Engineering topics

Moore, R. L.

Publications and source records attributed to Moore, R. L..

At least 55 records · Page 3

NASA NTRS2003

Solar Coronal Heating and the Magnetic Flux Content of the Network

We investigate the heating of the quiet corona by measuring the increase of coronal luminosity with the amount of magnetic flux in the underlying network at solar minimum when there were no active regions on the face of the Sun. The coronal luminosity is measured from Fe IX/X-Fe XII pairs of coronal images from SOHO/EIT. The network magnetic flux content is measured from SOHO/MDI magnetograms. We find that the luminosity of the corona in our quiet regions increases roughly in proportion to the square root of the magnetic flux content of the network and roughly in proportion to the length of the perimeter of the network magnetic flux clumps. From (1) this result, (2) other observations of many fine-scale explosive events at the edges of network flux clumps, and (3) a demonstration that it is energetically feasible for the heating of the corona in quiet regions to be driven by explosions of granule-sized sheared-core magnetic bipoles embedded in the edges of network flux clumps, we infer that in quiet regions that are not influenced by active regions the corona is mainly heated by such magnetic activity in the edges of the network flux clumps. Our observational results together with our feasibility analysis allow us to predict that (1) at the edges of the network flux clumps there are many transient sheared-core bipoles of the size and lifetime of granules and having transverse field strengths > approx. 100 G, (2) approx. 30 of these bipoles are present per supergranule, and (3) most spicules are produced by explosions of these bipoles.

Falconer, D. A.↗

NASA NTRS2003

The Magnetic Structure of H-Alpha Macrospicules in Solar Coronal Holes

Measurements by Ulysses in the high-speed polar solar wind have shown the wind to carry some fine-scale structures in which the magnetic field reverses direction by having a switchback fold in it. The lateral span of these magnetic switchbacks, translated to the Sun, is of the scale of the lanes and cells of the magnetic network in which the open magnetic flux of the polar coronal hole and polar solar wind are rooted. This suggests that the magnetic switchbacks might be formed from network-scale magnetic loops that erupt into the corona and then undergo reconnection with the open field. This possibility motivated us to undertake the study reported here of the structure of H-alpha macrospicules observed at the limb in polar coronal holes, to determine whether a significant fraction of these eruptions appear to be erupting loops. From a search of the polar-coronal holes in 6 days of image-processed full-disk H-alpha movies from Big Bear Solar Observatory, we found a total of 35 macrospicules. Nearly all of these (32) were of one or the other of two different forms: 15 were in the form of an erupting loop, and 17 were in the form of a single-column spiked jet. The erupting-loop macrospicules are appropriate for producing the magnetic switchbacks in the polar wind. The spiked-jet macrospicules show the appropriate structure and evolution to be driven by reconnection between network-scale closed field (a network bipole) and the open field rooted against the closed field. This evidence for reconnection in a large fraction of our macrospicules (1) suggests that many spicules may be generated by similar but smaller reconnection events, and (2) supports the view that coronal heating and solar wind acceleration in coronal holes and in quiet regions and corona are driven by explosive reconnection events in the magnetic network.

Yamauchi, Y.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Eruption of a Multiple-Turn Helical Magnetic Flux Tube in a Large Flare: Evidence for External and Internal Reconnection that Fits the Breakout Model of Solar Magnetic Eruptions

