Engineering topics
Moore, Ron
Publications and source records attributed to Moore, Ron.
An All-Clear Space Weather Forecasting System Based on Magnetogram in Near Real Time
No abstract available
An All-clear Space Weather Forecasting System Based on Magnetogram in near Real Time
No abstract available
A Prominence/Filament Eruption Triggered by Eight Homologous Flares
No abstract available
Magnetic Untwisting in Most Solar X-Ray Jets
If Type‐II spicules are made like X‐ray jets by granule‐size emerging bipoles, then they plausibly power the quiet corona and solar wind.
Free Magnetic Energy and Coronal Heating
Previous work has shown that the coronal X-ray luminosity of an active region increases roughly in direct proportion to the total photospheric flux of the active region's magnetic field (Fisher et al. 1998). It is also observed, however, that the coronal luminosity of active regions of nearly the same flux content can differ by an order of magnitude. In this presentation, we analyze 10 active regions with roughly the same total magnetic flux. We first determine several coronal properties, such as X-ray luminosity (calculated using Hinode XRT), peak temperature (calculated using Hinode EIS), and total Fe XVIII emission (calculated using SDO AIA). We present the dependence of these properties on a proxy of the free magnetic energy of the active region
The Limit of Free Magnetic Energy in Active Regions
By measuring from active-region magnetograms a proxy of the free energy in the active region fs magnetic field, it has been found previously that (1) there is an abrupt upper limit to the free energy the field can hold that increases with the amount of magnetic field in the active region, the active region fs magnetic flux content, and (2) the free energy is usually near its limit when the field explodes in a CME/flare eruption. That is, explosive active regions are concentrated in a main-sequence path bordering the free-energy ]limit line in (flux content, free-energy proxy) phase space. Here, from measurement of Marshall Space Flight Center vector magnetograms, we find the magnetic condition that underlies the free ]energy limit and the accompanying main sequence of explosive active regions. Using a suitable free ]energy proxy measured from vector magnetograms of 44 active regions, we find that (1) in active regions at and near their free ]energy limit, the ratio of magnetic-shear free energy to the non ]free magnetic energy the potential field would have is approximately 1 in the core field, the field rooted along the neutral line, and (2) this ratio is progressively less in active regions progressively farther below their free ]energy limit. This shows that most active regions in which this core-field energy ratio is much less than 1 cannot be triggered to explode; as this ratio approaches 1, most active regions become capable of exploding; and when this ratio is 1 or greater, most active regions are compelled to explode. From these results we surmise the magnetic condition that determines the free ]energy limit is the ratio of the free magnetic energy to the non-free energy the active region fs field would have were it completely relaxed to its potential ]field configuration, and that this ratio is approximately 1 at the free-energy limit and in the main sequence of explosive active regions.
Real-Time CME Forecasting Using HMI Active-Region Magnetograms and Flare History
We have recently developed a method of predicting an active region s probability of producing a CME, an X-class Flare, an M-class Flare, or a Solar Energetic Particle Event from a free-energy proxy measured from SOHO/MDI line-of-sight magnetograms. This year we have added three major improvements to our forecast tool: 1) Transition from MDI magnetogram to SDO/HMI magnetogram allowing us near-real-time forecasts, 2) Automation of acquisition and measurement of HMI magnetograms giving us near-real-time forecasts (no older than 2 hours), and 3) Determination of how to improve forecast by using the active region s previous flare history in combination with its free-energy proxy. HMI was turned on in May 2010 and MDI was turned off in April 2011. Using the overlap period, we have calibrated HMI to yield what MDI would measure. This is important since the value of the free-energy proxy used for our forecast is resolution dependent, and the forecasts are made from results of a 1996-2004 database of MDI observations. With near-real-time magnetograms from HMI, near-real-time forecasts are now possible. We have augmented the code so that it continually acquires and measures new magnetograms as they become available online, and updates the whole-sun forecast from the coming day. The next planned improvement is to use an active region s previous flare history, in conjunction with its free-energy proxy, to forecast the active region s event rate. It has long been known that active regions that have produced flares in the past are likely to produce flares in the future, and that active regions that are nonpotential (have large free-energy) are more likely to produce flares in the future. This year we have determined that persistence of flaring is not just a reflection of an active region s free energy. In other words, after controlling for free energy, we have found that active regions that have flared recently are more likely to flare in the future.
