Operational and Technical Updates to the Object Reentry Survival Analysis Tool
No abstract available
Bacon, John B.↗
Engineering topics
Matney, Mark J.
Publications and source records attributed to Matney, Mark J..
NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model ORDEM 3.1 - Software User Guide
This National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM) 3.1 Software User Guide accompanies delivery of the latest upgraded version of the model, ORDEM 3.1. The user guide also provides a top-level program description and a list of capabilities. It includes descriptions of runtime error and information codes, input/output file formats, runtimes for different orbit configurations, and how to use uncertainty files. ORDEM 3.1 supersedes the previous NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) models – ORDEM 3.0 (Stansbery, et al. 2014) and ORDEM2000 (Liou, et al. 2002). The availability of new sensor and in situ data, re-analysis of older data, and development of new analytical techniques has enabled the construction of this more comprehensive and sophisticated model. An upgraded graphical user interface (GUI) is integrated with the software. This upgraded GUI uses project-oriented organization and provides the user with graphical representations of numerous output data products. For example, these range from the conventional flux vs. average debris size (or altitude bin) for chosen analysis orbits (or views) to the more complex color-contoured, two-dimensional (2-D) directional flux diagrams in local spacecraft elevation and azimuth. The current model, ORDEM 3.1, supports spacecraft as well as telescope/radar project assessments. ORDEM 3.1 contains updated debris populations covering low Earth orbit (LEO, up to 2000 km altitude) to geosynchronous orbit (GEO, up to 40,000 km altitude) and can assess debris calculations up to year 2050, extending coverage past the previous limit of 2035 in ORDEM 3.0. Although populations differ from its predecessor, ORDEM 3.1 is functionally the same as ORDEM 3.0 and can support ORDEM 3.0 projects through backward compatibility.
Vavrin, Andrew B.↗
Oblate-Earth Effects on the Calculation of Ec During Spacecraft Reentry
The bulge in the Earth at its equator has been shown to lead to a clustering of natural decays biased to occur towards the equator and away from the orbit's extreme latitudes. Such clustering must be considered when predicting the Expectation of Casualty (Ec) during a natural decay because of the clustering of the human population in the same lower latitudes. This study expands upon prior work, and formalizes the correction that must be made to the calculation of the average exposed population density as a result of this effect. Although a generic equation can be derived from this work to approximate the effects of gravitational and atmospheric perturbations on a final decay, such an equation averages certain important subtleties in achieving a best fit over all conditions. The authors recommend that direct simulation be used to calculate the true Ec for any specific entry as a more accurate method. A generic equation is provided, represented as a function of ballistic number and inclination of the entering spacecraft over the credible range of ballistic numbers.
Bacon, John B.↗
Algorithms for the Computation of Debris Risk
Determining the risks from space debris involve a number of statistical calculations. These calculations inevitably involve assumptions about geometry - including the physical geometry of orbits and the geometry of satellites. A number of tools have been developed in NASA’s Orbital Debris Program Office to handle these calculations; many of which have never been published before. These include algorithms that are used in NASA’s Orbital Debris Engineering Model ORDEM 3.0, as well as other tools useful for computing orbital collision rates and ground casualty risks. This paper presents an introduction to these algorithms and the assumptions upon which they are based.
Matney, Mark J.↗
An Electric Propulsion "Shepherd" for Active Debris Removal that Utilizes Ambient Gas as Propellant
There is a growing consensus among the space debris technical community that limiting the long ]term growth of debris in Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) requires that space users limit the accumulation of mass in orbit. This is partially accomplished by mitigation measures for current and future LEO systems, but there is now interest in removing mass that has already accumulated in LEO from more than 50 years of space activity (termed "Active Debris Removal", or ADR). Many ADR proposals face complex technical issues of how to grapple with uncooperative targets. Some researchers have suggested the use of conventional ion thrusters to gently "blow" on objects to gradually change their orbits, without ever having to come into physical contact with the target. The chief drawback with these methods is the cost per object removed. Typically, a space "tug" or an ion-drive "shepherd" can only remove a few objects per mission due to limited propellant. Unless a costeffective way that removes tens of objects per mission can be found, it is not clear that any of the ideas so far proposed will be economically viable. In this paper, a modified version of the ion-drive "shepherd" is proposed that uses ambient atmospheric gases in LEO as propellant for the ion drives. This method has the potential to greatly extend the operational lifetime of an ADR mission, as the only mission limit is the lifetime of the components of the satellite itself, not on its fuel supply. An ambient-gas ion-drive "shepherd" would the local atmospheric drag on an object by ionizing and accelerating the ambient gas the target would have encountered anyway, thereby hastening its decay. Also, the "shepherd" satellite itself has a great deal of flexibility to maneuver back to high altitude and rendezvous with its next target using the ion drive not limited by fuel supply. However, the amount of available ambient gas is closely tied to the altitude of the spacecraft. It may be possible to use a "hybrid" approach that supplements high-altitude ion-drive operations with stored gas, and transitions to ambient gas at lower altitudes. This paper will include realistic numbers on the estimated times needed to deorbit objects from different orbit regimes using drives that either partially or completely take advantage of ambient gas. It will conclude with recommendations on whether this is a viable candidate for future ADR efforts.