We present observations and an interpretation of a unique multiple-turn spiral flux tube eruption from AR10030 on 2002 July 15. The TRACE CIV observations clearly show a flux tube that is helical and that is erupting from within a sheared magnetic field. These observations are interpreted in the context of the breakout model for magnetic field explosions. The initiation of the helix eruption starts 25 seconds after the peak of the flare s strongest impulsive spike of microwave gryosynchrotron radiation early in the flare s explosive phase, implying that the sheared core field is not the site of the initial reconnection. Within the quadrupolar configuration of the active region, the external and internal reconnection sites are identified in each of two consecutive eruptive flares that produce a double CME. The first external breakout reconnection apparently releases an underlying sheared core field and allows it to erupt, leading to internal reconnection in the wake of the erupting helix. This internal reconnection heats the two-ribbon flare and might or might not produce the helix. These events lead to the first CME and are followed by a second breakout that initiates a second and larger halo CME. The strong magnetic shear in the region is associated with rapid proper motion and evolution of the active region. The multiple-turn helix originates from above a sheared-field magnetic inversion line within a filament channel, and starts to erupt only after fast breakout reconnection has started. These observations are counter to the standard flare model and support the breakout model for eruptive flare initiation. However, the observations are compatible with internal reconnection in a sheared magnetic arcade in the formation and eruption of the helix.

Gary, G. Allen↗

NASA NTRS2003

A Measure from Line-of-Sight Magnetograms for Prediction of Coronal Mass Ejections

From a sample of 17 vector magnetograms of 12 bipolar active regions we have recently found (1) that a measure of the overall nonpotentiality (the overall twist and shear in the magnetic field) of an active region is given by the strong shear length Lss, the length of the portion of the main neutral line on which the observed transverse fields is strong (greater than 150 Guass (G)) and strongly sheared (shear angle greater than 45 degrees), and (2) that L(sub ss) is well correlated with the coronal mass ejection (CME) productivity of the active regions during the plus or minus 2-day time window centered on the day of the magnetogram. In the present paper, from the same sample of 17 vector magnetograms, we show that there is a viable proxy for L(sub ss) that can be measured from a line-of-sight magnetogram. This proxy is the strong gradient length L(sub SG), the length of the portion of the main neutral line on which the potential transverse field is strong (greater than 150 G), and the gradient of the line-of-sight field is sufficiently steep (greater than approximately 50 G/Mm). In our sample of active regions, L(sub SG) is statistically significantly correlated with Lss (correlation confidence level greater than 95%), and L(sub SG) is as strongly correlated with active region CME productivity as is L(sub SS) (correlation confidence level approximately 99.7%). Because L(sub SG) can be measured from line-of-sight magnetograms obtained from conventional magnetographs, such as the magnetograph mode of the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, it is a dependable substitute for L(sub SS) for use in operational CME forecasting. In addition, via measurement of L(sub SG), the years-long, nearly continuous sequence of 1.5-hour cadence full disk line-of-sight magnetograms from MDI can be used to track the growth and decay of the large-scale nonpotentiality in active regions and to examine the role of this evolution in active region CME productivity.

Falconer, D. A.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Correlation of the Coronal Mass Ejection Productivity of Solar Active Regions with Measures of their Global Nonpotentiality from Vector Magnetograms: Baseline Results

Conventional magnetograms and chromospheric and coronal images show qualitatively that the fastest coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are magnetic explosions from sunspot active regions where the magnetic field is globally strongly sheared and twisted from its minimum-energy potential configuration. We present measurements from active region vector magnetograms that start to quantify the dependence of an active region's CME productivity on the global nonpotentiality of its magnetic field. From each of 17 magnetograms of 12 bipolar active regions, we measured the size of the active region (the magnetic flux content, phi) and three separate measures of the global nonpotentiality (L(sub SS), the length of strong-shear, strong-field main neutral line: I(sub N), the net electric current connecting one polarity to the other; and alpha = (mu)I(sub N)/phi), a flux normalized measure of the field twist). From these measurements and the observed CME productivity of the active regions, we find that: (1) All three measures of global nonpotentiality are statistically correlated with the active region flux content and with each other; (2) All three measures of global nonpotentiality are significantly correlated with CME productivity. The flux content correlates with CME productivity, but at a lower statistically significant confidence level (less than 95%); (3) The net current is less closely correlated with CME productivity than alpha and the correlation of CME productivity with flux content is even weaker. If these differences in correlation strength, and a significant correlation of alpha with flux content, persist to larger active regions, this would imply that the size of active regions does not affect CME productivity except through global nonpotentiality; and (4) For each of the four global magnetic quantities, the correlation with CME productivity is stronger for a two-day time window for the CME production than for windows half as wide or twice as wide. This plausibly is a result of the most counterproductive active regions producing less than one CME per day, and from the active region's evolution often significantly changing the global nonpotentiality over the course of several days. These results establish that measures of active region global nonpotentiality from vector magnetograms (such as L(sub SS), I(sub N), and alpha) should be useful for prediction a active region CMEs.

