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Macneice, P.

Publications and source records attributed to Macneice, P..

NASA GSFC CCMC Recent Model Validation Activities

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) holds the largest assembly of state-of-the-art physics-based space weather models developed by the international space physics community. In addition to providing the community easy access to these modern space research models to support science research, its another primary goal is to test and validate models for transition from research to operations. In this presentation, we provide an overview of the space science models available at CCMC. Then we will focus on the community-wide model validation efforts led by CCMC in all domains of the Sun-Earth system and the internal validation efforts at CCMC to support space weather servicesjoperations provided its sibling organization - NASA GSFC Space Weather Center (http://swc.gsfc.nasa.gov). We will also discuss our efforts in operational model validation in collaboration with NOAA/SWPC.

Rastaetter, L.↗

Community Coordinated Modeling Center: Addressing Needs of Operational Space Weather Forecasting

Models are key elements of space weather forecasting. The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC, http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov) hosts a broad range of state-of-the-art space weather models and enables access to complex models through an unmatched automated web-based runs-on-request system. Model output comparisons with observational data carried out by a large number of CCMC users open an unprecedented mechanism for extensive model testing and broad community feedback on model performance. The CCMC also evaluates model's prediction ability as an unbiased broker and supports operational model selections. The CCMC is organizing and leading a series of community-wide projects aiming to evaluate the current state of space weather modeling, to address challenges of model-data comparisons, and to define metrics for various user s needs and requirements. Many of CCMC models are continuously running in real-time. Over the years the CCMC acquired the unique experience in developing and maintaining real-time systems. CCMC staff expertise and trusted relations with model owners enable to keep up to date with rapid advances in model development. The information gleaned from the real-time calculations is tailored to specific mission needs. Model forecasts combined with data streams from NASA and other missions are integrated into an innovative configurable data analysis and dissemination system (http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov) that is accessible world-wide. The talk will review the latest progress and discuss opportunities for addressing operational space weather needs in innovative and collaborative ways.

Kuznetsova, M.↗

Updates on CCMC Activities and GSFC Space Weather Services

In this presentation, we provide updates on CCMC modeling activities, CCMC metrics and validation studies, and other CCMC efforts. In addition, an overview of GSFC Space Weather Services (a sibling organization to the Community Coordinated Modeling Center) and its products/capabilities will be given. We show how some of the research grade models, if running in an operational mode, can help address NASA's space weather needs by providing forecasting/now casting capabilities of significant space weather events throughout the solar system.

Zhengm Y.↗

Community Coordinated Modeling Center Support of Operations: Real-Time Simulations and V & V.

In support of Operations Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) performing validation and verification of space weather models. To identify suitable metrics the CCMC focus on parameters most useful to operations that CCMC resident models can provide. The real time simulations carried out at CCMC are an essential tool to test model performance and stability by using input conditions that may occur in nature at any time. Since 2001, the magnetospheric MHD model BATSRUS has been run in real time using ACE real time data. CCMC staff developed an experimental real-time system that controls uploading of the real-time ACE data, monitors continuous model execution, initiates automatic recovery procedure in case of data gaps or hardware failures, synchronizes BATSRUS and FRC runs, and periodically runs IDL based visualization software.

Kuznetsova, M.↗

On non-local transport processes in the solar atmosphere

We review two mechanisms which can lend a non-local character to energy transport in the solar atmosphere, heat flux propagating in the form of collisionless electrons, and non-equilibrium ionization of hydrogen driven by ambipolar diffusion. Application of these processes to modelling of the lower transition region and upper chromosphere is considered.

Macneice, P.↗

Non-Maxwellian electron distributions in models of the solar atmosphere

In this paper, the solar models of Fontenla et al. (1990) are extended to coronal temperatures using optically thin radiative losses and a semicircular loop geometry. The effects of a non-Maxwellian high-energy tail of the electron distribution function is tested by performing a Fokker-Planck calculation of the tail. The results show that the downward conductive heat flux is very clsoe to that given by Braginskii (1965) for small departures from a Maxwellian distribution. The effects of the high-energy tail of the electron distribution on element ionization are computed and found to be negligible for all ionization states of O, Ne, and Si. It is concluded that, for quiet sun loop models in stationary energy balance, the ionization state of all elements is not significantly affected by the non-Maxwellian tail of the electron velocity distribution, and that the heat flux can be computed by considering only small first-order departures from the Maxwellian distribution.