Matney, Mark J.↗
A New Bond Albedo for Performing Orbital Debris Brightness to Size Transformations
We have developed a technique for estimating the intrinsic size distribution of orbital debris objects via optical measurements alone. The process is predicated on the empirically observed power-law size distribution of debris (as indicated by radar RCS measurements) and the log-normal probability distribution of optical albedos as ascertained from phase (Lambertian) and range-corrected telescopic brightness measurements. Since the observed distribution of optical brightness is the product integral of the size distribution of the parent [debris] population with the albedo probability distribution, it is a straightforward matter to transform a given distribution of optical brightness back to a size distribution by the appropriate choice of a single albedo value. This is true because the integration of a powerlaw with a log-normal distribution (Fredholm Integral of the First Kind) yields a Gaussian-blurred power-law distribution with identical power-law exponent. Application of a single albedo to this distribution recovers a simple power-law [in size] which is linearly offset from the original distribution by a constant whose value depends on the choice of the albedo. Significantly, there exists a unique Bond albedo which, when applied to an observed brightness distribution, yields zero offset and therefore recovers the original size distribution. For physically realistic powerlaws of negative slope, the proper choice of albedo recovers the parent size distribution by compensating for the observational bias caused by the large number of small objects that appear anomalously large (bright) - and thereby skew the small population upward by rising above the detection threshold - and the lower number of large objects that appear anomalously small (dim). Based on this comprehensive analysis, a value of 0.13 should be applied to all orbital debris albedo-based brightness-to-size transformations regardless of data source. Its prima fascia genesis, derived and constructed from the current RCS to size conversion methodology (SiBAM Size-Based Estimation Model) and optical data reduction standards, assures consistency in application with the prior canonical value of 0.1. Herein we present the empirical and mathematical arguments for this approach and by example apply it to a comprehensive set of photometric data acquired via NASA's Liquid Mirror Telescopes during the 2000-2001 observing season.
Mulrooney, Mark K.↗
Space Debris Symposium (A6.) Measurements and Space Surveillance (1.): Measurements of the Small Particle Debris Cloud from the 11 January, 2007 Chinese Anti-satellite Test
On January 11, 2007, the Chinese military conducted a test of an anti-satellite (ASAT) system, destroying their own Fengyun-1C spacecraft with an interceptor missile. The resulting hypervelocity collision created an unprecedented number of tracked debris - more than 2500 objects. These objects represent only those large enough for the US Space Surveillance Network (SSN) to track - typically objects larger than about 5-10 cm in diameter. There are expected to be even more debris objects at sizes too small to be seen and tracked by the SSN. Because of the altitude of the target satellite (865 x 845 km orbit), many of the debris are expected to have long orbital lifetimes and contribute to the orbital debris environment for decades to come. In the days and weeks following the ASAT test, NASA was able to use Lincoln Laboratory s Haystack radar on several occasions to observe portions of the ASAT debris cloud. Haystack has the capability of detecting objects down to less than one centimeter in diameter, and a large number of centimeter-sized particles corresponding to the ASAT cloud were clearly seen in the data. While Haystack cannot track these objects, the statistical sampling procedures NASA uses can give an accurate statistical picture of the characteristics of the debris from a breakup event. For years computer models based on data from ground hypervelocity collision tests (e.g., the SOCIT test) and orbital collision experiments (e.g., the P-78 and Delta-180 on-orbit collisions) have been used to predict the extent and characteristics of such hypervelocity collision debris clouds, but until now there have not been good ways to verify these models in the centimeter size regime. It is believed that unplanned collisions of objects in space similar to ASAT tests will drive the long-term future evolution of the debris environment in near-Earth space. Therefore, the Chinese ASAT test provides an excellent opportunity to test the models used to predict the future debris environment. For this study, Haystack detection events are compared to model predictions to test the model assumptions, including debris size distribution, velocity distribution, and assumptions about momentum transfer between the target and interceptor. In this paper we will present the results of these and other measurements on the size and extent of collisional breakup debris clouds.
