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Nikhil Pailoor

Publications and source records attributed to Nikhil Pailoor.

Modeling Methods for 3D Lightning Mapping from Space

Global lightning detection has advanced greatly over the past few decades both on ground and from orbit. Ground-based systems like the Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) excel at high-precision 3D reconstruction of local flashes, while spaceborne lightning sensors have much larger potential coverage but are limited by coarser resolution and often rely on data from other instruments to determine 3D flash locations. CubeSpark is a new mission concept focused on combining these two methods in the form of six small satellites in low-Earth orbit. CubeSpark will combine RF and bispectral optical measurements of lightning in order to map the 3D structure of both individual flashes and their parent thunderstorms at 1-2 km spatial resolution on a global scale, enabling a host of new atmospheric, climate, and space electricity studies. The goal of this study is to assess the feasibility and expected resolution of lightning mapping via indivudal VHF sources using different methods and detector combinations. Flashes were simulated beneath orbital configurations consisting of 1-6 satellites, taking into account the complicated interactions with Earth's ionosphere. In the multi-satellite (>5) approach, RF detectors on each satellite measure the arrival times of impulsive VHF sources to collectively pinpoint their locations in 3D and reconstruct flashes with higher resolution than has been achieved from space. The same can process can be performed with 3-4 satellites by constraining sources' horizontal locations with onboard optical imagers. A 1-2 station approach follows the established method of determining the height of an RF source using the arrival time difference between direct RF waves and their reflections off the Earth's surface. Here we present preliminary results of the expected accuracy of these methods to inform potential satellite missions like CubeSpark.

Lightning

Improvements to the Simulated CubeSpark Satellite Constellation and Their Effects on Lightning Geolocation Accuracy from Orbit

The CubeSpark mission concept is being developed as a constellation of up to six satellites in low-Earth orbit (LEO) for high resolution 3D lightning mapping using optical and radio frequency (RF) sensors. Individual lightning VHF signals are simulated from Earth’s atmosphere through the ionosphere to each satellite, using their arrival times to reconstruct source locations. Here we present recent updates to these simulations based on improved ionospheric modeling, with a focus on the expected three-dimensional resolution. These studies include testing from the equator up to high latitudes, with varying vertical total electron content (vTEC), and using between one and six orbiting stations. In addition to the more robust ionosphere model, the constellation formation has also been updated to reduce its resulting errors and increase the effective range of VHF geolocation from space. The goals of CubeSpark include mapping thundercloud charge structure as well as lightning channel lengths relevant to climatology, meteorology, and more. These applications require location uncertainty less than 1-2 km in each dimension. This improved algorithm shows sufficient resolution up to high latitudes, including significantly larger areas having 3D resolution less than 1 km. Analysis of the distributions of biases in simulated arrival times has also revealed the unexpected relationship between the shape of those distributions and the resulting uncertainties. This work helps to refine our understanding of the sources of error in lightning geolocation and reinforces the potential for post-processing improvements in this and other similar systems.

Lightning

3D Lightning Geolocation With the CubeSpark Constellation

The new CubeSpark mission concept is being developed as a constellation of up to six satellites for high-resolution 3D lightning mapping. Each satellite in low-Earth orbit (LEO) will use optical and radio frequency (RF) sensors to geolocate individual sources from lightning flashes. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the potential accuracies and feasibilities of RF-based geolocation methods. This is done using a robust simulation framework to accurately depict the ionosphere’s effect on propagating RF signals, using their arrival times at each station to reconstruct source locations. We identified the primary sources of error as geometric, ionospheric, and instrumental. These are each analyzed to determine their quantitative effect on geolocation uncertainty. CubeSpark’s science objectives include mapping thundercloud charge regions and even individual flash channel structure for applications across a wide range of fields from climatology to hydrology. These applications require geolocation accuracy better than 1-2 km in each dimension, thus special care must be taken to optimize constellation design, minimize the main sources of error, and maximize CubeSpark’s potential. The algorithms developed in this study show promising results, with large regions having both horizontal and vertical uncertainties less than 1 km. After the removal of the Lightning Imaging Sensor from the International Space Station, an observational gap has been left for lightning observers from LEO. It therefore becomes increasingly vital to evaluate and improve on the current state of lightning mapping to prepare for the next generation of 3D lightning geolocation.