Falconer, D. A.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Forecasting Coronal Mass Ejections from Vector Magnetograms

In a 17 vector magnetogram study of 12 bipolar active regions (Falconer, Moore, & Gary, 2002, ApJ in press), we correlated four quantitative global magnetic measures with the Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) productivity of the active region. The global measures included a measure of active region size, the total magnetic flux phi and three measures of an active region global nonpotentiality 1) the net current (I (sub N)), 2) the length of the strong-shear, strong-field main neutral line (L(sub SS)) and 3) and the normalized twist (alpha = muIN/PHI). The CME productivity was determined from YOHKOH/SXT observations, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES), and when possible Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph Experiment (SOHO/LASCO) observations within 12 days of the day of the magnetogram. We found that the three measures of global nonpotentiality (I(sub N), L(sub SS), alpha) were all well correlated (greater than 99% confidence level) with an active region's CME productivity. The sample size was to small to confirm if there was a statistical significant correlation of the globally nonscientist measures with future CME activity (i.e. from the date of the magnetogram forward). We are doubling our sample, and will report on the statistical significance of global nonpotentiality as a predictor of future CME productivity. The new active regions are all from the first year of the upgraded MSFC vector magnetograms. This work, is funded by NSF through the Space Weather Program, by NASA through the Living with the Star, Targeted Research and Technology, and by NASA Solar Physics Supporting Research and Technology Program. The upgrade to the MSFC vector magnetograph was supported by the High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (HESSI) mission.

Falconer, D. A.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Coronal Heating and the Increase of Coronal Luminosity with Magnetic Flux

We present the observed scaling of coronal luminosity with magnetic flux in a set of quiet regions. Comparison of this with the observed scaling found for active regions suggests an underlying difference between coronal heating in active regions and quiet regions. From SOHO/EIT coronal images and SOHO/MDI magnetograms of four similar large quiet regions, we measure L(sub corona) and Phi(sub total) in random subregions ranging in area from about four supergranules [(70,000 km)(exp 2)] to about 100 supergranules [(0.5 R(sub sun))(exp 2)], where L(sub corona) is the luminosity of the corona in a subregion and Phi(sub total) is the flux content of the magnetic network in the subregion. This sampling of our quiet regions yields a correlation plot of Log L(sub corona) vs Log Phi(sub total) appropriate for comparison with the corresponding plot for active regions. For our quiet regions, the mean values of L(sub corona) and Phi(sub total) both increase linearly with area (simply because each set of subregions of the same area has very nearly the same mean coronal luminosity per unit area and mean magnetic flux per unit area), and in each constant-area set the values of L(sub corona) and Phi(sub total) 'scatter' about their means for that area. This results in the linear least-squares fit to the Log ((L (sub corona)), vs Log ((Phi (sub total)) plot having a slope somewhat less than one. If active regions mimicked our quiet regions in that all large sets of same-area active regions had the same mean coronal luminosity per unit area and same mean magnetic flux per unit area, then the least-squares fit to their Log((L (sub corona)) vs Log((Phi (sub total)) plot would also have a slope of less than one. Instead, the slope for active regions is 1.2. Given the observed factor of three scatter about the least-squares linear fit, this slope is consistent with Phi(sub total) on average increasing linearly with area (A) as in quiet regions, but L(sub corona) on average increasing as the volume (A(exp 1.5)) of the active region instead of as the area. This possibility is reasonable if the heating in active regions is a burning down of previously-stored coronal magnetic energy rather than a steady dissipation of energy flux from below as expected in quiet regions.

