Engineering topics

Koven, Charles D.

Publications and source records attributed to Koven, Charles D..

10 records

DOE OSTI2024

Different model assumptions about plant hydraulics and photosynthetic temperature acclimation yield diverging implications for tropical forest gross primary production under warming

Tropical forest photosynthesis can decline at high temperatures due to (1) biochemical responses to increasing temperature and (2) stomatal responses to increasing vapor pressure deficit (VPD), which is associated with increasing temperature. It is challenging to disentangle the influence of these two mechanisms on photosynthesis in observations, because temperature and VPD are tightly correlated in tropical forests. Nonetheless, quantifying the relative strength of these two mechanisms is essential for understanding how tropical gross primary production (GPP) will respond to climate change, because increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentration may partially offset VPD-driven stomatal responses, but is not expected to mitigate the effects of temperature-driven biochemical responses. We used two terrestrial biosphere models to quantify how physiological process assumptions (photosynthetic temperature acclimation and plant hydraulic stress) and functional traits (e.g., maximum xylem conductivity) influence the relative strength of modeled temperature versus VPD effects on light-saturated GPP at an Amazonian forest site, a seasonally dry tropical forest site, and an experimental tropical forest mesocosm. By simulating idealized climate change scenarios, we quantified the divergence in GPP predictions under model configurations with stronger VPD effects compared with stronger direct temperature effects. Assumptions consistent with stronger direct temperature effects resulted in larger GPP declines under warming, while assumptions consistent with stronger VPD effects resulted in more resilient GPP under warming. Furthermore, our findings underscore the importance of quantifying the role of direct temperature and indirect VPD effects for projecting the resilience of tropical forests in the future, and demonstrate that the relative strength of temperature versus VPD effects in models is highly sensitive to plant functional parameters and structural assumptions about photosynthetic temperature acclimation and plant hydraulics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Large Divergence of Projected High Latitude Vegetation Composition and Productivity Due To Functional Trait Uncertainty

Abstract Vegetation distribution and composition are expected to change in northern high latitudes under rapid warming, which regulates ecosystem functions but remains challenging to predict. Vegetation change arises from the interplay of chronic climate trends such as warming and transient demographic processes of recruitment, growth, competition, and mortality. Most predictive models overlooked the role of demographic dynamics controlled by plant traits. Here, we simulate vegetation dynamics at the Kougarok Hillslope site in Alaska under historical and future climates using the E3SM Land Model coupled to the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Simulator (ELM‐FATES). To evaluate the roles of plant traits, we parameterize the model with 5,265 trait configurations representing diverse physiological and demographic strategies. Results show current modeled biomass, composition, and productivity are most sensitive to traits controlling photosynthetic capacity, carbon allocation, allometry, and phenology. Among all trait configurations, ∼5% reproduce in situ biomass and plant functional type (PFT) composition measured in 2016, that are indistinguishable from these two observed ecosystem states. Notably, these same trait configurations produce diverging biomass, composition, and productivity under future climate, where the uncertainty attributable to traits is twice the change attributable to climate change. The variation of projected productivity arises from emerging PFT composition under novel climate regimes, primarily explained by traits controlling cold‐induced mortality, recruitment, and allometry. Our findings highlight the importance and uncertainty of demographic dynamics and its interaction with climate change in shaping Arctic vegetation change. Improved model predictions will likely benefit from explicit consideration of vegetation demography and better constraints of critical traits.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Hysteresis area at the canopy level during and after a drought event in the Central Amazon

Understanding forest water limitation during droughts within a warming climate is essential for accurate predictions of forest-climate interactions. In hyperdiverse ecosystems like the Amazon forest, the mechanisms shaping hysteresis patterns in transpiration relative to environmental factors are not well understood. From this perspective, we investigated these dynamics by conducting in situ leaf-level measurements throughout and after the 2015 El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) drought. Our findings indicate a substantial increase in the hysteresis area (H area ) among transpiration (E), vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and stomatal conductance (g s ) at canopy level during the ENSO peak, attributed to both temporal lag and differences in magnitude between g s and VPD peaks. Specifically, the canopy species Pouteria anomala exhibited an increased H area , due to earlier maximum g s rates leading to a greater temporal lag with VPD compared to the post-drought period. Additionally, leaf water potential (ψ L ) and canopy temperature (T canopy ) showed larger H area during the ENSO peak compared to post-drought conditions across all studied species, suggesting that stomatal closure, particularly during the afternoon, acts to minimize water loss and may explain the counterclockwise hysteresis observed between ψ L and T canopy . Here, the pronounced H area during the drought points to a potential imbalance between water supply and demand, underlining the role of stomatal behavior of isohydric species in response to drought.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Allometric relationships and trade‐offs in 11 common M editerranean‐climate grasses

