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Link, R.

Publications and source records attributed to Link, R..

Emulating climate extreme indices

We use simple pattern scaling and time-shift to emulate changes in a set of climate extreme indices under future scenarios, and evaluate the emulators' accuracy. We propose a metric for the error in emulation in the context of initial condition ensembles, to specifically characterize the role of internal variability in the emulation performance. Our metric separates systematic emulation errors from unavoidable discrepancies between emulated and target values due to internal variability. We compute the metricis at grid-point scale, and we show geographically resolved results, or aggregate them at global scale. We demonstrate the use of our error metric in the emulation of a suite of temperature and precipitation extreme indices. We test and compare simple pattern scaling and time-shift using a range of trajectories spanning targets inspired by the Paris agreement -- warming to 1.5C and 2.0C from the pre-industrial baseline -- and two of the longer-established trajectories, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. With this suite of scenarios we can test the effects on the performance of the size of the temperature gap between emulation origin and target. We find that for most indices emulation the dominant source of discrepancy is internal variability. For at least one index, however, counting exceedances of a high temperature threshold, significant portions of the globally aggregated discrepancy and its regional pattern originate from the systematic emulation error. This error exceeds internal variability of both the target and the emulated quantities in large coherent regions at low latitudes, and the explanation can be found in the differential behavior of temperature distributions across latitudes. The metric also highlights a fundamental difference in the two methods related to the simulation of internal variability, which is dampened significantly by simple pattern scaling. This aspect is of consequence when using these methods for specific applications, where preserving variability for uncertainty quantification is deemed important. With this study we offer our metric as a diagnostic tool, facilitating the formulation of scientific hypotheses on the reasons for the error. In the meantime, we show that for many impact relevant indices by now traditional emulation techniques can be accurate within the variations unavoidably introduced by internal variability, establishing the fundamental condition for using their emulation in impact modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Laboratory Experimentation Model of the 270 Degree Electron Tophat Analyzer

One of the most important space plasma measurements is that of a well-resolved low-energy (approx.1 eV to 1 keV) electron spectrum. This range includes the regime where photoelectron and Auger processes are important [Winningham et at., 1989] as well as the very low-energy range (down to 1 eV) where electron distributions of temperature 11,000 K are measurable. Knowledge of the structure (approx. eV scale) of the photoelectron spectrum can provide information on the composition of a planetary or cometary atmosphere. As evidence, scientists developing the Analyzer of Space Plasma and Energetic Atoms (ASPERA-3) Electron Spectrometer (ELS) flying on the European Space Agency (ESA) Mars Express Mission have adapted their electron instrument to increase energy resolution in the photoelectron energy region as a means of remotely sensing the Martian atmosphere; the idea being that the Martian magnetic field is so weak that electron interaction between the source and point of detection is nonexistent; the measured electrons are therefore reflective of the processes occurring in the Martian atmosphere.

Frahm, R. A.↗

Laboratory Experimentation Model of the 270 Degree Electron Tophat Analyzer

One of the most important space plasma measurements is that of a well-resolved low-energy (approximately 1 eV to 1 keV) electron spectrum. This range includes the regime where photoelectron and Auger processes are important as well as the very low energy range (down to 1 eV) where electron distributions of temperature 11,000 K are measurable. Knowledge of the structure (approx. eV scale) of the photoelectron spectrum can provide information on the composition of a planetary or cometary atmosphere. As evidence, scientists developing the Analyzer of Space Plasma and Energetic Atoms (ASPERA-3) Electron Spectrometer (ELS) flying on the European Space Agency (ESA) Mars Express Mission have adapted their electron instrument to increase energy resolution in the photoelectron energy region as a means of remotely sensing the Martian atmosphere; the idea being that the Martian magnetic field is so weak that electron interaction between the source and point of detection is nonexistent; the measured electrons are therefore reflective of the processes occurring in the Martian atmosphere.

