Engineering topics

Newman, Paul A.

Publications and source records attributed to Newman, Paul A..

At least 55 records · Page 3

NASA NTRS2008

HIRDLS Observations and Simulation of a Lower Stratospheric Intrusion of Tropical Air to High Latitudes

On 26 January 2006, the High Resolution Dynamic Limb Sounder (HIRDLS) observed low mixing ratios of ozone and nitric acid in an approximately 2 km vertical layer near 100 hPa extending from the subtropics to 55 degrees N over North America. The subsequent evolution of the layer is simulated with the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) model and substantiated with HIRDLS observations. Air with low mixing ratios of ozone is transported poleward to 80 degrees N. Although there is evidence of mixing with extratropical air and diabatic descent, much of the tropical intrusion returns to the subtropics. This study demonstrates that HIRDLS and the GMI model are capable of resolving thin intrusion events. The observations combined with simulation are a first step towards development of a quantitative understanding of the lower stratospheric ozone budget.

Olsen, Mark A.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Stratospheric Ozone in the Post-CFC Era

Vertical and latitudinal changes in the stratospheric ozone in the post-chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) era are investigated using simulations of the recent past and the 21st century with a coupled chemistry-climate model. Model results reveal that, in the 2060s when the stratospheric halogen loading is projected to return to its 1980 values, the extratropical column ozone is significantly higher than that in 1975-1984, but the tropical column ozone does not recover to 1980 values. Upper and lower stratospheric ozone changes in the post- CFC era have very different patterns. Above 15 hPa ozone increases almost latitudinally uniformly by 6 Dobson Unit (DU), whereas below 15 hPa ozone decreases in the tropics by 8 DU and increases in the extratropics by up to 16 DU. The upper stratospheric ozone increase is a photochemical response to greenhouse gas induced strong cooling, and the lower stratospheric ozone changes are consistent with enhanced mean advective transport due to a stronger Brewer-Dobson circulation. The model results suggest that the strengthening of the Brewer-Dobson circulation plays a crucial role in ozone recovery and ozone distributions in the post-CFC era.

Li, Feng↗

NASA NTRS2007

Analysis of the Interactions of Planetary Waves with the Mean Flow of the Stratosphere

During the winter period, large scale waves (planetary waves) are observed to propagate from the troposphere into the stratosphere. Such wave events have been recognized since the 1 950s. The very largest wave events result in major stratospheric warmings. These large scale wave events have typical durations of a few days to 2 weeks. The wave events deposit easterly momentum in the stratosphere, decelerating the polar night jet and warming the polar region. In this presentation we show the typical characteristics of these events via a compositing analysis. We will show the typical periods and scales of motion and the associated decelerations and warmings. We will illustrate some of the differences between major and minor warming wave events. We will further illustrate the feedback by the mean flow on subsequent wave events.

Newman, Paul A.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Estimating when the Antarctic Ozone Hole will Recover

The Antarctic ozone hole develops each year and culminates by early spring (late September - early October). The severity of the hole has been assessed from satellites using the minimum total ozone value from the October monthly mean (depth of the hole) and by calculating the average area coverage during this September-October period. Profile information shows that ozone is completely destroyed in the 14-2 1 km layer by early October. Ozone is mainly destroyed by halogen (chlorine and bromine) catalytic cycles, and these losses are modulated by temperature variations. Because atmospheric halogen levels are responding to international a'greements that limit or phase out production, the amount of halogens in the stratosphere should decrease over the next few decades. Using projections of halogen levels combined with age-of-air estimates, we find that the ozone hole is recovering at an extremely slow rate and that large ozone holes will regularly recur over the next 2 decades. We estimate that the ozone hole will begin to show first signs of size decrease in about 2023, and the hole will fully recover to pre-1980 levels in approximately 2070. Estimates of the ozone hole's recovery from models reveal important differences that will be discussed.

