Engineering topics

McCollum, David

Publications and source records attributed to McCollum, David.

At least 19 records

DOE OSTI2024

2023 Southeast Decarbonization Workshop

Decarbonization refers to a large-scale shift away from fossil fuel sources for energy production and toward energy sources, energy end-use practices, and land management approaches that do not result in a net increase of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Decarbonization in the Southeastern United States is distinguished from that of other regions in the country by its potential impact on historically underserved populations and the ways this region’s human–environmental systems are predicted to fare in a climate-altered world. In parallel, ensuring a clean energy transition requires the ability to engage entire communities that are motivated to learn, build, and encourage the spread of so-called clean tech. In contrast to other technology trends from the past century, the foundation of clean tech is a shared sense of purpose—a collective strategy to mitigate the threats of climate change and support a better environment for everyone. As seen in the Office of Science and Technology Policy’s (OSTP’s) Net-Zero Technology Action Plan (2023), decarbonization is best accelerated by simultaneous investments in Innovation, Demonstration, and Deployment of technology in tandem with intentional policy and community-based solutions. The 2023 Southeast Decarbonization Workshop, hosted by the Georgia Institute of Technology (Georgia Tech) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), aimed to bring together members of our communities and a group of regional experts to strategize about opportunities in this important area, as well as to incorporate the important pillar of System Interactions to bridge the gap between clean tech’s intent and its impact.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

MultiSector Dynamics: 2023 Inaugural Workshop Report

Preface The MultiSector Dynamics (MSD) Community of Practice (CoP) hosted an inaugural workshop on October 3-5, 2023 at the University of California, Davis, to bring together members of the MSD community of practice to advance understanding of the co-evolution of human and natural systems, and to build the next generation of tools that bridge sectors, scales, and systems to realize a more resilient and equitable future. The theme of the workshop was "Advancing Complex Adaptive Human-Earth Systems Science in a World of Interconnected Risks". This document outlines the motivation for the workshop, its goals and objectives, the application process, the agenda, overviews of the training sessions offered to the workshop participants and a summary of each breakout session. The MSD workshop report further discusses the feedback from workshop participants and presents some reflections and next steps. The MSD Workshop organizers thank the DOE Office of Science, Earth and Environmental System Modeling, MultiSector Dynamics program area for financial support of its activities through the Integrated Multisector Multiscale Modeling (IM3) project. For more information related to the broader DOE MultiSector Dynamics Program please see https://climatemodeling.science.energy.gov/program-area/multisector-dynamics. D.L.M. and C.M.B. acknowledge support from the Laboratory Directed Research and Development Program of Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), managed by UT-Battelle, LLC, for the US Department of Energy (DOE). Disclaimer This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither theUnited States Government nor any agency thereof, nor Battelle Memorial Institute, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy, complete- ness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial products, process, or service by trade name,trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof, or Battelle Memorial Institute. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory operated by Battelle for the United States Department of Energy Available from:Office of Scientific and Technical Information http://www.OSTI.gov multisectordynamics.org This work is made available under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution- NonCommercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC 4.0) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4 Suggested citation: Monier, E., Reed, P.M., Vernon, C.R., Hadjimichael, A., Brelsford, C.M., Burleyson, C.B., Dyreson, A.R., Fletcher, S.M., Giang, A., Gupta, R.S., Jackson, N.D., Jones, A.D., Lamontagne, J.R., McCollum, D.L., Morris, J.F., Moss, R.H., Peng, W., Saari, R.K., Srikrishnan, V., Szinai, J.K., Yoon, J. (2024) MultiSector Dynamics: 2023 Inaugural Workshop Report. MSD-LIVE Data Repository. doi:10.57931/2371710.