Moore, R. L.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Forecasting Coronal Mass Ejections from Vector Magnetograms

Identification of active regions from which Earthward halo Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are likely to originate is important both for understanding how CMEs are produced and for prediction of hazardous space weather. In previous work, from a set of 17 MSFC (Marshall Space Flight Center) vector magnetograms of 12 bipolar active regions situated within +/- 2 days of rotation from central meridian, we have evaluated four different measures of the global nonpotentiality of the magnetic field of each active region, and have found that the nonpotentiality of these active regions is strongly correlated with their CME productivity during the time interval of +/- 2 days centered on the day of the magnetogram: strongly nonpotential bipolar active regions are much more likely to produce a CME during this interval that are weakly nonpotential bipolar active regions. To further establish the use of active-region nonpotentiality for forecasting CMEs, we have expanded the sample to 19 additional bipolar active regions, with vector magnetograms taken with the upgraded MSFC vector magnetograph from September 2000 through June 2001 with support from our LWS grant (M. J. Hagyard, PI). The four global measures of nonpotentiality are the length of strong-shear, strong-field main neutral line, the net current, and two other measures of the overall twist in the magnetic field of the active-region bipole. We find: 1) The statistical significance of the correlation of the nonpotentiality of active regions with their CME productivity within +/- 2 days of the day of the magnetogram is greater than 99%. 2) 67% of the strongly nonpotential active regions produced CMEs within the +/- 2 day window, while only 17% of the weakly nonpotential ones did. 3) The statistical significance of the correlation of the nonpotentiality of active regions with their CME productivity during 0-2 days after the day of the magnetogram is about 97%. 4) 42% of the strongly nonpotential active regions produced CMEs within the 0-2 day window, while only 10% of the weakly nonpotential ones did. 5) The four different measures of an active region's nonpotentiality agree most of the time in their classification of the nonpotentiality as strong or weak (75%-90% depending on the pair of measurements). Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.

Moore, R. L.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Magnetic TRAnsition Region Probe (MTRAP)

MTRAP (Magnetic Transition Region Probe) will reveal the fine-scale physical processes in the Sun's magnetic transition region, the complex layer from the upper photosphere to the upper chromosphere/lower transition region. In the magnetic transition region plasma forces and magnetic forces are of comparable strength, which results in complex interplay of the two, which interplay governs the coupling of the convectively-driven deeper layers to the magnetically-driven upper transition region and inner corona. The fine-scale magnetic structure, processes, and events in the magnetic transition region are key to the genesis of the Sun's entire hot, dynamic outer atmosphere and to the initiation of large eruptive events. MTRAP will be a single spacecraft in Sun-synchronous Earth orbit. Because MTRAP will probe and measure the 3-D structure and dynamics of the magnetic field and plasma in the chromosphere and transition region with unprecedented resolution, the required telescope size and telemetry rates dictate that MTRAP be in Earth orbit, not in deep space. The observations will feature visible and infrared maps of vector magnetic and velocity fields in the magnetic transition region and photosphere. These will have large field of view (greater than 100,000 km), high resolution (greater than 100 km), and high sensitivity (greater than 30 G in transverse field). These observations of the lower atmosphere will be complemented by UV maps of the structure, velocity, and magnetic field (including the full vector field if technically feasible) higher up, in the upper chromosphere and lower transition region. MTRAP will also have an EUV imaging spectrograph observing coronal structure and dynamics in the same field of view with comparable resolution. Specific phenomena to be analyzed include spicules, bright points, jets, the base of plumes, and the triggering of eruptive flares and coronal mass ejections. Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.

