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Molnar, Gyula

Publications and source records attributed to Molnar, Gyula.

At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2012

Recent Advances in Improvement of Forecast Skill and Understanding Climate Processes Using AIRS Version-5 Products

AIRS/AMSU is the state of the art infrared and microwave atmospheric sounding system flying aboard EOS Aqua. These observations, covering the period September 2002 until the present, have been analyzed using the AIRS Science Team Version-5 retrieval algorithm. AIRS is a high spectral resolution infrared grating spectrometer with spect,ral coverage from 650 per centimeter extending to 2660 per centimeter, with low noise and a spectral resolving power of 2400. A brief overview of the AIRS Version-5 retrieval procedure will be presented, including the AIRS channels used in different steps in the retrieval process. Many researchers have used these products to make significant advances in both climate and weather applications. Recent significant results of these experiments will be presented, including results showing that 1) assimilation of AIRS Quality Controlled temperature profiles into a General Circulation Model (GCM) significantly improves the ability to predict storm tracks of intense precipitation events; and 2) anomaly time-series of Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) computed using AIRS sounding products closely match those determined from the CERES instrument, and furthermore explain that the phenomenon that global and especially tropical mean OLR have been decreasing since September 2002 is a result of El Nino/La Nina oscillations during this period.

Susskind, Joel↗
NASA NTRS2012

Significant Advances in the AIRS Science Team Version-6 Retrieval Algorithm

AIRS/AMSU is the state of the art infrared and microwave atmospheric sounding system flying aboard EOS Aqua. The Goddard DISC has analyzed AIRS/AMSU observations, covering the period September 2002 until the present, using the AIRS Science Team Version-S retrieval algorithm. These products have been used by many researchers to make significant advances in both climate and weather applications. The AIRS Science Team Version-6 Retrieval, which will become operation in mid-20l2, contains many significant theoretical and practical improvements compared to Version-5 which should further enhance the utility of AIRS products for both climate and weather applications. In particular, major changes have been made with regard to the algOrithms used to 1) derive surface skin temperature and surface spectral emissivity; 2) generate the initial state used to start the retrieval procedure; 3) compute Outgoing Longwave Radiation; and 4) determine Quality Control. This paper will describe these advances found in the AIRS Version-6 retrieval algorithm and demonstrate the improvement of AIRS Version-6 products compared to those obtained using Version-5,

Susskind, Joel↗
NASA NTRS2012

SRT Evaluation of AIRS Version-6.02 and Version-6.02 AIRS Only (6.02 AO) Products

Version-6 contains a number of significant improvements over Version-5. This report compares Version-6 products resulting from the advances listed below to those from Version-5. 1. Improved methodology to determine skin temperature (T(sub s)) and spectral emissivity (Epsilon(sub v)). 2. Use of Neural-net start-up state. 3. Improvements which decrease the spurious negative Version-5 trend in tropospheric temperatures. 4. Improved QC methodology. Version-6 uses separate QC thresholds optimized for Data Assimilation (QC=0) and Climate applications (QC=0,1) respectively. 5. Channel-by-channel clear-column radiances R-hat(sub tau) QC flags. 6. Improved cloud parameter retrieval algorithm. 7. Improved OLR RTA. Our evaluation compared V6.02 and V6.02 AIRS Only (V6.02 AO) Quality Controlled products with those of Version-5.0. In particular we evaluated surface skin temperature T(sub s), surface spectral emissivity Epsilon(sub v), temperature profile T(p), water vapor profile q(p), OLR, OLR(sub CLR), effective cloud fraction alpha-Epsilon, and cloud cleared radiances R-hat(sub tau) . We conducted two types of evaluations. The first compared results on 7 focus days to collocated ECMWF truth. The seven focus days are: September 6, 2002; January 25, 2003; September 29, 2004; August 5, 2005; February 24, 2007; August 10, 2007; and May 30, 2010. In these evaluations, we show results for T(sub s), Epsilon(sub v), T(p), and q(p) in terms of yields, and RMS differences and biases with regard to ECMWF. We also show yield trends as well as bias trends of these quantities relative to ECMWF truth. We also show yields and accuracy of channel by channel QC d values of R-hat(sub tau) for V6.02 and V6.02 AO. Version-5 did not contain channel by channel QC d values of R-hat(sub tau). In the second type of evaluation, we compared V6.03 monthly mean Level-3 products to those of Version-5.0, for four different months: January, April, July, and October; in 3 different years 2003, 2007, and 2011. In particular, we compared V6.03 and V5.0 trends of T(p), q(p), alpha-Epsilon, OLR, and OLR(sub CLR) computed based on results for these 12 time periods