The Main Sequence of Explosive Solar Active Regions: Comparison of Emerging and Mature Active Regions
For mature active regions, an active region s magnetic flux content determines the maximum free energy the active region can have. Most Large flares and CMEs occur in active regions that are near their free-energy limit. Active-region flare power radiated in the GOES 1-8 band increases steeply as the free-energy limit is approached. We infer that the free-energy limit is set by the rate of release of an active region s free magnetic energy by flares, CMEs and coronal heating balancing the maximum rate the Sun can put free energy into the active region s magnetic field. This balance of maximum power results in explosive active regions residing in a "mainsequence" in active-region (flux content, free energy content) phase space, which sequence is analogous to the main sequence of hydrogen-burning stars in (mass, luminosity) phase space.
Forecasting Safe or Dangerous Space Weather from HMI Magnetograms
We have developed a space-weather forecasting tool using an active-region free-energy proxy that was measured from MDI line-of-sight magnetograms. To develop this forecasting tool (Falconer et al 2011, Space Weather Journal, in press), we used a database of 40,000 MDI magnetograms of 1300 active regions observed by MDI during the previous solar cycle (cycle 23). From each magnetogram we measured our free-energy proxy and for each active region we determined its history of major flare, CME and Solar Particle Event (SPE) production. This database determines from the value of an active region s free-energy proxy the active region s expected rate of production of 1) major flares, 2) CMEs, 3) fast CMEs, and 4) SPEs during the next few days. This tool was delivered to NASA/SRAG in 2010. With MDI observations ending, we have to be able to use HMI magnetograms instead of MDI magnetograms. One of the difficulties is that the measured value of the free-energy proxy is sensitive to the spatial resolution of the measured magnetogram: the 0.5 /pixel resolution of HMI gives a different value for the free-energy proxy than the 2 /pixels resolution of MDI. To use our MDI-database forecasting curves until a comparably large HMI database is accumulated, we smooth HMI line-of-sight magnetograms to MDI resolution, so that we can use HMI to find the value of the free-energy proxy that MDI would have measured, and then use the forecasting curves given by the MDI database. The new version for use with HMI magnetograms was delivered to NASA/SRAG (March 2011). It can also use GONG magnetograms, as a backup.
Suppression of Active-Region CME Production by the Presence of Other Active Regions
From the SOHO mission s data base of MDI full-disk magnetograms spanning solar cycle 23, we have obtained a set of ~40,000 magnetograms of ~1,300 active regions, tracking each active region across the 30 degree central solar disk. Each active region magnetogram is cropped from the full-disk magnetogram by an automated code. The cadence is 96 minutes. From each active-region magnetogram, we have measured two whole-active-region magnetic quantities: (1) the magnetic size of the active region (the active region s total magnetic flux), and (2) a gauge of the active region s free magnetic energy (part of the free energy is released in the production of a flare and/or CME eruption). From NOAA Flare/CME catalogs, we have obtained the event (Flare/CME/SEP event) production history of each active region. Using all these data, we find that for each type of eruptive event, an active region s expected rate of event production increases as a power law of our gauge of active-region free magnetic energy. We have also found that, among active regions having nearly the same free energy, the rate of the CME production is less when there are many other active regions on the disk than when there are few or none, but there is no significant discernible suppression of the rate of flare production. This indicates that the presence of other active regions somehow tends to inhibit an active region s flare-producing magnetic explosions from becoming CMEs, contrary to the expectation from the breakout model for the production of CMEs.