Monier, Erwan↗

DOE OSTI2024

MSD CoP Webinar: Applied Science for Decision-Making at the Water-Energy Nexus

Context: This webinar was hosted by the MultiSector Dynamics Community of Practice (MSD CoP; https://multisectordynamics.org). Abstract: The energy transition is a game-changer across multiple sectors, requiring researchers and practitioners to re-evaluate the evolving connections between climate, water, and power systems, as well as the associated co-management of resources and decision-making. In anticipation of new technologies, policies, business models, and other solutions, applied science for decision-making at the climate-water-energy nexus is needed to support transitions with the expected climate resilience, maintained and enhanced energy security, thriving economies, and equity considerations. Through panelists' applied research and operational experience, the webinar will provide lesson-learnt in how to increase the readiness of water-energy research and become actionable in the context of energy transitions. A number of themes will be discussed, including the connection between growing computational resources and complexity of models, and the implications on the intended users, the actual actionable products, the availability of data for validation of the models, uncertainty characterization and decision-making under uncertainty, and the communication of the novelty to decision-makers and the public. Presenters : David McCollum (Oak Ridge National Laboratory; Co-Chair), and Gokul Iyer (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory; Co-Chair), Curt Jawdy (Tennessee Valley Authority), Nathalie Voisin (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory), and Andrew D. Jones (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory) Moderator: Pat M. Reed (MSD CoP Facilitation Team) This webinar was held on: April 30, 2024 from 1-2 PM ET

Energy↗

DOE OSTI2022

Which “second-best” climate policies are best? Simulating cost-effective policy mixes for passenger vehicles

In the real-world of political opposition and complex market failures, carbon pricing alone will not achieve deep GHG mitigation targets. Hence, in this study, we search for the most cost-effective “second-best” policies. Focusing on the light-duty vehicle sector in the case of Canada, we compare several policies in terms of effectiveness (regarding 2030 GHG goals) and mitigation costs, namely: (i) a carbon tax; (ii) a vehicle emission standard (or VES); (iii) a zero emissions vehicle (ZEV) mandate, and (iv) combinations of all three at various stringencies. In this effort, we apply the AUtomaker-consumer Model (AUM), which endogenously simulates consumer and automaker decisions and technological change. Comparing individual policies, the regulations are about three times more expensive than the carbon tax. Among “second-best” policies, the VES is cheaper than a ZEV mandate at lower stringencies, but at higher stringencies the two are similarly efficient (both incentivize widespread ZEV deployment). In policy mixes, cost-effectiveness is improved by a carbon tax. Specifically, inclusion of a CDN$100–150/tonne tax can achieve targets while being 30–40% less costly than a regulation alone. We suggest that policymakers implement carbon pricing as stringently as politically feasible (for efficiency), complemented by regulations as needed (for efficacy) to meet GHG targets.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

How to design a zero-emissions vehicle mandate? Simulating impacts on sales, GHG emissions and cost-effectiveness using the AUtomaker-Consumer Model (AUM)

We report although numerous studies investigate the impacts of policy on zero-emissions vehicle (ZEV) sales, few address the impacts of a ZEV sales mandate and its particular design features. We use the AUtomaker-consumer Model (AUM) to simulate varying designs of a ZEV mandate in Canada's light-duty vehicle sector, requiring 30% ZEV sales by 2030. Design features include: different penalties for non-compliance, different allocations of credits per ZEV type, and the allowance of banking credits across years. For each policy design, we consider impacts on ZEV adoption, GHG emissions, consumer surplus, automaker profits, and overall policy cost-effectiveness. Results demonstrate trade-offs among the policy designs. Generally, ZEV mandate designs that are more effective at increasing ZEV adoption and decreasing GHG emissions also induce larger reductions in consumer surplus and automaker profits. To achieve the ZEV sales goal, simulations show that a higher non-compliance penalty (CDN$ 10k per credit) is needed. ZEV adoption and GHG reductions are also improved by a “One credit per ZEV” scheme, rather than a “California-style” scheme that gives multiple credits per battery-electric vehicle. Further, allowing automakers to bank credits softens the policy impact on profit and increases automaker compliance in initial years. Across these different design combinations, we find that the most cost-effective design ($CDN/tonne mitigated, including consumer surplus and automaker profits impacts) utilizes a $10k non-compliance penalty and “One credit per ZEV” system that allows banking. Our analysis demonstrates the importance of various ZEV mandate design features, and the complex trade-offs involved among various policy goals.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Techno-Economic Analysis of Product Diversification Options for Sustainability of the Monticello and Prairie Island Nuclear Power Plants

