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Ko, Malcolm K. W.

Publications and source records attributed to Ko, Malcolm K. W..

At least 55 records · Page 3
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NASA NTRS1991

Use of satellite data to constrain the model-calculated atmospheric lifetime for N2O - Implications for other trace gases

Model calculations of the zonal-mean concentrations of N2O in the upper stratosphere are presented showing that about 80 percent of N2O is removed in the stratosphere between 30 deg N and 30 deg S. A comparison of calculated N2O values with remote data on N2O concentrations obtained from Nimbus 7 SAMS instrument indicated that the two-dimensional model of Ko and Sze (1982) may have underestimated the concentration of N2O in the tropical lower stratosphere. It is concluded that the calculated lifetimes for N2O and chlorofluorocarbon-source gases could be 30 percent shorter than previously reported values.

Ko, Malcolm K. W.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Effects of engine emissions from high-speed civil transport aircraft: A two-dimensional modeling study, part 1

The AER two-dimensional chemistry-transport model is used to study the effect on stratospheric ozone (O3) from operations of supersonic and subsonic aircraft. The study is based on six emission scenarios provided to AER. The study showed that: (1) the O3 response is dominated by the portion of the emitted nitrogen compounds that is entrained in the stratosphere; (2) the entrainment is a sensitive function of the altitude at which the material is injected; (3) the O3 removal efficiency of the emitted material depends on the concentrations of trace gases in the background atmosphere; and (4) evaluation of the impact of fleet operations in the future atmosphere must take into account the expected changes in trace gas concentrations from other activities. Areas for model improvements in future studies are also discussed.

Ko, Malcolm K. W.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Effects of engine emissions from high-speed civil transport aircraft: A two-dimensional modeling study, part 2

The AER two-dimensional chemistry-transport model is used to study the effect of supersonic and subsonic aircraft operation in the 2010 atmosphere on stratospheric ozone (O3). The results show that: (1) the calculated O3 response is smaller in the 2010 atmosphere compared to previous calculations performed in the 1980 atmosphere; (2) with the emissions provided, the calculated decrease in O3 column is less than 1 percent; and (3) the effect of model grid resolution on O3 response is small provided that the physics is not modified.

Ko, Malcolm K. W.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Interannual variations of ozone - Interpretation of 4 years of satellite observations of total ozone

Observations show that the monthly zonal mean total ozone between 1978 and 1982 varies by as much as 5 percent with respect to the 4-year average. These variations have been analyzed with the aid of a two-dimensional chemistry transport model. Observed temperatures and meridional stream functions, calculated from data, were used as inputs for the model. Deviations of the model-calculated total ozone from the 4-year mean were compared with the observed variations. It is shown that a substantial part of the observed variability of total ozone is reproduced by the model, despite uncertainties in the heating rates and without any special attempts to obtain consistent eddy diffusion or otherwise to tune the model. Results indicate that the temperature dependence of the ozone gas phase chemistry plays a negligible role in explaining the observed interannual variations in total ozone. A large part of the variability can be explained by the year-to-year differences in the transport circulation. The variability of the diabatic circulation is shown to be largely independent of the ozone fluctuations and to be a consequence of the observed temperature variations.

Schneider, Hans R.↗
NASA NTRS1991

A dynamical explanation for the asymmetry in zonally averaged column abundances of ozone between northern and southern springs

The observed zonally averaged column ozone shows a maximum at 90 deg N during the northern winter and spring and at 60 deg S throughout the southern winter and spring. This asymmetry is explained in the context of a zonally averaged model with coupled radiation, dynamics, and chemistry, together with consistently parameterized planetary wave driving and wave transport. It is shown that in the presence of weak wave driving, the penetration of the tropospheric circulation into the lower stratosphere and the characteristics of ozone chemistry are such that they produce a column ozone maximum at subpolar latitudes. The effect of increased wave driving is to intensify the residual circulation and extend it farther poleward, resulting in an ozone maximum at the pole. The role of the mesospheric drag is to further enhance these column ozone maxima. Model calculations show that the positions of the observed column ozone maxima are consistent with intensities of wave driving in the two hemispheres derived from data.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Impact of biomass burning on tropospheric CO and OH - A two-dimensional study

Results are presented from a 2D model of the troposphere and stratosphere which allows the derivation of a budget for CO, as well as the assessment of contributions from different sources in maintaining observed CO concentrations. Attention is given to the results of a time-dependent calculation which evaluates the impact of present-day biomass burning on CO, OH, and CH4, as well as the time constants for the system to respond to changes in the biomass source.