Matney, Mark J.↗
GEO Population Estimates using Optical Survey Data
Optical survey data taken using the NASA Michigan Orbital Debris Survey Telescope (MODEST) gives us an opportunity to statistically sample faint object population in the Geosynchronous (GEO) and near-GEO environment. This paper will summarize the MODEST survey work that has been conducted by NASA since 2002, and will outline the techniques employed to arrive at the current population estimates in the GEO environment for dim objects difficult to detect and track using current systems in the Space Surveillance Network (SSN). Some types of orbits have a higher detection rate based on what parts of the GEO belt is being observed, a straightforward statistical technique is used to debias these observations to arrive at an estimate of the total population potentially visible to the telescope. The size and magnitude distributions of these fainter debris objects are markedly different from the catalogued population. GEO debris consists of at least two different populations, one which follows the standard breakup power law and one which has anomalously high Area-to-Mass Ratios (1 to approx. 30 square meters per kilogram; a sheet of paper = approx. 13 square meters per kilogram). The Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC) is investigating objects in GEO orbits with anomalously high Area-to-Mass Ratios (AMRs). The ESA Space Debris Telescope discovered this population and has and its properties of inclinations (0 to 30 degrees), changing eccentricities (0 and 0.6), and mean motions (approx. 1 rev), will be presented. The accepted interpretation of this orbital behavior is that solar radiation pressure drives the perturbations causing time varying inclinations and eccentricities. The orbital parameters are unstable for this population and thus difficult to predict. Their dim visual magnitudes and photometric variability make observations a challenge. The IADC has enlisted a series of observatories (participating institutions: University of Michigan/CTIO, Astronomical Institute University of Bern, Boeing LTS / AMOS, Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics) at different longitudes. Complete observational coverage over periods of days to months will provide a better understanding of the properties, such as solar radiation pressure effects on orbital elements, size, shape, attitude, color variations, and spectral characteristics. Results from recent observational programs will be summarized, and includes a description of the orbit elements prediction processes, a summary of the metric tracking performance, and some photometric characteristics of this class of debris.
Barker, Edwin S.↗
Gravitational Focusing and the Computation of an Accurate Moon/Mars Cratering Ratio
There have been a number of attempts to use asteroid populations to simultaneously compute cratering rates on the Moon and bodies elsewhere in the Solar System to establish the cratering ratio (e.g., [1],[2]). These works use current asteroid orbit population databases combined with collision rate calculations based on orbit intersections alone. As recent work on meteoroid fluxes [3] have highlighted, however, collision rates alone are insufficient to describe the cratering rates on planetary surfaces - especially planets with stronger gravitational fields than the Moon, such as Earth and Mars. Such calculations also need to include the effects of gravitational focusing, whereby the spatial density of the slower-moving impactors is preferentially "focused" by the gravity of the body. This leads overall to higher fluxes and cratering rates, and is highly dependent on the detailed velocity distributions of the impactors. In this paper, a comprehensive gravitational focusing algorithm originally developed to describe fluxes of interplanetary meteoroids [3] is applied to the collision rates and cratering rates of populations of asteroids and long-period comets to compute better cratering ratios for terrestrial bodies in the Solar System. These results are compared to the calculations of other researchers.