The objective of this work was to perform techno-economic analysis (TEA) of hybrid options that could be integrated with light water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants (NPPs) in order to improve the viability and sustainability of existing LWRs through product diversification by utilizing nuclear energy not only to produce grid electricity but to also produce carbon free products such as hydrogen, ammonia or synthetic fuels. Much of the analysis herein could be generally applied to any LWR (high temperature steam electrolysis- HTSE design), but hydrogen demand and the optimization of the HTSE was completed with specific collaboration and data from Xcel Energy’s Prairie Island and Monticello nuclear generating stations and the surrounding market and logistics potential in the greater Minneapolis region. Xcel Energy has set aggressive goals with regards to decarbonization, including an 80% reduction in CO 2 emissions from 2005 levels, by 2030 and 100% carbon free by 2050. Other TEAs regarding hydrogen production with nuclear energy have been completed in collaboration with other utility companies previously. Besides being the first TEA in this regard specific to Xcel Energy and the surrounding markets and logistics, this TEA adds to the previously completed TEAs by providing the most up to date and state of the art analysis and optimization of the hydrogen production plant integrated with nuclear power (NPP-HTSE).

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2018

Mitigation scenarios must cater to new users

Climate change mitigation scenarios are being utilized by an ever-wider user base, including companies and financial institutions. Increased collaboration between scenario producers and these new communities will be mutually beneficial, educating companies and investors on climate risks while helping to ground climate science in practical real-world needs.

finance, scenarios, TCFD↗

DOE OSTI2018

Energy investment needs for fulfilling the Paris Agreement and achieving the Sustainable Development Goals

Investments are often recognized as the ‘lifeblood’ of the global energy system. Low-carbon investments can provide the means for initiating a system transformation, as called for by the Paris Agreement and Sustainable Development Goals. Improving our understanding of the scale and nature of these investments under diverging technology and policy futures is therefore of great importance to decision makers. Here we show that the pronounced reallocation of the investment portfolio needed for transforming the energy system will not be instigated by the current suite of Nationally Determined Contributions. Charting a course toward ‘well below 2 °C’ instead requires that low-carbon investments overtake fossil investments globally before 2025 and then continue to grow from there. Pursuing the 1.5 °C target demands a marked up-scaling in low-carbon capita beyond that demanded by 2 °C. The investment needs for making progress on certain other SDG targets are small relative to those for energy.

McCollum, David↗

DOE OSTI2017

Decomposing passenger transport futures: Comparing results of global integrated assessment models

The transport sector is growing fast in terms of energy use and accompanying greenhouse gas emissions. Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are used widely to analyze energy system transitions over a decadal time frame to help inform and evaluating international climate policy. As part of this, IAMs also explore pathways of decarbonizing the transport sector. This study quantifies the contribution of changes in activity growth, modal structure, energy intensity and fuel mix to the projected passenger transport carbon emission pathways. The Laspeyres index decomposition method is used to compare results across models and scenarios, and against historical transport trends. Broadly-speaking the models show similar trends, projecting continuous transport activity growth, reduced energy intensity and in some cases modal shift to carbon-intensive modes - similar to those observed historically in a business-as-usual scenario. In policy-induced mitigation scenarios further enhancements of energy efficiency and fuel switching is seen, showing a clear break with historical trends. Reduced activity growth and modal shift (towards less carbon-intensive modes) only have a limited contribution to emission reduction. Measures that could induce such changes could possibly complement the aggressive, technology switch required in the current scenarios to reach internationally agreed climate targets.

Edelenbosch, Oreane Y.↗

DOE OSTI2015

Future energy system challenges for Africa: Insights from Integrated Assessment Models

Although Africa’s share in the global energy system is only small today, the ongoing population growth and economic development imply that this can change significantly. In this paper, we discuss long-term energy developments in Africa using the results of the LIMITS model inter-comparison study. The analysis focusses on the position of Africa in the wider global energy system and climate mitigation. The results show a considerable spread in model outcomes. Without specific climate policy, Africa’s share in global CO 2 emissions is projected to increase from around 1-4% today to 3-23% by 2100. In all models, emissions only start to become really significant on a global scale after 2050. Furthermore, by 2030 still around 50% of total household energy use is supplied through traditional bio-energy, in contrast to existing ambitions from international organisations to provide access to modern energy for all. After 2050, the energy mix is projected to converge towards a global average energy mix with high shares of fossil fuels and electricity use. Finally, although the continent is now a large net exporter of oil and gas, towards 2050 it most likely needs most of its resources to meet its rapidly growing domestic demand. With respect to climate policy, the rapid expansion of the industrial and the power sector also create large mitigation potential and thereby the possibility to align the investment peak in the energy system with climate policy and potential revenues from international carbon trading.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2015

