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Kim, Son H.

Publications and source records attributed to Kim, Son H..

At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Modeling the Potential Impact of Storage on the US Power Sector in a Multisector Dynamic Context

The electric power sector is expected to grow in size, importance, and complexity around the world as economies expand and electric supply technologies and demand patterns evolve in significant ways. At the same time the electric power sector may see substantial increases in VRE generating technologies which can add variability and uncertainty to the diurnal and seasonal profile of electric supply. With these forces in play, the emergence of modular, flexible electricity storage technologies may have profound impacts on the operation of electric power systems. Here we reduce a storage modeling gap in MSD models by incorporating grid-based electricity storage into the electric sector dynamics of the Global Change Analysis Model-USA (GCAM-USA) with improved power sector representation. We find a potentially significant role for storage technologies in the future of the U.S. power system, with storage capacity ranging from 7.7 to 14.7 GW in 2050 and 13.9 to 31.6 GW in 2100 across several techno-economic scenarios. We also find that storage can help to smooth variability in residual load arising from evolving electricity demands and the introduction of high shares of VRE to the electric grid. This reduces reliance on high-cost peaking generators, improves system-wide capacity factors, and limits curtailment of VRE.

Patel, Pralit L.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hydropower expansion in eco-sensitive river basins under global energy-economic change

Vast hydropower resources remain untapped globally, the deployment of which could provide energy-economic benefits but impact riverine ecosystems. Across eco-sensitive river basins, it is unclear how drivers of hydropower expansion, such as rapid economic growth and a low-carbon energy transition, could interact with countervailing forces, such as increasingly cost-competitive variable renewable energy (VRE). Using an integrated energy-water-economy model, we explore the effects of these forces on long-term hydropower expansion in the world’s 20 most eco-sensitive basins, which have high ecological richness and untapped hydropower potential. Here, we find that a low-carbon transition exerts the strongest development pressure, causing deployment exceeding 80% of exploitable potential in more than 72% of eco-sensitive basins by 2050, most of which have limited deployment today. Rapid economic growth induces such extensive deployment in only 44% of eco-sensitive basins. Enhanced integration of VRE reduces deployment, alleviating the impacts of rapid economic growth but not the low-carbon transition.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Scenarios of Nuclear Energy Use in the United States for the 21st Century

The uncertainty in the cost of nuclear energy coinciding with efforts to address climate change are contributing to the uncertainty in the future role of nuclear energy in the US electricity system and the response to addressing global climate change. Sensitivity cases of alternative nuclear capital costs, ranging from 2600 to 6600 $\$ $/kW, were investigated with scenarios of alternative carbon mitigation policies, including 50, 100, and 150 $\$ $/tCO 2 carbon tax cases and economy-wide net-zero goals by 2050, 2060, and 2070 for the US. The resulting US nuclear power capacity ranged from 130 to 240 GW in 2050 and 90 to 450 GW in 2100 from nuclear cost sensitivity cases without carbon mitigation policies. Imposing policies to achieve the decarbonization of electricity and net-zero emission goals increased the range of nuclear power capacity from 190 to 460 GW in 2050 and 210 to 850 GW by 2100, where the range is from the low and high nuclear cost cases. Carbon penalties beyond 100 $\$ $/tCO 2 had a diminishing role on the expansion of nuclear power as the electricity sector becomes fully decarbonized. The 50 $\$ $/tCO 2 tax had the nuclear capital cost equivalency of 1000 $\$ $/kW reduction, while the 100 $\$ $/tCO 2 tax had the equivalency of 2000 $\$ $/kW reduction. Net-zero goals increased the contribution of nuclear power due to the increase in total electricity demand, but the delay in the timing of net-zero did not significantly affect the role of nuclear in the long-term. All net-zero goals were similar in their energy system impact with resulting carbon tax levels reaching 300 $\$ $/tCO 2 . Electricity is fully decarbonized in the net-zero scenarios and carbon pricing beyond 100 to 150 $\$ $/tCO 2 had little influence on the additional deployment of nuclear power. Regardless of the carbon policy, however, nuclear capital cost reductions had a clear and pronounced impact on the expanded deployment of nuclear power under all scenarios.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimated HALEU Requirements for Advanced Reactors to Support a Net-Zero Emissions Economy by 2050

The primary purpose of this report is to provide a documented estimate of High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium (HALEU) needs that may be used in Department of Energy discussions with stakeholders as part of preparations to establish the HALEU Availability Program authorized by the Energy Act of 2020. This report employed a two-step process to estimate HALEU needs for commercial advanced reactors.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Agricultural impacts of sustainable water use in the United States

