Perspectives on Risk in Space System Development
This presentation provides an overview of a range of perspectives on risk in the development and operation of space systems. It also introduces the concept of risk-based safety and mission assurance.
Engineering topics
Publications and source records attributed to Leitner, Jesse.
This presentation provides an overview of a range of perspectives on risk in the development and operation of space systems. It also introduces the concept of risk-based safety and mission assurance.
Present NASA's current and recommended concepts for Mission Extension and De-orbit reliability Methodologies. NASA's current and recommended approaches ensuring de-orbit requirements are not unnecessarily driving mission design efforts or adding incresed costs or risks to manufacturing solutions without providing benefit to missionsand will assist in moving reliability estimation from piece part performance estimates to component history and system-level testing based estimations.
At present, CubeSat components and buses are generally not appropriate for missions where significant risk of failure, or the inability to quantify risk or confidence, is acceptable. However, in the future we anticipate that CubeSats will be used for missions requiring reliability of 1-3 years for Earth-observing missions and even longer for Planetary, Heliophysics, and Astrophysics missions. Their growing potential utility is driving an interagency effort to improve and quantify CubeSat reliability, and more generally, small satellite mission risk. The Small Satellite Reliability Initiative (SSRI)—an ongoing activity with broad collaborative participation from civil, DoD, and commercial space systems providers and stakeholders—targets this challenge. The Initiative seeks to define implementable and broadly-accepted approaches to achieve reliability and acceptable risk postures associated with several SmallSat mission risk classes—from “do no harm” missions, to those associated with missions whose failure would result in loss or delay of key national objectives. These approaches will maintain, to the extent practical, cost efficiencies associated with small satellite missions and consider constraints associated with supply chain elements, as appropriate. The SSRI addresses this challenge from two architectural levels—the mission- or system-level, and the component- or subsystem-level. The mission- or system-level scope targets assessment approaches that are efficient and effective, with mitigation strategies that facilitate resiliency to mission or system anomalies while the component- or subsystem-level scope addresses the challenge at lower architectural levels. The initiative does not limit strategies and approaches to proven and traditional methodologies, but is focused on fomenting thought on novel and innovative solutions. This paper discusses the genesis of and drivers for this initiative, how the public-private collaboration is being executed, findings and recommendations derived to date, and next steps towards broadening small satellite mission potential.
This presentation conveys an approach for risk-based safety and mission assurance applied to cubesats. This presentation accompanies a NASA Goddard standard in development that provides guidance for building a mission success plan for cubesats based on the risk tolerance and resources available.
Presentation to describe risk classificaiton definitions, and gudelines, as well as an approach for performing risk-based safety and mission assurance.
Presentation to describe an approach for more effcient disposition of common spacecraft components.
Over the next two decades a revolution is likely to occur in how remote sensing of Earth, other planets or bodies, and a range of phenomena in the universe is performed from space. In particular, current launch vehicle fairing volume and mass constraints will continue to restrict the size of monolithic telescope apertures which can be launched to accommodate only slightly more performance capability than is achievable today, such as by the Hubble Space Telescope. Systems under formulation today, such as the James Webb Space Telescope, will be able to increase aperture size and, hence, imaging resolution, by deploying segmented optics. However, this approach is limited as well, by our ability to control such segments to optical tolerances over long distances with highly uncertain structural dynamics connecting them. Consequently, for orders of magnitude improved resolution as required for imaging black holes, imaging planets, or performing asteroseismology, the only viable approach will be to fly a collection of spacecraft in formation to synthesize a virtual segmented telescope or interferometer with very large baselines. This presentation highlights some of the strategic science missions planned in the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, and identifies some of the critical technologies needed to enable some of the most challenging space missions ever conceived which have realistic hopes of flying.
A number of international space agencies and organizations, to include the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the European Space Agency (ESA), and the Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales (CNES), to name a few, have embraced the concept of spacecraft formation flying to revolutionize the capabilities of astronomy and Earth remote sensing from space. The concept has been around well over a decade and a wide array of technologies and capabilities have been developed to enable multiple spacecraft to collaborate in a highly-coupled manner as would be required for a formation flying mission. Furthermore, many relevant capabilities for formation flying have been demonstrated in the area of rendezvous and docking, loosely-controlled formations, and in missions with collaborating spacecraft with very precise metrology. .However, in considering the case of precision formation flying (PFF), i.e, when the relative geometry of multiple vehicles must be controlled on-board in a continuous and precise manner, there have been several missions proposed, but the realization in space has not yet occurred due to a range of issues. This paper will briefly examine those issues and present a concept for demonstrating a core capability for performing PFF, necessary for virtually any PFF mission concept, that will help to overcome the problems encountered in prior attempts and help to allay the risks to enable future PFF science missions.
