Statistical analysis of persistent explosive activity at Stromboli, 1971 - Implications for eruption prediction
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Engineering topics
Publications and source records attributed to Mcgetchin, T. R..
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The mode and mechanisms of plateau uplifts are reported, based on discussions which occurred as part of a conference on plateau uplifts sponsored by the Inter-Union Commission on Geodynamics and the Lunar and Planetary Institute. Major plateaus and high plains of the world are discussed with emphasis on the Colorado Plateau, which possesses a shield-like crust 45 km thick and occupies most of eastern Utah and parts of Colorado, Arizona, and New Mexico. Several uplift mechanisms are described, including thermal expansion due to a deep mantle plume or hot spot, and hydration reactions such as serpentinization. It is concluded that uplifts are most commonly associated with either subduction and its direct effects, or deep-seated thermal disturbances.
The results of the analyses of movies of eruptions at Stromboli, Italy, and other available data are used to discuss the question of its energy partitioning among various energy transport mechanisms. Energy is transported to the surface from active volcanoes in at least eight modes, viz. conduction (and convection) of the heat through the surface, radiative heat transfer from the vent, acoustical radiation in blast and jet noise, seismic radiation, thermal energy of ejected particles, kinetic energy of ejected particles, thermal energy of ejected gas, and kinetic energy of ejected gas. Estimated values of energy flux from Stromboli by these eight mechanisms are tabulated. The energy budget of Stromboli in its normal mode of activity appears to be dominated by heat conduction (and convection) through the ground surface. Heat carried by eruption gases is the most important of the other energy transfer modes. Radiated heat from the open vent and heat carried by ejected lava particles also contribute to the total flux, while seismic energy accounts for about 0.5% of the total. All other modes are trivial by comparison.
Volcanic activity on Earth and its secular variations are compared with that on other terrestrial planets. Activity at divergent, transform, and convergent plate margins is described with particular emphasis on hot spots and flood basalts. The timing and causing of uplifting above 500 meters, which in not associated with either plate boundaries or the normal nonplate margin edges of continents is considered with particular focus on the Guyana Highlands in southern Venezuela and western British Guiana, and the Brazilian Highlands in the central, eastern, and southern parts of the country. The mode and mechanism of plateau uplifting and the re-elevation of old mountain belts and subsidence of intra-continental basins are also discussed.
The high density of the Martian mantle probably implies an iron-rich composition expressed by a higher concentration of FeO than that in the earth's mantle. Examination of high-pressure mineralogies suggests that the model Martian mantle has an oxide-garnet wehrlite phase assemblage. This mantle model would be likely to yield ultrabasic (ferrobasaltic) melts of very low viscosity. The prevalence of low-viscosity material is consistent with large eruption rate and copious lava flow on the planet. Furthermore, ferro-kimberlite volcanic ash may be an abundant constituent in the Martian soil, especially if there was much volatile material within the early accreting Mars.
A Lagrangian computer program is used to study the effects of large impacts on planetary surfaces. More specifically, the global seismic effects for cratering energies of 10 to the 24th and 10 to the 25th J between the Copernicus and Imbrium lunar events are investigated. The phenomenologies for assumed solid and molten planetary interiors are compared. The main results of this investigation are: (1) far-field effects are found to be largely independent of cratering mechanisms, (2) antipodal seismic effects, which are of substantial magnitude, are greatly enhanced by focusing, (3) the most violent activity takes place at significant depth, (4) seismic effects are more pronounced for a molten planet than for a solid one, and (5) tensile failure may occur at depths of tens of kilometers beneath the antipode, or over the entire surface at shallower depths. These results suggest that the unusual terrains antipodal to large planetary basins may have been greatly modified by seismicity generated by the basin-forming impacts, and that the impacts may have brecciated the entire lithospheres of the terrestrial planets as the lithospheres formed and thickened
The paper discusses some theoretical aspects of acoustic investigation of volcanoes and describes a field experiment involving the recording, analysis, and interpretation of acoustic radiation from energetic fumaroles at Volcan Acatenango, Guatemala, during mid-January 1973. Particular attention is given to deriving information about the flow velocity of the erupting medium from acoustics as a means to study eruption dynamics. Theoretical considerations suggest that acoustic power radiated during gaseous volcanic eruptions may be related to gas exit velocity according to appropriate power laws. Eruption acoustics proves useful as a means of quantitative monitoring of volcanic activity.
