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Krisko, Paula H.

Publications and source records attributed to Krisko, Paula H..

A Comparison of the SOCIT and DebriSat Experiments

This paper explores the differences between, and shares the lessons learned from, two hypervelocity impact experiments critical to the update of orbital debris environment models. The procedures and processes of the fourth Satellite Orbital Debris Characterization Impact Test (SOCIT) were analyzed and related to the ongoing DebriSat experiment. SOCIT was the first hypervelocity impact test designed specifically for satellites in Low Earth Orbit (LEO). It targeted a 1960's U.S. Navy satellite, from which data was obtained to update pre-existing NASA and DOD breakup models. DebriSat is a comprehensive update to these satellite breakup models- necessary since the material composition and design of satellites have evolved from the time of SOCIT. Specifically, DebriSat utilized carbon fiber, a composite not commonly used in satellites during the construction of the US Navy Transit satellite used in SOCIT. Although DebriSat is an ongoing activity, multiple points of difference are drawn between the two projects. Significantly, the hypervelocity tests were conducted with two distinct satellite models and test configurations, including projectile and chamber layout. While both hypervelocity tests utilized soft catch systems to minimize fragment damage to its post-impact shape, SOCIT only covered 65% of the projected area surrounding the satellite, whereas, DebriSat was completely surrounded cross-range and downrange by the foam panels to more completely collect fragments. Furthermore, utilizing lessons learned from SOCIT, DebriSat's post-impact processing varies in methodology (i.e., fragment collection, measurement, and characterization). For example, fragment sizes were manually determined during the SOCIT experiment, while DebriSat utilizes automated imaging systems for measuring fragments, maximizing repeatability while minimizing the potential for human error. In addition to exploring these variations in methodologies and processes, this paper also presents the challenges DebriSat has encountered thus far and how they were addressed. Accomplishing DebriSat's goal of collecting 90% of the debris, which constitutes well over 100,000 fragments, required addressing many challenges stemming from the very large number of fragments. One of these challenges arose in identifying the foam-embedded fragments. DebriSat addressed this by X-raying all of the panels once the loose debris were removed, and applying a detection algorithm developed in-house to automate the embedded fragment identification process. It is easy to see how the amount of data being compiled would be outstanding. Creating an efficient way to catalog each fragment, as well as archiving the data for reproducibility also posed a great challenge for DebriSat. Barcodes to label each fragment were introduced with the foresight that once the characterization process began, the datasheet for each fragment would have to be accessed again quickly and efficiently. The DebriSat experiment has benefited significantly by leveraging lessons learned from the SOCIT experiment along with the technological advancements that have occurred during the time between the experiments. The two experiments represent two ages of satellite technology and, together, demonstrate the continuous efforts to improve the experimental techniques for fragmentation debris characterization.

Ausay, Erick↗

An Imaging System for Automated Characteristic Length Measurement of Debrisat Fragments

The debris fragments generated by DebriSat's hypervelocity impact test are currently being processed and characterized through an effort of NASA and USAF. The debris characteristics will be used to update satellite breakup models. In particular, the physical dimensions of the debris fragments must be measured to provide characteristic lengths for use in these models. Calipers and commercial 3D scanners were considered as measurement options, but an automated imaging system was ultimately developed to measure debris fragments. By automating the entire process, the measurement results are made repeatable and the human factor associated with calipers and 3D scanning is eliminated. Unlike using calipers to measure, the imaging system obtains non-contact measurements to avoid damaging delicate fragments. Furthermore, this fully automated measurement system minimizes fragment handling, which reduces the potential for fragment damage during the characterization process. In addition, the imaging system reduces the time required to determine the characteristic length of the debris fragment. In this way, the imaging system can measure the tens of thousands of DebriSat fragments at a rate of about six minutes per fragment, compared to hours per fragment in NASA's current 3D scanning measurement approach. The imaging system utilizes a space carving algorithm to generate a 3D point cloud of the article being measured and a custom developed algorithm then extracts the characteristic length from the point cloud. This paper describes the measurement process, results, challenges, and future work of the imaging system used for automated characteristic length measurement of DebriSat fragments.

