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Lee, Christopher

Publications and source records attributed to Lee, Christopher.

8 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of the 2022 West Nile virus forecasting challenge, USA

Abstract Background West Nile virus (WNV) is the most common cause of mosquito-borne disease in the continental USA, with an average of ~1200 severe, neuroinvasive cases reported annually from 2005 to 2021 (range 386–2873). Despite this burden, efforts to forecast WNV disease to inform public health measures to reduce disease incidence have had limited success. Here, we analyze forecasts submitted to the 2022 WNV Forecasting Challenge, a follow-up to the 2020 WNV Forecasting Challenge. Methods Forecasting teams submitted probabilistic forecasts of annual West Nile virus neuroinvasive disease (WNND) cases for each county in the continental USA for the 2022 WNV season. We assessed the skill of team-specific forecasts, baseline forecasts, and an ensemble created from team-specific forecasts. We then characterized the impact of model characteristics and county-specific contextual factors (e.g., population) on forecast skill. Results Ensemble forecasts for 2022 anticipated a season at or below median long-term WNND incidence for nearly all (> 99%) counties. More counties reported higher case numbers than anticipated by the ensemble forecast median, but national caseload (826) was well below the 10-year median (1386). Forecast skill was highest for the ensemble forecast, though the historical negative binomial baseline model and several team-submitted forecasts had similar forecast skill. Forecasts utilizing regression-based frameworks tended to have more skill than those that did not and models using climate, mosquito surveillance, demographic, or avian data had less skill than those that did not, potentially due to overfitting. County-contextual analysis showed strong relationships with the number of years that WNND had been reported and permutation entropy (historical variability). Evaluations based on weighted interval score and logarithmic scoring metrics produced similar results. Conclusions The relative success of the ensemble forecast, the best forecast for 2022, suggests potential gains in community ability to forecast WNV, an improvement from the 2020 Challenge. Similar to the previous challenge, however, our results indicate that skill was still limited with general underprediction despite a relative low incidence year. Potential opportunities for improvement include refining mechanistic approaches, integrating additional data sources, and considering different approaches for areas with and without previous cases. Graphical Abstract

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Effects of renormalon scheme and perturbative scale choices on determinations of the strong coupling from e + e − event shapes

We study the role of renormalon cancellation schemes and perturbative scale choices in extractions of the strong coupling constant α s ( m Z ) and the leading nonperturbative shift parameter Ω 1 from resummed predictions of the e + e − event shape thrust. We calculate the thrust distribution to N L 3 L ′ resummed accuracy in soft-collinear effective theory (SCET) matched to the fixed-order O ( α s 2 ) prediction, and perform a new high-statistics computation of the O ( α s 3 ) matching in , although we do not include the latter in our final α s fits due to some observed systematics that require further investigation. We are primarily interested in testing the phenomenological impact sourced from varying amongst three renormalon cancellation schemes and two sets of perturbative scale profile choices. We then perform a global fit to available data spanning center-of-mass energies between 35–207 GeV in each scenario. Relevant subsets of our results are consistent with prior SCET-based extractions of α s ( m Z ) , but we are also led to a number of novel observations. Notably, we find that the combined effect of altering the renormalon cancellation scheme and profile parameters can lead to few-percent-level impacts on the extracted values in the α s − Ω 1 plane, indicating a potentially important systematic theory uncertainty that should be accounted for. We also observe that fits performed over windows dominated by dijet events are typically of a higher quality than those that extend into the far tails of the distributions, possibly motivating future fits focused more heavily in this region. Finally, we discuss how different estimates of the three-loop soft matching coefficient c S ˜ 3 can also lead to measurable changes in the fitted { α s , Ω 1 } values. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probing light quark Yukawa couplings through angularity distributions in Higgs boson decay

We propose to utilize angularity distributions in Higgs boson decay to probe light quark Yukawa couplings at e + e - colliders. Angularities $τ$ a are a class of 2-jet event shapes with variable and tunable sensitivity to the distribution of radiation in hadronic jets in the final state. Using soft-collinear effective theory (SCET), we present a prediction of angularity distributions from Higgs decaying to quark and gluon states at e + e - colliders to NNLL + $\mathcal{O}$(α s ) accuracy. Due to the different color structures in quark and gluon jets, the angularity distributions from H → $q\overline{q}$ and H → gg show different behaviors and can be used to constrain the light quark Yukawa couplings. We show that the upper limit of light quark Yukawa couplings could be probed to the level of ~ 15% of the bottom quark Yukawa coupling in the Standard Model in a conservative analysis window far away from nonperturbative effects and other uncertainties; the limit can be pushed to ≲ 7 – 9% with better control of the nonperturbative effects especially on gluon angularity distributions and/or with multiple angularities.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

The case for an EIC Theory Alliance: Theoretical Challenges of the EIC

We outline the physics opportunities provided by the Electron Ion Collider (EIC). These include the study of the parton structure of the nucleon and nuclei, the onset of gluon saturation, the production of jets and heavy flavor, hadron spectroscopy and tests of fundamental symmetries. We review the present status and future challenges in EIC theory that have to be addressed in order to realize this ambitious and impactful physics program, including how to engage a diverse and inclusive workforce. In order to address these many-fold challenges, we propose a coordinated effort involving theory groups with differing expertise is needed. We discuss the scientific goals and scope of such an EIC Theory Alliance.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Case for an EIC Theory Alliance

This documents outlines the case for the creation of an EIC Theory Alliance. The EIC will be a unique and versatile facility that will enable the understanding of some of the most compelling questions in the physics of the strong nuclear force. To fully exploit the potential of the EIC, a focused theory effort will be required. The goal of the EIC Theory Alliance is to provide support and stewardship of the theory effort in EIC physics, broadly defined, over the lifetime of the facility. It will promote EIC theory and contribute to workforce development through: support of graduate students; EIC Theory Fellowships for postdocs; bridge positions at universities; and short and long term visitor programs to enhance collaboration between groups. In addition, the alliance will organize topical schools and workshops. The EIC Theory Alliance will be a decentralized organization, open to participation by anyone in the community who is interested in EIC physics, i.e., it will be a membership organization, where members elect an executive board which will effectively run the alliance. The executive board will determine the major scientific thrusts of the theory alliance, make decisions regarding at which universities bridge faculty positions will be created, and serve as a search committee for EIC-related positions. Furthermore, the executive board will coordinate the organization of workshops and schools related to the research activities of the alliance. In addition, the EIC theory alliance will seek out and nurture international cooperation to maximally leverage the available funding. The EIC theory alliance has a wider range of physics goals and longer lifetime, commensurate with that of the EIC research program, than individual nuclear theory topical collaborations. The structure of the EIC Theory Alliance will build on previous examples of successful alliances in nuclear theory.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