determined by maximizing overall ensemble accuracy over past seasons. In the 2017/2018 influenza season, one of the largest seasonal outbreaks in the last 15 years, this multi-model ensemble performed better on average than all individual component models and placed second overall in the CDC challenge. It also outperformed the baseline multi-model ensemble created by the CDC that took a simple average of all models submitted to the forecasting challenge. This project shows that collaborative efforts between research teams to develop ensemble forecasting approaches can bring measurable improvements in forecast accuracy and important reductions in the variability of performance from year to year. Efforts such as this, that emphasize real-time testing and evaluation of forecasting models and facilitate the close collaboration between public health officials and modeling researchers, are essential to improving our understanding of how best to use forecasts to improve public health response to seasonal and emerging epidemic threats.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Estimating influenza incidence using search query deceptiveness and generalized ridge regression

Seasonal influenza is a sometimes surprisingly impactful disease, causing thousands of deaths per year along with much additional morbidity. Timely knowledge of the outbreak state is valuable for managing an effective response. The current state of the art is to gather this knowledge using in-person patient contact. While accurate, this is time-consuming and expensive. This has motivated inquiry into new approaches using internet activity traces, based on the theory that lay observations of health status lead to informative features in internet data. These approaches risk being deceived by activity traces having a coincidental, rather than informative, relationship to disease incidence; to our knowledge, this risk has not yet been quantitatively explored. We evaluated both simulated and real activity traces of varying deceptiveness for influenza incidence estimation using linear regression. We found that deceptiveness knowledge does reduce error in such estimates, that it may help automatically- selected features perform as well or better than features that require human curation, and that a semantic distance measure derived from the Wikipedia article category tree serves as a useful proxy for deceptiveness. This suggests that disease incidence estimation models should incorporate not only data about how internet features map to incidence but also additional data to estimate feature deceptiveness. By doing so, we may gain one more step along the path to accurate, reliable disease incidence estimation using internet data. This capability would improve public health by decreasing the cost and increasing the timeliness of such estimates.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Reply to Bracher: Scoring probabilistic forecasts to maximize public health interpretability

Evaluating probabilistic forecasts in the context of a real-time public health surveillance system is a complicated business. We agree with Bracher’s (1) observations that the scores established by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and used to evaluate our forecasts of seasonal influenza in the United States are not “proper” by definition (2). We thank him for raising this important issue.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Even a good influenza forecasting model can benefit from internet-based nowcasts, but those benefits are limited

The ability to produce timely and accurate flu forecasts in the United States can significantly impact public health. Augmenting forecasts with internet data has shown promise for improving forecast accuracy and timeliness in controlled settings, but results in practice are less convincing, as models augmented with internet data have not consistently outperformed models without internet data. In this paper, we perform a controlled experiment, taking into account data backfill, to improve clarity on the benefits and limitations of augmenting an already good flu forecasting model with internet-based nowcasts. Here, our results show that a good flu forecasting model can benefit from the augmentation of internet-based nowcasts in practice for all considered public health-relevant forecasting targets. The degree of forecast improvement due to nowcasting, however, is uneven across forecasting targets, with short-term forecasting targets seeing the largest improvements and seasonal targets such as the peak timing and intensity seeing relatively marginal improvements. The uneven forecasting improvements across targets hold even when “perfect” nowcasts are used. These findings suggest that further improvements to flu forecasting, particularly seasonal targets, will need to derive from other, non-nowcasting approaches.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

A collaborative multiyear, multimodel assessment of seasonal influenza forecasting in the United States