Moraguez, Mathew↗

NASA Orbital Debris Baseline Populations

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office has created high fidelity populations of the debris environment. The populations include objects of 1 cm and larger in Low Earth Orbit through Geosynchronous Transfer Orbit. They were designed for the purpose of assisting debris researchers and sensor developers in planning and testing. This environment is derived directly from the newest ORDEM model populations which include a background derived from LEGEND, as well as specific events such as the Chinese ASAT test, the Iridium 33/Cosmos 2251 accidental collision, the RORSAT sodium-potassium droplet releases, and other miscellaneous events. It is the most realistic ODPO debris population to date. In this paper we present the populations in chart form. We describe derivations of the background population and the specific populations added on. We validate our 1 cm and larger Low Earth Orbit population against SSN, Haystack, and HAX radar measurements.

Krisko, Paula H.↗

NASA's New Orbital Debris Engineering Model, ORDEM2010

This paper describes the functionality and use of ORDEM2010, which replaces ORDEM2000, as the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) debris engineering model. Like its predecessor, ORDEM2010 serves the ODPO mission of providing spacecraft designers/operators and debris observers with a publicly available model to calculate orbital debris flux by current-state-of-knowledge methods. The key advance in ORDEM2010 is the input file structure of the yearly debris populations from 1995-2035 of sizes 10 micron - 1 m. These files include debris from low-Earth orbits (LEO) through geosynchronous orbits (GEO). Stable orbital elements (i.e., those that do not randomize on a sub-year timescale) are included in the files as are debris size, debris number, material density, random error and population error. Material density is implemented from ground-test data into the NASA breakup model and assigned to debris fragments accordingly. The random and population errors are due to machine error and uncertainties in debris sizes. These high-fidelity population files call for a much higher-level model analysis than what was possible with the populations of ORDEM2000. Population analysis in the ORDEM2010 model consists of mapping matrices that convert the debris population elements to debris fluxes. One output mode results in a spacecraft encompassing 3-D igloo of debris flux, compartmentalized by debris size, velocity, pitch, and yaw with respect to spacecraft ram direction. The second output mode provides debris flux through an Earth-based telescope/radar beam from LEO through GEO. This paper compares the new ORDEM2010 with ORDEM2000 in terms of processes and results with examples of specific orbits.

Krisko, Paula H.↗

ORDEM2010 and MASTER-2009 Modeled Small Debris Population Comparison

The latest versions of the two premier orbital debris engineering models, NASA s ORDEM2010 and ESA s MASTER-2009, have been publicly released. Both models have gone through significant advancements since inception, and now represent the state-of-the-art in orbital debris knowledge of their respective agencies. The purpose of these models is to provide satellite designers/operators and debris researchers with reliable estimates of the artificial debris environment in near-Earth orbit. The small debris environment within the size range of 1 mm to 1 cm is of particular interest to both human and robotic spacecraft programs. These objects are much more numerous than larger trackable debris but are still large enough to cause significant, if not catastrophic, damage to spacecraft upon impact. They are also small enough to elude routine detection by existing observation systems (radar and telescope). Without reliable detection the modeling of these populations has always coupled theoretical origins with supporting observational data in different degrees. This paper details the 1 mm to 1 cm orbital debris populations of both ORDEM2010 and MASTER-2009; their sources (both known and presumed), current supporting data and theory, and methods of population analysis. Fluxes on spacecraft for chosen orbits are also presented and discussed within the context of each model.