This paper presents results from a study conducted at Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) to assess the real-time orbit determination accuracy of GPS-based navigation in a number of different high Earth orbital regimes. Measurements collected from a GPS receiver (connected to a GPS radio frequency (RF) signal simulator) were processed in a navigation filter in real-time, and resulting errors in the estimated states were assessed. For the most challenging orbit simulated, a 12 hour Molniya orbit with an apogee of approximately 39,000 km, mean total position and velocity errors were approximately 7 meters and 3 mm/s respectively. The study also makes direct comparisons between the results from the above hardware in-the-loop tests and results obtained by processing GPS measurements generated from software simulations. Care was taken to use the same models and assumptions in the generation of both the real-time and software simulated measurements, in order that the real-time data could be used to help validate the assumptions and models used in the software simulations. The study makes use of the unique capabilities of the Formation Flying Test Bed at GSFC, which provides a capability to interface with different GPS receivers and to produce real-time, filtered orbit solutions even when less than four satellites are visible. The result is a powerful tool for assessing onboard navigation performance in a wide range of orbital regimes, and a test-bed for developing software and procedures for use in real spacecraft applications.
Over the next twenty years, a wave of change is occurring in the space-based scientific remote sensing community. While the fundamental limits in the spatial and angular resolution achievable in spacecraft have been reached, based on today s technology, an expansive new technology base has appeared over the past decade in the area of Distributed Space Systems (DSS). A key subset of the DSS technology area is that which covers precision formation flying of space vehicles. Through precision formation flying, the baselines, previously defined by the largest monolithic structure which could fit in the largest launch vehicle fairing, are now virtually unlimited. Several missions including the Micro-Arcsecond X-ray Imaging Mission (MAXIM), and the Stellar Imager will drive the formation flying challenges to achieve unprecedented baselines for high resolution, extended-scene, interferometry in the ultraviolet and X-ray regimes. This paper focuses on establishing the feasibility for the formation control of the MAXIM mission. MAXIM formation flying requirements are on the order of microns, while Stellar Imager mission requirements are on the order of nanometers. This paper specifically addresses: (1) high-level science requirements for these missions and how they evolve into engineering requirements; and (2) the development of linearized equations of relative motion for a formation operating in an n-body gravitational field. Linearized equations of motion provide the ground work for linear formation control designs.
Over the next twenty years, a wave of change is occurring in the spacebased scientific remote sensing community. While the fundamental limits in the spatial and angular resolution achievable in spacecraft have been reached, based on today's technology, an expansive new technology base has appeared over the past decade in the area of Distributed Space Systems (DSS). A key subset of the DSS technology area is that which covers precision formation flying of space vehicles. Through precision formation flying, the baselines, previously defined by the largest monolithic structure which could fit in the largest launch vehicle fairing, are now virtually unlimited. Several missions including the Micro-Arcsecond X-ray Imaging Mission (MAXIM), and the Stellar Imager will drive the formation flying challenges to achieve unprecedented baselines for high resolution, extended-scene, interferometry in the ultraviolet and X-ray regimes. This paper focuses on establishing the feasibility for the formation control of the MAXIM mission. The Stellar Imager mission requirements are on the same order of those for MAXIM. This paper specifically addresses: (1) high-level science requirements for these missions and how they evolve into engineering requirements; (2) the formation control architecture devised for such missions; (3) the design of the formation control laws to maintain very high precision relative positions; and (4) the levels of fuel usage required in the duration of these missions. Specific preliminary results are presented for two spacecraft within the MAXIM mission.
