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Milligan, M

Publications and source records attributed to Milligan, M.

At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2013

Short-Term Load Forecasting Error Distributions and Implications for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

Load forecasting in the day-ahead timescale is a critical aspect of power system operations that is used in the unit commitment process. It is also an important factor in renewable energy integration studies, where the combination of load and wind or solar forecasting techniques create the net load uncertainty that must be managed by the economic dispatch process or with suitable reserves. An understanding of that load forecasting errors that may be expected in this process can lead to better decisions about the amount of reserves necessary to compensate errors. In this work, we performed a statistical analysis of the day-ahead (and two-day-ahead) load forecasting errors observed in two independent system operators for a one-year period. Comparisons were made with the normal distribution commonly assumed in power system operation simulations used for renewable power integration studies. Further analysis identified time periods when the load is more likely to be under- or overforecast.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2012

Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions: An International Comparison; Preprint

Wind power forecasting is expected to be an important enabler for greater penetration of wind power into electricity systems. Because no wind forecasting system is perfect, a thorough understanding of the errors that do occur can be critical to system operation functions, such as the setting of operating reserve levels. This paper provides an international comparison of the distribution of wind power forecasting errors from operational systems, based on real forecast data. The paper concludes with an assessment of similarities and differences between the errors observed in different locations.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2012

Wind Power Forecasting Error Frequency Analyses for Operational Power System Studies: Preprint

The examination of wind power forecasting errors is crucial for optimal unit commitment and economic dispatch of power systems with significant wind power penetrations. This scheduling process includes both renewable and nonrenewable generators, and the incorporation of wind power forecasts will become increasingly important as wind fleets constitute a larger portion of generation portfolios. This research considers the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study database of wind power forecasts and numerical actualizations. This database comprises more than 30,000 locations spread over the western United States, with a total wind power capacity of 960 GW. Error analyses for individual sites and for specific balancing areas are performed using the database, quantifying the fit to theoretical distributions through goodness-of-fit metrics. Insights into wind-power forecasting error distributions are established for various levels of temporal and spatial resolution, contrasts made among the frequency distribution alternatives, and recommendations put forth for harnessing the results. Empirical data are used to produce more realistic site-level forecasts than previously employed, such that higher resolution operational studies are possible. This research feeds into a larger work of renewable integration through the links wind power forecasting has with various operational issues, such as stochastic unit commitment and flexible reserve level determination.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2012

Impact of Transmission on Resource Adequacy in Systems with Wind and Solar Power: Preprint

Variable generation is on track to become a significant contributor to electric power systems worldwide. Thus, it is important to analyze the effect that renewables will have on the reliability of systems. In this paper we present a new tool being implemented at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, which allows the inclusion of variable generation in the power system resource adequacy. Thetool is used to quantify the potential contribution of transmission to reliability in highly interconnected systems and an example is provided using the Western Interconnection footprint.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2011

Operating Reserves and Variable Generation

This report tries to first generalize the requirements of the power system as it relates to the needs of operating reserves. It also includes a survey of operating reserves and how they are managed internationally in system operations today and then how new studies and research are proposing they may be managed in the future with higher penetrations of variable generation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2011

Operating Reserve Implication of Alternative Implementations of an Energy Imbalance Service on Wind Integration in the Western Interconnection: Preprint

During the past few years, there has been significant interest in alternative ways to manage power systems over a larger effective electrical footprint. Large regional transmission organizations in the Eastern Interconnection have effectively consolidated balancing areas, achieving significant economies of scale that result in a reduction in required reserves. Conversely, in the WesternInterconnection there are many balancing areas, which will result in challenges if there is significant wind and solar energy development in the region. A recent proposal to the Western Electricity Coordinating Council suggests a regional energy imbalance service (EIS). To evaluate this EIS, a number of analyses are in process or are planned. This paper describes one part of an analysis of theEIS's implication on operating reserves under several alternative scenarios of the market footprint and participation. We improve on the operating reserves method utilized in the Eastern Wind Integration and Transmission Study and apply this modified approach to data from the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2011

Cost-Causation and Integration Cost Analysis for Variable Generation

This report examines how wind and solar integration studies have evolved, what analysis techniques work, what common mistakes are still made, what improvements are likely to be made in the near future, and why calculating integration costs is such a difficult problem and should be undertaken carefully, if at all.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