Moore, R. L.↗

NASA NTRS2001

H-alpha Proxies for EIT Crinkles: Further Evidence for Pre-Flare "Breakout"-Type Activity in an Ejective Solar Eruption

We present Halpha observations from Big Bear Solar Observatory of an eruptive flare in NOAA AR 8210, occurring near 22:30 UT on 1998 May 1. Previously, using the EUV Imaging Telescope (EIT) on the SOHO spacecraft, we found that a pattern of transient, localized brightenings, which we call "EIT crinkles," appears in the neighborhood of the eruption near the time of flare onset. These EIT crinkles occur at a location in the active region well separated from the sheared core magnetic fields, which is where the most intense features of the eruption are concentrated. We also previously found that high-cadence images from the Soft X-ray Telescope (SXT) on Yohkoh indicate that soft X-ray intensity enhancements in the core begin after the start of the EIT crinkles. With the Halpha data, we find remote flare brightening counterparts to the EIT crinkles. Lightcurves as functions of time of various areas of the active region show that several of the remote flare brightenings undergo intensity increases prior to onset of principle brightenings in the core region, consistent with our earlier findings from EIT and SXT data. These timing relationships are consistent with the eruption onset mechanism known as the breakout model, introduced by Antiochos and colleagues, which proposes that eruptions begin with reconnection at a magnetic null high above the core region. Our observations are also consistent with other proposed mechanisms which do not involve early reconnection in the core region. As a corollary, our observations are not consistent with the so-called tether cutting models, which say that the eruption begins with reconnection in the core. The Halpha data further show that a filament in the core region becomes activated near the time of EIT crinkle onset, but little if any of the filament actually erupts, despite the presence of a halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) associated with this event.

Sterling, Alphonse C.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Coronal Heating and the Magnetic Flux Content of the Network

Previously, from analysis of SOHO/EIT coronal images in combination with Kitt Peak magnetograms (Falconer et al 1998, ApJ, 501, 386-396), we found that the quiet corona is the sum of two components: the e-scale corona and the coronal network. The large-scale corona consists of all coronal-temperature (T approx. 10(exp 6) K) structures larger than supergranules (>approx.30,000 km). The coronal network (1) consists of all coronal-temperature structures smaller than supergranules, (2) is rooted in and loosely traces the photospheric magnetic network, (3) has its brightest features seated on polarity dividing fines (neutral lines) in the network magnetic flux, and (4) produces only about 5% of the total coronal emission in quiet regions. The heating of the coronal network is apparently magnetic in origin. Here, from analysis of EIT coronal images of quiet regions in combination with magnetograms of the same quiet regions from SOHO/MDI and from Kitt Peak, we examine the other 95% of the quiet corona and its relation to the underlying magnetic network. We find: (1) Dividing the large-scale corona into its bright and dim halves divides the area into bright "continents" and dark "oceans" having spans of 2-4 supergranules. (2) These patterns are also present in the photospheric magnetograms: the network is stronger under the bright half and weaker under the dim half. (3) The radiation from the large-scale corona increases roughly as the cube root of the magnetic flux content of the underlying magnetic network. In contrast, Fisher et A (1998, ApJ, 508, 985-998) found that the coronal radiation from an active region increases roughly linearly with the magnetic flux content of the active region. We assume, as is widely held, that nearly all of the large-scale corona is magnetically rooted in the network. Our results, together with the result of Fisher et al (1999), suggest that either the coronal heating in quiet regions has a large non-magnetic component, or, if the heating is predominantly produced via the magnetic field, the mechanism is significantly different than in active regions. This work is funded by NASA's Office of Space Science through the Solar Physics Supporting Research and Technology Program and the Sun-Earth Connection Guest Investigator Program.

