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Lew, D

Publications and source records attributed to Lew, D.

13 records
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DOE OSTI2013

Short-Term Load Forecasting Error Distributions and Implications for Renewable Integration Studies: Preprint

Load forecasting in the day-ahead timescale is a critical aspect of power system operations that is used in the unit commitment process. It is also an important factor in renewable energy integration studies, where the combination of load and wind or solar forecasting techniques create the net load uncertainty that must be managed by the economic dispatch process or with suitable reserves. An understanding of that load forecasting errors that may be expected in this process can lead to better decisions about the amount of reserves necessary to compensate errors. In this work, we performed a statistical analysis of the day-ahead (and two-day-ahead) load forecasting errors observed in two independent system operators for a one-year period. Comparisons were made with the normal distribution commonly assumed in power system operation simulations used for renewable power integration studies. Further analysis identified time periods when the load is more likely to be under- or overforecast.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2012

Wind Power Forecasting Error Distributions: An International Comparison; Preprint

Wind power forecasting is expected to be an important enabler for greater penetration of wind power into electricity systems. Because no wind forecasting system is perfect, a thorough understanding of the errors that do occur can be critical to system operation functions, such as the setting of operating reserve levels. This paper provides an international comparison of the distribution of wind power forecasting errors from operational systems, based on real forecast data. The paper concludes with an assessment of similarities and differences between the errors observed in different locations.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2012

Integrating Wind and Solar Energy in the U.S. Bulk Power System: Lessons from Regional Integration Studies

Two recent studies sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) have examined the impacts of integrating high penetrations of wind and solar energy on the Eastern and Western electric grids. The Eastern Wind Integration and Transmission Study (EWITS), initiated in 2007, examined the impact on power system operations of reaching 20% to 30% wind energy penetration in the Eastern Interconnection. The Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS) examined the operational implications of adding up to 35% wind and solar energy penetration to the Western Interconnect. Both studies examined the costs of integrating variable renewable energy generation into the grid and transmission and operational changes that might be necessary to address higher penetrations of wind or solar generation. This paper identifies key insights from these regional studies for integrating high penetrations of renewables in the U.S. electric grid. The studies share a number of key findings, although in some instances the results vary due to differences in grid operations and markets, the geographic location of the renewables, and the need for transmission.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2011

Cost-Causation and Integration Cost Analysis for Variable Generation

This report examines how wind and solar integration studies have evolved, what analysis techniques work, what common mistakes are still made, what improvements are likely to be made in the near future, and why calculating integration costs is such a difficult problem and should be undertaken carefully, if at all.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2011

Value of Wind Power Forecasting

This study, building on the extensive models developed for the Western Wind and Solar Integration Study (WWSIS), uses these WECC models to evaluate the operating cost impacts of improved day-ahead wind forecasts.

17 WIND ENERGY↗