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Morrison, Hugh

Publications and source records attributed to Morrison, Hugh.

At least 55 records · Page 3
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Better calibration of cloud parameterizations and subgrid effects increases the fidelity of the E3SM Atmosphere Model version 1

Abstract. Realistic simulation of the Earth's mean-state climate remains a major challenge, and yet it is crucial for predicting the climate system in transition. Deficiencies in models' process representations, propagation of errors from one process to another, and associated compensating errors can often confound the interpretation and improvement of model simulations. These errors and biases can also lead to unrealistic climate projections and incorrect attribution of the physical mechanisms governing past and future climate change. Here we show that a significantly improved global atmospheric simulation can be achieved by focusing on the realism of process assumptions in cloud calibration and subgrid effects using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Atmosphere Model version 1 (EAMv1). The calibration of clouds and subgrid effects informed by our understanding of physical mechanisms leads to significant improvements in clouds and precipitation climatology, reducing common and long-standing biases across cloud regimes in the model. The improved cloud fidelity in turn reduces biases in other aspects of the system. Furthermore, even though the recalibration does not change the global mean aerosol and total anthropogenic effective radiative forcings (ERFs), the sensitivity of clouds, precipitation, and surface temperature to aerosol perturbations is significantly reduced. This suggests that it is possible to achieve improvements to the historical evolution of surface temperature over EAMv1 and that precise knowledge of global mean ERFs is not enough to constrain historical or future climate change. Cloud feedbacks are also significantly reduced in the recalibrated model, suggesting that there would be a lower climate sensitivity when it is run as part of the fully coupled E3SM. This study also compares results from incremental changes to cloud microphysics, turbulent mixing, deep convection, and subgrid effects to understand how assumptions in the representation of these processes affect different aspects of the simulated atmosphere as well as its response to forcings. We conclude that the spectral composition and geographical distribution of the ERFs and cloud feedback, as well as the fidelity of the simulated base climate state, are important for constraining the climate in the past and future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Supersaturation Variability from Scalar Mixing: Evaluation of a New Subgrid-Scale Model Using Direct Numerical Simulations of Turbulent Rayleigh–Bénard Convection

We report that supersaturation fluctuations in the atmosphere are critical for cloud processes. A nonlinear dependence on two scalars - water vapor and temperature - leads to different behavior than single scalars in turbulent convection. For modeling such multiscalar processes at subgrid scales (SGS) in large-eddy simulations (LES) or convection-permitting models, a new SGS scheme is implemented in CM1 that solves equations for SGS water vapor and temperature fluctuations and their covariance. The SGS model is evaluated using benchmark direct-numerical simulations (DNS) of turbulent Rayleigh–Bénard convection with water vapor as in the Michigan Tech Pi Cloud Chamber. This idealized setup allows thorough evaluation of the SGS model without complications from other atmospheric processes. DNS results compare favorably with measurements from the chamber. Results from LES using the new SGS model compare well with DNS, including profiles of water vapor and temperature variances, their covariance, and supersaturation variance. SGS supersaturation fluctuations scale appropriately with changes to the LES grid spacing, with the magnitude of SGS fluctuations decreasing relative to those at the resolved scale as the grid spacing is decreased. Sensitivities of covariance and supersaturation statistics to changes in water vapor flux relative to thermal flux are also investigated by modifying the sidewall conditions. Relative changes in water vapor flux substantially decrease the covariance and increase supersaturation fluctuations even away from boundaries.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Synthesis of observed and simulated rain microphysics to inform a new Bayesian statistical framework for microphysical parameterization in climate models (Final Scientific Report)

This project aimed to investigate a new approach to bulk microphysics schemes. We identified the need to move beyond the fixed structural assumptions and approximation of existing schemes. For example, most schemes assume some functional form for the rain drop size distribution (e.g. a gamma or exponential distribution). Most schemes then evolve some number of statistical moments of that distribution via various processes, such as evaporation, sedimentation, collision-coalescence, and collisional breakup. These microphysical processes, in turn, are typically some fixed functional form derived from either some other (more detailed) model, or using some single-particle rates that are then integrated over the size distribution. While these process rate functions may have some free parameters to adjust, in other cases doing so is impossible (e.g. when the process rates are analytical or piecewise solutions to some target function). Our goal was to build and test a scheme that assumed no size distribution form, and used a series of power laws as the basis for the process rates. Moments of the size distribution would be predicted, but no underlying size distribution would be specified. Any number or choice of size distribution moments could be used, and any number of power laws could be employed to model the process rates. Thus, our approach is flexible, and can seamlessly scale across levels of complexity, as demanded by the data. Bayesian inference then would provide the formalism to estimate the model parameters and structure, allowing for robust uncertainty quantification. We proposed testing this framework in idealized simulations using bin microphysical schemes as a data source. We also proposed using real data to inform our microphysics scheme, and also that we would integrate our scheme into WRF.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Influences of Environmental Relative Humidity and Horizontal Scale of Subcloud Ascent on Deep Convective Initiation