Falconer, D. A.↗

NASA NTRS2001

EIT Crinkles as Evidence for the Breakout Model of Solar Eruptions

We present observations of two homologous flares in NOAA active region 8210 occurring on 1998 May 1 and May 2, using EUV data from the Extreme Ultraviolet Radiation Imaging Telescope (EIT) on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO), high-resolution and high-time cadence images from the soft X-ray telescope (SXT) on Yohkoh, images or fluxes from the hard X-ray telescope (HXT) on Yohkoh and the BATSE experiment on the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory (CGRO), and Ca xix soft X-ray spectra from the Bragg crystal spectrometer (BCS) on Yohkoh. Magnetograms indicate that the flares occurred in a complex magnetic topology, consisting of an emerging flux region (EFR) sandwiched between a sunspot to the west and a coronal hole to the east. In an earlier study we found that in EIT images, both flaring episodes showed the formation of a crinkle-like pattern of emission ("EIT crinkles") occurring in the coronal hole vicinity, well away from a central "core field" area near the EFR-sunspot boundary. With our expanded data set, here we find that most of the energetic activity occurs in the core region in both events, with some portions of the core brightening shortly after the onset of the EIT crinkles, and other regions of the core brightening several minutes later, coincident with a burst of hard X-rays: there are no obvious core brightenings prior to the onset of the EIT crinkles. These timings are consistent with the "breakout model" of solar eruptions, whereby the emerging flux is initially constrained by a system of overlying magnetic field lines, and is able to erupt only after an opening develops in the overlying fields as a consequence of magnetic reconnection at a magnetic null point. In our case, the EIT crinkles would be a signature of this pre-impulsive-phase magnetic reconnection, and brightening of the core only occurs after the core fields begin to escape through the newly-created opening in the overlying fields. Morphology in soft X-ray images and properties in hard X-rays differ between the two events, with complexities that preclude a simple determination of the dynamics in the core at the times of eruption. From the BCS spectra, we find that the core region expends energy at a rate of approx. 10(exp 26) erg per second during the time of the growth of the EIT crinkles; this rate is an upper limit to energy expended in the reconnections opening the overlying fields. Energy losses occur at an order-of-magnitude higher rate near the time of the peak of the events. There is little evidence of asymmetry in the spectra, consistent with the majority of the mass flows occurring normal to the line-of-sight. Both events have similar electron temperature dependencies on time.

Sterling, Alphonse C.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Magnetic Characteristics of Active Region Heating Observed with TRACE, SOHO/EIT, and Yohkoh/SXT

Over the past several years, we have reported results from studies that have compared the magnetic structure and heating of the transition region and corona (both in active regions and in the quiet Sun) by combining X-ray and EUV images from Yohkoh and Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) with photospheric magnetograms from ground-based observatories. Our findings have led us to the hypothesis that most heating throughout the corona is driven from near and below the base of the corona by eruptive microflares occurring in compact low-lying "core magnetic fields (i.e., fields rooted along and closely enveloping polarity inversion lines in the photospheric magnetic flux). We now extend these studies, comparing sequences of UV images from Transition Region and Coronal Explorer (TRACE) with longitudinal magnetograms from Kitt Peak and vector magnetograms from MUSIC. These comparisons confirm the previous results regarding the importance of core-field activity to active region heating. Activity in fields associated with satellite polarity inclusions and/or magnetically sheared configurations is especially prominent. This work is funded by NASA's Office of Space Science through the Sun-Earth Connection Guest Investigator Program and the Solar Physics Supporting Research and Technology Program.

Porter, J. G.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Coronal Heating and the Magnetic Flux Content of the Network