Susskind, Joel↗
NASA NTRS2012

Interannual Variability of OLR as Observed by AIRS and CERES

This paper compares spatial anomaly time series of OLR (Outgoing Longwave Radiation) and OLR(sub CLR) (Clear Sky OLR) as determined using observations from CERES Terra and AIRS over the time period September 2002 through June 2011. Both AIRS and CERES show a significant decrease in global mean and tropical mean OLR over this time period. We find excellent agreement of the anomaly time-series of the two OLR data sets in almost every detail, down to 1 deg X 1 deg spatial grid point level. The extremely close agreement of OLR anomaly time series derived from observations by two different instruments implies that both sets of results must be highly stable. This agreement also validates to some extent the anomaly time series of the AIRS derived products used in the computation of the AIRS OLR product. The paper also examines the correlations of anomaly time series of AIRS and CERES OLR, on different spatial scales, as well as those of other AIRS derived products, with that of the NOAA Sea Surface Temperature (SST) product averaged over the NOAA Nino-4 spatial region. We refer to these SST anomalies as the El Nino Index. Large spatially coherent positive and negative correlations of OLR anomaly time series with that of the El Nino Index are found in different spatial regions. Anomalies of global mean, and especially tropical mean, OLR are highly positively correlated with the El Nino Index. These correlations explain that the recent global and tropical mean decreases in OLR over the period September 2002 through June 2011, as observed by both AIRS and CERES, are primarily the result of a transition from an El Nino condition at the beginning of the data record to La Nina conditions toward the end of the data period. We show that the close correlation of global mean, and especially tropical mean, OLR anomalies with the El Nino Index can be well accounted for by temporal changes of OLR within two spatial regions which lie outside the NOAA Nino-4 region, in which anomalies of cloud cover and mid-tropospheric water vapor are both highly negatively correlated with the El Nino Index. Agreement of the AIRS and CERES OLR(sub CLR) anomaly time series is less good, which may be a result of the large sampling differences in the ensemble of cases included in each OLR(sub CLR) data set.

Susskind, Joel↗
NASA NTRS2011

Contributions to Climate Research Using the AIRS Science Team Version-5 Products

This paper compares recent spatial anomaly time series of OLR (Outgoing Longwave Radiation) and OLRCLR (Clear Sky OLR) as determined using CERES and AIRS observations over the time period September 2002 through June 2010. We find excellent agreement in OLR anomaly time series of both data sets in almost every detail, down to the 1 x 1 spatial grid point level. This extremely close agreement of OLR anomaly time series derived from observations by two different instruments implies that both sets of results must be highly stable. This agreement also validates to some extent the anomaly time series of the AIRS derived products used in the computation of the AIRS OLR product. The paper then examines anomaly time series of AIRS derived products over the extended time period September 2002 through April 2011. We show that OLR anomalies during this period are closely in phase with those of an El Nino index, and that recent global and tropical mean decreases in OLR and OLR(sub CLR) are a result of a transition from an El Nino condition at the beginning of the data record to La Nina conditions toward the end of the data period. This relationship can be explained by temporal changes of the distribution of mid-tropospheric water vapor and cloud cover in two spatial regions that are in direct response to El Nino/La Nina activity which occurs outside these spatial regions

Susskind, Joel↗
NASA NTRS2011

Intercomparison of Recent Anomaly Time-Series of OLR as Observed by CERES and Computed Using AIRS Products