Frahm, R. A.↗

The O(+) 834-A dayglow: Revised cross sections

This study assesses the impact of new O((sup 3)P) photoionization and N2 photoabsorption cross sections, and O(+) oscillator strengths and transition probabilities, on O II 834-A airglow calculations. The 834-A intensities computed using the new emission parameters are in good agreement with rocket measurements obtained in 1978 and 1980. The present study does not support a suggested reduction in the N2 photoabsorption cross section based on an earlier analysis of the rocket data. This study also explores the problem of determining F region electron densities from satellite limb scans of the O(+) 834-A emission. Our results indicate that electron density profiles inferred from limb scans are not necessarily unique; estimates of N(sub m)F(sub 2) and h(sub m)F(sub 2) can vary by at least a factor of 2 and 50 km, respectively.

Link, R.↗

Analysis of EUV/FUV dayglow and auroral measurements

This report documents investigations carried out over the twelve month period which commenced in November 1992. The contract identifies the following three tasks: analysis of the O II 83.4 nm dayglow and comparison with incoherent scatter radar data, analysis of the EUV spectrum of an electron aurora, and analysis of the EUV spectrum of a proton-hydrogen-electron aurora. The analysis approach, data reduction methods, and results, including plots of O I 98.9 nm versus time and average spectra, are presented for the last two tasks. The appendices contain preprints of two papers written under the first task. The first paper examines the effect of new O(3P) photoionization cross sections, N2 photoabsorption cross sections, and O(+) oscillator strengths and transition probabilities on the O II 83.4 nm dayglow. The second addresses the problem of remotely sensing the dayside F2 region using limb O II 83.4 nm data.

Majeed, T.↗

Feautrier solution of the electron transport equation

An efficient, accurate, and stable solution to the electron transport problem is presented. The two-stream approximation is discussed in detail, but the solution is developed for the general multistream case. Applied to the photoelectron problem, it is shown that accurate escape fluxes are obtained using only 10 altitudes distributed over the region 100 - 1000 km. The local equilibrium, two-stream, and multistream solutions to the photoelectron problem are compared. In addition, a recursion relation for the moments of the elastic angular scattering phase function is presented.

Link, R.↗

Remote sensing of the thermosphere, plasmasphere, and exosphere

An instrument package for remotely measuring thermospheric, exospheric, and plasmaspheric structure and composition is described. This instrument will be flown aboard the second test flight of the Black Brant XII rocket, with an expected apogee of about 1300 km. The experiment package consists of a spectrophotometer to measure He I 584 A, O II 834 A, O I 989 A, hydrogen Lyman beta (1025 A), hydrogen Lyman alpha (1216 A), and O I 1304 A transitions, and a photometer to measure the He II 304 A emission. The He II 304 A photometer consists of a layered synthetic microstructure mirror tuned at 304 A to focus incidence radiation onto a detector. The high altitude to be attained by the rocket is ideally suited to probe the coupling of the various atmospheric regions through the simultaneous measurement of the altitude distributions of several major thermospheric, ionospheric, and exospheric constituents.

Chakrabarti, S.↗

An EUV spectrometer for atmospheric remote sensing

This paper describes the Berkeley EUV Airglow Rocket Spectrometer (BEARS) experiment, designed to investigate the interactions between the solar ionizing radiation and the earth's upper atmosphere. The primary objective of this experiment is the verification the feasibility of using EUV observations as a quantitative diagnostic of the terrestrial atmosphere and its plasma environment. The expected information provided by spectroscopic measurements of EUV emission will include data on the excitation mechanisms, excitation rates, and branching ratios. The BEARS experimental package consists of a high-resolution EUV airglow spectrometer, a hydrogen Lyman-alpha photometer to measure both the solar radiations and the geocoronal emissions, and a moderate-resolution solar EUV spectrometer. In a test experiment, the instruments were carried aboard a four-stage sounding rocket to a peak altitude of about 960 km and obtained airglow spectra in the 980-1060 A range and in the 1300-1360 range.

