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Martin Mlynczak

Publications and source records attributed to Martin Mlynczak.

At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2023

WACCM6 Projections of Polar Mesospheric Cloud Abundance Over the 21st Century

Polar mesospheric clouds (PMC), or noctilucent clouds, can be observed over high latitudes with the naked eye from the ground or from space near the summer solstice. PMC are considered a direct and sensitive indicator of climate change and have been reported to appear more frequently in recent decades. How PMC will change in the future under the influence of natural variability and anthropogenic forcing is uncertain. In this study, we utilize model output from the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model under several shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios and input the water vapor, temperature, and pressure information into a 0-d PMC model to project the trend and variation of PMC over the 21st century, and their relationship to future changes of temperature, water vapor, and the solar cycle. The 0-d model calculations indicate that PMC ice water content (IWC) will increase and PMC will extend to lower latitudes under high SSP scenarios. Under these scenarios, more mesospheric water vapor leads to an increased IWC of PMC over the polar region, and colder mesopause temperature leads to more PMC over the mid-latitudes. There is a significant anti-correlation between the solar cycle and PMC IWC over the 21st century, but the anti-correlation is not always significant on the decadal scale. Finally, methane oxidation in the stratosphere and water vapor entering from the troposphere are both responsible for future changes in mesospheric water vapor and thus PMC.

Polar Mesospheric Clouds↗
NASA NTRS2022

Estimating the Migrating Diurnal Tide Component of Mesospheric Water Vapor

This work presents a method for estimating the migrating diurnal tide (DW1) component of mesospheric H2O from observations of the temperature tide and zonal-mean H2O made by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument. This work first shows that a 2D least-squares fit on SABER H2O yields an erroneous DW1 due to retrieval algorithm problems. Consequently, the adiabatic displacement method is used. Applying the method to SABER observations and comparing it with Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) H2O observations reveals that the method reproduces the MLS-observed H2O DW1 component best in March and June over low-latitudes in the altitude range between 65 and 75 km where errors range between +5% and +20%. Applying the method for simulations using the Specified Dynamics—Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model with Ionosphere/Thermosphere eXtension (SD-WACCM-X) indicates that in the model, it is best only in March and not in June. Model simulations further showed that in March, theoretical errors due to the vertical advection assumption and aliasing are best at less than +13% for the low-latitudes and altitudes between 65 and 75 km. These results, therefore, lead to the conclusion that despite the errors in the vertical advection assumption and aliasing, the adiabatic displacement method performs best in estimating mesospheric H2O DW1 with SABER observations during both March equinox and June solstice over the low latitudes between 65 and 75 km. Results also show that SD-WACCM-X satisfactorily simulates the H2O DW1 magnitude and mechanisms only in the March equinox period.

h20↗
NASA NTRS2019

Annual and Semiannual Oscillations of Thermospheric Composition in TIMED/GUVI Limb Measurements

The Global UltraViolet Imager (GUVI) onboard the Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) satellite provides a data set of vertical thermospheric composition (O, N2, and O2 densities) and temperature profiles from 2002–2007. Even though GUVI sampling is limited by orbital constraint, we demonstrated that the GUVI data set can be used to derive the altitude profiles of the amplitudes and phases of annual oscillation (AO) and semiannual oscillation (SAO), thereby providing important constraints on models seeking to explain these features. We performed a seasonal and interannual analysis of GUVI limb O, O2, and N2 densities and volume number density ratio O/N2 at constant pressure levels. These daytime observations of O and O/N2 in the lower thermosphere show a strong AO at midlatitudes and a clear SAO at lower latitudes. The global mean GUVI O/N2 number density ratio shows the AO, with slightly larger values in January than in July and a SAO with O/N2 greater during equinoxes than at the solstices. O and N2 densities on fixed pressure levels in the upper thermosphere are anticorrelated with solar extreme ultraviolet flux. On the other hand, O/N2 is smaller during solar minimum and larger during solar maximum. The thermospheric AO and SAO in composition have a constant phase with altitude throughout the thermosphere.

thermosphere composition↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

TPSAS-NF1676L-30539-DND

The climate of the thermosphere is controlled in part by cooling to space driven by infrared radiation, primarily from nitric oxide (NO, 5.3μm)and carbon dioxide (CO2, 15μm). The Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument on the ThermosphereIonosphere-Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) satellite measures the vertical distribution of infrared radiation emitted by these species (and others).

Linda Hunt↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

TPSAS-NF1676L-20735-DND

Higher than normal accuracy is required to rigorously observe decadal climate change. But what level is needed? How can this be quantified? This presentation will summarize a new more rigorous and quantitative approach to determining the required accuracy for climate change observations (Wielicki et al., 2013, BAMS). Most current global satellite observations cannot meet this accuracy level. A proposed new satellite mission to resolve this challenge is CLARREO (Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory). CLARREO is designed to achieve advances of a factor of 10 for reflected solar spectra and a factor of 3 to 5 for thermal infrared spectra (Wielicki et al., Oct. 2013 BAMS). The CLARREO spectrometers are designed to serve as SI traceable benchmarks for the Global Satellite Intercalibration System (GSICS) and to greatly improve the utility of a wide range of LEO and GEO infrared and reflected solar passive satellite sensors for climate change observations (e.g. CERES, MODIS, VIIIRS, CrIS, IASI, Landsat, SPOT, etc). Providing more accurate decadal change trends can in turn lead to more rapid narrowing of key climate science uncertainties such as cloud feedback and climate sensitivity. A study has been carried out to quantify the economic benefits of such an advance as part of a rigorous and complete climate observing system. The study concludes that the economic value is ~ $12 Trillion U.S. dollars in Net Present Value for a nominal discount rate of 3% (Cooke et al. 2013, J. Env. Sys. Dec.). A brief summary of these two studies and their implications for the future of climate science will be presented.

Bruce Wielicki↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Nitric Oxide Cooling and Concentrations Derived from SABER

- Motivation and Objective: - Nitric Oxide : - Is a thermostat of the thermosphere. - plays important role in regulating the energy budget in the thermosphere. - Long term precise datasets of NO cooling and NO concentration are of great important. - Objective: - Derive the NO cooling from SABER measurements by using new unfiltered factor. - Derive the NO concentration from SABER NO cooling and MSIS simulations.

SABER↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Nitric Oxide Concentrations from Solar Maximum to Solar Minimum Years Derived from SABER

Nitric oxide (NO) is of particular importance in the upper atmosphere nominally the region between 100 km and 250 km, as it plays the role in cooling and regulating the energy budget of the system. The NO cooling rates have been routinely derived for the past two decades from the measurements made by Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument on the Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics satellite (TIMED) satellite since 2002. However, a comprehensive long-term dataset of global thermospheric NO concentration as a function of local time is currently unavailable. Given that solar activity significantly influences NO abundance on timescales ranging from days to decades, analyzing the behavior of NO concentration during solar storm and solar cycle can provide valuable insights into thermospheric energy balance, improving storm-time and climatological knowledge. In this study, we used newly calculated NO cooling rates and simulations of neutral kinetic temperature and atomic oxygen number density from the MSIS 2.1 model to derive 20-year NO concentration data. The global annual mean NO concentration shows a strong correlation with the solar cycle, with high concentrations and upper boundaries up to 250 km during solar maximum years and lower concentrations and upper boundaries up to ~230 km during solar minimum years. We also compared NO concentrations obtained from SABER measurements and MSIS 2.1 simulations during solar maximum (2014) and solar minimum (2009) years and found good agreement between the two during both day and night.

Ningchao Wang↗