Matney, Mark J.↗
Survey and Chase: A New Method of Observations For The Michigan Orbital Debris Survey Telescope (MODEST)
For more than 40 years astronauts have been observing Earth, taking photographs or digital images from their spacecraft. Today, a robust program of observation from the International Space Station (ISS) has yielded hundreds of thousands of images of the Earth s surface collected since 2001. Seeing Earth through the eyes of an astronaut is exciting to the general public, and the images are popular in classrooms. Because the ISS has an orbital inclination of 51.6 degrees (the north-south limits of the orbit are at 51.6 degrees latitude), high latitude observations are common. Some of the most striking images collected include views of polar phenomena. Astronauts routinely pass above brilliant red and green aurora; view high, wispy clouds at the top of the atmosphere; or look down on glaciers and floating ice rafts. These images, framed and captured by humans, are easily interpreted by students and teachers. Astronaut observations provide a way to visualize complicated polar phenomena and communicate about them to students of all ages. Over the next two years, astronauts aboard the ISS will formally focus their observations on polar phenomena as participants in the International Polar Year (IPY). Imagery acquisition from the ISS will be coordinated with other IPY scientists staging studies and field campaigns on the ground. The imagery collected from the ISS will be cataloged and served on NASA s web-based database of images, http://eol.jsc.nasa.gov . The website allows investigators, students and teachers to search through the imagery, assemble image datasets, and download the imagery and the metadata. We display some of the most spectacular examples of polar imagery and demonstrate NASA s database of astronaut images of Earth.
Abercromby, Kira J.↗
The New NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model ORDEM2000
The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office at Johnson Space Center has developed a new computer-based orbital debris engineering model, ORDEM2000, which describes the orbital debris environment in the low Earth orbit region between 200 and 2000 km altitude. The model is appropriate for those engineering solutions requiring knowledge and estimates of the orbital debris environment (debris spatial density, flux, etc.). ORDEM2000 can also be used as a benchmark for ground-based debris measurements and observations. We incorporated a large set of observational data, covering the object size range from 10 mm to 10 m, into the ORDEM2000 debris database, utilizing a maximum likelihood estimator to convert observations into debris population probability distribution functions. These functions then form the basis of debris populations. We developed a finite element model to process the debris populations to form the debris environment. A more capable input and output structure and a user-friendly graphical user interface are also implemented in the model. ORDEM2000 has been subjected to a significant verification and validation effort. This document describes ORDEM2000, which supersedes the previous model, ORDEM96. The availability of new sensor and in situ data, as well as new analytical techniques, has enabled the construction of this new model. Section 1 describes the general requirements and scope of an engineering model. Data analyses and the theoretical formulation of the model are described in Sections 2 and 3. Section 4 describes the verification and validation effort and the sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. Finally, Section 5 describes the graphical user interface, software installation, and test cases for the user.
Liou, Jer-Chyi↗
The Use of the Satellite Breakup Risk Assessment Model (SBRAM) to Characterize Collision Risk to Manned Spacecraft
NASA uses environment models such as ORDEM96 to characterize the long-term orbital debris collision hazard for spacecraft in LEO. Occasionally, however, there are breakups of satellites or rocket bodies that create enhanced collision hazard for a period of time. This enhanced collision hazard can pose increased risks to space operations - especially those involving manned missions where the tolerance for risk is very low. NASA has developed SBRAM to simulate the enhanced debris environment in the days and weeks that follow such a breakup. This simulation provides the kind of risk probabilities that can be used by mission planners to consider if changes are warranted for the mission. Announcements of breakups come to NASA from US Space Command as soon as they are identified. The pre-breakup orbit and time of breakup are used to determine the initial conditions of the explosion. SBRAM uses the latest explosion models developed at NASA to simulate a debris cloud for the breakup. The model uses a Monte Carlo technique to create a random debris cloud from the probability distributions in the breakup model. Each piece of debris randomly created in the cloud is propagated in a deterministic manner to include the effects of drag and other orbital perturbations. The detailed geometry of each simulated close approach to the target spacecraft is noted and logged and the collision probability is computed using an estimated probability density in down-range and cross-range positions of both the target spacecraft and debris object. The collision probability is computed from the overlap of these probability densities for each close-approach geometry and summed over all computed conjunctions. Cloud propagation runs over the desired time interval are then repeated until the scale of the collision risk can be estimated to a desired precision. This paper presents an overview of the SBRAM model and a number of examples, both real and hypothetical, to demonstrate its use. In addition, a number of different examples are shown how the data can be used by decision makers on issues such as spacecraft orientation and timing of EVAs.
Matney, Mark J.↗