Over the next two decades a revolution is likely to occur in how remote sensing of Earth, other planets or bodies, and a range of phenomena in the universe is performed from space. In particular, current launch vehicle fairing volume and mass constraints will continue to restrict the size of monolithic telescope apertures which can be launched to little or no greater size than that of the Hubble Space Telescope, the largest aperture currently flying in space. Systems under formulation today, such as the James Webb Space Telescope will be able to increase aperture size and, hence, imaging resolution, by deploying segmented optics. However, this approach is limited as well, by our ability to control such segments to optical tolerances over long distances with highly uncertain structural dynamics connecting them. Consequently, for orders of magnitude improved resolution as required for imaging black holes, imaging planets, or performing asteroseismology, the only viable approach will be to fly a collection of spacecraft in formation to synthesize a virtual segmented telescope or interferometer with very large baselines. This paper provides some basic definitions in the area of formation flying, describes some of the strategic science missions planned in the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, and identifies some of the critical technologies needed to enable some of the most challenging space missions ever conceived which have realistic hopes of flying.
Over the next two decades a revolution is likely to occur in how remote sensing of Earth, other planets or bodies, and a range of phenomena in the universe is performed from space. In particular, current launch vehicle fairing volume and mass constraints will continue to restrict the size of monolithic telescope apertures which can be launched to accommodate only slightly more performance capability than is achievable today, such as by the Hubble Space Telescope. Systems under formulation today, such as the James Webb Space Telescope will be able to increase aperture size and, hence, imaging resolution, by deploying segmented optics. However, this approach is limited as well, by ow ability to control such segments to optical tolerances over long distances with highly uncertain structural dynamics connecting them. Consequently, for orders of magnitude improved resolution as required for imaging black holes, imaging planets, or performing asteroseismology, the only viable approach will be to fly a collection of spacecraft in formation to synthesize a virtual segmented telescope or interferometer with very large baselines. This presentation describes some of the strategic science missions planned in the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, and identifies some of the critical technologies needed to enable some of the most challenging space missions ever conceived which have realistic hopes of flying.
Over the next two decades international space agencies including the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the European Space Agency are proposing space missions which employ distributed spacecraft technologies to enable vast improvements in remote sensing performance as compared to fundamental performance limitations associated with fairing sizes of even the largest launch vehicles. A key initial step towards enabling such challenging missions is the development of processes and algorithms for designing the desired motion of the spacecraft formation subject to simultaneous gravitational and fuel constraints. In this paper we develop analogous methodologies for designing trajectories of relative motion near the L(sub 2) point as have been thoroughly developed for the Earth-orbiting regime. In this preliminary study, we confine ourselves to the basic assumptions of the Circular Restricted Three-Body Problem where disturbances, non-gravitational effects, and fourth and greater body affects are ignored. The focus is on determining formations that are defined primarily by the natural gravitational effects on the vehicles, such that maintenance over long-term will not require significant fuel consumption.
Over the next two decades international space agencies including the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the European Space Agency are proposing space missions which employ distributed spacecraft technologies to enable vast improvements in remote sensing performance as compared to fundamental performance limitations associated with fairing sizes of even the largest launch vehicles. These missions will require numerous advanced technologies to enable some extreme scientific goals. However, on the critical path to developing many of those technologies, understanding realistic achievable performance, and formulating such missions involving formation flying spacecraft, is the detailed understanding of the vehicle relative motion in the appropriate dynamic environment. Due to the appealing gravitational and thermal environment, the Sun-Earth L(sub 2) point is a strong candidate for placement of many of these missions. Henceforth, this paper begins to unravel the dynamics of relative motion near L(sub 2), with particular consideration given to the ultimate requirements for flying space- craft in precise formation. This work is meant to be a predecessor to detailed formation flying mission analysis efforts in the areas of formation design, formation control, and relative navigation.
A recent development in spacecraft mission design involves the increasing use of Distributed Spacecraft Systems (DSS). Several key technologies must mature sufficiently to facilitate these missions, including the use of spacecraft flying in tightly controlled formations. Such formations may be controlled using "free flying" navigation schemes, or alternatively may use tethers to constrain the formation geometry. An investigation has been initiated here to further develop this technology using two small spacecraft connected by a short tether. After insertion into orbit, the tether will be extended and various data collected on the performance of the dual-spacecraft "formation." At some later time, the tether will be cut, and the spacecraft pair will be navigated in a manner to maintain a geometry as closely as possible to that of the tethered configuration. Comparisons and evaluations of the two modes of operation can then be made so that the merits of both approaches are available to mission designers.