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Manley, Dawn Kataoka

Publications and source records attributed to Manley, Dawn Kataoka.

At least 19 records

The heavy-duty vehicle future in the United States: A parametric analysis of technology and policy tradeoffs

Here, we present a parametric analysis of factors that can influence advanced fuel and technology deployments in U.S. Class 7–8 trucks through 2050. The analysis focuses on the competition between traditional diesel trucks, natural gas vehicles (NGVs), and ultra-efficient powertrains. Underlying the study is a vehicle choice and stock model of the U.S. heavy-duty vehicle market. Moreover, the model is segmented by vehicle class, body type, powertrain, fleet size, and operational type. We find that conventional diesel trucks will dominate the market through 2050, but NGVs could have significant market penetration depending on key technological and economic uncertainties. Compressed natural gas trucks conducting urban trips in fleets that can support private infrastructure are economically viable now and will continue to gain market share. Ultra-efficient diesel trucks, exemplified by the U.S. Department of Energy's SuperTruck program, are the preferred alternative in the long haul segment, but could compete with liquefied natural gas (LNG) trucks if the fuel price differential between LNG and diesel increases. However, the greatest impact in reducing petroleum consumption and pollutant emissions is had by investing in efficiency technologies that benefit all powertrains, especially the conventional diesels that comprise the majority of the stock, instead of incentivizing specific alternatives.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Transitioning the Transportation Sector: Exploring the Intersection of Hydrogen Fuel Cell and Natural Gas Vehicles

On September 9, 2014, Sandia National Laboratories, American Gas Association, and Toyota, in support of the U.S. Department of Energy's Fuel Cell Technologies and Vehicle Technologies Offices, convened stakeholders across the hydrogen and natural gas communities to consider opportunities and challenges at the intersection of their development as alternative transportation fuels. Although natural gas and hydrogen have an obvious intersection — natural gas is the feedstock for 95% of the hydrogen produced in the U.S. — little attention has been given to how these fuels can evolve in the context of each other. This workshop explored infrastructure requirements, regional trends, and market opportunities at the intersection of hydrogen fuel cell and natural gas use for on road transportation. The goal of the workshop was to provide background and context for thinking through the dynamic evolution of these two transportation options in tandem, and to identify opportunities that can support the synergistic development of both fuels.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Heavy Duty Vehicle Futures Analysis.

This report describes work performed for an Early Career Research and Development project. This project developed a heavy-duty vehicle (HDV) sector model to assess the factors influencing alternative fuel and efficiency technology adoption. This model builds on a Sandia light duty vehicle sector model and provides a platform for assessing potential impacts of technological advancements developed at the Combustion Research Facility. Alternative fuel and technology adoption modeling is typically developed around a small set of scenarios. This HDV sector model segments the HDV sector and parameterizes input values, such as fuel prices, efficiencies, and vehicle costs. This parameterization enables sensitivity and trade space analyses to identify the inputs that are most associated with outputs of interest, such as diesel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Thus this analysis tool enables identification of the most significant HDV sector drivers that can be used to support energy security and climate change goals.

Askin, Amanda Christine↗

System Dynamics of the Competition of Municipal Solid Waste to Landfill, Electricity, and Liquid Fuel in California

A quantitative system dynamics model was created to evaluate the economic and environmental tradeoffs between biomass to electricity and to liquid fuel using MSW biomass in the state of California as a case study. From an environmental perspective, landfilling represents the worst use of MSW over time, generating more greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions compared to converting MSW to liquid fuel or to electricity. MSW to ethanol results in the greatest displacement of GHG emissions per dollar spent compared to MSW to electricity. MSW to ethanol could save the state of California approximately $60 billion in energy costs by 2050 compared to landfilling, while also reducing GHG emissions state-wide by approximately 140 million metric tons during that timeframe. MSW conversion to electricity creates a significant cost within the state's electricity sector, although some conversion technologies are cost competitive with existing renewable generation.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