This paper compares recent spatial and temporal anomaly time series of OLR as observed by CERES and computed based on AIRS retrieved surface and atmospheric geophysical parameters over the 7 year time period September 2002 through February 2010. This time period is marked by a substantial decrease of OLR, on the order of +/-0.1 W/sq m/yr, averaged over the globe, and very large spatial variations of changes in OLR in the tropics, with local values ranging from -2.8 W/sq m/yr to +3.1 W/sq m/yr. Global and Tropical OLR both began to decrease significantly at the onset of a strong La Ni a in mid-2007. Late 2009 is characterized by a strong El Ni o, with a corresponding change in sign of both Tropical and Global OLR anomalies. The spatial patterns of the 7 year short term changes in AIRS and CERES OLR have a spatial correlation of 0.97 and slopes of the linear least squares fits of anomaly time series averaged over different spatial regions agree on the order of +/-0.01 W/sq m/yr. This essentially perfect agreement of OLR anomaly time series derived from observations by two different instruments, determined in totally independent and different manners, implies that both sets of results must be highly stable. This agreement also validates the anomaly time series of the AIRS derived products used to compute OLR and furthermore indicates that anomaly time series of AIRS derived products can be used to explain the factors contributing to anomaly time series of OLR.

Susskind, Joel↗
NASA NTRS2011

The Relationship Between El Nino/La Nina Oscillations and Recent Anomaly Time Series of OLR Determined by CERES and AIRS

This paper compares recent spatial anomaly time series of OLR (Outgoing Longwave Radiation) and OLRCLR (Clear Sky OLR) as determined using CERES and AIRS observations over the time period September 2002 through June 2010. We find excellent agreement in OLR anomaly time series of both data sets in almost every detail, down to the 1 x 1 spatial grid point level. This extremely close agreement of OLR anomaly time series derived from observations by two different instruments implies that both sets of results must be highly stable. This agreement also validates to some extent the anomaly time series of the AIRS derived products used in the computation of the AIRS OLR product. The paper then examines anomaly time series of AIRS derived products over the extended time period September 2002 through April 2011. We show that OLR anomalies during this period are closely in phase with those of an El Nino index, and that the recent global and tropical mean decreases in OLR and OLRCLR are a result of a transition from an El Nino condition at the beginning of the data record to La Nina conditions toward the end of the data period. We show that the relationship between global mean, and especially tropical mean, OLR anomalies to the El Nino index can be explained by temporal changes of the distribution of mid-tropospheric water vapor and cloud cover in two spatial regions that are in direct response to El Nino/La Nina activity which occurs outside these spatial regions.

Susskind, Joel↗
NASA NTRS2010

Usefulness of AIRS-Derived OLR, Temperature, Water Vapor and Cloudiness Anomaly Time-series for GCM Validation

The ROBUST nature (biases are not as important as previous GCM-evaluations suggest) of the AIRS-observations-generated ARC-maps and ATs as well as their interrelations suggest that they could be a useful tool to select CGCMs which may be considered the reliable, i.e., to be trusted even for longer-term climate drift/change predictions (even on the regional scale). Get monthly gridded CGCM time-series of atmospheric variables coinciding with the timeframe of the AIRS analyses for at least 5-6 years and do the actual evaluations of ARC-maps and ATs for the coinciding time periods.

Molnar, Gyula↗
NASA NTRS2010

AIRS Water Vapor and Cloud Products Validate and Explain Recent Short Term Decreases in Global and Tropical OLR as Observed by CERES

A strong equatorial SST cooling occurred from 160E westward to 120W during the period of September 2002 through August 2010, surrounded by a weaker warming ring to the west. This is the result of a transition from a strong El Nino in late 2002 to a strong La Nina in 2008. Late 2009 is characterized by the beginning of another El Nino. Average rates of change (ARC's) in 500mb specific humidity and cloud cover are in phase with those in the Sea surface temperature (SST). In the El Nino and surrounding region causing outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), to decrease significantly near the dateline and increase in the vicinity of Indonesia. Tropical OLR ARC's in these two areas cancel each other to first order. The negative zonal mean tropical OLR ARC from a drop in equatorial OLR in region 1 from 140W to 40E. This results from increasing water vapor and cloud cover in this area during La Nina with the reverse holding during El Nino.