Newman, Paul A.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Estimating When the Antarctic Ozone Hole Will Recover

The Antarctic ozone hole develops each year and culminates by early spring (late September - early October). The severity of the hole has been assessed from satellites using the minimum total ozone value from the October monthly mean (depth of the hole) and by calculating the average area coverage during this September-October period. Profile information shows that ozone is completely destroyed in the 14-21 km layer by early October. Ozone is mainly destroyed by halogen (chlorine and bromine) catalytic cycles, and these losses are modulated by temperature variations. Because atmospheric halogen levels are responding to international agreements that limit or phase out production, the amount of halogens in the stratosphere should decrease over the next few decades. Using projections of halogen levels combined with age-of-air estimates, we find that the ozone hole is recovering at an extremely slow rate and that large ozone holes will regularly recur over the next 2 decades. We estimate that the ozone hole will begin to show first signs of size decrease in about 2023, and the hole will fully recover to pre-1980 levels in approximately 2070. Estimates of the ozone hole's recovery from models reveal important differences that will be discussed.

Newman, Paul A.↗

NASA NTRS2006

When Will the Antarctic Ozone Hole Recover?

The Antarctic ozone hole demonstrates large-scale, man-made affects on our atmosphere. Surface observations now show that human produced ozone depleting substances (ODSs) are declining. The ozone hole should soon start to diminish because of this decline. In this talk we will demonstrate an ozone hole parametric model. This model is based upon: 1) a new algorithm for estimating 61 and Br levels over Antarctica and 2) late-spring Antarctic stratospheric temperatures. This parametric model explains 95% of the ozone hole area's variance. We use future ODS levels to predict ozone hole recovery. Full recovery to 1980 levels will occur in approximately 2068. The ozone hole area will very slowly decline over the next 2 decades. Detection of a statistically significant decrease of area will not occur until approximately 2024. We further show that nominal Antarctic stratospheric greenhouse gas forced temperature change should have a small impact on the ozone hole.

Newman, Paul A.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Recovery of the Antarctic Ozone Hole

The Antarctic ozone hole develops each year and culminates by early Spring. Antarctic ozone values have been monitored since 1979 using satellite observations from the TOMS and OMI instruments. The severity of the hole has been assessed using the minimum total ozone value from the October monthly mean (depth of the hole), the average size during the September-October period, and the ozone mass deficit. Ozone is mainly destroyed by halogen catalytic cycles, and these losses are modulated by temperature variations in the collar of the polar lower stratospheric vortex. In this presentation, we show the relationships of halogens and temperature to both the size and depth of the hole. Because atmospheric halogen levels are responding to international agreements that limit or phase out production, the amount of halogens in the stratosphere should decrease over the next few decades. We use two methods to estimate ozone hole recovery. First, we use projections of halogen levels combined with age-of-air estimates in a parametric model. Second, we use a coupled chemistry climate model to assess recovery. We find that the ozone hole is recovering at an extremely slow rate and that large ozone holes will regularly recur over the next 2 decades. Furthermore, full recovery to 1980 levels will not occur until approximately 2068. We will also show some error estimates of these dates and the impact of climate change on the recovery.

Newman, Paul A.↗

NASA NTRS2006

When Will the Antarctic Ozone Hole Recover?

The Antarctic ozone hole demonstrates large-scale, man-made affects on our atmosphere. Surface observations now show that human produced ozone depleting substances (ODSs) are declining. The ozone hole should soon start to diminish because of this decline. Herein we demonstrate an ozone hole parametric model. This model is based upon: 1) a new algorithm for estimating C1 and Br levels over Antarctica and 2) late-spring Antarctic stratospheric temperatures. This parametric model explains 95% of the ozone hole area s variance. We use future ODS levels to predict ozone hole recovery. Full recovery to 1980 levels will occur in approximately 2068. The ozone hole area will very slowly decline over the next 2 decades. Detection of a statistically significant decrease of area will not occur until approximately 2024. We further show that nominal Antarctic stratospheric greenhouse gas forced temperature change should have a small impact on the ozone hole.

Newman, Paul A.↗

NASA NTRS2006

When will the Antarctic Ozone Hole Recover?

The Antarctic ozone hole develops each year and culminates by early Spring. Antarctic ozone values have been monitored since 1979 using satellite observations from the .TOMS instrument. The severity of the hole has been assessed from TOMS using the minimum total ozone value from the October monthly mean (depth of the hole) and by calculating the average size during the September-October period. Ozone is mainly destroyed by halogen catalytic cycles, and these losses are modulated by temperature variations in the collar of the polar lower stratospheric vortex. In this presentation, we show the relationships of halogens and temperature to, both the size and depth of the hole. Because atmospheric halogen levels are responding to international agreements that limit or phase out production, the amount of halogens in the stratosphere should decrease over the next few decades. Using projections of halogen levels combined with age-of-air estimates, we find that the ozone hole is recovering at an extremely slow rate and that large ozone holes will regularly recur over the next 2 decades. The ozone hole will begin to show first signs of recovery in about 2023, and the hole will fully recover to pre-1980 levels in approximately 2070. This 2070 recovery is 20 years later than recent projections.

