Advanced Computational Accident Scenario Modeling for Safety Margin Economic Analysis
The intent of this research is to establish a new tool in the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) tool-kit for the fiscal analysis of potential power plant upgrades. This is being done by providing proof-of-concept of the Safety Margin Economic Evaluation (SMEE) methodology of performing cost-benefit analyses of potential Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) upgrades to allow for more data-driven decision making with regards to nuclear safety. To this end, the RAVEN code developed by the Idaho National Laboratory is being used to perform a cost-benefit analysis of several potential power plant safety upgrades to compare the material cost of the upgrades with the probabilistic benefit of avoiding accident scenario consequences to find the most cost effective safety upgrades. Additionally, the MELCOR and MACCS2 codes developed by the Sandia National Laboratory are being used for accident scenario modeling. Evaluating potential NPP upgrades is concluded by doing a detailed cost-benefit analysis of the upgrades. The cost of the upgrade is the direct material cost of implementing, maintaining, and operating the upgrade at an NPP for the projected duration of its lifetime. The benefit of the upgrade is more complex, and is essentially the Risk avoided, where Risk is defined as Consequences multiplied by Probability. Here, Consequences is the economic impact of a severe accident and/or nuclear release and Probability is the likelihood that an NPP upgrade will prevent or mitigate a severe accident, reducing or even eliminating its Consequences. (authors)