This study examines two factors impacting initiation of moist deep convection: free-tropospheric environmental relative humidity (φ E ) and horizontal scale of subcloud ascent (R sub ), the latter exerting a dominant control on cumulus cloud width. A simple theoretical model is used to formulate a “scale selection” hypothesis: that a minimum R sub is required for moist convection to go deep, and that this minimum scale decreases with increasing φ E . Specifically, the ratio of R 2 sub to saturation deficit (1 - φ E ) must exceed a certain threshold value that depends on cloud-layer environmental lapse rate. Idealized, large-eddy simulations of moist convection forced by horizontally varying surface fluxes show strong sensitivity of maximum cumulus height to both φ E and R sub consistent with the hypothesis. Increasing R sub by only 300–400 m can lead to a large increase (>5 km) in cloud height. A passive tracer analysis shows that the bulk fractional entrainment rate decreases rapidly with R sub but depends little on φ E . However, buoyancy dilution increases as either R sub or φ E decreases; buoyancy above the level of free convection is rapidly depleted in dry environments when R sub is small. While deep convective initiation occurs with an increase in relative humidity of the near environment from moistening by earlier convection, the importance of this moisture preconditioning is inconclusive as it is accompanied by an increase in R sub . Overall, it is concluded that small changes to R sub driven by external forcing or by convection itself could be a dominant regulator of deep convective initiation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Observed and Bin Model Simulated Evolution of Drop Size Distributions in High-Based Cumulus Congestus Over the United Arab Emirates

This study examines microphysical processes in developing high-based cumulus congestus over the United Arab Emirates using aircraft observations and a large-eddy-simulation model with bin microphysics. A notable feature of this case is the lack of mm-sized drops despite having a liquid cloud layer >3.5 km deep, contrasting with copious large drops observed in maritime tropical cumulus congestus having a similar vertical extent. Modeled drop size distributions are similar to observations at various temperatures between 9.5 and –12°C, including the lack of mm-sized drops. Cloud dilution leads to low-to-moderate liquid water contents (~0.5–1.5 g m –3 ) in most of the cloud core, several times smaller than adiabatic values. Dilution is enhanced in the inflowing branch of the toroidal circulations associated with individual cloud thermals, which are favored regions for secondary droplet activation (activation above cloud base). Secondary activation in general contributes substantially to the droplet population. Turning it off leads to a sharp decrease in droplet concentration and increase in mean size aloft, but does little to increase rain drop production. Warm rain generation (or lack thereof) in this case is therefore determined more by the sub-cloud aerosol and the cloud base droplet size distribution (DSD) than DSD evolution aloft from secondary droplet activation. Decreasing the aerosol concentration by a factor of 10 greatly increases production of large drops via collision-coalescence. Thus, despite its high base (low temperatures) and substantial dilution, the simulated cloud is thermodynamically and dynamically capable of rapidly producing copious mm-sized drops from collision-coalescence under pristine aerosol conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Limitations of Bin and Bulk Microphysics in Reproducing the Observed Spatial Structure of Light Precipitation

Abstract Coarse-gridded atmospheric models often account for subgrid-scale variability by specifying probability distribution functions (PDFs) of process rate inputs such as cloud and rainwater mixing ratios ( q c and q r , respectively). PDF parameters can be obtained from numerous sources: in situ observations, ground- or space-based remote sensing, or fine-scale modeling such as large-eddy simulation (LES). LES is appealing to constrain PDFs because it generates large sample sizes, can simulate a variety of cloud regimes/case studies, and is not subject to the ambiguities of observations. However, despite the appeal of using model output for parameterization development, it has not been demonstrated that LES satisfactorily reproduces the observed spatial structure of microphysical fields. In this study, the structure of observed and modeled microphysical fields are compared by applying bifractal analysis, an approach that quantifies variability across spatial scales, to simulations of a drizzling stratocumulus field that span a range of domain sizes, drop concentrations (a proxy for mesoscale organization), and microphysics schemes (bulk and bin). Simulated q c closely matches observed estimates of bifractal parameters that measure smoothness and intermittency. There are major discrepancies between observed and simulated q r properties, though, with bulk simulated q r consistently displaying the bifractal properties of observed clouds (smooth, minimally intermittent) rather than rain while bin simulations produce q r that is appropriately intermittent but too smooth. These results suggest fundamental limitations of bulk and bin schemes to realistically represent higher-order statistics of the observed rain structure.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Observed and Simulated Variability of Droplet Spectral Dispersion in Convective Clouds Over the Amazon