Abstract Governance measures such as restrictions on groundwater pumping and adjustments to sectoral water pricing have been suggested as response strategies to curtail recent increases in groundwater pumping and enhance sustainable water use. However, little is known about the impacts of such sustainability strategies. We investigate the implications of such measures, with the United States (U.S.) as an example. Using the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) with state-level details in the U.S., we find that the combination of these two governance measures can drastically alter agricultural production in the U.S. The Southwest stands to lose upwards of 25% of their total agricultural production, much of which is compensated for by production increases in river basins on the east coast of the U.S. The implementation of future sustainable water governance measures will require additional investments that allow farmers to maximize production while minimizing water withdrawals to avoid potentially detrimental revenue losses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Impacts of long-term temperature change and variability on electricity investments

Long-term temperature change and variability are expected to have significant impacts on future electric capacity and investments. This study improves upon past studies by accounting for hourly and monthly dynamics of electricity use, long-term socioeconomic drivers, and interactions of the electric sector with rest of the economy for a comprehensive analysis of temperature change impacts on cooling and heating services and their corresponding impact on electric capacity and investments. Using the United States as an example, here we show that under a scenario consistent with a socioeconomic pathway 2 (SSP2) and representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP 8.5), mean temperature changes drive increases in annual electricity demands by 0.5-8% across states in 2100. But more importantly, peak temperature changes drive increases in capital investments by 3-22%. Moreover, temperature-induced capital investments are highly sensitive to both long-term socioeconomic assumptions and spatial heterogeneity of fuel prices and capital stock characteristics, which underscores the importance of a comprehensive approach to inform long-term electric sector planning.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Future changes in the trading of virtual water

Water stressed regions rely heavily on the import of water-intensive goods to offset insufficient food production driven by socioeconomic and environmental factors. The water embedded in these traded commodities, virtual water, has received increasing interest in the scientific community. However, comprehensive future projections of virtual water trading remain absent. Here we show, for the first time, changes over the 21st century in the amount of various water types required to meet international agricultural demands. Accounting for evolution in socioeconomic and climatic conditions, we estimate future interregional virtual water trading and find trading of renewable water sources may triple by 2100 while nonrenewable groundwater trading may at least double. Basins in North America, and the La Plata and Nile Rivers are found to contribute extensively to virtual water exports, while much of Africa, India, and the Middle East relies heavily on virtual water imports by the end of the century.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

The role of nuclear in China’s energy future: insights from integrated assessment

China, the world’s largest electricity consumer, has strong motivations to deploy nuclear power due to increasing electricity demand and environmental concerns. However, there are social, institutional, and technical barriers to future nuclear expansion. This paper provides an updated assessment of nuclear energy potential in China with analyses at both national and provincial levels and compares results with studies previously conducted. Using an integrated assessment model, this paper considers the interactions among different socioeconomic development pathways, technology options, climate policies, and social/political concerns on inland siting. Among all factors explored, climate policies have the most significant impact on accelerating the deployment of nuclear technologies. Inland siting of nuclear power plants increases total capacity, but the impact is limited without climate policy. The amount of annual nuclear generation across scenarios and studies is unlikely to rise above 11% by 2030 and 30% by 2050 of total Chinese electricity generation. A dramatic increase in total Chinese nuclear energy generating capacity – around 3900 TWh of nuclear generation by 2050 – is only possible in scenarios where China sees electricity demand increase substantially, sticks to and tightens its current Paris Accord commitments, achieves low costs of nuclear technologies, and allows inland siting of nuclear power plants.

China, integrated assesment, Nuclear Power Plants↗
DOE OSTI2019

A pathway of global food supply adaptation in a world with increasingly constrained groundwater

Many of the world’s major freshwater aquifers are being exploited unsustainably, with some projected to approach environmentally unsafe drawdown limits within the 21st century. Given that aquifer depletion tends to occur in important crop producing regions, the prospect of running dry poses a significant threat to global food security. Here we use the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) to explore the response of land use and agriculture sectors to severe constraints on global water resources. We simulate a scenario in which a number of important groundwater aquifers become depleted beyond environmental or economically viable drawdown limits within the 21st century. Results are then benchmarked against scenario that neglects constraints on water extractions. We find that groundwater depletion and associated water price increases drive two distinct responses in the agriculture sector: an expansion of rain fed agriculture, and a shift in irrigated crop production toward regions with cheaper water resources. Losses in crop production are most pronounced in water stressed regions where groundwater is being depleted unsustainably to meet irrigation demands—namely northwest India, Pakistan, the Middle East, western United States, Mexico, and Central Asia. While these results highlight substantial risks for the affected regional agricultural economies, we show that modest changes in irrigation and location of crop growth could ensure global food demands are met despite severe water constraints.

