Update on derived meteorological products and related analyses for SOSST
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meteorology↗
Engineering topics
Manney, Gloria L.
Publications and source records attributed to Manney, Gloria L..
Diagnostic Comparison of Meteorological Analyses during the 2002 Antarctic Winter
Several meteorological datasets, including U.K. Met Office (MetO), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), and NASA's Goddard Earth Observation System (GEOS-4) analyses, are being used in studies of the 2002 Southern Hemisphere (SH) stratospheric winter and Antarctic major warming. Diagnostics are compared to assess how these studies may be affected by the meteorological data used. While the overall structure and evolution of temperatures, winds, and wave diagnostics in the different analyses provide a consistent picture of the large-scale dynamics of the SH 2002 winter, several significant differences may affect detailed studies. The NCEP-NCAR reanalysis (REAN) and NCEP-Department of Energy (DOE) reanalysis-2 (REAN-2) datasets are not recommended for detailed studies, especially those related to polar processing, because of lower-stratospheric temperature biases that result in underestimates of polar processing potential, and because their winds and wave diagnostics show increasing differences from other analyses between similar to 30 and 10 hPa (their top level). Southern Hemisphere polar stratospheric temperatures in the ECMWF 40-Yr Re-analysis (ERA-40) show unrealistic vertical structure, so this long-term reanalysis is also unsuited for quantitative studies. The NCEP/Climate Prediction Center (CPC) objective analyses give an inferior representation of the upper-stratospheric vortex. Polar vortex transport barriers are similar in all analyses, but there is large variation in the amount, patterns, and timing of mixing, even among the operational assimilated datasets (ECMWF, MetO, and GEOS-4). The higher-resolution GEOS-4 and ECMWF assimilations provide significantly better representation of filamentation and small-scale structure than the other analyses, even when fields gridded at reduced resolution are studied. The choice of which analysis to use is most critical for detailed transport studies (including polar process modeling) and studies involving synoptic evolution in the upper stratosphere. The operational assimilated datasets are better suited for most applications than the NCEP/CPC objective analyses and the reanalysis datasets.
stratosphere↗
Simulations of Dynamics and Transport during the September 2002 Antarctic Major Warming
A mechanistic model simulation initialized on 14 September 2002, forced by 100-hPa geopotential heights from Met Office analyses, reproduced the dynamical features of the 2002 Antarctic major warming. The vortex split on approx.25 September; recovery after the warming, westward and equatorward tilting vortices, and strong baroclinic zones in temperature associated with a dipole pattern of upward and downward vertical velocities were all captured in the simulation. Model results and analyses show a pattern of strong upward wave propagation throughout the warming, with zonal wind deceleration throughout the stratosphere at high latitudes before the vortex split, continuing in the middle and upper stratosphere and spreading to lower latitudes after the split. Three-dimensional Eliassen-Palm fluxes show the largest upward and poleward wave propagation in the 0(deg)-90(deg)E sector prior to the vortex split (coincident with the location of strongest cyclogenesis at the model's lower boundary), with an additional region of strong upward propagation developing near 180(deg)-270(deg)E. These characteristics are similar to those of Arctic wave-2 major warmings, except that during this warming, the vortex did not split below approx.600 K. The effects of poleward transport and mixing dominate modeled trace gas evolution through most of the mid- to high-latitude stratosphere, with a core region in the lower-stratospheric vortex where enhanced descent dominates and the vortex remains isolated. Strongly tilted vortices led to low-latitude air overlying vortex air, resulting in highly unusual trace gas profiles. Simulations driven with several meteorological datasets reproduced the major warming, but in others, stronger latitudinal gradients at high latitudes at the model boundary resulted in simulations without a complete vortex split in the midstratosphere. Numerous tests indicate very high sensitivity to the boundary fields, especially the wave-2 amplitude. Major warmings occurred for initial fields with stronger winds and larger vortices, but not smaller vortices, consistent with the initiation of wind-deceleration by upward-propagating waves near the poleward edge of the region where wave 2 can propagate above the jet core. Thus, given the observed 100-hPa boundary forcing, stratospheric preconditioning is not needed to reproduce a major warming similar to that observed. The anomalously strong forcing in the lower stratosphere can be viewed as the primary direct cause of the major warming.