Krisko, Paula H.↗

The Geosynchrous Environment for ORDEM2010

The new version of the NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM2010) requires accurate populations as input files to be used in the calculation of orbital debris fluxes on chosen spacecraft or within telescope/radar fields-of-view. Populations in ORDEM2010 are derived from an amalgam of data and modeling. Geosynchronous orbit (GEO) satellites and debris form a distinct ORDEM2010 population that is applied to the distinct analysis of GEO fluxes. Low Earth orbit (LEO) populations are derived by combining modeling results with ground-based data, primarily from radar systems, and in-situ data. In contrast, the GEO region has not been as well observed. The distance between orbiting objects and ground-based instruments precludes the wide usage of radar as a means of observation. Instead, optical instruments dominate in the study of GEO. Of these, the NASA sponsored Michigan Orbital Debris Survey Telescope (MODEST) has provided 3 years of surveys of the region detecting cataloged objects (correlated targets) and non-cataloged objects (uncorrelated targets) to an estimated minimum size of 30 cm. This paper describes the methods of combining NASA launch database and satellite breakup and orbital propagation modeling with MODEST 2004-to-2006 uncorrelated target data to attain a GEO environment to 10 cm. Assuming that MODEST uncorrelated targets are breakup debris allows for the extension of the debris survey data to smaller sizes using the NASA Standard Breakup Model. Each orbit within the total resulting GEO population is marked by a random argument of perigee and nearly constant mean motion, eccentricity, inclination, and right ascension of ascending node (RAAN) over the nearly 3 years of observation. Lack of published references of past breakups in GEO is mitigated by the orbital propagation of MODEST extended data to 1995 (the beginning epoch of ORDEM2010).

Krisko, Paula H.↗

Geosynchronous Environment for ORDEM2008

The new version of the NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM2008) requires accurate populations as input template files to be used in the calculation of orbital debris fluxes on chosen spacecraft or within telescope/radar fields-of-view. Populations in ORDEM2008 are derived from a consortium of data and modeling. Geosynchronous (GEO) satellites and debris form a distinct ORDEM2008 population that is applied to the distinct analysis of GEO fluxes. Low Earth orbit (LEO) populations are derived by combining modeling results with ground-based data, primarily from radar systems and in-situ data. In contrast, the GEO region has not been as well observed. The distance between orbiting objects and ground-based instruments precludes the wide usage of radar as a means of observation. Instead, optical instruments dominate in the study of GEO. Of these, the NASA sponsored Michigan Orbital Debris Survey Telescope (MODEST) has provided 4 years of surveys of the region detecting cataloged objects (correlated targets) and non-cataloged objects (uncorrelated targets) to an estimated minimum size of 30 cm. This paper describes the methods of combining NASA launch database and satellite breakup and orbital propagation modeling with MODEST 2004-to-2006 uncorrelated target data to attain a GEO environment to 10 cm. Assuming that MODEST uncorrelated targets are breakup debris allows for the extension of the debris survey data to smaller sizes with the NASA Standard Breakup model. Each orbit within the total resulting GEO population is marked by a random argument of perigee and nearly constant mean motion, eccentricity, inclination, and node over the nearly 3 years of observation. Lack of published references of past breakups in GEO is mitigated by the orbital propagation of MODEST extended data to 1995 (the beginning epoch of ORDEM2008).

Krisko, Paula H.↗

NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model ORDEM2008 (Beta Version)

This is an interim document intended to accompany the beta-release of the ORDEM2008 model. As such it provides the user with a guide for its use, a list of its capabilities, a brief summary of model development, and appendices included to educate the user as to typical runtimes for different orbit configurations. More detailed documentation will be delivered with the final product. ORDEM2008 supersedes NASA's previous model - ORDEM2000. The availability of new sensor and in situ data, the re-analysis of older data, and the development of new analytical techniques, has enabled the construction of this more comprehensive and sophisticated model. Integrated with the software is an upgraded graphical user interface (GUI), which uses project-oriented organization and provides the user with graphical representations of numerous output data products. These range from the conventional average debris size vs. flux magnitude for chosen analysis orbits, to the more complex color-contoured two-dimensional (2-D) directional flux diagrams in terms of local spacecraft pitch and yaw.