Chapter 6 Assessing Transformation Pathways. In: Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Stabilizing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations will require large-scale transformations in human societies, from the way that we produce and consume energy to how we use the land surface. A natural question in this context is what will be the ‘transformation pathway’ towards stabilization; that is, how do we get from here to there? The topic of this chapter is transformation pathways. The chapter is primarily motivated by three questions. First, what are the near-term and future choices that define transformation pathways, including the goal itself, the emissions pathway to the goal, technologies used for and sectors contributing to mitigation, the nature of international coordination, and mitigation policies? Second, what are the key characteristics of different transformation pathways, including the rates of emissions reductions and deployment of low-carbon energy, the magnitude and timing of aggregate economic costs, and the implications for other policy objectives such as those generally associated with sustainable development? Third, how will actions taken today influence the options that might be available in the future? As part of the assessment in this chapter, data from over 1000 new scenarios published since the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) were collected from integrated modelling research groups, many from large-scale model intercomparison studies. In comparison to AR4, new scenarios, both in this AR5 dataset and more broadly in the literature assessed in this chapter, consider more ambitious concentration goals, a wider range of assumptions about technology, and more possibilities for delays in global mitigation and fragmented international action.

Clarke, Leon E.↗

DOE OSTI2015

CO₂ emission mitigation and fossil fuel markets: Dynamic and international aspects of climate policies

This paper explores a multi-model scenario ensemble to assess the impacts of idealized and non-idealized climate change stabilization policies on fossil fuel markets. Under idealized conditions climate policies significantly reduce coal use in the short- and long-term. Reductions in oil and gas use are much smaller, particularly until 2030, but revenues decrease much more because oil and gas prices are higher than coal prices. A first deviation from optimal transition pathways is delayed action that relaxes global emission targets until 2030 in accordance with the Copenhagen pledges. Fossil fuel markets revert back to the no-policy case: though coal use increases strongest, revenue gains are higher for oil and gas. To balance the carbon budget over the 21st century, the long-term reallocation of fossil fuels is significantly larger—twice and more—than the short-term distortion. This amplifying effect results from coal lock-in and inter-fuel substitution effects to balance the full-century carbon budget. The second deviation from the optimal transition pathway relaxes the global participation assumption. The result here is less clear-cut across models, as we find carbon leakage effects ranging from positive to negative because trade and substitution patterns of coal, oil, and gas differ across models. In summary, distortions of fossil fuel markets resulting from relaxed short-term global emission targets are more important and less uncertain than the issue of carbon leakage from early mover action.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2015

Locked into Copenhagen pledges - Implications of short-term emission targets for the cost and feasibility of long-term climate goals

This paper provides an overview of the AMPERE intermodeling comparison with focus on the implications of near-term policies for the costs and attainability of long-term climate objectives. Ten modeling teams participated in the project to explore the consequences of global emissions following the proposed policy stringency of the national pledges from the Copenhagen Accord and Cancún Agreements to 2030. Specific features compared to earlier assessments are the explicit consideration of near-term 2030 emissions targets as well as the systematic sensitivity analysis for the availability and potential of mitigation technologies. Our estimates show that a 2030 mitigation effort comparable to the pledges would result in a further "lock-in" of the energy system into fossil fuels and thus impede the required energy transformation to reach low greenhouse-gas stabilization levels (450ppm CO2e). Major implications include significant increases in mitigation costs, increased risk that low stabilization targets become unattainable, and reduced chances of staying below the proposed temperature change target of 2C. With respect to technologies, we find that following the pledge pathways to 2030 would narrow policy choices, and increases the risks that some currently optional technologies, such as nuclear or carbon capture and storage (CCS), will become "a must" by 2030.

Riahi, Keywan↗

DOE OSTI2014

Post-2020 climate agreements in the major economies assessed in the light of global models

Integrated assessment models can help in quantifying the implications of international climate agreements and regional climate action. This paper reviews scenario results from model intercomparison projects to explore different possible outcomes of post-2020 climate negotiations, recently announced pledges and their relation to the 2°C target. We provide key information for all the major economies, such as the year of emission peaking, regional carbon budgets and emissions allowances. We highlight the distributional consequences of climate policies, and discuss the role of carbon markets for financing clean energy investments, and achieving efficiency and equity.