Rodriguez, Jose M.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Ozone depletion and chlorine loading potentials

The recognition of the roles of chlorine and bromine compounds in ozone depletion has led to the regulation or their source gases. Some source gases are expected to be more damaging to the ozone layer than others, so that scientific guidance regarding their relative impacts is needed for regulatory purposes. Parameters used for this purpose include the steady-state and time-dependent chlorine loading potential (CLP) and the ozone depletion potential (ODP). Chlorine loading potentials depend upon the estimated value and accuracy of atmospheric lifetimes and are subject to significant (approximately 20-50 percent) uncertainties for many gases. Ozone depletion potentials depend on the same factors, as well as the evaluation of the release of reactive chlorine and bromine from each source gas and corresponding ozone destruction within the stratosphere.

Pyle, John A.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Predicted aircraft effects on stratospheric ozone

The possibility that the current fleet of subsonic aircraft may already have caused detectable changes in both the troposphere and stratosphere has raised concerns about the impact of such operations on stratospheric ozone and climate. Recent interest in the operation of supersonic aircraft in the lower stratosphere has heightened such concerns. Previous assessments of impacts from proposed supersonic aircraft were based mostly on one-dimensional model results although a limited number of multidimensional models were used. In the past 15 years, our understanding of the processes that control the atmospheric concentrations of trace gases has changed dramatically. This better understanding was achieved through accumulation of kinetic data and field observations as well as development of new models. It would be beneficial to start examining the impact of subsonic aircraft to identify opportunities to study and validate the mechanisms that were proposed to explain the ozone responses. The two major concerns are the potential for a decrease in the column abundance of ozone leading to an increase in ultraviolet radiation at the ground, and redistribution of ozone in the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere leading to changes in the Earth's climate. Two-dimensional models were used extensively for ozone assessment studies, with a focus on responses to chlorine perturbations. There are problems specific to the aircraft issues that are not adequately addressed by the current models. This chapter reviews the current status of the research on aircraft impact on ozone with emphasis on immediate model improvements necessary for extending our understanding. The discussion will be limited to current and projected commercial aircraft that are equipped with air-breathing engines using conventional jet fuel. The impacts are discussed in terms of the anticipated fuel use at cruise altitude.

Ko, Malcolm K. W.↗
NASA NTRS1990

The Space Shuttle's impact on the stratosphere

Launch of spacecraft using solid rocket motors leads to release of gaseous and particular matter in the stratosphere. Concern over these emissions, particularly chlorine, goes back to the Climatic Impact Assessment Program. The buildup of these exhaust products and their perturbation to stratospheric ozone are followed with two- and three-dimensional atmospheric chemical transport models. Chlorine enhancements due to the current rate of shuttle launches is small, on average less than 0.6 percent above the current background. Other gases emitted from the solid rockets appear to have even smaller global effects, although the impact of particulate alumina remains uncertain.

Prather, Michael J.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Response of an interactive two-dimensional model to ozone changes - An estimate of the radiative dynamical feedback effect

The response of the interactive two-dimensional stratospheric model described by Schneider et al. (1989) to an increased chemical removal of ozone and the sensitivity of the calculated assessments to the choice of eddy diffusion coefficients are investigated using a simplified ozone chemistry model. It was found that the radiative dynamical feedback in the model leads to ozone losses at high altitudes to be about one third smaller than predicted by a model with fixed temperature and circulation. The radiative feedback has a smaller effect on ozone (losses decrease by about one sixth) in the lower stratosphere. Predicted ozone losses increase with decreasing dissipation and eddy diffusion in the lower stratosphere.

Schneider, Hans R.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Model calculations of the relative effects of CFCs and their replacements on stratospheric ozone

Because chlorine has been linked to the destruction of stratospheric ozone, the use of many fully halogenated compounds, such as the chlorofluorocarbons CFC-11 and -12, is restricted by international agreement. Hydrohalocarbons are under intensive development as replacements for CFCs. Because they contain hydrogen, these gases are susceptible to tropospheric destruction which significantly shortens their atmospheric lifetimes,. Model calculations show that chlorine-containing hydrohalocarbons have less effect on ozone, by an order of magnitude, than their regulated counterparts.

Fisher, Donald A.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Atmospheric trace gases and global climate - A seasonal model study

Atmospheric models with seasonal cycles are used to study the possible near-future changes in latitudinal and vertical distributions of atmospheric ozone and temperature caused by increases of trace gases. It is found that increases of CFCs, CH4, and N2O may add to the surface warming from increased CO2. Calculations based on projected trends of CO2, N2O, CH4, and CFCs show that the annual mean and global mean surface temperature could warm by as much as 2.5 C by the year 2050, with larger warming at high latitudes. The results suggest that the warming in the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere is much larger than that at the surface, especially during the summer season.