winds↗
The Remarkable 2003--2004 Winter and Other Recent Warm Winters in the Arctic Stratosphere Since the Late 1990s
The 2003-2004 Arctic winter was remarkable in the approximately 50-year record of meteorological analyses. A major warming beginning in early January 2004 led to nearly 2 months of vortex disruption with high-latitude easterlies in the middle to lower stratosphere. The upper stratospheric vortex broke up in late December, but began to recover by early January, and in February and March was the strongest since regular observations began in 1979. The lower stratospheric vortex broke up in late January. Comparison with 2 previous years, 1984-1985 and 1986-1987, with prolonged midwinter warming periods shows unique characteristics of the 2003-2004 warming period: The length of the vortex disruption, the strong and rapid recovery in the upper stratosphere, and the slow progression of the warming from upper to lower stratosphere. January 2004 zonal mean winds in the middle and lower stratosphere were over 2 standard deviations below average. Examination of past variability shows that the recent frequency of major stratospheric warmings (7 in the past 6 years) is unprecedented. Lower stratospheric temperatures were unusually high during 6 of the past 7 years, with 5 having much lower than usual potential for polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) formation and ozone loss (nearly none in 1998-1999, 2001-2002, and 2003-2004, and very little in 1997-1998 and 2000-2001). Middle and upper stratospheric temperatures, however, were unusually low during and after February. The pattern of 5 of the last 7 years with very low PSC potential would be expected to occur randomly once every 850 years. This cluster of warm winters, immediately following a period of unusually cold winters, may have important implications for possible changes in interannual variability and for determination and attribution of trends in stratospheric temperatures and ozone.
ozone↗
The Remarkable 2003-2004 Winter and Other Recent Warm Winters in the Arctic Stratosphere Since the Late 1990s
The 2003-2004 Arctic winter was remarkable in the 40-year record of meteorological analyses. A major warming beginning in early January 2004 led to nearly two months of vortex disruption with high-latitude easterlies in the middle to lower stratosphere. The upper stratospheric vortex broke up in late December, but began to recover by early January, and in February and March was the strongest since regular observations began in 1979. The lower stratospheric vortex broke up in late January. Comparison with two previous years, 1984-1985 and 1986-1987, with prolonged mid-winter warming periods shows unique characteristics of the 2003-2004 warming period: The length of the vortex disruption, the strong and rapid recovery in the upper stratosphere, and the slow progression of the warming from upper to lower stratosphere. January 2004 zonal mean winds in the middle and lower stratosphere were over two standard deviations below average. Examination of past variability shows that the recent frequency of major stratospheric warmings (seven in the past six years) is unprecedented. Lower stratospheric temperatures were unusually high during six of the past seven years, with five having much lower than usual potential for PSC formation and ozone loss (nearly none in 1998-1999, 2001-2002 and 2003-2004, and very little in 1997-1998 and 2000-2001). Middle and upper stratospheric temperatures, however, were unusually low during and after February. The pattern of five of the last seven years with very low PSC potential would be expected to occur randomly once every approximately 850 years. This cluster of warm winters, immediately following a period of unusually cold winters, may have important implications for possible changes in interannual variability and for determination and attribution of trends in stratospheric temperatures and ozone.
Manney, Gloria L.↗
Lower Stratospheric Temperature Differences Between Meteorological Analyses in two cold Arctic Winters and their Impact on Polar Processing Studies
A quantitative intercomparison of six meteorological analyses is presented for the cold 1999-2000 and 1995-1996 Arctic winters. The impacts of using different analyzed temperatures in calculations of polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) formation potential, and of different winds in idealized trajectory-based temperature histories, are substantial. The area with temperatures below a PSC formation threshold commonly varies by approximately 25% among the analyses, with differences of over 50% at some times/locations. Freie University at Berlin analyses are often colder than others at T is less than or approximately 205 K. Biases between analyses vary from year to year; in January 2000. U.K. Met Office analyses were coldest and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) analyses warmest. while NCEP analyses were usually coldest in 1995-1996 and Met Office or NCEP[National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis (REAN) warmest. European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) temperatures agreed better with other analyses in 1999-2000, after improvements in the assimilation model. than in 1995-1996. Case-studies of temperature histories show substantial differences using Met Office, NCEP, REAN and NASA Data Assimilation Office (DAO) analyses. In January 2000 (when a large cold region was centered in the polar vortex), qualitatively similar results were obtained for all analyses. However, in February 2000 (a much warmer period) and in January and February 1996 (comparably cold to January 2000 but with large cold regions near the polar vortex edge), distributions of "potential PSC lifetimes" and total time spent below a PSC formation threshold varied significantly among the analyses. Largest peaks in "PSC lifetime" distributions in January 2000 were at 4-6 and 11-14 days. while in the 1996 periods, they were at 1-3 days. Thus different meteorological conditions in comparably cold winters had a large impact on expectations for PSC formation and on the discrepancies between different meteorological analyses. Met Office. NCEP, REAN, ECMWF and DAO analyses are commonly used for trajectory calculations and in chemical transport models; the choice of which analysis to use can strongly influence the results of such studies.