Influenza infects an estimated 9–35 million individuals each year in the United States and is a contributing cause for between 12,000 and 56,000 deaths annually. Seasonal outbreaks of influenza are common in temperate regions of the world, with highest incidence typically occurring in colder and drier months of the year. Real-time forecasts of influenza transmission can inform public health response to outbreaks. We present the results of a multiinstitution collaborative effort to standardize the collection and evaluation of forecasting models for influenza in the United States for the 2010/2011 through 2016/2017 influenza seasons. For these seven seasons, we assembled weekly real-time forecasts of seven targets of public health interest from 22 different models. We compared forecast accuracy of each model relative to a historical baseline seasonal average. Across all regions of the United States, over half of the models showed consistently better performance than the historical baseline when forecasting incidence of influenza-like illness 1 wk, 2 wk, and 3 wk ahead of available data and when forecasting the timing and magnitude of the seasonal peak. In some regions, delays in data reporting were strongly and negatively associated with forecast accuracy. More timely reporting and an improved overall accessibility to novel and traditional data sources are needed to improve forecasting accuracy and its integration with real-time public health decision making.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Identifying Backbones in Three-Dimensional Discrete Fracture Networks: A Bipartite Graph-Based Approach

In this paper, we present a graph-based method to identify primary flow and transport sub-networks in three-dimensional discrete fracture networks (DFNs). The structure of a DFN lends itself to the use of graphs as a coarse-scale representation that retains the multiscale nature of flow and transport through fracture media. We develop a bipartite graph representation that integrates fracture network topology, fracture geometry, and hydraulic properties. We show that the two most common graph-representations of DFNs, vertices representing intersections and vertices representing fractures, are projections of this bipartite graph thereby providing a generalization of previous DFN-graph frameworks. The primary subnetworks in each DFN are identified by running a heuristic algorithm that determines the edge-disjoint shortest paths through the graph which correspond to the regions where the fastest transport occurs. The method does not have any user-defined parameters and terminates in a finite number of steps. The quality of the method is demonstrated by comparing transport simulations on the identified primary subnetwork and full network, which are in good agreement for early and middle times. In conclusion, these estimates of the first passage times can be achieved with close to an order of magnitude reduction of computational expense using the proposed method.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Fourier amplitude sensitivity test applied to dynamic combined finite-discrete element methods-based simulations

Fracture propagation plays a key role for a number of applications of interest to the scientific community, from dynamic fracture processes like spallation and fragmentation in metals to failure of ceramics, airplane wings, etc. Simulations of material deformation and fracture propagation rely on accurate knowledge of material characteristics such as material strength and the amount of energy being dissipated during the fracture process. Within the combined finite-discrete element method (FDEM) framework material fracture behavior is typically described through a parametrized softening curve, which defines a stress-strain relationship unique to each material. We apply the Fourier amplitude sensitivity test to explore how each of these parameters influences the simulated damage processes and to determine the key input parameters that have the most impact on the model response. We present several sensitivity numerical experiments for the simulation of a split Hopkinson pressure bar (SHPB) test for weathered granite samples using different combinations of model parameters. We validate the obtained results against SHPB experimental data. The experiments show that the model is mostly sensitive to parameters related to tensile and shear strengths, even in the presence of other parameter perturbations. Lastly, the results suggest that the specification of tensile and shear strengths at the interfaces dominate the stress-time history of the FDEM simulation of SHPB test.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2017

Imputation for multisource data with comparison and assessment techniques

Missing data are prevalent issue in analyses involving data collection. The problem of missing data is exacerbated for multisource analysis, where data from multiple sensors are combined to arrive at a single conclusion. In this scenario, it is more likely to occur and can lead to discarding a large amount of data collected; however, the information from observed sensors can be leveraged to estimate those values not observed. We propose two methods for imputation of multisource data, both of which take advantage of potential correlation between data from different sensors, through ridge regression and a state-space model. These methods, as well as the common median imputation, are applied to data collected from a variety of sensors monitoring an experimental facility. Performance of imputation methods is compared with the mean absolute deviation; however, rather than using this metric to solely rank themethods,we also propose an approach to identify significant differences. Imputation techniqueswill also be assessed by their ability to produce appropriate confidence intervals, through coverage and length, around the imputed values. Finally, performance of imputed datasets is compared with a marginalized dataset through a weighted k-means clustering. In general, we found that imputation through a dynamic linearmodel tended to be the most accurate and to produce the most precise confidence intervals, and that imputing the missing values and down weighting them with respect to observed values in the analysis led to the most accurate performance.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