Previously, from analysis of SOHO coronal images in combination with Kitt Peak magnetograms, we found that the quiet corona is the sum of two components: the large-scale corona and the coronal network. The large-scale corona consists of all coronal-temperature (T approximately 10(exp 6) K) structures larger than supergranules (greater than approximately 30,000 kilometers). The coronal network (1) consists of all coronal-temperature structures smaller than supergranules, (2) is rooted in and loosely traces the photospheric magnetic network, (3) has its brightest features seated on polarity dividing lines (neutral lines) in the network magnetic flux, and (4) produces only about 5% of the total coronal emission in quiet regions. The heating of the coronal network is apparently magnetic in origin. Here, from analysis of EIT coronal images of quiet regions in combination with magnetograms of the same quiet regions from SOHO/MDI and from Kitt Peak, we examine the other 95% of the quiet corona and its relation to the underlying magnetic network. We find: (1) Dividing the large-scale corona into its bright and dim halves divides the area into bright "continents" and dark "oceans" having spans of 2-4 supergranules. (2) These patterns are also present in the photospheric magnetograms: the network is stronger under the bright half and weaker under the dim half. (3) The radiation from the large-scale corona increases roughly as the cube root of the magnetic flux content of the underlying magnetic network. In contrast, the coronal radiation from an active region increases roughly linearly with the magnetic flux content of the active region. We assume, as is widely held, that nearly all of the large-scale corona is magnetically rooted in the network. Our results suggest that either the coronal heating in quiet regions has a large non-magnetic component, or, if the heating is predominantly produced via the magnetic field, the mechanism is significantly different than in active regions.

Falconer, D. A.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Prediction of Coronal Mass Ejections From Vector Magnetograms: Quantitative Measures as Predictors

We derived two quantitative measures of an active region's global nonpotentiality from the region's vector magnetogram, 1) the net current (I(sub N)), and 2) the length of strong-shear, strong-field main neutral line (Lss), and used these two measures in a pilot study of the CME productivity of 4 active regions. We compared the global nonpotentiality measures to the active regions' CME productivity determined from GOES and Yohkoh/SXT observations. We found that two of the active regions were highly globally nonpotential and were CME productive, while the other two active regions had little global nonpotentiality and produced no CMEs. At the Fall 2000 AGU, we reported on an expanded study (12 active regions and 17 magnetograms) in which we evaluated four quantitative global measures of an active region's magnetic field and compared these measures with the CME productivity. The four global measures (all derived from MSFC vector magnetograms) included our two previous measures (I(sub N) and L(sub ss)) as well as two new ones, the total magnetic flux (PHI) (a measure of an active region's size), and the normalized twist (alpha (bar)= muIN/PHI). We found that the three quantitative measures of global nonpotentiality (I(sub N), L(sub ss), alpha (bar)) were all well correlated (greater than 99% confidence level) with an active region's CME productivity within plus or minus 2 days of the day of the magnetogram. We will now report on our findings of how good our quantitative measures are as predictors of active-region CME productivity, using only CMEs that occurred after the magnetogram. We report the preliminary skill test of these quantitative measures as predictors. We compare the CME prediction success of our quantitative measures to the CME prediction success based on an active region's past CME productivity. We examine the cases of the handful of false positive and false negatives to look for improvements to our predictors. This work is funded by NSF through the Space Weather Program and by NASA through the Solar Physics Supporting Research and Technology Program.

Falconer, D. A.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Use of Yohkoh SXT in Measuring the Net Current and CME Productivity of Active Regions

In our investigation of the correlation of global nonpotentiality of active regions to their CME productivity (Falconer, D.A. 2001, JGR, in press, and Falconer, Moore, & Gary, 2000, EOS 82, 20 S323), we use Yohkoh SXT images for two purposes. The first use is to help resolve the 180 degree ambiguity in the direction of the observed transverse magnetic field. Resolution of the 180 degree ambiguity is important, since the net current, one of our measures of global nonpotentiality, is derived from integrating the dot product of the transverse field around a contour (I(sub N)=(integral)BT(raised dot)dl). The ambiguity results from the observed transverse field being determined from the linear polarization, which gives the plane of the direction, but leaves a 180 degrees ambiguity. Automated methods to resolve the ambiguity ranging from the simple acute angle rule (Falconer, D.A. 2001) to the more sophisticated annealing method (Metcalf T.R. 1994). For many active regions, especially ones that are nearly potential these methods work well. But for very nonpotential active regions where the shear angle (the angle between the observed and potential transverse field) is near 90 degrees throughout large swaths along the main neutral line, both methods can resolve the ambiguity incorrectly for long segments of the neutral line. By determining from coronal images, such as those from Yohkoh/SXT, the sense of shear along the main neutral line in the active region, these cases can be identified and corrected by a modification of the acute angle rule described here. The second use of Yohkoh/SXT in this study is to check for the cusped coronal arcades of long-duration eruptive flares. This signature is an excellent proxy for CMEs, and was used by Canfield, Hudson, and McKenzie (1999 GRL V26, 6, 627-630). This work is funded by NSF through the Space Weather Program and by NASA through the Solar Physics Supporting Research and Technology Program.