Two night eruptions of the volcano Stromboli were studied through 70-mm photography. Single-camera techniques were used. Particle sphericity, constant velocity in the frame, and radial symmetry were assumed. Properties of the particulate phase found through analysis include: particle size, velocity, total number of particles ejected, angular dispersion and distribution in the jet, time variation of particle size and apparent velocity distribution, averaged volume flux, and kinetic energy carried by the condensed phase. The frequency distributions of particle size and apparent velocities are found to be approximately log normal. The properties of the gas phase were inferred from the fact that it was the transporting medium for the condensed phase. Gas velocity and time variation, volume flux of gas, dynamic pressure, mass erupted, and density were estimated. A CO2-H2O mixture is possible for the observed eruptions. The flow was subsonic. Velocity variations may be explained by an organ pipe resonance. Particle collimation may be produced by a Magnus effect.
The evolution and state of the interior of Mars are studied through the use of theoretically calculated thermal history and density models. Invoking melting of an Fe-FeS mixture permits initial core formation within the first billion years. At the present time the core radius ranges from about 1300 to 1800 km, depending on composition, and the core is liquid even if the composition is varied from the eutectic. Large-scale differentiation of the silicates occurs in the last 2 b.y. When the mean density is 3.96 g/cu cm, the radius is 3389 km, and the moment of inertia factor is 0.377, the density models indicate high mantle densities near 3.74 g/cu cm. Thus an FeO content of about 29% is implied, consistent with the production of a low-viscosity magma. Chemical models of the Martian mantle indicate a composition primarily of olivine with about 56% forsterite.
The structure, physical properties of ejecta, ballistics, and growth of Northeast crater, a young pyroclastic cone that originated in 1911 near the summit of Mount Etna, Sicily, were studied in order to form a model of volcano cinder cone growth. Four stages of growth were discerned: (1) a simple cone; (2) a cone with an outward-dipping talus slope; (3) destruction of rounded rim by the inward migration of the upper edge of the talus pile; and (4) extension of limits of talus pile beyond the ballistic limit of ejecta trajectories. The model is used to predict the features of lunar and Martian cones, assuming that they erupted under conditions qualitatively similar to Etna's Northeast crater.
The behavior of volcanoes was studied by geologic mapping, petrologic investigations of lava and xenoliths, physical measurements, and theoretical modelling. Field observations were conducted in Alaska (Nunivak Island), Iceland, Hawaii (Mauna Kea), Italy (Etna, Stromboli), and Arizona. The results are discussed and compared with known data for lunar and planetary gelogy. Field methods used for the volcano research are cited and a list is given of all participating scientists and students. Publications and abstracts resulting from the research are also listed.
An expression is proposed for radial thickness variations in lunar impact crater ejecta. The expression was inferred from available cratering data and semi-empirical calculations for approximate modeling of variations in ejecta thickness with the increasing range of lunar craters. A table of predicted stratigraphic sections for the Apollo Landing sites is included. The predictions were made by using this expression. The results suggest that the pre-Nubium crustal material at upland Apollo sites lies at depths of above 280 up to 1940 m.
Some field observations of the occurrence of deep-seated rock fragments in three terrestrial volcanic features that may have counterparts on the moon or Mars are reviewed, and results of numerical hydrodynamic calculations of the eruption of these types of volcanoes are presented. In particular, the transport of entrained fragmental debris is investigated for the surface (muzzle) velocity of fragments that it yields as a function of fragment size and various values of surface gravity. The implications of these observations and inferences for possible future space missions are examined.
Data on terrestrial eruptions of pyroclastic material and ballistic considerations suggest that in the lunar environment (vacuum and reduced gravity) low-rimmed pyroclastic rings are formed rather than the high-rimmed cinder cones so abundant on the earth. Dark blanketing deposits in the Taurus-Littrow region (Apollo 17 landing area) are interpreted as being at least partly composed of lunar counterparts of terrestrial cinder cones.
Consideration of the topography and shape of incompressible, nonrotating, isothermal, spherical objects as an approach to the study of the topography and shape of smaller planetary bodies. A static model and a creep deformation model are applied in the process. Factors and forces which may have a bearing on the geometry and topography of small planetary bodies are discussed.
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Apollo 12 lunar module impact laboratory simulation, investigating possible downrange ballistic effects and cratering process