Abstract Biomass allocation in plants is the foundation for understanding dynamics in ecosystem carbon balance, species competition, and plant–environment interactions. However, existing work on plant allometry has mainly focused on trees, with fewer studies having developed allometric equations for grasses. Grasses with different life histories can vary in their carbon investment by prioritizing the growth of specific organs to survive, outcompete co‐occurring plants, and ensure population persistence. Further, because grasses are important fuels for wildfire, the lack of grass allocation data adds uncertainty to process‐based models that relate plant physiology to wildfire dynamics. To fill this gap, we conducted a greenhouse experiment with 11 common California grasses varying in photosynthetic pathway and growth form. We measured plant sizes and harvested above‐ and belowground biomass throughout the life cycle of annual species, while for the establishment stage of perennial grasses to quantify allometric relationships for leaf, stem, and root biomass, as well as plant height and canopy area. We used basal diameter as a reference measure of plant size. Overall, basal diameter is the best predictor for leaf and stem biomass, height, and canopy area. Including height as another predictor can improve model accuracy in predicting leaf and stem biomass and canopy area. Fine root biomass is a function of leaf biomass alone. Species vary in their allometric relationships, with most variation occurring for plant height, canopy area, and stem biomass. We further explored potential trade‐offs in biomass allocation across species between leaf and fine root, leaf and stem, and allocation to reproduction. Consistent with our expectation, we found that fast‐growing plants allocated a greater fraction to reproduction. Additionally, plant height and specific leaf area negatively influenced the leaf‐to‐stem ratio. However, contrary to our hypothesis, there were no differences in root‐to‐leaf ratio between perennial and annual or C 4 and C 3 plants. Our study provides species‐specific and functional‐type‐specific allometry equations for both above‐ and belowground organs of 11 common California grass species, enabling nondestructive biomass assessment in California grasslands. These allometric relationships and trade‐offs in carbon allocation across species can improve ecosystem model predictions of grassland species interactions and environmental responses through differences in morphology.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Nutrient Dynamics in a Coupled Terrestrial Biosphere and Land Model (ELM-FATES-CNP)

We present a representation of nitrogen and phosphorus cycling in the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator, a demographic vegetation model within the Energy Exascale Earth System land model. This representation is modular, and designed to allow testing of multiple hypothetical approaches for carbon-nutrient coupling in plants. Novel model hypotheses introduced in this work include, (a) the controls on plant acquisition of aqueous mineralized nutrients in the soil and (b) fairly straight forward methods of allocating nutrients to specific plant organs and their losses through live plant turnover as well as litter fluxes generated through plant mortality. This combines the new with pre-existing hypotheses (such as nitrogen fixation and soil decomposition) into a system that can accommodate plant-soil dynamics for a large number of size- and functional-type-resolved plant cohorts within a time-since-disturbance-resolved ecosystem. Root uptake of nutrients is governed by fine root biomass, and plants vary in their fine root biomass allocation in order to balance carbon and nutrient limitations to growth. We test the sensitivity of the model to a wide range of parameter variations and structural representations, and in the context of observations at Barro Colorado Island, Panama. A key model prediction is that plants in the high-light-availability canopy positions allocate more carbon to fine roots than plants in low-light understory environments, given the widely different carbon versus nutrient constraints of these two niches within a given ecosystem. This model provides a basis for exploring carbon-nutrient coupling with vegetation demography within Earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Matrix Approach to Accelerate Spin-Up of CLM5

Numerical models have been developed to investigate and understand responses of biogeochemical cycle to global changes. Steady state, when a system is in dynamic equilibrium, is generally required to initialize these model simulations. However, the spin-up process that is used to achieve steady state pose a great burden to computational resources, limiting the efficiency of global modeling analysis on biogeochemical cycles. This study introduces a new Semi-Analytical Spin-Up (SASU) to tackle this grand challenge. We applied SASU to Community Land Model version 5 and examined its computational efficiency and accuracy. At the Brazil site, SASU is computationally 7 times more efficient than (or saved up to 86% computational cost in comparison with) the traditional native dynamics (ND) spin-up to reach the same steady state. Globally, SASU is computationally 8 times more efficient than the accelerated decomposition spin-up and 50 times more efficient than ND. In summary, SASU achieves the highest computational efficiency for spin-up on site and globally in comparison with other spin-up methods. It is generalizable to wide biogeochemical models and thus makes computationally costly studies (e.g., parameter perturbation ensemble analysis and data assimilation) possible for a better understanding of biogeochemical cycle under climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

A machine learning approach targeting parameter estimation for plant functional type coexistence modeling using ELM-FATES (v2.0)

