Engineering topics
Nolan, Michael C.
Publications and source records attributed to Nolan, Michael C..
OSIRIS-REx Encounters Bennu: Initial Assessment from the Approach Phase
The OSIRIS-REx spacecraft launched on September 8, 2016, on a seven-year journey to return samples from asteroid (101955) Bennu. This presentation summarizes the scientific results from the Approach and Preliminary Survey phases. Bennu observations are set to begin on August 17, 2018,when the asteroid is bright enough for detection by the PolyCam. PolyCam and MapCam collect data to survey the asteroid environment for any hazards and characterize the asteroid point-source photometric properties. Resolved images acquired during final approach, starting in late October 2018, allow the creation of a shape model using stereophotoclinometry (SPC), needed by both the navigation team and science planners. The OVIRS and OTES spectrometers characterize the point- source spectral properties over a full rotation period, providing a first look at any features and thermophysical properties. TAGSAM is released from the launch container and deployed into the sampling configuration then returned to the stow position.Preliminary Survey follows the Approach Phase in early December 2018. This phase consists of a series of hyperbolic trajectories that cross over the North and South poles and the equator of Bennu at a close-approach distance of 7 km. Images from these Preliminary Survey passes provide data to complete the 75-cm resolution SPC global shape model and solve for the rotation state. Once the shape model is complete, the asteroid coordinate system is defined for co-registration of all data products. These higher-resolution images also constrain the photometric properties and allow for an initial assessment of the geology. In Preliminary Survey the team also obtains the first OLA data, providing a measure of the surface topography. OVIRS and OTES collect data as "ride-along" instruments, with the spacecraft pointing driven by imaging constraints. These data provide a first look at the spectral variation across the surface of Bennu. Radio science measurements, combined with altimetry and imagery, determine Bennu's mass, a prerequisite to placing the spacecraft into orbit in late December 2018. Together, data from the Approach and Preliminary Survey phases set the stage for the extensive mapping planned for 2019. These dates are the baseline plan. Any contingency or unexpected discovery may change this mission profile.
NEAs: Phase Angle Dependence of Asteroid Class and Diameter from Observational Studies
We will discuss the results of a planned observation campaign of Near Earth Asteroids (NEAs), 1999 CU3, 2002 GM2, 2002 FG7, and 3691 Bede with instruments on the United Kingdom Infrared Telescope (UKIRT) from 15-Mar-2015 to 28-April 2015 UT. We will study the phase-angle dependence of the reflectance and thermal emission spectra. Recent publications reveal that the assignment of the asteroid class from visible and near-IR spectroscopy can change with phase angle for NEAs with silicate-bearing minerals on their surfaces (S-class asteroids) (Thomas et al. 2014, Icarus 228, 217; Sanchez et al. 2012 Icarus 220, 36). Only three of the larger NEAs have been measured at a dozen phase angles and the trends are not all the same, so there is not yet enough information to create a phase-angle correction. Also, the phase angle effect is not characterized well for the thermal emission including determination of the albedo and the thermal emission. The few NEAs were selected for our study amongst many possible targets based on being able to observe them through a wide range of phase angles, ranging from less than about 10 degrees to greater than 45 degrees over the constrained date range. The orbits of NEAs often generate short observing windows at phase angles higher than 45 deg (i.e., whizzing by Earth and/or close to dawn or dusk). Ultimately, lowering the uncertainty of the translation of asteroid class to meteorite analog and of albedo and size determinations are amongst our science goals. On a few specific nights, we plan to observe the 0.75-2.5 micron spectra with IRTF+SpeX for comparison with UKIRT data including 5-20 micron with UKIRT+UIST/Michelle to determine as best as possible the albedos. To ensure correct phasing of spectroscopic data, we augment with TRAPPIST-telescope light curves and R-band guider image data. Our observations will contribute to understanding single epoch mid-IR and near-IR measurements to obtain albedo, size and IR beaming parameters (the outcomes of thermal models) and asteroid spectral class.
Evidence for Crater Ejecta on Venus Tessera Terrain from Earth-Based Radar Images
We combine Earth-based radar maps of Venus from the 1988 and 2012 inferior conjunctions, which had similar viewing geometries. Processing of both datasets with better image focusing and co-registration techniques, and summing over multiple looks, yields maps with 1-2 km spatial resolution and improved signal to noise ratio, especially in the weaker same-sense circular (SC) polarization. The SC maps are unique to Earth-based observations, and offer a different view of surface properties from orbital mapping using same-sense linear (HH or VV) polarization. Highland or tessera terrains on Venus, which may retain a record of crustal differentiation and processes occurring prior to the loss of water, are of great interest for future spacecraft landings. The Earth-based radar images reveal multiple examples of tessera mantling by impact ''parabolas'' or ''haloes'', and can extend mapping of locally thick material from Magellan data by revealing thinner deposits over much larger areas. Of particular interest is an ejecta deposit from Stuart crater that we infer to mantle much of eastern Alpha Regio. Some radar-dark tessera occurrences may indicate sediments that are trapped for longer periods than in the plains. We suggest that such radar information is important for interpretation of orbital infrared data and selection of future tessera landing sites.
