Engineering topics

Morris, Jennifer

Publications and source records attributed to Morris, Jennifer.

5 records

DOE OSTI2024

MSD CoP Webinar: Representing Climate Impacts in Scenaros

Context: This webinar was hosted by the MultiSector Dynamics Community of Practice (MSD CoP; https://multisectordynamics.org). Abstract: Scenarios of future emissions and land use have been most commonly produced without accounting for the effects that climate impacts linked to those emissions and land use changes may have. The questions of how important such impacts could be, at the regional or global scale, has become an increasingly cogent one. Using the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), we implement climate impacts on water supply, agricultural productivity, and energy demand driven by climatic impact drivers whose evolution over the 21st century is representative of a climate consistent with GCAM's reference scenario and compare the output to the reference at both regional and global scales. We show that the impacts from the version of GCAM that uses GDP as an exogenous input are not sufficient to bend emission pathways at the global scale. However, we see effects emerge at the regional scale in terms of emissions, among other metrics linked to water, land and energy. We expect the impacts to become more significant at an aggregate, global scale in a forthcoming version of the model with endogenous GDP. Meanwhile, we document the mechanisms that drive the difference at regional scales which could still be significant in their impacts for individual economies and populations. Presenters: Dr. Claudia Tebaldi (Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory) Moderator(s): Jennifer Morris (MSD CoP SSG member), Patrick Reed (MSD CoP Facilitation Team Member, Moderator and Organizer) This webinar was held on: November 5, 2024 from 1 PM - 2:15 PM ET

Climate Scenarios↗

DOE OSTI2024

MSD CoP Webinar: Opportunities for AR7

Context: This webinar was hosted by the MultiSector Dynamics Community of Practice (MSD CoP; https://multisectordynamics.org). Abstract: The IPCC has recently started its 7th Assessment Cycle (AR7). This presentation will provide an overview of planned IPCC reports and activities, as well as information on how to engage with the IPCC in AR7. Presenter : Dr. Katherine Calvin (Chief Scientist and Senior Climate Advisor, NASA) Moderator: Jennifer Morris (MIT; MSD CoP SSG); Patrick M. Reed (MSD CoP Facilitation Team) This webinar was held on: October 2, 2024 from 12-1:15 PM ET

AR7↗

DOE OSTI2024

Nonsteady Load Responses of Wind Turbines to Atmospheric and Mountain-Generated Turbulence Eddies, With Impacts on the Main Bearing: A Validation Study

Previous computational and field experiments identify three characteristic time scales in the aerodynamic responses of utility-scale wind turbine loads to atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) turbulence: a 30-90 second time scale for the passage of high/low speed "streaks" through the rotor plane, the blade and rotor rotation time scales (approximately 1 to 5 seconds), and a sub-second time scale created by blade rotation through gradients within eddy coherent structure. In the current study we compare aerodynamic load responses from daytime ABL turbulence quantified with large-eddy simulation and a actuator line model of the NREL 5 MW wind turbine with analysis of field data from the NREL/GE 1.5 MW wind turbine 5 kilometers east of the Rocky Mountain Front Range in Colorado. In addition, we contrast the responses to the passage of the mountain-generated eddies embedded within the westerly winds with the ABL eddies embedded within northerly/southerly winds. These analyses are in context with the nonsteady forcing of the main bearing by the aerodynamic generation of nontorque bending moments on the main shaft. Potentially relevant to main bearing failure mechanisms, both computational and field data show that the magnitudes of turbulence-generated nontorque bending moments, that we show generate nonsteady force on the main bearing, are of order, and often larger than, torque (which underlies power). However, the temporal variations in these two responses are uncorrelated, implying that the aerodynamic mechanisms that drive power and main bearing response are fundamentally different. We find this to be the case in the field with both mountain-generated eddies (westerly winds) and ABL-generated eddies (northerly/southerly winds). Whereas the time and length scales are comparable, the mountain eddies were somewhat more energetic than the northerly/southerly ABL eddies. Interestingly, however, the fluctuations in nontorque bending moment that force the main bearing were found to be stronger when forced by the ABL eddies than the mountain eddies. The field studies validate the key results from the computational study and show even stronger response in the nontorque bending moment than in the computer simulations. In all cases, the torque and nontorque bending moments are temporally uncorrelated, torque and power are driven by time variations in rotor-averaged horizontal wind velocity and nontorque bending moments are driven by time changes in the degree of nonuniformity in the distribution of velocity over the rotor plane. Thus the results generalize the mechanisms underlying nonsteady aerodynamic forcing to classes of turbulence eddy types with strength of order or stronger than ABL eddies with transverse scale of order the wind turbine rotor. These include atmospheric turbulence eddies, topography-generated turbulence eddies and, by extension, impacts of turbine-wake-scale turbulence eddies on downstream wind turbine rotors.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Drivers and implications of alternative routes to fuels decarbonization in net-zero energy systems

Energy transition scenarios are characterized by increasing electrification and improving efficiency of energy end uses, rapid decarbonization of the electric power sector, and deployment of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies to offset remaining emissions. Although hydrocarbon fuels typically decline in such scenarios, significant volumes remain in many scenarios even at the time of net-zero emissions. While scenarios rely on different approaches for decarbonizing remaining fuels, the underlying drivers for these differences are unclear. Here we develop several illustrative net-zero systems in a simple structural energy model and show that, for a given set of final energy demands, assumptions about the use of biomass and CO2 sequestration drive key differences in how emissions from remaining fuels are mitigated. Limiting one resource may increase reliance on another, implying that decisions about using or restricting resources in pursuit of net-zero objectives could have significant tradeoffs that will need to be evaluated and managed.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Framework for Multisector Scenarios of Outcomes for Well-Being and Resilience

Shared community scenarios of societal and environmental system changes have underpinned a broad range of research and assessment studies over the past several decades. These scenarios have largely aimed to address specific questions within broad issue areas like climate change or biodiversity and generally provided information on the drivers of change. The consequences of those drivers, such as impacts on society and policy responses, have tended to be left to the research community to investigate, using scenarios of drivers as inputs to their studies, producing projections of a disparate set of relevant output metrics. While this approach has had many benefits, it has fallen short of producing a robust, comparable literature describing outcomes across studies in common metrics. We argue that new scenarios are needed that extend current approaches to be organized around common outcome metrics for the well-being and resilience of society and ecosystems. We propose an approach that would focus on agreed upon outcomes for well-being and resilience as well as critical drivers of change, cut across issues and scales in multiple sectors, and draw on new systematic methods of scenario generation and discovery to highlight scenarios that are most critical in understanding societal risks and responding to them. Research derived from this outcome-based scenario development approach would facilitate improved assessment of risks of and responses to a range of stressors and the multi-sector interactions they generate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