The CME Flare Arcade and the Width of the CME in the Outer Corona
Moore, Sterling, & Suess (2007, ApJ, 668, 1221) present evidence that (1) a CME is typically a magnetic bubble, a low-beta gplasmoid with legs h having roughly the 3D shape of a light bulb, and (2) in the outer corona the CME plasmoid is in lateral pressure equilibrium with the ambient magnetic field. They present three CMEs observed by SOHO/LASCO, each from a very different source located near the limb. One of these CMEs came from a compact ejective eruption from a small part of a sunspot active region, another came from a large quiet-region filament eruption, and the third CME, an extremely large and fast one, was produced in tandem with an X20 flare arcade that was centered on a huge delta sunspot. Each of these CMEs had more or less the classic lightbulb silhouette and attained a constant heliocentric angular width in the outer corona. This indicates that the CME plasmoid attained lateral magnetic pressure balance with the ambient radial magnetic field in the outer corona. This lateral pressure balance, together with the standard scenario for CME production by the eruption of a sheared-core magnetic arcade, yields the following simple estimate of the strength B(sub Flare) of the magnetic field in the flare arcade produced together with the CME: B(sub Flare) 1.4(theta CME/theta Flare)sup 2 G, where theta (sub CME) is the heliocentric angular width of the CME plasmoid in the outer corona and theta (sub Flare) is the heliocentric angular width of the full-grown flare arcade. Conversely, theta (sub CME) approximately equal to (R(sub Sun)sup -1(phi(sub Flare)/1.4)sup 1/2 radians, where Flare is the magnetic flux covered by the full-grown flare arcade. In addition to presenting the three CMEs of Moore, Sterling, & Suess (2007) and their agreement with this relation between CME and Flare, we present a further empirical test of this relation. For CMEs that erupt from active regions, the co-produced flare arcade seldom if ever covers the entire active region: if AR is the total magnetic flux of the active region, Flare . AR, and we predict that CME. (R(sub Sun))sup -1(theta AR/1.4)sup 1/2 radians. For a random sample of 31 CMEs that erupted from active regions within 30 of the limb, for each CME we have measured CME from LASCO/C3 and have measured AR from a SOHO/MDI magnetogram of the source active region when it was within 30 of disk center. We find that each CME obeys the above predicted inequality, none having width greater than half of the upper bound given by theta(sub AR). Thus, an active region's magnetic flux content, together with its location on the solar disk, largely determines whether the active region can possibly produce a CME that is wide enough to intercept the Earth.
The Flare/CME Connection
We present evidence supporting the view that, while many flares are produced by a confined magnetic explosion that does not produce a CME, every CME is produced by an ejective magnetic explosion that also produces a flare. The evidence is that the observed heliocentric angular width of the full-blown CME plasmoid in the outer corona (at 3 to 20 solar radii) is about that predicted by the standard model for CME production, from the amount of magnetic flux covered by the co-produced flare arcade. In the standard model, sheared and twisted sigmoidal field in the core of an initially closed magnetic arcade erupts. As it erupts, tether-cutting reconnection, starting between the legs of the erupting sigmoid and continuing between the merging stretched legs of the enveloping arcade, simultaneously produces a growing flare arcade and unleashes the erupting sigmoid and arcade to become the low-beta plasmoid (magnetic bubble) that becomes the CME. The flare arcade is the downward product of the reconnection and the CME plasmoid is the upward product. The unleashed, expanding CME plasmoid is propelled into the outer corona and solar wind by its own magnetic field pushing on the surrounding field in the inner and outer corona. This tether-cutting scenario predicts that the amount of magnetic flux in the full-blown CME plasmoid nearly equals that covered by the full-grown flare arcade. This equality predicts (1) the field strength in the flare region from the ratio of the angular width of the CME in the outer corona to angular width of the full-grown flare arcade, and (2) an upper bound on the angular width of the CME in the outer corona from the total magnetic flux in the active region from which the CME explodes. We show that these predictions are fulfilled by observed CMEs. This agreement validates the standard model. The model explains (1) why most CMEs have much greater angular widths than their co-produced flares, and (2) why the radial path of a CME in the outer corona can be laterally far offset from the co-produced flare.
Jet-Front Speed and the Origin of Jets in Polar Coronal Holes
The area-average strength of the open magnetic field in the polar coronal holes can be estimated from the radial component of the magnetic field measured by Ulysses in the solar wind, the fraction of the solar sphere covered by the polar coronal holes, and the fraction of the heliosphere filled by the fast solar wind from the polar coronal holes. For the present minimum phase of the solar cycle, the estimated strength is approximately 10 G. Using this strength for the ambient open field in the standard reconnection model for jets in coronal holes, we obtain for any given jet-front speed a lower bound on the initial temperature of the expanding jet-front plasma, and an upper bound on the ambient plasma density at the reconnection site. These two bounds indicate the following. For jet-front speeds of approximately 1000 km/s, (1) the reconnection site has to be in the low corona or upper transition region (n(e) is less than 10(exp 9) cm(exp -3)), not in the lower transition region or chromosphere, (2) the jet-front plasma is initially heated to T greater than approximately 10(exp 7) K, and (3) hence a compact X-ray flare is produced at the base of the jet. For jet-front speeds less than approximately 100 km/s, (1) the jet can be produced by reconnection in the lower transition region (approximately 10(exp 9) less than n(e) less than approximately 10(exp 10) cm(exp-3)) or upper chromosphere (approximately 10(exp 10) less than n(e) less than approximately 10(exp 12) cm-3), (2) the initial temperature of the jet-front plasma can be less than 10(exp 6) K, and (3) hence some EUV and H(alpha) jet-type macrospicules may be produced with no detectable X-ray emission.