Wang, Wei-Chyung↗
NASA NTRS1990

The role of chlorine chemistry in Antarctic ozone loss - Implications of new kinetic data

New kinetic data yielding a slower formation rate and larger absorption cross sections of Cl2O2 are incorporated into a photochemical model to reassess the role of chlorine chemistry in accounting for the ozone reductions derived from TOMS observations in different regions of the Antarctic polar vortex during 1987. The model is further constrained by existing measurements from the Airborne Antarctic Ozone Experiment and the National Ozone Expedition II. Calculated concentrations of ClO based on the new kinetic data increase by almost a factor of two between the collar and core regions of the vortex during the second half of September. The calculated ozone reductions in the vortex core appear to be consistent with the TOMS observations in spite of the slower rate for the self-reaction of ClO.

Rodriguez, Jose M.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Relative effects on stratospheric ozone of halogenated methanes and ethanes of social and industrial interest

Four atmospheric modeling groups have calculated relative effects of several halocarbons (chlorofluorocarbons (CFC's)-11, 12, 113, 114, and 115; hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFC's) 22, 123, 124, 141b, and 142b; hydrofluorocarbons (HFC's) 125, 134a, 143a, and 152a, carbon tetrachloride; and methyl chloroform) on stratospheric ozone. Effects on stratospheric ozone were calculated for each compound and normalized relative to the effect of CFC-11. These models include the representations for homogeneous physical and chemical processes in the middle atmosphere but do no account for either heterogeneous chemistry or polar dynamics which are important in the spring time loss of ozone over Antarctica. Relative calculated effects using a range of models compare reasonably well. Within the limits of the uncertainties of these model results, compounds now under consideration as functional replacements for fully halogenated compounds have modeled stratospheric ozone reductions of 10 percent or less of that of CFC-11. Sensitivity analyses examined the sensitivity of relative calculated effects to levels of other trace gases, assumed transport in the models, and latitudinal and seasonal local dependencies. Relative effects on polar ozone are discussed in the context of evolving information on the special processes affecting ozone, especially during polar winter-springtime. Lastly, the time dependency of relative effects were calculated.

Fisher, Donald A.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Relative effects on global warming of halogenated methanes and ethanes of social and industrial interest

The relative potential global warming effects for several halocarbons (chlorofluorocarbons (CFC's)-11, 12, 113, 114, and 115; hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFC's) 22, 123, 124, 141b, and 142b; and hydrofluorocarbons (HFC's) 125, 134a, 143a, and 152a; carbon tetrachloride; and methyl chloroform) were calculated by two atmospheric modeling groups. These calculations were based on atmospheric chemistry and radiative convective models to determine the chemical profiles and the radiative processes. The resulting relative greenhouse warming when normalized to the effect of CFC-11 agree reasonably well as long as we account for differences between modeled lifetimes. Differences among results are discussed. Sensitivity of relative warming values is determined with respect to trace gas levels assumed. Transient relative global warming effects are analyzed.

Fisher, Donald A.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Report of the 1988 2-D Intercomparison Workshop, chapter 3

Several factors contribute to the errors encountered. With the exception of the line-by-line model, all of the models employ simplifying assumptions that place fundamental limits on their accuracy and range of validity. For example, all 2-D modeling groups use the diffusivity factor approximation. This approximation produces little error in tropospheric H2O and CO2 cooling rates, but can produce significant errors in CO2 and O3 cooling rates at the stratopause. All models suffer from fundamental uncertainties in shapes and strengths of spectral lines. Thermal flux algorithms being used in 2-D tracer tranport models produce cooling rates that differ by as much as 40 percent for the same input model atmosphere. Disagreements of this magnitude are important since the thermal cooling rates must be subtracted from the almost-equal solar heating rates to derive the net radiative heating rates and the 2-D model diabatic circulation. For much of the annual cycle, the net radiative heating rates are comparable in magnitude to the cooling rate differences described. Many of the models underestimate the cooling rates in the middle and lower stratosphere. The consequences of these errors for the net heating rates and the diabatic circulation will depend on their meridional structure, which was not tested here. Other models underestimate the cooling near 1 mbar. Suchs errors pose potential problems for future interactive ozone assessment studies, since they could produce artificially-high temperatures and increased O3 destruction at these levels. These concerns suggest that a great deal of work is needed to improve the performance of thermal cooling rate algorithms used in the 2-D tracer transport models.

Jackman, Charles H.↗
NASA NTRS1989

The roles of dynamical and chemical processes in determining the stratospheric concentration of ozone in one-dimensional and two-dimensional models

The two-dimensional model of Ko et al. (1985) was used to calculate the stratospheric concentrations of ozone, to determine the principal modes of balance for different stratospheric regions. The results of this analysis show that the local concentration of ozone in different regions of stratosphere is determined by balances between different mechanisms. In the upper stratosphere, the ozone concentration is dominated by photochemical processes, whereas in the mid-lower stratosphere, the bulk of ozone appears to be controlled by an interaction between the transport and the photochemical processes. The results point to the limitations of one-dimensional models, which fail to properly account for the effect of transport in the lower stratosphere.

Ko, Malcolm K. W.↗