Tavoni, Massimo↗

DOE OSTI2014

Fossil resource and energy security dynamics in conventional and carbon-constrained worlds

Fossil resource endowments and the future development of fossil fuel prices are important factors that will critically influence the nature and direction of the global energy system. In this paper we analyze a multi-model ensemble of long-term energy and emissions scenarios that were developed within the framework of the EMF27 integrated assessment model inter-comparison exercise. The diverse nature of these models highlights large uncertainties in the likely development of fossil resource (coal, oil, and natural gas) consumption, trade, and prices over the course of the twenty-first century and under different climate policy frameworks. We explore and explain some of the differences across scenarios and models and compare the scenario results with fossil resource estimates from the literature. A robust finding across the suite of IAMs is that the cumulative fossil fuel consumption foreseen by the models is well within the bounds of estimated recoverable reserves and resources. Hence, fossil resource constraints are, in and of themselves, unlikely to limit future GHG emissions. Our analysis also shows that climate mitigation policies could lead to a major reallocation of financial flows between regions, in terms of expenditures on fossil fuels and carbon, and can help to alleviate near-term energy security concerns via the reductions in oil imports and increases in energy system diversity they will help to motivate.

McCollum, David↗

DOE OSTI2013

A Cross-model Comparison of Global Long-term Technology Diffusion under a 2°C Climate Change Control Target

We investigate the long-term global energy technology diffusion patterns required to reach a stringent climate change target with a maximum average atmospheric temperature increase of 2°C. If the anthropogenic temperature increase is to be limited to 2°C, total CO 2 emissions have to be reduced massively, so as to reach substantial negative values during the second half of the century. Particularly power sector CO 2 emissions should become negative from around 2050 onwards according to most models used for this analysis in order to compensate for GHG emissions in other sectors where abatement is more costly. The annual additional capacity deployment intensity (expressed in GW/yr) for solar and wind energy until 2030 needs to be around that recently observed for coal-based power plants, and will have to be several times higher in the period 2030–2050. Relatively high agreement exists across models in terms of the aggregated low-carbon energy system cost requirements on the supply side until 2050, which amount to about 50 trillion US$.

Climate policies↗

DOE OSTI2013

The distribution of the major economies’ effort in the Durban platform scenarios

The feasibility of achieving climate stabilization consistent with the objective of 2C is heavily influenced by how the effort in terms of mitigation and economic resources will be distributed among the major economies. This paper provides a multi-model quantifications of the mitigation commitment in ten major regions of the world for a diversity of allocation schemes. Our results indicate that a stylized policy with uniform carbon pricing and no transfer payments would yield an uneven distribution of policy costs, which would be lower, higher and significantly higher than the average for the OECD, developing economies and energy exporters respectively. We show that resource sharing burden sharing schemes would not resolve the issue of cost distribution. An effort sharing scheme which equalizes policy costs would yield an allocation of allowances in line with the aspirational targets of the OECD countries, and which would peak before 2030 for China. In all cases, a large international carbon market would emerge.

bioenergy↗

DOE OSTI2013

ENERGY INVESTMENTS UNDER CLIMATE POLICY: A COMPARISON OF GLOBAL MODELS

The levels of investment needed to mobilize an energy system transformation and mitigate climate change are not known with certainty. This paper aims to inform the ongoing dialogue and in so doing to guide public policy and strategic corporate decision making. Within the framework of the LIMITS integrated assessment model comparison exercise, we analyze a multi-IAM ensemble of long-term energy and greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Our study provides insight into several critical but uncertain areas related to the future investment environment, for example in terms of where capital expenditures may need to flow regionally, into which sectors they might be concentrated, and what policies could be helpful in spurring these financial resources. We find that stringent climate policies consistent with a 2°C climate change target would require a considerable upscaling of investments into low-carbon energy and energy efficiency, reaching approximately $45 trillion (range: $30–$75 trillion) cumulative between 2010 and 2050, or about $1.1 trillion annually. This represents an increase of some $30 trillion ($10–$55 trillion), or $0.8 trillion per year, beyond what investments might otherwise be in a reference scenario that assumes the continuation of present and planned emissions-reducing policies throughout the world. In other words, a substantial "clean-energy investment gap" of some $800 billion/yr exists — notably on the same order of magnitude as present-day subsidies for fossil energy and electricity worldwide ($523 billion). Unless the gap is filled rather quickly, the 2°C target could potentially become out of reach.

carbon financing↗