Nasstrom, John S. | Engineering Papers

DOE OSTI2023

Examining the effects of soil entrainment during nuclear cloud rise on fallout predictions using a multiscale atmospheric modeling framework

Current operational models for nuclear cloud rise over land were developed and validated using observations from shallow-buried or surface detonations, where lofted soil quickly mixed with fission products from the detonation. These models poorly predict fallout from elevated detonations near the fallout-free height of burst (FFHOB), where interactions with the ground are limited and the mixing of fission products and lofted soil is incomplete. Fallout-free is a misnomer at this HOB, as fallout was observed in these cases, but was below the levels of concern, especially off-grounds of the nuclear test site. To correctly characterize and model fallout from detonations near the FFHOB, models must be developed which can capture the stratified nature of the particle and activity-size distributions within the cloud. Previously, it was shown that the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model can accurately simulate nuclear cloud rise for airbursts with little to no ground interactions (Arthur et al., 2021). That work is expanded here by (1) using a radiation-hydrodynamics code to improve the fireball initialization in WRF, (2) further developing an aerosol package from WRF-Chem to simulate lofted soil, and (3) combining the WRF cloud rise simulations with the operational models used at the National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC) for fallout modeling. Using this combination of codes, the Upshot-Knothole Grable detonation, which was just below the FFHOB, is simulated from seconds after detonation through cloud rise and fallout, and results are compared to historical test data. Here, the results show improved prediction of dose rate and highlight the need to correctly characterize the entrainment of material into the cloud and the subsequent mixing of fission products with entrained material.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2020

Fallout Cloud Regimes

The U.S. Department of Defense (DOD), Department of Energy (DOE), and other organizations maintain operational nuclear explosion and atmospheric dispersion models to provide critical guidance on the expected effects of an accidental or deliberate explosion of a nuclear weapon (in this paper simply referred to as “device”). To be effective, these models must represent, as accurately as possible, the complex interactions of the blast, fire, and residual radiological hazards with the environment and population. One hundred atmospheric nuclear tests that form the basis for many models were conducted at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) (now referred to as the Nevada Nuclear Security Site, NNSS) in a dry desert environment. Other environments should be studied, but have less data available and are beyond the scope of the work presented in this paper. The debris clouds produced by the NTS tests, frequently called “mushroom clouds,” are familiar, with common structural elements such as a buoyant cap connected to a skirt of raised dust at the desert surface by a thin, dirt-filled stem. The film scanning project at LLNL has investigated historical film records of nuclear weapons tests. Here, we summarize findings showing that the mushroom cloud behavior for historic U.S. tests conducted in Nevada, has similar characteristics based on the distance of the device from the ground surface or Height of Burst (HOB), scaled by the energy release, or yield, of the device. This scaled height is referred to as the scaled-height-of-burst (SHOB). The findings discussed below show that mushroom clouds look and behave similarly when detonated at the same SHOB. The amount of residual radiation that is produced by a nuclear detonation is proportional to the yield. But, the amount of that residual radiation that actually becomes local fallout is strongly dependent on the SHOB and the type of surface over which the detonation occurs. In order to develop a more comprehensive model that predicts the fraction of the residual radiation that becomes local fallout, it is convenient to define a series of regimes based on SHOB values in which all detonations that occur within a given regime can be modeled using the same algorithms. The purpose of this paper is to provide a framework for defining different regimes, and, in a qualitative way, a basic understanding of the fundamental characteristics of each of these regimes.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