Predicting the Earth encounters of (99942) Apophis
Arecibo delay-Doppler measurements of (99942) Apophis in 2005 and 2006 resulted in a five standard-deviation trajectory correction to the optically predicted close approach distance to Earth in 2029. The radar measurements reduced the volume of the statistical uncertainty region entering the encounter to 7.3% of the pre-radar solution, but increased the trajectory uncertainty growth rate across the encounter by 800% due to the closer predicted approach to the Earth. A small estimated Earth impact probability remained for 2036. With standard-deviation plane-of-sky position uncertainties for 2007-2010 already less than 0.2 arcsec, the best near-term ground-based optical astrometry can only weakly affect the trajectory estimate. While the potential for impact in 2036 will likely be excluded in 2013 (if not 2011) using ground-based optical measurements, approximations within the Standard Dynamical Model (SDM) used to estimate and predict the trajectory from the current era are sufficient to obscure the difference between a predicted impact and a miss in 2036 by altering the dynamics leading into the 2029 encounter. Normal impact probability assessments based on the SDM become problematic without knowledge of the object's physical properties; impact could be excluded while the actual dynamics still permit it. Calibrated position uncertainty intervals are developed to compensate for this by characterizing the minimum and maximum effect of physical parameters on the trajectory. Uncertainty in accelerations related to solar radiation can cause between 82 and 4720 Earth-radii of trajectory change relative to the SDM by 2036. If an actionable hazard exists, alteration by 2-10% of Apophis' total absorption of solar radiation in 2018 could be sufficient to produce a six standard-deviation trajectory change by 2036 given physical characterization; even a 0.5% change could produce a trajectory shift of one Earth-radius by 2036 for all possible spin-poles and likely masses. Planetary ephemeris uncertainties are the next greatest source of systematic error, causing up to 23 Earth-radii of uncertainty. The SDM Earth point-mass assumption introduces an additional 2.9 Earth-radii of prediction error by 2036. Unmodeled asteroid perturbations produce as much as 2.3 Earth-radii of error. We find no future small-body encounters likely to yield an Apophis mass determination prior to 2029. However, asteroid (144898) 2004 VD17, itself having a statistical Earth impact in 2102, will probably encounter Apophis at 6.7 lunar distances in 2034, their uncertainty regions coming as close as 1.6 lunar distances near the center of both SDM probability distributions.
Near-Earth Asteroid 2005 CR37: Radar Images and Photometry of a Candidate Contact Binary
Arecibo (2380 MHz, 13 cm) radar observations of 2005 CR37 provide detailed images of a candidate contact binary: a 1.8-km-long, extremely bifurcated object. Although the asteroid's two lobes are round, there are regions of modest topographic relief, such as an elevated, 200-m-wide facet, that suggest that the lobes are geologically more complex than either coherent fragments or homogeneous rubble piles. Since January 1999, about 9% of NEAs larger than approx.200 m imaged by radar can be described as candidate contact binaries.
Velocity distributions among colliding asteroids
The probability distribution for impact velocities between two given asteroids is wide, non-Gaussian, and often contains spikes according to our new method of analysis in which each possible orbital geometry for collision is weighted according to its probability. An average value would give a good representation only if the distribution were smooth and narrow. Therefore, the complete velocity distribution we obtain for various asteroid populations differs significantly from published histograms of average velocities. For all pairs among the 682 asteroids in the main-belt with D greater than 50 km, we find that our computed velocity distribution is much wider than previously computed histograms of average velocities. In this case, the most probable impact velocity is approximately 4.4 km/sec, compared with the mean impact velocity of 5.3 km/sec. For cases of a single asteroid (e.g., Gaspra or Ida) relative to an impacting population, the distribution we find yields lower velocities than previously reported by others. The width of these velocity distributions implies that mean impact velocities must be used with caution when calculating asteroid collisional lifetimes or crater-size distributions. Since the most probable impact velocities are lower than the mean, disruption events may occur less frequently than previously estimated. However, this disruption rate may be balanced somewhat by an apparent increase in the frequency of high-velocity impacts between asteroids. These results have implications for issues such as asteroidal disruption rates, the amount/type of impact ejecta available for meteoritical delivery to the Earth, and the geology and evolution of specific asteroids like Gaspra.
A massive early atmosphere on Triton
The idea of an early greenhouse atmosphere for Triton is presented and the conditions under which it may have been sustained are quantified. The volatile content of primordial Triton is modeled, and tidal heating rates are assessed to set bounds on the available energy. The atmospheric model formalism is presented, and it is shown how a massive atmosphere could have been raised by modest tidal heating fluxes. The implications of the model atmospheres for the atmospheric escape rates, the chemical evolution, and the cratering record are addressed.
Delivery of asteroids and meteorites to the inner solar system
Two major models of asteroid/meteorite demographics are described and reviewed critically: the collisional model of Greenberg and Chapman (1983), and the orbital evolution model of Wetherill (1985). It is shown that each of the two models tends to gloss over the central processes in the other and tends to ignore (and to some degree violate) the key observables that constrain the other model. The uncertainties that prevent definite acceptance of any particular model for the delivery of asteroidal material to the earth are described.
Some constraints on a greenhouse atmosphere for Triton
The possibility that a thick atmosphere exists around Neptune's satellite Triton is examined. The IR optical depth in the gray atmosphere approximation is computed for a range of possible surface compositions, albedos, and gravities. It is found that a self-sustaining optically-thick atmosphere is possible if molecular nitrogen and/or hydrogen are present. It is suggested that bimodal behavior of Triton's atmosphere is possible as seasonal effects and volatile distribution alter the distribution of thermal emission.