Abstract In this study, the variability of the spectral dispersion of droplet size distributions (DSDs) in convective clouds is investigated. Analyses are based on aircraft measurements of growing cumuli near the Amazon basin, and on numerical simulations of an idealized ice‐free cumulus. In cleaner clouds, the relative dispersion , defined as the ratio of the standard deviation to the mean value of the droplet diameter, is negatively correlated with the ratio of the cloud water content ( ) to the adiabatic liquid water content ( ), while no strong correlation between and is seen in polluted clouds. Bin microphysics numerical simulations suggest that these contrasting behaviors are associated with the effect of collision‐coalescence in cleaner clouds, and secondary droplet activation in polluted clouds, in addition to the turbulent mixing of parcels that experienced different paths within the cloud. Collision‐coalescence simultaneously broadens the DSDs and decreases , explaining the inverse relationship between and in cleaner clouds. Secondary droplet activation broadens the DSDs but has little direct impact on . The combination of a rather modest DSD broadening due to weak collision‐coalescence with enhanced droplet activation in both diluted and highly undiluted cloud regions may contribute to maintain a relatively uniform within polluted clouds. These findings can be useful for parameterizing the shape parameter ( ) of gamma DSDs in bulk microphysics cloud‐resolving models. It is shown that emulating the observed relationship improves the estimation of the collision‐coalescence rate in bulk microphysics simulations compared to the bin simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Developing and Testing a Novel Stochastic Ice Microphysics Parameterization for Cloud and Climate Models Using ARM Field Campaign Data (Final Progress Report)

The major goals of this project were: 1) to use field campaign measurements from DOE’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program to characterize variability of important parameters describing properties of ice particles in the atmosphere; 2) based on this observational analysis, to develop a parameterization scheme for weather and climate models that stochastically varies these parameters, and implement the new scheme into a weather model called the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF); 3) to use WRF coupled with the new stochastic scheme to simulate ARM field campaign thunderstorm cases and analyze how accounting for this parameter variability affects the model simulations. This work was performed jointly between the National Center for Atmospheric Research, University of Oklahoma, and University of Utah. To accomplish these goals, we extended an approach previously developed to characterize the variability in the size distribution of ice particles to parameters that are explicitly represented in models (i.e., relationships between ice particle mass and size, and between particle fall velocity and size). Our project was, to our knowledge, the first to apply observationally-constrained estimates of this parameter variability describing mass-size and fall velocity-size in a modeling framework. Our results showed efficacy of the approach, evaluated using ARM observations. Similarly, to our knowledge, work in this project was the first to propose and evaluate in detail a stochastic approach for unresolved turbulent mixing in high-resolution model simulations against detailed, benchmark large eddy simulations and ARM observations. Results showed some promising behavior, particularly with increased mixing and dilution of air in thunderstorm cores with surrounding environmental air, bringing the stochastic simulations closer to the benchmark large eddy simulations; however, results were somewhat degraded using stochastic mixing compared to observations from the AMIE/DYNAMO field campaign. This project also further refined and applied a modeling methodology called “piggybacking” that can robustly separate dynamical and thermodynamic impacts of model changes, and comparison studies of different models based on cases developed from ARM observations. Finally, this project directly supported three graduate students who completed their PhDs as well as a postdoctoral research fellow.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Supersaturation, buoyancy, and deep convection dynamics