Newman, Paul A.↗

NASA NTRS2006

When Will the Antarctic Ozone Hole Recover?

The Antarctic ozone hole develops each year and culminates by early spring (late September - early October). Antarctic ozone values have been monitored since 1979 using satellite observations from the TOMS instrument. The severity of the hole has been assessed from TOMS using the minimum total ozone value from the October monthly mean (depth of the hole) and by calculating the average area coverage during this September-October period. Ozone is mainly destroyed by halogen (chlorine and bromine) catalytic cycles, and these losses are modulated by temperature variations in the collar of the polar lower stratospheric vortex. In this talk, I will show the relationships of halogens and temperature to both the size and depth of the hole. Because atmospheric halogen levels are responding to international agreements that limit or phase out production, the amount of halogens in the stratosphere should decrease over the next few decades. Using projections of halogen levels combined with age-of-air estimates, we find that the ozone hole is recovering at an extremely slow rate and that large ozone holes will regularly recur over the next 2 decades. The ozone hole will begin to show first signs of recovery in about 2023, and the hole will fully recover to pre-1980 levels in approximately 2070. This 2070 recovery is 20 years later than recent projections. I will also discuss current assessments of mid-latitude ozone recovery.

Newman, Paul A.↗

NASA NTRS2005

When Will the Antarctic Ozone Hole Recover?

The Antarctic ozone hole develops each year and culminates by early Spring. Antarctic ozone values have been monitored since 1979 using satellite observations from the TOMS instrument. The severity of the hole has been assessed from TOMS using the minimum total ozone value from the October monthly mean (depth of the hole) and by calculating the average size during the September-October period. Ozone is mainly destroyed by halogen catalytic cycles, and these losses are modulated by temperature variations in the collar of the polar lower stratospheric vortex. In this presentation, we show the relationships of halogens and temperature to both the size and depth of the hole. Because atmospheric halogen levels are responding to international agreements that limit or phase out production, the amount of halogens in the stratosphere should decrease over the next few decades. Using projections of halogen levels combined with age-of-air estimates, we find that the ozone hole is recovering at an extremely slow rate and that large ozone holes will regularly recur over the next 2 decades. We will show estimates of both when the ozone hole will begin to show first signs of recovery, and when the hole will fully recover to pre-1980 levels.

Newman, Paul A.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Detecting the Recovery of the Antarctic Ozone Hole

Newman, Paul A.↗

NASA NTRS2004

The Recovery of the Antarctic Ozone Hole

The ozone hole is a massive loss of ozone that annually occurs over Antarctica during the Austral spring (August-November). Man-made chlorine and bromine compounds cause the ozone hole. As opposed to local urban pollution, the hole illustrates how man-made chemicals can affect the atmosphere over enormous regions remote from their release point. These chlorine and bromine gases have long lifetimes in the atmosphere; hence, the ozone hole will slowly recover into the next few decades. In this talk I will briefly cover some of the history of the Antarctic ozone hole and the theory behind the phenomena. I will then discuss the recovery of ozone over Antarctica. State-of-the-art computer models project the recovery of the ozone hole to 1980 levels by about 2050. However, this recovery may be affected by greenhouse warming.

Newman, Paul A.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Stratospheric Impact of Varying Sea Surface Temperatures

The Finite-Volume General Circulation Model (FVGCM) has been run in 50 year simulations with the: 1) 1949-1999 Hadley Centre sea surface temperatures (SST), and 2) a fixed annual cycle of SSTs. In this presentation we first show that the 1949-1999 FVGCM simulation produces a very credible stratosphere in comparison to an NCEP/NCAR reanalysis climatology. In particular, the northern hemisphere has numerous major and minor stratospheric warming, while the southern hemisphere has only a few over the 50-year simulation. During the northern hemisphere winter, temperatures are both warmer in the lower stratosphere and the polar vortex is weaker than is found in the mid-winter southern hemisphere. Mean temperature differences in the lower stratosphere are shown to be small (less than 2 K), and planetary wave forcing is found to be very consistent with the climatology. We then will show the differences between our varying SST simulation and the fixed SST simulation in both the dynamics and in two parameterized trace gases (ozone and methane). In general, differences are found to be small, with subtle changes in planetary wave forcing that lead to reduced temperatures in the SH and increased temperatures in the NH.