Falconer, D. A.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Onset of the Magnetic Explosion in Solar Flares and Coronal Mass Ejections

We present observations of the magnetic field configuration and its transformation in six solar eruptive events that show good agreement with the Hirayama-Shibata model for eruptive flares. The observations arc X-ray images from the Yohkoh Soft X-ray Telescope (SXT) and magnetograms from Kitt Peak National Solar Observatory, interpreted together with the 1-8 Angstrom X-ray flux observed by GOES. The observations show: 1. Each event is a magnetic explosion that occurs in an initially closed magnetic bipole in which the core field is sheared and twisted in the shape of a sigmoid, having an oppositely curved elbow on each end. The arms of the opposite elbows are sheared past each other so that they overlap and are crossed low above the neutral line in the middle of the bipole. 2. Although four of the explosions arc ejective (blow open the bipole) and two are confined (arc arrested within the closed bipole), all six begin the same way. In the SXT iniages, the explosion begins with brightening and expansion of the two elbows together with the appearance of short bright sheared loops low over the neutral line under the crossed arms and, rising up from the crossed arms, long strands connecting the far ends of the elbows. 3. All six events arc single-bipole events in that during the onset and early development of the explosion they show no evidence for reconnection between the exploding bipole and any surrounding magnetic fields. We conclude that in each of our events the magnetic explosion was unleashed by runaway tether-cutting via implosive/explosive rcconnection in the middle of the sigmoid, as in the Hirayama-Shibata model. The similarity of the onsets of the two confined explosions to the onsets of the four ejective explosions and their agreement with the model indicate that runaway reconnection inside a sheared core field can begin whether or not the overlying fields (the envelope field and contiguous fields that press down on the envelope) allow the explosion to be ejective. We consider the implications ofthis for the unleashing of magnetic explosions in field configurations composed of to or more impacted bipoles.

Moore, R. L.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Prediction of Coronal Mass Ejections from Vector Magnetograms: Results from More Active Regions

In a previous pilot study of four predominantly bipolar active regions observed by the MSFC vector magnetograph in 1991-92, we found that two quantitative measures of the global nonpotentiality of an active region were promising predictors of whether the active region produced coronal mass ejections (CMES) during its rotation across the Sun. The two quantitative measures are 1) the length (L(sub ss)) of the segments along the active region's main neutral line on which the vector magnetic field is both strong and strongly sheared, and 2) the global net current (I(sub N) flowing up one side of the bipole and down the other. Two of the active regions had large measured global nonpotentiality (L(sub ss) approximately >10(exp 5) km and I(sub N) approximately >4x 10(exp 12) Amp) and produced three CMEs each. The other two active regions had much smaller measured global nonpotentiality and produced no CMES. We have now expanded our sample of active regions by a factor of 3 with active regions from 1991 to the present. We have calibrated the line-of-sight magnetic field by comparing it to the line-of-sight field measured by Kitt Peak and/or SOHO/MDI. We have resolved the 180 deg. ambiguity in the transverse field by using three different methods, and compared the resulting global net currents. We will compare the two measures of global nonpotentiality to each other and to the CME productivity of each active i-eolon in our expanded set. We will examine the extent to which these results from the expanded set confirm or modify the tentative rule for CME prediction that we found in our pilot study.

Falconer, D. A.↗