Engineering topics

Nelkin, Eric

Publications and source records attributed to Nelkin, Eric.

39 records · Page 3

NASA NTRS1999

Global Precipitation Patterns Associated with ENSO and Tropical Circulations

Tropical precipitation and the accompanying latent heat release is the engine that drives the global circulation. An increase or decrease in rainfall in the tropics not only leads to the local effects of flooding or drought, but contributes to changes in the large scale circulation and global climate system. Rainfall in the tropics is highly variable, both seasonally (monsoons) and interannually (ENSO). Two experimental observational data sets, developed under the auspices of the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), are used in this study to examine the relationships between global precipitation and ENSO and extreme monsoon events over the past 20 years. The V2x79 monthly product is a globally complete, 2.5 deg x 2.5 deg, satellite-gauge merged data set that covers the period 1979 to the present. Indices based on patterns of satellite-derived rainfall anomalies in the Pacific are used to analyze the teleconnections between ENSO and global precipitation, with emphasis on the monsoon systems. It has been well documented that dry (wet) Asian monsoons accompany warm (cold) ENSO events. However, during the summer seasons of the 1997/98 ENSO the precipitation anomalies were mostly positive over India and the Bay of Bengal, which may be related to an epoch-scale variability in the Asian monsoon circulation. The North American monsoon may be less well linked to ENSO, but a positive precipitation anomaly was observed over Mexico around the September following the 1997/98 event. For the twenty-year record, precipitation and SST patterns in the tropics are analyzed during wet and dry monsoons. For the Asian summer monsoon, positive rainfall anomalies accompany two distinct patterns of tropical precipitation and a warm Indian Ocean. Negative anomalies coincide with a wet Maritime Continent.

Curtis, Scott↗

NASA NTRS1999

Global Precipitation during the 1997-98 El Nino and Initiation of the 1998-99 La Nina

The 1997-99 ENSO (El nino Southern Oscillation) cycle was very powerful, but also well observed. The best satellite rainfall estimates combined with gauge observations allow for a global analysis of precipitation anomalies accompanying the 1997-98 El Nino and initiation of the 1998-99 La Nina. For the period April 1997 to March 1998 the central to eastern Pacific, southeastern and western U.S., Argentina, eastern Africa, South China, eastern Russia, and North Atlantic were all more than two standard deviations wetter than normal. During the same year the Maritime Continent, eastern Indian Ocean, subtropical North Pacific, northeastern South America, and much of the mid- latitude southern oceans were more than two standard deviations drier than normal. An analysis of the evolution of the El Nino and accompanying precipitation anomalies revealed that a dry Maritime Continent led the formation of the El Nino SST (Sea Surface Temperature), while in the central Pacific, precipitation anomalies lagged the El Nino SST by a season. A rapid transition from El Nino to La Nina occurred in May 1998, but as early as October-November 1997 precipitation indices captured precursor changes in Pacific rainfall anomalies. Differences were found between observed and modeled [NCEP/NCAR (National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research) reanalysis] precipitation anomalies for 1997 and 98. In particular, the model had a bias towards positive precipitation anomalies and the magnitudes of the anomalies in the equatorial Pacific were small compared to the observations. Also, the evolution of the precipitation field, including the drying of the Maritime Continent and eastward progression of rainfall in the equatorial Pacific, was less pronounced for the model compared to the observations. One degree daily estimates of rainfall show clearly the MaddenJulian Oscillation and related westerly wind burst events over the Maritime Continent, which are key indicators for the onset of El Nino.

Curtis, Scott↗

NASA NTRS1999

TRMM-Based Merged Precipitation Analyses

This paper describes results of using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) information as the key calibration tool in a merged analysis on a 1X1 latitude/longitude monthly scale based on multiple satellite sources and raingauge analyses. The TRMM-based product is compared with surface-based validation data sets and the community-based 20-year Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP)monthly analyses. The TRMM-based merged analysis uses the TRMM information to calibrate the estimates from SSM/I and geosynchronous IR observations and merges those estimates together with the TRMM and gauge information to produce accurate rainfall estimates with the increased sampling provided by the combined satellite information. This TRMM merged analysis uses the combined instrument (Precipitation Radar [PR] and TRMM Microwave Imager [TMI]) retrieval of Haddad as the TRMM estimate with which to calibrate the other satellite estimates. This TRMM Combined instrument (TCI) estimate is shown to produce very similar absolute values to the other main TRMM products. The TRMM and other satellites merged analysis compares favorably to the atoll data set of Morrissey for the months of 1998 with a very small positive bias of 2%. However, comparison with the preliminary results from the TRMM ground validation radar information at Kwajalein atoll in the western Pacific Ocean shows a 26% positive bias. Therefore, absolute magnitudes from TRMM and/or the ground validation need to be treated with care at this point. A month by month comparison of the TRMM merged analysis and the GPCP analysis indicates very similar patterns, but with subtle differences in magnitude. Focusing on the Pacific Ocean ITCZ one can see the TRMM-based estimates having higher peak values and lower values in the ITCZ periphery. These attributes also show up in the statistics, where GPCP>TRMM at low values (below 10 mm/d) and TRMM>GPCP at high values (greater than 15 mm/d). Integrated over the 37N-37S belt for all of 1998 the TRMM value is 3.1 mm/day compared to 2.9 mm/day for GPCP, with the results when confined to ocean being 3.3 and 3.0, respectively. Therefore, TRMM has approximately 10% higher tropical oceanic precipitation than GPCP. Examples of TRMM monthly fields in analysis of geographic and temporal variations will also be discussed. Results for 1998 indicate that TRMM has a different ratio of western Pacific to eastern Pacific rainfall than GPCP, perhaps indicating that TRMM's ability to discern the vertical structure of the rain may lead to better estimates in the eastern Pacific. In addition the rainfall anomalies associated with the '98-'99 ENSO event are shown to be larger with the TRMM results as compared to the GPCP analyses.

Adler, Robert↗