Newman, Paul A.↗

NASA NTRS2003

The Unusual Southern Hemisphere Stratosphere Winter of 2002

The southern hemisphere stratospheric winter of 2002 was the most unusual winter yet observed in the southern hemisphere climate record. Temperatures near the edge of the Antarctic polar vortex were considerably warmer than normal over the entire course of the winter. The polar night jet was considerably weaker than normal, and was displaced more poleward than has been observed in previous winters. These record high temperatures and weak jet resulted from a series of wave events that took place over the course of the winter. The first large event occurred on 15 May, and the final warming occurred on 25 October. The propagation of these wave events from the troposphere is diagnosed from time series of Eliassen-Palm flux vectors. The wave events tended to occur irregularly over the course of the winter, and pre-conditioned the polar night jet for the extremely large wave event of 22 September. This large wave event resulted in the first ever observed major stratospheric warming in the southern hemisphere. This wave event split the Antarctic ozone hole. The combined effect of the wave events of the 2002 winter resulted in the smallest ozone hole observed since 1988.

Newman, Paul A.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Overview on Role of the Troposphere

The troposphere is the lower boundary for the stratosphere. As such, it provides a radiative boundary that is a large source of IR flux into for the stratosphere and scattered UV-Vis energy. Planetary-scale waves that are forced in the troposphere can propagate into the stratosphere, providing a large additional source of energy for the stratosphere. This wave energy is the principal energy source for the Brewer-Dobson circulation. Medium-scale wave can also propagate into the lower stratosphere, but have a smaller effect. The final source of energy for the stratosphere comes from smaller scale disturbances such as gravity waves, mixed Rossby-gravity modes, and Kelvin waves. These smaller scale waves provide an important source of energy for the stratosphere. In this presentation we will cover these tropospheric sources of energy that effect the stratosphere. In particular, we will focus attention on planetary scale waves and their forcings.

Newman, Paul A.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Stratospheric-Tropospheric Interaction and the 2002 Ozone Hole

The 2002 ozone hole was remarkable for its small size and early break-up. This small size resulted from a series of wave events over the course of the 2002 winter. The major event of the 2002 winter was the major warming in late September 2002. This warming resulted from an extremely strong wave event that propagated out of the troposphere, reversed the zonal mean flow, and warmed the polar vortex. This late-September event was the culmination of a series of large wave events which occurred over the course of the 2002 winter. These waves collectively warmed the vortex and decelerated the stratospheric flow. In this talk, we will trace the origin of these wave events, and we will also analyze the feedback of the large disruption of the stratospheric flow on the troposphere.

Newman, Paul A.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Stratospheric Analysis and Forecasting in the Northern Winter of 1999/2000: The NASA DAO's GEOS-3 System

An evaluation is presented of the performance in the northern winter 1999/2000 of the GEOS-3 troposphere-stratosphere data assimilation system (DAS). The impacts of the two main input data types are assessed: upper-air soundings (sondes) provide wind and temperature information and satellite-based (Tiros Operational Vertical Sounders: TOVS) give estimates of the thermal structure. It is shown that in the low stratosphere (300-70hPa) the analyses are generally slightly warmer than the sonde data, but colder than the TOVS data; this relationship reverses between 70 and 10 hPa. There are geographical biases, related to the spatial and temporal coverage of the observation types and to the statistical weights assigned to them in the DAS. Forecasts show a tendency to reduce zonal asymmetries in the atmospheric flow and to suppress stratospheric temperature minima. In the DAS, the analysis increments compensate for this, but it leads to important biases in the multi-day forecasts. The analysis increments are as large as the diabatic forcing in the lower polar stratosphere, indicating a substantial model bias. The results provide important insights into the roles of different data types and the circulation model in producing accurate analyses for studies of polar chemistry and physical processes.

Pawson, Steven↗