Motivated by recent discussions concerning differences of convective dynamics in polluted and pristine environments, the so-called convective invigoration in particular, this paper provides an analysis of factors affecting convective updraft buoyancy, such as the in-cloud supersaturation, condensate and precipitation loading, and entrainment. We use the deep convective period from simulations of daytime convection development over land discussed in our previous publications. An entraining parcel framework is used in the theoretical analysis. We show that for the specific case considered here, finite (positive) supersaturation noticeably reduces pseudo-adiabatic parcel buoyancy and cumulative convective available potential energy (cCAPE) in the lower troposphere. This comes from keeping a small fraction of the water vapor in a supersaturated state and thus reducing the latent heating. Such a lower-tropospheric impact is comparable to the effects of condensate loading and entrainment in the idealized parcel framework. For the entire tropospheric depth, loading and entrainment have a much more significant impact on the total CAPE. For the cloud model results, we compare ensemble simulations applying either a bulk microphysics scheme with saturation adjustment or a more comprehensive double-moment scheme with supersaturation prediction. We compare deep convective updraft velocities, buoyancies, and supersaturations from all ensembles. In agreement with the parcel analysis, the saturation-adjustment scheme provides noticeably stronger updrafts in the lower troposphere. For the simulations predicting supersaturation, there are small differences between pristine and polluted conditions below the freezing level that are difficult to explain by standard analysis of the in-cloud buoyancy components. By applying the piggybacking technique, we show that the lower-tropospheric buoyancy differences between pristine and polluted simulations come from a combination of temperature (i.e., latent heating) and condensate loading differences that work together to make polluted buoyancies and updraft velocities slightly larger when compared to their pristine analogues. Overall, the effects are rather small and contradict previous claims of a significant invigoration of deep convection in polluted environments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Semi-Analytic Functions to Calculate the Deposition Coefficients for Ice Crystal Vapor Growth in Bin and Bulk Microphysical Models

Numerical cloud models require estimates of the vapor growth rate for ice crystals. Current bulk and bin microphysical parameterizations generally assume that vapor growth is diffusion limited, though some parameterizations include the influence of surface attachment kinetics through a constant deposition coefficient. A parameterization for variable deposition coefficients is provided herein. The parameterization is an explicit function of the ambient ice supersaturation and temperature, and an implicit function of crystal dimensions and pressure. The parameterization is valid for variable surface types including growth by dislocations and growth by step nucleation. Deposition coefficients are predicted for the two primary growth directions of crystals, allowing for the evolution of the primary habits. Comparisons with benchmark calculations of instantaneous mass growth indicate that the parameterization is accurate to within a relative error of 1%. Parcel model simulations using Lagrangian microphysics as a benchmark indicate that the bulk parameterization captures the evolution of mass mixing ratio and fall speed with typical relative errors of less than 10%, whereas the average axis lengths can have errors of up to 20%. The bin model produces greater accuracy with relative errors often less that 10%. The deposition coefficient parameterization can be used in any bulk and bin scheme, with low error, if an equivalent volume spherical radius is provided.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

How does vertical wind shear influence entrainment in squall lines?

The influence of vertical wind shear on updraft entrainment in squall lines is not well understood. To address this knowledge gap, a suite of high-resolution idealized numerical model simulations of squall lines were run in various vertical wind shear (hereafter “shear”) environments to study the effects of shear on entrainment in deep convective updrafts. Low-level horizontal mass flux into the leading edge of the cold pool was strongest in the simulations with the strongest low-level shear. These simulations consequently displayed wider updrafts, less entrainment-driven dilution, and larger buoyancy than the simulations with comparatively weak low-level shear. An analysis of vertical accelerations along trajectories that passed through updrafts showed larger net accelerations from buoyancy in the simulations with stronger low-level shear, which demonstrates how less entrainment-driven dilution equated to stronger updrafts. Additionally, the effects of upper-level shear on entrainment and updraft vertical velocities were generally less pronounced than the effects of low-level shear. We argue that in addition to the outflow boundary-shear interactions and their effect on updraft tilt established by previous authors, decreased entrainment-driven dilution is yet another beneficial effect of strong low-level shear on squall line updraft intensity.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comparing Growth Rates of Simulated Moist and Dry Convective Thermals

The spreading rates of convective thermals are linked to their net entrainment, and previous literature has suggested differences in spreading rates between moist and dry thermals. Here, growth rates of idealized numerically simulated axisymmetric dry and moist convective thermals are directly compared. In an environment with dry-neutral stratification, the increase of thermal radius with height dR / dz is a larger by a factor of 1.7 for dry thermals relative to moist thermals. The fractional change in thermal volume ε is also greater for dry thermals within a distance of ~4 radii from the initial thermal height. Values of dR / dz are nearly constant with height for both moist and dry thermals consistent with classical theory based on dimensional analysis. The simulations are also consistent with theory relating impulse, circulation, and spreading rate for dry thermals proposed in previous papers and extended here to moist thermals, predicting they will spread less than dry thermals. Tests adding heating to dry thermals, either spread uniformly across the thermal volume or concentrated in the inner core, indicate that dR / dz and ε are smaller for moist thermals because latent heating is confined mostly to their cores. Additional axisymmetric moist simulations using modified lapse rates and large-eddy simulations support this analysis. Overall, these results indicate that slow spreading rates are a fundamental feature of moist thermals caused by latent heating that alters the spatial distribution of buoyancy within them relative to dry thermals.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