Macneice, P.↗

Electron impact polarization expected in solar EUV lines from flaring chromospheres/transition regions

We have evaluated lower bounds on the degree of impact Extreme Ultraviolet/Ultraviolet (EUV/UV) line polarization expected during solar flares. This polarization arises from collisional excitation by energetic electrons with non-Maxwellian velocity distributions. Linear polarization was observed in the S I 1437 A line by the Ultraviolet Spectrometer and Polarimeter/Solar Maximum Mission (UVSP/SMM) during a flare on 15 July 1980. An early interpretation suggested that impact excitation by electrons propagating through the steep temperature gradient of the flaring transition region/high chromosphere produced this polarization. Our calculations show that the observed polarization in this UV line cannot be due to this effect. We find instead that, in some flare models, the energetic electrons can produce an impact polarization of a few percent in EUV neutral helium lines (i.e., lambda lambda 522, 537, and 584 A).

Fineschi, S.↗

Heat flux in a non-Maxwellian plasma

A hybrid numerical scheme is applied to solve the Landau equation for the electron distribution function over all velocity space. Evidence is presented for the first time of the degree and character of the failure of the classical Spitzer-Haerm heat flux approximation in a realistic solar coronal loop structure. In the loop model used, the failure is so severe at some points that the role of the heat flux in the plasma's energy balance is completely misinterpreted. In the lower corona the Spitzer-Haerm approximation predicts that the heat flux should act as an energy source, whereas the more accurate distribution functions calculated here show this to be an energy sink.

Ljepojevic, N. N.↗

Non-Maxwellian distribution functions in flaring coronal loops - Comparison of Landau-Fokker-Planck and BGK solutions

The high-velocity tail of the electron distribution has been calculated by solving the high-velocity form of the Landau equation for a thermal structure representative of a flaring coronal loop. These calculations show an enhancement of the tail population above Maxwellian for electrons moving down the temperature gradient. The results obtained are used to test the reliability of the BGK approximation. The comparison shows that the BGK technique can estimate contributions to the heat flux from the high-energy tail to within an order of magnitude.

Ljepojevic, N. N.↗

Intercomparison of numerical models of flaring coronal loops

The proposed Benchmark Problem consists of an infinitesimal magnetic flux tube containing a low-beta plasma. The field strength is assumed to be so large that the plasma can move only along the flux tube, whose shape remains invariant with time (i.e., the fluid motion is essentially one-dimensional). The flux tube cross section is taken to be constant over its entire length. In planar view the flux tube has a semi-circular shape, symmetric about its midpoint s = s sub max and intersecting the chromosphere-corona interface (CCI) perpendicularly at each foot point. The arc length from the loop apex to the CCI is 10,000 km. The flux tube extends an additional 2000 km below the CCI to include the chromosphere, which initially has a uniform temperature of 8000 K. The temperature at the top of the loop was fixed initially at 2 X 1 million K. The plasma is assumed to be a perfect gas (gamma = 5/3), consisting of pure hydrogen which is considered to be fully ionized at all temperatures. For simplicity, moreover, the electron and ion temperatures are taken to be everywhere equal at all times (corresponding to an artificially enhanced electron-ion collisional coupling). While there was more-or-less unanimous agreement as to certain global properties of the system behavior (peak temperature reached, thermal-wave time scales, etc.), no two groups could claim satisfactory accord when a more detailed comparison of solutions was attempted.

Kopp, R. A.↗

Multiwavelength analysis of a well observed flare from SMM

Observations of an M 1.4 flare which began at 17:00 UT on November 12, 1980, are presented and analyzed. Ground based H-alpha and magnetogram data have been combined with EUV, soft and hard X-ray observations made with instruments on-board the Solar Maximum Mission satellite. The preflare phase was marked by a gradual brightening of the flare site in O v and the disappearance of an H-alpha filament. Filament ejecta were seen in O v moving southward at a speed of about 60 km/s, before the impulsive phase. The flare loop footpoints brightened in H-alpha and the Ca XIX resonance line broadened dramatically 2 min before the impulsive phase. Nonthermal hard X-ray emission was detected from the loop footpoints during the impulsive phase, while during the same period blue-shifts corresponding to upflows of 200-250 km/s were seen in Ca XIX. Evidence was found for energy deposition in both the chromosphere and corona at a number of stages during the flare. Two widely studied mechanisms for the production of the high temperature soft X-ray flare plasma in the corona are considered, i.e. chromospheric evaporation, and a model in which the heating and transfer of material occurs between flux tubes during reconnection.

Macneice, P.↗