Manney, Gloria L.↗
Layering in halocarbons, methane, nitrous oxide, ozone, and water vapour over mid-latitudes
The purpose of the balloon flights performed in March 1993 from Aire-sur-Adour (France) was to measure trace gases in the polar vortex during a dynamically active period. These balloon flights revealed coincident layering in long-lived tropospheric source gases. A layer of mid-latitude air, enriched in trace gases, was detected at sampled levels near 15 mbar. High resolution advection models, fine scale distributions of ozone, nitrous oxide, methane, and halocarbons were constructed. The calculations showed how air enriched in trace gases is sampled near 15 mbar when a filament of such air is drawn into the outer portion of the vortex.
Orsolini, Yvan J.↗
Microwave Limb Sounder HNO(sub 3) Observations: Implications for Polar Stratospheric Cloud Compositions
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Ozone polar stratosphere atmosphere↗
Lagrangian Transport Calculations Using UARS Data: Ozone - Part 2
Trajectory calculations are used to examine ozone transport in the polar winter stratosphere during periods of the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) observations. The value of these calculations for determining mass transport was demonstrated previously using UARS observations of long-lived tracers, In the middle stratosphere, the overall ozone behavior observed by the Microwave Limb Sounder in the polar vortex is reproduced by this purely dynamical model. Calculations show the evolution of ozone in the lower stratosphere during early winter to be dominated by dynamics in December 1992 in the Arctic. Calculations for June 1992 in the Antarctic show evidence of chemical ozone destruction and indicate that approx. 50% of the chemical destruction may be masked by dynamical effects, mainly diabatic descent, which bring higher ozone into the lower-stratospheric vortex. Estimating differences between calculated and observed fields suggests that dynamical changes masked approx. 20% - 35% of chemical ozone loss during late February and early March 1993 in the Arctic. In the Antarctic late winter, in late August and early September 1992, below approx. 520 K, the evolution of vortex-averaged ozone is entirely dominated by chemical effects; above this level, however, chemical ozone depletion can be partially or completely masked by dynamical effects. Our calculations for 1992 showed that chemical loss was nearly completely compensated by increases due to diabatic descent at 655 K.
Manney, Gloria L.↗
Large-scale variations in ozone from the first two years of UARS MLS data
Two years of stratospheric measurements of ozone from the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) are examined in order to characterize large horizontal scale wave variations. The use of Fourier analysis allows the detection of variations from daily through seasonal and interannual timescales. High-latitude winter variations at 10 hPa often have very large amplitudes, but smaller midlatitude variations are more ubiquitous. Some variations have the characteristics of locally generated instabilities. Correlations of wave features with changes in the zonal-mean ozone at 10 hPa suggest the presence of significant horizontal motions during strong wintertime polar warming events. Such correlations are not evident at other levels. Spectral analysis of the large-scale variations show most waves to be slowly propagating. In contrast to some past observations, equatorial regions are shown to lack large amplitude wave events.
Elson, Lee S.↗
Interhemispheric comparison of the development of the stratospheric polar vortex during fall - A 3-dimensional perspective for 1991-1992
The development of the stratospheric polar vortex during fall and early winter in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) during 1991-1992, and the Southern Hemisphere (SH) during 1992 is examined using National Meteorological Center data. Compared to the NH, the polar vortex in the SH developed with less variability on short time scales, deepened more rapidly and continued to expand well into winter. Daily minimum temperatures in the lower stratosphere were lowest at equivalent seasonal dates in both hemispheres, but values below the condensation temperatures of polar stratospheric clouds occurred earlier, persisted much longer, and occupied a larger volume of air in the SH. These interhemispheric meteorological differences can account for some of the key features of the chlorine monoxide distributions observed by the Microwave Limb Sounder on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite.
Manney, Gloria L.↗
Simulations of stratospheric warmings in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres
Simulations of stratospheric final warmings made with two primitive-equation models of the stratosphere and mesosphere are presented. The principal difference between the models is the choice of vertical coordinate; pressure is used in one, and potential temperature in the other. The Southern Hemisphere final warming of 1987 and the Northern Hemisphere final warming of 1985 are simulated. The general characteristics of the simulations are examined by comparing simulated planetary wave events with observations. The formation of baroclinic zones in the simulations is investigated. The zones had vertical temperature gradients of up to 10 K/km.