Stansbery, Eugene G.↗

The Predicted Growth of the Low Earth Orbit Space Debris Environment: An Assessment of Future Risk for Spacecraft

Space debris is a worldwide-recognized issue concerning the safety of commercial, military, and exploration spacecraft. The space debris environment includes both naturally occuring meteoroids and objects in Earth orbit that are generated by human activity, termed orbital debris. Space agencies around the world are addressing the dangers of debris collisions to both crewed and robotic spacecraft. In the United States, the Orbital Debris Program Office at the NASA Johnson Space Center leads the effort to categorize debris, predict its growth, and formulate mitigation policy for the environment from low Earth orbit (LEO) through geosynchronous orbit (GEO). This paper presents recent results derived from the NASA long-term debris environment model, LEGEND. It includes the revised NASA sodium potassium droplet model, newly corrected for a factor of two over-estimation of the droplet population. The study indicates a LEO environment that is already highly collisionally active among orbital debris larger than 1 cm in size. Most of the modeled collision events are non-catastrophic (i.e., They lead to a cratering of the target, but no large scale fragmentation.). But they are potentially mission-ending, and take place between impactors smaller than 10 cm and targets larger than 10 cm. Given the small size of the impactor these events would likely be undetectable by present-day measurement means. The activity continues into the future as would be expected. Impact rates of about four per year are predicted by the current study within the next 30 years, with the majority of targets being abandoned intacts (spent upper stages and spacecraft). Still, operational spacecraft do show a small collisional activity, one that increases over time as the small fragment population increases.

Krisko, Paula H.↗

Effects of Orbital Lifetime Reduction on the Long-Term Earth Satellite Population as Modeled by EVOLVE 4.0

The latest update of the NASA orbital debris environment model, EVOLVE 4.0, has been used to study the effect of various proposed debris mitigation measures, including the NASA 25-year guideline. EVOLVE 4.0, which includes updates of the NASA breakup, solar activity, and the orbit propagator models, a GEO analysis option, and non-fragmentation debris source models, allows for the statistical modeling and predicted growth of the particle population >1 mm in characteristic length in LEO and GEO orbits. The initial implementation of this &odel has been to study the sensitivity of the overall LEO debris environment to mitigation measures designed to limit the lifetime of intact objects in LEO orbits. The mitigation measures test matrix for this study included several commonly accepted testing schemes, i.e., the variance of the maximum LEO lifetime from 10 to 50 years, the date of the initial implementation of this policy, the shut off of all explosions at some specified date, and the inclusion of disposal orbits. All are timely studies in that all scenarios have been suggested by researchers and satellite operators as options for the removal of debris from LEO orbits.

Krisko, Paula H.↗

CONSTELL: NASA's Satellite Constellation Model

The CONSTELL program represents an initial effort by the orbital debris modeling group at NASA/JSC to address the particular issues and problems raised by the presence of LEO satellite constellations. It was designed to help NASA better understand the potential orbital debris consequences of having satellite constellations operating in the future in LEO. However, it could also be used by constellation planners to evaluate architecture or design alternatives that might lessen debris consequences for their constellation or lessen the debris effects on other users of space. CONSTELL is designed to perform debris environment projections rapidly so it can support parametric assessments involving either the constellations themselves or the background environment which represents non-constellation users of the space. The projections need to be calculated quickly because a number of projections are often required to adequately span the parameter space of interest. To this end CONSTELL uses the outputs of other NASA debris environment models as inputs, thus doing away with the need for time consuming upfront calculations. Specifically, CONSTELL uses EVOLVE or ORDEM96 debris spatial density results as its background environment, debris cloud snapshot templates to simulate debris cloud propagation, and time dependent orbit profiles of the intact non- functional constellation spacecraft and upper stages. In this paper the environmental consequences of the deployment of particular LEO satellite constellations using the CONSTELL model will be evaluated. Constellations that will undergo a parametric assessment will reflect realistic parameter values. Among other results the increase in loss rate of non-constellation spacecraft, the number of collisions involving constellation elements, and the replacement rate of constellation satellites as a result of debris impact will be presented.

Theall, Jeffrey R.↗