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Mandel, Kaisey S.

Publications and source records attributed to Mandel, Kaisey S..

Algorithms and Statistical Models for Scientific Discovery in the Petabyte Era

The field of astronomy has arrived at a turning point in terms of size and complexity of both datasets and scientific collaboration. Commensurately, algorithms and statistical models have begun to adapt --- e.g., via the onset of artificial intelligence --- which itself presents new challenges and opportunities for growth. This white paper aims to offer guidance and ideas for how we can evolve our technical and collaborative frameworks to promote efficient algorithmic development and take advantage of opportunities for scientific discovery in the petabyte era. We discuss challenges for discovery in large and complex data sets; challenges and requirements for the next stage of development of statistical methodologies and algorithmic tool sets; how we might change our paradigms of collaboration and education; and the ethical implications of scientists' contributions to widely applicable algorithms and computational modeling. We start with six distinct recommendations that are supported by the commentary following them. This white paper is related to a larger corpus of effort that has taken place within and around the Petabytes to Science Workshops (https://petabytestoscience.github.io/).

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Disentangling Time-series Spectra with Gaussian Processes: Applications to Radial Velocity Analysis

Measurements of radial velocity variations from the spectroscopic monitoring of stars and their companions are essential for a broad swath of astrophysics; these measurements provide access to the fundamental physical properties that dictate all phases of stellar evolution and facilitate the quantitative study of planetary systems. The conversion of those measurements into both constraints on the orbital architecture and individual component spectra can be a serious challenge, however, especially for extreme flux ratio systems and observations with relatively low sensitivity. Gaussian processes define sampling distributions of flexible, continuous functions that are well-motivated for modeling stellar spectra, enabling proficient searches for companion lines in time-series spectra. We introduce a new technique for spectral disentangling, where the posterior distributions of the orbital parameters and intrinsic, rest-frame stellar spectra are explored simultaneously without needing to invoke cross-correlation templates. To demonstrate its potential, this technique is deployed on red-optical time-series spectra of the mid-M-dwarf binary LP661-13. We report orbital parameters with improved precision compared to traditional radial velocity analysis and successfully reconstruct the primary and secondary spectra. We discuss potential applications for other stellar and exoplanet radial velocity techniques and extensions to time-variable spectra. The code used in this analysis is freely available as an open-source Python package.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

CONSTRUCTING A FLEXIBLE LIKELIHOOD FUNCTION FOR SPECTROSCOPIC INFERENCE

We present a modular, extensible likelihood framework for spectroscopic inference based on synthetic model spectra. The subtraction of an imperfect model from a continuously sampled spectrum introduces covariance between adjacent datapoints (pixels) into the residual spectrum. For the high signal-to-noise data with large spectral range that is commonly employed in stellar astrophysics, that covariant structure can lead to dramatically underestimated parameter uncertainties (and, in some cases, biases). We construct a likelihood function that accounts for the structure of the covariance matrix, utilizing the machinery of Gaussian process kernels. This framework specifically addresses the common problem of mismatches in model spectral line strengths (with respect to data) due to intrinsic model imperfections (e.g., in the atomic/molecular databases or opacity prescriptions) by developing a novel local covariance kernel formalism that identifies and self-consistently downweights pathological spectral line “outliers.” By fitting many spectra in a hierarchical manner, these local kernels provide a mechanism to learn about and build data-driven corrections to synthetic spectral libraries. An open-source software implementation of this approach is available at http://iancze.github.io/Starfish, including a sophisticated probabilistic scheme for spectral interpolation when using model libraries that are sparsely sampled in the stellar parameters. We demonstrate some salient features of the framework by fitting the high-resolution V-band spectrum of WASP-14, an F5 dwarf with a transiting exoplanet, and the moderate-resolution K-band spectrum of Gliese 51, an M5 field dwarf.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

CfAIR2: Near-infrared light curves of 94 TYPE Ia supernovae

CfAIR2 is a large, homogeneously reduced set of near-infrared (NIR) light curves (LCs) for Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) obtained with the 1.3 m Peters Automated InfraRed Imaging TELescope. This data set includes 4637 measurements of 94 SNe Ia and 4 additional SNe Iax observed from 2005 to 2011 at the Fred Lawrence Whipple Observatory on Mount Hopkins, Arizona. CfAIR2 includes JHK{sub s} photometric measurements for 88 normal and 6 spectroscopically peculiar SN Ia in the nearby universe, with a median redshift of z ∼ 0.021 for the normal SN Ia. CfAIR2 data span the range from −13 days to +127 days from B-band maximum. More than half of the LCs begin before the time of maximum, and the coverage typically contains ∼13–18 epochs of observation, depending on the filter. We present extensive tests that verify the fidelity of the CfAIR2 data pipeline, including comparison to the excellent data of the Carnegie Supernova Project. CfAIR2 contributes to a firm local anchor for SN cosmology studies in the NIR. Because SN Ia are more nearly standard candles in the NIR and are less vulnerable to the vexing problems of extinction by dust, CfAIR2 will help the SN cosmology community develop more precise and accurate extragalactic distance probes to improve our knowledge of cosmological parameters, including dark energy and its potential time variation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

TYPE Ia SUPERNOVA COLORS AND EJECTA VELOCITIES: HIERARCHICAL BAYESIAN REGRESSION WITH NON-GAUSSIAN DISTRIBUTIONS

We investigate the statistical dependence of the peak intrinsic colors of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) on their expansion velocities at maximum light, measured from the Si II λ6355 spectral feature. We construct a new hierarchical Bayesian regression model, accounting for the random effects of intrinsic scatter, measurement error, and reddening by host galaxy dust, and implement a Gibbs sampler and deviance information criteria to estimate the correlation. The method is applied to the apparent colors from BVRI light curves and Si II velocity data for 79 nearby SNe Ia. The apparent color distributions of high-velocity (HV) and normal velocity (NV) supernovae exhibit significant discrepancies for B – V and B – R, but not other colors. Hence, they are likely due to intrinsic color differences originating in the B band, rather than dust reddening. The mean intrinsic B – V and B – R color differences between HV and NV groups are 0.06 ± 0.02 and 0.09 ± 0.02 mag, respectively. A linear model finds significant slopes of –0.021 ± 0.006 and –0.030 ± 0.009 mag (10{sup 3} km s{sup –1}){sup –1} for intrinsic B – V and B – R colors versus velocity, respectively. Because the ejecta velocity distribution is skewed toward high velocities, these effects imply non-Gaussian intrinsic color distributions with skewness up to +0.3. Accounting for the intrinsic-color-velocity correlation results in corrections to A{sub V} extinction estimates as large as –0.12 mag for HV SNe Ia and +0.06 mag for NV events. Velocity measurements from SN Ia spectra have the potential to diminish systematic errors from the confounding of intrinsic colors and dust reddening affecting supernova distances.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