Tropical forest dynamics play a crucial role in the global carbon, water, and energy cycles. However, realistically simulating the dynamics of competition and coexistence between different plant functional types (PFTs) in tropical forests remains a significant challenge. This study aims to improve the modeling of PFT coexistence in the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), a vegetation demography model implemented in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM), ELM-FATES. Specifically, we explore (1) whether plant trait relationships established from field measurements can constrain ELM-FATES simulations and (2) whether machine learning (ML)-based surrogate models can emulate the complex ELM-FATES model and optimize parameter selections to improve PFT coexistence modeling. We conducted three ensembles of ELM-FATES experiments at a tropical forest site near Manaus, Brazil. By comparing the ensemble experiments without (Exp-CTR) and with (Exp-OBS) consideration of observed trait relationships, we found that accounting for these relationships slightly improves the simulations of water, energy, and carbon variables when compared to observations but degrades the simulation of PFT coexistence. Using ML-based surrogate models trained on Exp-CTR, we optimized the trait parameters in ELM-FATES and conducted another ensemble of experiments (Exp-ML) with these optimized parameters. The proportion of PFT coexistence experiments significantly increased from 21 % in Exp-CTR to 73 % in Exp-ML. After filtering the experiments that allow for PFT coexistence to agree with observations (within 15 % tolerance), 33 % of the Exp-ML experiments were retained, which is a significant improvement compared to the 1.4 % in Exp-CTR. Exp-ML also accurately reproduces the annual means and seasonal variations in water, energy, and carbon fluxes and the field inventory of aboveground biomass. This study represents a reproducible method that utilizes machine learning to identify parameter values that improve model fidelity against observations and PFT coexistence in vegetation demography models for diverse ecosystems. Our study also suggests the need for new mechanisms to enhance the robust simulation of coexisting plants in ELM-FATES and has significant implications for modeling the response and feedbacks of ecosystem dynamics to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

The effect of the vertical gradients of photosynthetic parameters on the CO 2 assimilation and transpiration of a Panamanian tropical forest

Terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) include the representation of vertical gradients in leaf traits associated with modeling photosynthesis, respiration, and stomatal conductance. However, model assumptions associated with these gradients have not been tested in complex tropical forest canopies. Here we compared TBM representation of the vertical gradients of key leaf traits with measurements made in a tropical forest in Panama, and then quantified the impact of the observed gradients on simulated canopy scale CO 2 and water fluxes. Comparison between observed and TBM trait gradients showed divergence that impacted canopy scale simulations of water vapor and CO 2 exchange. Notably, the ratio between the dark respiration rate and the maximum carboxylation rate was lower near the ground than at the top-of-canopy, leaf-level water-use efficiency was markedly higher at the top-of-canopy, and the decrease in maximum carboxylation rate from the top-of-canopy to the ground was less than TBM assumptions. The representation of the gradients of leaf traits in TBMs is typically derived from measurements made within-individual plants, or, for some traits, assumed constant due to a lack of experimental data. Our work shows that these assumptions are not representative of the trait gradients observed in species-rich, complex tropical forests.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2017

Global Wetland Contribution to 2000-2012 Atmospheric Methane Growth Rate Dynamics

Increasing atmospheric methane (CH4) concentrations have contributed to approximately 20% of anthropogenic climate change. Despite the importance of CH4 as a greenhouse gas, its atmospheric growth rate and dynamics over the past two decades, which include a stabilization period (1999-2006), followed by renewed growth starting in 2007, remain poorly understood. We provide an updated estimate of CH4 emissions from wetlands, the largest natural global CH4 source, for 2000-2012 using an ensemble of biogeochemical models constrained with remote sensing surface inundation and inventory-based wetland area data. Between 2000-2012, boreal wetland CH4 emissions increased by 1.2 Tg yr(sup -1) (-0.2-3.5 Tg yr(sup -1), tropical emissions decreased by 0.9 Tg yr(sup -1) (-3.2-1.1 Tg yr(sup -1), yet globally, emissions remained unchanged at 184 +/- 22 Tg yr(sup -1). Changing air temperature was responsible for increasing high-latitude emissions whereas declines in low-latitude wetland area decreased tropical emissions; both dynamics are consistent with features of predicted centennial-scale climate change impacts on wetland CH4 emissions. Despite uncertainties in wetland area mapping, our study shows that global wetland CH4 emissions have not contributed significantly to the period of renewed atmospheric CH4 growth, and is consistent with findings from studies that indicate some combination of increasing fossil fuel and agriculture-related CH4 emissions, and a decrease in the atmospheric oxidative sink.

Poulter, Benjamin↗

NASA NTRS2016

2016 International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) Workshop Report

As earth system models (ESMs) become increasingly complex, there is a growing need for comprehensive and multi-faceted evaluation of model projections. To advance understanding of terrestrial biogeochemical processes and their interactions with hydrology and climate under conditions of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide, new analysis methods are required that use observations to constrain model predictions, inform model development, and identify needed measurements and field experiments. Better representations of biogeochemistryclimate feedbacks and ecosystem processes in these models are essential for reducing the acknowledged substantial uncertainties in 21st century climate change projections.

earth system models (ESMs)↗