Susskind, Joel↗
NASA NTRS2010

Recent Spatial and Temporal Anomalies and Trends of OLR as Observed by CERES and Computed Based on AIRS Retrievals

We show that a recent CERES-observed negative trend in OLR of approx.-0.1 W/sq m/yr averaged over the globe, for the time period of September 2002 through February 2010 used in this study, is found in the AIRS OLR data as well. Most importantly, even minute details (down to 1 x 1 Degree GCM-scale resolution) of spatial and temporal anomalies and trends of OLR as observed by CERES and computed based on AIRS-retrieved surface and atmospheric geophysical parameters over this time period are essentially the same. We see this correspondence even in the very large spatial variations of these trends with local values ranging from -2.6 W/sq m/yr to +3.0 W/sq m/yr in the tropics. This essentially perfect agreement of OLR anomalies and even local trends derived from observations by two different instruments, in totally independent and different manners, implies that both sets of results must be highly accurate; and indirectly validates the anomalies and trends of other AIRS derived products as well. These products show that global and regional anomalies and trends of OLR, water vapor and cloud cover over the last 7+ years are strongly influenced by El-Nino-La Nina cycles . We use the anomalies and trends of AIRS derived products to explain why the global OLR has a large negative trend over this time period; Global and tropical OLR began to decrease significantly at the onset of a strong La Nina in mid-2007. AIRS products show that cloudiness and mid-tropospheric water vapor began to increase in the tropics at roughly the same time, especially in the region 5degN - 20degS latitude extending eastward from 150degW to 30degE longitude, with a corresponding very large drop in OLR in this region. Late 2009 is characterized by a strong El-Nino, with a corresponding change in sign of observed tropical water vapor, cloud cover, and OLR anomalies. If one excludes the area 5degN - 20degS, 150degW - 30degE from the statistics, area mean OLR trends over the rest of the globe are substantially reduced over the time period under study.

Molnar, Gyula↗
NASA NTRS2010

AIRS Products Confirm and Explain Recent Negative Trends of OLR as Observed by CERES

Anomalies and trends of OLR serve as important indicators of climate change. Several satellite based instruments currently provide information related to OLR. CERES, on board the EOS Aqua and Terra satellites, contains broad band radiometers that measure total flux and short-wave flux, from which OLR is determined. AIRS is a high spectral resolution IR sounder on EOS Aqua that measures IR radiances covering most of the spectral interval 650/cm to 2670/cm. These observations enable the determination of detailed information about atmospheric temperature, moisture, and ozone profiles, as well as surface skin temperatures and cloud parameters. The AIRS OLR product is the total flux over the spectral interval 2/cm to 2750/cm computed for the surface and atmospheric state determined from AIRS observations. We compared spatial anomalies and trends of OLR, over the seven year period September 2002 through August 2009, as observed by CERES and computed using Version-5 AIRS products. These two sets of OLR anomalies and trends, obtained in very different ways, agree with each other almost perfectly in essentially every detail. This important finding shows that a very stable high spectral infra-red sounder such as AIRS corroborates the anomalies and trends of OLR obtained from CERES. More significantly, anomalies and trends of the individual geophysical parameters derived from AIRS explain the detailed causes of the anomalies and trends of CERES OLR. Both sets of results show that global mean OLR has been decreasing at a rate of 0.12 W/sq m/yr over the seven year time period under study. Both also confirm that the primary cause of this is due to changes in the tropics, in which OLR has been decreasing at a rate of 0.27 W/sq m/yr. AIRS products show that the decrease of tropical OLR is a result of increasing tropical atmospheric water vapor and cloud cover over that time period studied, which in turn is responding to a very strong La Nina; a event starting in late 2007. Equatorial ocean temperatures between 160 E and 120 W cooled considerably during this time period, with corresponding local decreases in mid-tropospheric humidity and cloud cover, resulting in increases in local OLR. This was more than compensated by substantial increases in water vapor and cloud cover elsewhere in the tropics, resulting in a net decrease in tropical OLR. The AIRS Version-5 products currently extend through December 2009. An El Nino event began in late 2009. AIRS products show that tropical OLR began to increase at that time, and there was a corresponding reversal of sign of tropical cloud and water vapor anomalies.

