SPARC-IGAC Symposium on Climate-Chemistry Interactions. Climate Feedback by Water Vapor in the Tropical Upper Troposphere
The strong greenhouse forcing by atmospheric water vapor is expected to play an important role in shaping the direction of any future changes in climate. We present calculations that provide a new perspective on the sensitivity of upper tropospheric water vapor to changes in surface temperature. Equilibrium states of our atmospheric model show unambiguously that as the surface warms, changes in the vertical distribution and temperature of detraining air parcels from tropical convection lead to higher water vapor mixing ratios in the upper troposphere. However, the increase in mixing ratio is not as large as the increase in saturation mixing ratio due to warmer environmental temperatures, so that the relative humidity decreases. Our analysis suggests that models that maintain a fixed relative humidity are likely overestimating the magnitude of the water vapor feedback.