Manney, Gloria L.↗
Dynamics of the 4-day wave - Evidence for instability in the winter upper stratosphere
Linear instability calculations are presented to support the contention that part of the excitation of the 4-d wave could be due to baroclinic instability at the winter stratopause. The theoretical structure of this instability is investigated with a linear stability analysis of the August average zonal mean state.
Randel, William J.↗
The stratospheric 4-day wave in NMC data
The observed characteristics of the 4-day eastward-moving wave 1 in the Southern Hemisphere polar winter stratosphere are surveyed using ten years of National Meteorological Center (NMC) geopotential height data. The 4-day wave is shown to be an ubiquitous feature in the Southern Hemisphere polar winter stratosphere and is usually prominent during July and August. Growth of the 4-day wave is characterized by two types of structures. Some episodes exhibit NW to SE phase tilts and a single high-latitude maximum. Others show NE to SW phase tilts during growth and a high-latitude maximum out of phase with a secondary lower-latitude maximum. Stability analyses show that all characteristics of the first type of episode are consistent with barotropic instability of the stratospheric polar night jet. Analyses of climatological fields suggest that characteristics of the second type of episode may be consistent with barotropic instability of the double-peaked mesospheric jet.
Manney, Gloria L.↗
On the dependence of travelling wave stability on basic state wave phase speed
The dependence of stability on basic state wave phase speed is examined in a nondivergent barotropic model on a sphere for planetary scale waves with phase speeds typical of waves observed in the atmosphere. Triad interactions are examined analytically and compared to numerical results from a full spectral model. A number of triads may result in growth of the perturbation components for each basic state wave; for each triad there is a basic state wave phase speed where it is resonant, identified as the point where the critical amplitude for instability to that perturbation becomes zero. Critical amplitudes for instability obtained using the full spectral model generally agree well with triad results. Since the basic state wave phase speed determines which triad will grow, spatial structure and critical amplitudes for instability for the growing disturbances depend strongly on basic state wave phase speed. The results of this idealized study suggest that phase speed may be an important factor in determining the stability of planetary scale waves in the atmosphere.
Manney, Gloria L.↗
Barotropic stability of westward-moving waves in realistic stratospheric zonal flows
A linearized barotropic model on a sphere is used to study the stability of a basic state composed of a westward-moving wave and a zonal mean jet. It is found that the inclusion of a very weak jet in the basic state dramatically alters the stability of the flow. The alteration of stability characteristics for realistic summer and winter jets is discussed.
Manney, Gloria L.↗
Wave number spectra from temperature-humidity infrared radiometer 6.7-micron water vapor data
Wave number spectra from Nimbus 7 temperature-humidity infrared radiometer 6.7-micron water vapor data are analyzed using series 4800 km long, in regions free of high clouds and frontal zones. In these regions, the brightness temperatures approximate temperatures on a water vapor isosteric (constant density) surface, rather than averages over a broad vertical layer. Power above the noise can be extracted down to wavelengths of about 60 km. Fitting the power spectrum versus horizontal wave number k to a k to the -nth power law for wavelengths from 60 to a few hundred kilometers gives slopes of n = 2.7 to 3.0, depending on the exact wave numbers that are fitted. Thunderstorms and convective cloud systems may constitute an energy source for the reverse energy cascade which produces a -5/3 spectral slope. The results suggest that when these features are not present, the enstrophy-cascading process that gives a -3 slope may govern the motion at scales smaller than it has heretofore been observed.
Manney, Gloria L.↗
Barotropic instability of basic states with a realistic jet and a wave
The stability of basic states consisting of a jet similar to the stratospheric polar night jet and a traveling wave with a single zonal wavenumber is examined in a linearized nondivergent barotropic model on a sphere. Basic state waves are chosen to resemble observed traveling and stationary features in the winter stratosphere. Results are presented for disturbance growth rates, propagation characteristics, and energy conversion as a function of the basic state wave amplitude. The effects of small amplitude basic state waves on unstable disturbances arising from a zonally symmetric jet are discussed; results are shown where a small amplitude basic state wave dramatically affects the stability characteristics. Evidence is shown that the presence of a traveling wave may favor the appearance of disturbances that include other zonal wavenumbers which move with the basic state wave; this result is discussed in relation to the origin of observed quasi-nondispersive features in the polar winter stratosphere. Results for a stationary wavenumber 1 basic state wave suggest that a distorted polar vortex may be unstable to disturbances that would lead to further distortion. An unstable disturbance for a basic state with an eastward moving wavenumber 2 has components which resemble, in period and location, traveling waves that are observed in the winter stratosphere.
Manney, Gloria L.↗