Susskind, Joel↗
NASA NTRS2010

AIRS Water Vapor and Cloud Products Validate and Explain Recent Negative Global and Tropical OLR Trends Observed by CERES

This paper compares spatial and temporal anomalies and trends of OLR as observed by CERES and computed based on AIRS retrieved surface and atmospheric geophysical parameters over the time period September 2002 February 2010. This time period is marked by a substantial decreasing OLR trend on the order of -0.1 W/m2/yr averaged over the globe. There are very large spatial variations of these trends however, with local values ranging from -2.6 W/m2/yr to +3.0 W/m2/yr in the tropics. The spatial patterns of the AIRS and CERES trends are in essentially perfect agreement with each other, as are the anomaly time series averaged over different spatial regions. This essentially perfect agreement of OLR anomalies and trends derived from observations by two different instruments, in totally independent and different manners, implies that both sets of results must be highly accurate. The agreement of anomalies and trends of OLR as observed by CERES and computed from AIRS derived products also indirectly validates the anomalies and trends of the AIRS derived products as well. We used the anomalies and trends of AIRS derived water vapor and cloud products to explain why global OLR has had a large negative trend over the time period September 2002 through February 2010. Tropical OLR began to decrease significantly at the onset of a strong La Nina in mid-2007. AIRS products show that cloudiness and mid-tropospheric water vapor began to increase in the region 5degN - 20degS latitude extending eastward from 150degW - 30 E longitude at that time, with a corresponding very large drop in OLR in this region. Late 2009 is characterized by a strong El-Nino, with a corresponding change in sign of observed anomalies of mid-tropospheric water vapor, cloud cover, and OLR in this region, as we] l as that of OLR anomalies in the tropics and globally. Monthly mean anomalies of OLR, water vapor and cloud cover over this region are all shown to be highly correlated in time with those of an El Nino anomaly index four months previously. The El Nino index is defined as the SST anomaly averaged over the area 15S to 15N and 160W eastward to 30E. If one excludes the area 5degN - 20degS, 150degW - 30degE from the statistics, the negative area mean tropical OLR trends, as well as OLR trends over the rest of the globe, are substantially

Susskind, Joel↗
NASA NTRS2009

Spatial and Temporal Inter-Relationship between Anomalies and Trends of Temperature, Moisture, Cloud Cover and OLR as Observed by AIRS/AMSU on Aqua

AIRS/AMSU is the advanced IR/MW atmospheric sounding system launched on EOS Aqua in May 2002. Products derived from AIRS/AMSU by the AIRS Science Team include surface skin temperature and atmospheric temperature profiled; atmospheric humidity profiles, fractional cloud clover and cloud top pressure, and OLR. Products covering the period September 2002 through the present have been derived from AIRS/AMSU using the AIRS Science Team Version 5 retrieval algorithm. In this paper, we will show results covering the time period September 2006 - November 2008. This time period is marked by a substantial warming trend of Northern Hemisphere Extra-tropical land surface skin temperatures, as well as pronounced El Nino - La Nina episodes. These both influence the spatial and temporal anomaly patterns of atmospheric temperature and moisture profiles, as well as of cloud cover and Clear Sky and All Sky OLR. The relationships between temporal and spatial anomalies of these parameters over this time period, as determined from AIRS/AMSU observations, will be shown with particular emphasis on which contribute significantly to OLR anomalies in each of the tropics and extra-tropics. Results will also be shown to evaluate the anomalies and trends of temperature profiles and OLR as determined from analysis of AIRS/AMSU data. Global and regional trends during the 6 1/3 year time period are not necessarily indicative of what has happened in the past, or what may happen in the future. Nevertheless, the inter-relationships of spatial and temporal anomalies of atmospheric geophysical parameters with those of surface skin temperature are indicative of climate processes, and can be used to test the performance of climate models when driven by changes in surface temperatures.

Susskind, Joel↗