Engineering topics

Koberle, Alex

Publications and source records attributed to Koberle, Alex.

6 records

DOE OSTI2021

Advancing a toolkit of diverse futures approaches for global environmental assessments

Global Environmental Assessments (GEAs) support national and international policy making for sustainable development. They rely on quantitative scenarios produced by Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) to assess alternative futures. IAM-based scenarios can provide a coherent assessment framework that integrates different subsystems and their interactions. However, these top-down approaches have limited ability to represent key local dynamics, unexpected events, or the role of diverse actors. Other methods, including participatory scenarios, can help co-create narratives that emphasize diverse contents with clear links to existing decision-making. However, these bottom-up approaches provide only limited insight into global processes and are not constrained by measurable parameters. In our review, we identify four key challenges for current GEA scenarios: surprise, scale, diversity and imagination. We illustrate how these challenges can be overcome by combining top-down and bottom-up scenario approaches and conclude with a call to action for future research to take on this trans-disciplinary challenge.

Pereira, Laura M.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Energy System Transitions and Low-Emission Pathways in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, EU-28, India, Indonesia, Japan, Republic of Korea, Russia, and United States

The Paris Agreement invited Parties to submit long-term, low-emission development strategies. This study presents national low-emission scenarios to inform such strategies for Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, EU, India, Indonesia, Japan, Russia, Republic of Korea and the USA. The study uses country-level energy–economy and integrated assessment models (IAMs) that incorporate detailed and disaggregated representations of the energy demand and supply systems that are difficult to capture in global IAMs. Models were used to explore low-carbon pathways up to 2050, providing insights in their implications for country emissions, energy system restructuring, energy–economy indicators and system costs. The analysis shows that the low-carbon scenarios of most economies studied here are consistent with pathways limiting global warming to below 2 °C.

Fragkos, Panagiotis↗

DOE OSTI2020

Comparing Transformation Pathways Across Major Economies

This paper aims at providing an overview of the transformation pathways for the seven largest greenhouse-gas (GHG) emitting regions and countries in the world, in line with their contributions to limiting global average temperature increase to well below 2oC as compared to pre-industrial levels. We introduce the methodology for developing these pathways by initially discussing the iterative process by which global integrated assessment models (IAMs) initiated discussions by suggesting boundary conditions in the form of carbon budgets for different regions and countries. The carbon budgets subsequently agreed upon were then used in eleven different regional and national energy-economy models and IAMs for deriving low-carbon pathways in line with a well-below-2oC world. We present a comparative assessment of the resulting regional and national pathways, and of the challenges and opportunities associated with them.

Schaeffer, Roberto↗

DOE OSTI2019

Chapter 22 - Pathways Toward Sustainable Development

Model-based scenario analysis can help in identifying ways to achieve the environmental targets of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and related multilateral environmental agreements (MEAs) (well established). Target-seeking scenarios provide insight into the required level of effort, promising measures, and possible synergies and trade-offs between these measures and a range of targets. The usefulness of scenarios can be illustrated by the successful use of such scenarios in the literature on climate policy. Scenarios can be used to explore different pathways for achieving long-term targets and provide insights into the costs and benefits of these pathways. There are important interrelations (synergies and trade-offs) between the achievement of the various SDGs and related MEAs.. This means that strategies that aim to achieve sets of targets will have to take account for these interrelations. At the moment, scenarios that explore the fulfilment of a large set of SDG targets simultaneously are mostly lacking. An assessment of possible pathways must therefore rely on more narrowly focused scenarios in the literature. This does lead to a higher level of uncertainty and some clear knowledge gaps. {22.2}

Van Vuuren, Detlef↗

DOE OSTI2019

Chapter 21 - Future Developments Without Targeted Policies

Together with other tools, model-based scenario analysis provides a useful method to explore whether environment related targets of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and related Multilateral Environmental Agreements (MEAs) are going to be achieved (well established). Assessing whether current trends are leading to fulfilment of the selected targets outlined in Chapter 20 is complex: it requires insights into the interactions of different trends and systems, inertia and cross-scale relationships. A combination of qualitative storylines and quantitative scenario tools can help to explore possible futures trends, while taking the many complexities into account. While scenarios can never be forecasts, because surprises may occur, they can inform decision makers of the likely implications of current trends. {21.2}

Lucas, Paul↗

DOE OSTI2019

Looking under the hood: A comparison of techno-economic assumptions across national and global integrated assessment models

Integrated assessment models are extensively used in the analysis of climate change mitigation and are informing national decision makers as well as contribute to international assessments such as those of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This paper conducts a comprehensive review of techno-economic assumptions in the electricity sector among sixteen different global and national integrated assessment models. Particular focus is given to six major economies in the world: Brazil, China, the EU, India, Japan and the US. The comparison reveals that techno-economic characteristics are quite different across integrated assessment models, both for the base year and future years. It is, however, important to recognize that techno-economic assessments from the literature exhibit an equally large range of parameters as the integrated assessment models reviewed. Beyond numerical differences, the representation of technologies also differs among models which needs to be taken into account when comparing numerical parameters. While desirable from a first principles perspective and often called for, it seems difficult to fully harmonize techno-economic parameters across a broader range of models due to structural differences in the representation of technology. Therefore, in the future making techno-economic parameters available together with of the technology representation as well as the exact definitions of the parameters should become the standard approach as it allows an open discussion of appropriate assumptions.

Krey, Volker↗