The Twist Limit for Bipolar Active Regions
We present new evidence that further supports the standard idea that active regions are emerged magnetic-flux-rope omega loops. When the axial magnetic twist of a cylindrical flux rope exceeds a critical amount, the flux rope becomes unstable to kinking, and the excess axial twist is converted into writhe twist by the kinking. This suggests that, if active regions are emerged omega loops, then (1) no active region should have magnetic twist much above the limit set by kinking, (2) active regions having twist near the limit should often arise from kinked omega loops, and (3) since active regions having large delta sunspots are outstandingly twisted, these arise from kinked omega loops and should have twist near the limit for kinking. From each of 36 vector magnetograms of bipolar active regions, we have measured (1) the total flux of the vertical field above 100 G, (2) the area covered by this flux, and (3) the net electric current that arches over the polarity inversion line. These three quantities yield an estimate of the axial magnetic twist in a simple model cylindrical flux rope that corresponds to the top of the active region s hypothetical omega loop prior to emergence. In all 36 cases, the estimated twist is below the critical limit for kinking. The 11 most twisted active regions (1) have estimated twist within a factor of approx.3 of the limit, and (2) include all of our 6 active regions having large delta sunspots. Thus, our observed twist limit for bipolar active regions is in good accord with active regions being emerged omega loops.
The Central Role of Tether-Cutting Reconnection in the Production of CMEs
This viewgraph presentation describes tether-cutting reconnection in the production of Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs). The topics include: 1) Birth and Release of the CME Plasmoid; 2) Resulting CME in Outer Corona; 3) Governing Role of Surrounding Field; 4) Testable Prediction of the Standard Scenario Magnetic Bubble CME Model; 5) Lateral Pressure in Outer Corona; 6) Measured Angular Widths of 3 CMEs; 7) LASCO Image of each CME at Final Width; 8) Source of the CME of 2002 May 20; 9) Source of the CME of 1999 Feb 9; 10) Source of the CME of 2003 Nov 4; and 11) Test Results.
Main-Sequence CMEs as Magnetic Explosions: Compatibility with Observed Kinematics
We examine the kinematics of 26 CMEs of the morphological main sequence of CMEs, those having the classic three-part bubble structure of (1) a bright front eveloping (2) a dark cavity within which rides (3) a bright blob/filamentary feature. Each CME is observed in Yohkoh/SXT images to originate from near the limb (> or equal to 0.7 R(sub Sun) from disk center). The basic data (from the SOHO LASCO CME Catalog) for the kinematics of each CME are the sequence of LASCO images of the CME, the time of each image, the measured radial distance of the front edge of the CME in each image, and the measured angular extent of the CME. About half of our CMEs (12) occur with a flare, and the rest (14) occur without a flare. While the average linear-fit speed of the flare CMEs (1000 km/s) is twice that of the non-flare CMEs (510 km/s), the flare CMEs and the non-flare CMEs are similar in that some have nearly flat velocity-height (radial extent) profiles (little acceleration), some have noticeably falling velocity profiles (noticeable deceleration), and the rest have velocity profiles that rise considerably through the outer corona (blatant acceleration). This suggests that in addition to sharing similar morphology, main-sequence CMEs all have basically the same driving mechanism. The observed radial progression of each of our 26 CMEs is fit by a simple model magnetic plasmoid that is in pressure balance with the radial magnetic field in the outer corona and that propels itself outward by magnetic expansion, doing no net work on its surroundings. On average over the 26 CMEs, this model fits the observations as well as the assumption of constant acceleration. This is compatible with main-sequence CMEs being magnetically driven, basically magnetic explosions, with the velocity profile in the outer corona being largely dictated by the initial Alfien speed in the CME (when the front is at approx. 3 (sub Sun), analogous to the mass of a main-sequence star dictating the luminosity.