lightning

3D Geolocation of Simulated Lightning Sources from Low-Earth Orbit

The recent removal of the Lightning Imaging Sensor from the International Space Station has left an observational gap in lightning detection from low-Earth orbit (LEO). However, new studies have demonstrated the potential for 3D geolocation of lightning sources using orbiting sensors. The Cubespark mission concept aims to take advantage of these developments by deploying a constellation of satellites with radio frequency (RF) sensors and optical imagers to not only map lightning locations, but also to collect bi-spectral flash images. These new capabilities include mapping storm charge structure, flash channel structure, and distinguishing microphysical processes throughout flash development, helping link microphysics and convective processes with overall flash and storm structure around the globe from LEO. In this study, we simulate lightning RF sources in the very high frequency (VHF) band, extrapolate their signals to space-based detection using an improved ionospheric model, and reconstruct their 3D locations using a time-of-arrival (TOA) minimization algorithm. Various constellation configurations, locations, and atmospheric conditions are considered in order to identify and quantify the three main sources of geolocation error: geometric, ionospheric, and instrumental effects. The promising results of this study emphasize the potential of space-based 3D lightning mapping under diverse conditions. 3D resolution is shown to be better than 1-2 km in many cases, enabling new global applications in meteorology and climate sciences. Here we present a selection of these geolocation results as seen from space alongside recent advancements, paving the way for a future generation of LEO lightning mappers.

CubeSpark

3D Lightning Geolocation with the CubeSpark Constellation

The new CubeSpark mission concept is being developed as a constellation of up to six satellites for high-resolution 3D lightning mapping. Each satellite in low-Earth orbit (LEO) will use optical and radio frequency (RF) sensors to geolocate individual sources from lightning flashes. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the potential accuracies and feasibilities of RF-based geolocation methods. This is done using a robust simulation framework to accurately depict the ionosphere’s effect on propagating RF signals, using their arrival times at each station to reconstruct source locations. We identified the primary sources of error as geometric, ionospheric, and instrumental. These are each analyzed to determine their quantitative effect on geolocation uncertainty. CubeSpark’s science objectives include mapping thundercloud charge regions and even individual flash channel structure for applications across a wide range of fields from climatology to hydrology. These applications require geolocation accuracy better than 1-2 km in each dimension, thus special care must be taken to optimize constellation design, minimize the main sources of error, and maximize CubeSpark’s potential. The algorithms developed in this study show promising results, with large regions having both horizontal and vertical uncertainties less than 1 km. After the removal of the Lightning Imaging Sensor from the International Space Station, an observational gap has been left for lightning observers from LEO. It therefore becomes increasingly vital to evaluate and improve on the current state of lightning mapping to prepare for the next generation of 3D lightning geolocation.

lightning

The Next Generation of Lightning Mapping

With the removal of the Lightning Imaging Sensor from the International Space Station, a gap has opened in lightning observation from low-Earth orbit. The CubeSpark mission concept aims to fill this role using a constellation of satellites with radio frequency (RF) sensors and bi-spectral optical imagers to observe lightning flashes more completely and with better resolution than is currently possible from space. In this study, we assess the feasibility of multiple methods of not only mapping lightning locations, but also inferring 3D flash and charge structures. This is done primarily by simulating lightning emissions in the very high frequency (VHF) band, modeling their propagation to orbital sensors, and reconstructing their locations using time-of-arrival (TOA) minimization algorithms. Constellation shape, number, and atmospheric conditions are varied in order to quantify the three main sources of geolocation error: geometric, ionospheric, and instrumental effects. The promising results presented here demonstrate 3D resolution better than 1-2 km in many cases, enabling new applications in meteorology and climate sciences.

CubeSpark