Chakrabarti, S.↗

A reanalysis of rocket measurements of the ultraviolet dayglow

Rocket measurements of O I 989, 1304, 1356 A and N2 Lyman-Birge-Hopfield band emission in the midlatitude dayglow reported by Gentieu et al. (1979) and Eastes et al. (1985) are reexamined. MSIS-83 atomic oxygen densities, the 1304 and 1356 A excitation cross sections of Zipf and Erdman (1985), and SMM solar 1304 A irradiance measurements are consistent with the observed O I and N2 emission intensities. Atmosphere Explorer E (AE-E) measurements of the solar EUV irradiance near solar maximum are consistent with the 1980 rocket airglow data, but the solar EUV irradiance required to explain the 1978 airglow data is a factor of 1.5 larger than indicated by AE-E. Enhancement of the 1304 A excitation cross section due to radiative entrapment of cascade-feeding photons is much less than the factor of two predicted by the cascade model of Julienne and Davis (1976).

Link, R.↗

Remote sensing of atmospheric oxygen from a sounding rocket

This paper describes a rocket experiment to investigate mechanisms governing the interactions between two of the fundamental components of the solar-terrestrial system: the solar ionizing radiation and the earth's upper atmosphere. The aim is to characterize the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) emissions resulting from these interactions in terms of physical parameters so that EUV remote sensing can be gainfully employed as a quantitative diagnostic of the terrestrial atmosphere and plasma environment. The payload consists of a high-resolution (about 0.5 A) spectrometer to measure the EUV emissions (980-1360 A) of the earth's dayglow, a moderate resolution (about 15 A) EUV spectrometer (250-1450 A) to measure the solar irradiation responsible for the photoelectron production, and a hydrogen Lyman Alpha photometer to monitor the solar irradiance and geocoronal emissions.

Chakrabarti, S.↗

An analysis of satellite observations of the O I EUV dayglow

Observations of the latitudinal variation of the 1356-A, 1304-A, and 989-A O I earth dayglow, obtained with the USAF STP78-1 satellite at solar maximum on March 21, 1979, are reported and compared with the predictions of thermospheric models and published laboratory measurements of electron-impact excitation cross sections. The results are presented in extensive tables and graphs and characterized in detail, with particular attention to the 1304-A solar flux and the 989-A branching ratio. The STP78-1 data (as well as simultaneous AE-E satellite measurements ) are shown to indicate exospheric temperatures that were 220-240-K higher, but varied significantly less with latitude, than those predicted by the MSIS-83 model (Hedin, 1983) for the day of the observations.

Link, R.↗

Modeling of the O I 989-A to 1173-A ratio in the terrestrial dayglow

The O I 989-A and 1173-A intensities in the midlatitude dayglow are modeled for the conditions of a Jan. 17, 1985, rocket flight. It is found that the branching ratio required to fit the 1173-A data is in agreement with the laboratory measurement of 1.3-1.5 x 10 to the -4th. The results also suggest that the electron impact excitation cross section for the 3s1 3D0 state in current use may be too large by a factor of about 2-3, in agreement with recent laboratory results. If this is indeed the case, then the 1173-A triplet is by far the most important branch for the 989-A multiplet.

Gladstone, G. R.↗

Characteristics of optical emissions and particle precipitation in polar cap arcs

Auroral emission features at high geomagnetic latitudes are identified and characterized using simultaneous optical and particle data from the ISIS-2 satellite. Polar cap arcs are identified from two-dimensional geomagnetic transforms of the optical data along with precipitating electron data for the time at which the satellite is on the field line intersecting the arc. No precipitating protons were detected for any of the arc crossings. The precipitations particle characteristics include: (1) an electron energy spectrum with a peak in the range 350-750 eV superposed on a soft spectrum like that observed in polar rain; (2) a normally isotropic pitch angle dependence, with the exception that field-aligned fluxes are observed in association with an inverted 'v' event; and (3) an energy flux range of approximately 0.8-3 erg/(sq cm s). A possible explanation of the observed precipitating particle characteristics is that parallel electric fields are accelerating polar rain type spectra at an altitude of several thousand km.

Murphree, J. S.↗