Turner, Sean WD↗
DOE OSTI2019

Influence of Groundwater Extraction Costs and Resource Depletion Limits on Simulated Global Nonrenewable Water Withdrawals Over the Twenty‐First Century

Abstract Future rates of global groundwater depletion will depend on the economic and environmental viability of extracting water from increasingly stressed aquifers. Here we analyze global groundwater depletion by considering these factors explicitly. Global gridded groundwater availability and extraction cost data are aggregated to produce nonrenewable resource supply curves for 235 major river basins and geopolitical regions. These resources are then exposed to dynamically generated demands for water in a fully coupled, multisectoral, global simulation. As groundwater head levels drop, imposing greater capital and operating costs to bring water to the surface, modeled water use sectors are able to deploy a range of supply‐ and demand‐driven adaptive responses. Results demonstrate large sensitivity in global groundwater depletion rates to adjustments in resource exploitability. Extraction costs moderate demands for nonrenewable water substantially, resulting in the onset of a decline in global groundwater depletion rates within the twenty‐first century. New groundwater depletion hot spots may emerge as crop producers abandon overexploited basins and expand croplands in regions with cheaper, more plentiful water resources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Water Sector Assumptions for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways in an Integrated Modeling Framework

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) were created without explicit assumptions for the future of the water sector; so, projections of future water demands based on the SSPs often lack a treatment of water technology assumptions that is consistent with the SSP storylines. This report has developed a set of qualitative and quantitative assumptions for future water sector technological advancements in the agricultural, electricity, manufacturing, and municipal sectors within the SSPs, and then applied the resulting scenarios to an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) to permit analysis of future water demand in a water-constrained world. These scenarios are then compared to another set that excludes the adoption of water-efficient technologies. Water demand impacts of individual SSP assumption categories are analyzed to determine scenario-by-scenario changes. By 2100, global annual water demands range from 3560 km3 to 6600 km3. The results show that, 1) technological change in the water sector can act to reduce water demand in a water limited world by up to 32% in 2100 in the SSP scenarios; 2) the most sustainable scenario produces end-of-century water withdrawals lower than 2010 values; 3) low-income regions will likely be one of the largest drivers of future water demands and exhibit the greatest sensitivity to highly-efficient water technologies; and 4) non-water sector SSP assumptions have significant and differing impacts on demands across SSP scenarios that act to alter global water demands.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Climate impacts on hydropower and consequences for global electricity supply investment needs

Recent progress in global scale hydrological and dam modeling has allowed for the study of climate change impacts on global hydropower production. Here we explore the possible consequences of these impacts for the electricity supply sector. Regional hydropower projections are developed for two emissions scenarios by forcing a coupled global hydrological and dam model with downscaled, bias-corrected climate realizations derived from sixteen general circulation models. Consequent impacts on power sector composition and associated emissions and investment costs are explored using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Changes in hydropower generation resulting from climate change can shift power demands onto and away from carbon intensive technologies, resulting in significant impacts on power sector CO2 emissions for certain world regions—primarily those located in Latin America, as well as Canada and parts of Europe. Reduced impacts of climate change on hydropower production under a low emissions scenario coincide with increased costs of marginal power generating capacity—meaning impacts on power sector investment costs are similar for high and low emissions scenarios. Individual countries where impacts on investment costs imply significant risks or opportunities are identified.

Turner, Sean W. D. (ORCID:0000000344009800)↗
DOE OSTI2017

Cost of power or power of cost: A U.S. modeling perspective

Future scenarios and assessment studies used to prepare for long-term energy transitions and develop robust strategies to address climate change are highly dependent on the assessment of technology characteristics and availability. The electric power sector in the United States recently experienced a significant cost escalation: e.g. construction costs for large plants such as nuclear and coal-fired power plants doubled between 2003 and 2007. In this work, we assess the main drivers of this escalation. While many factors have affected costs, some of the most significant include cost of materials, particularly the price of metals and to a lesser extent cement, possible increases in labor quantity requirements, the aggressive worldwide competition for power plant design and construction resources, driven by high demand in Asia, regulatory tightening, and general uncertainty about future regulations and climate policies. We recalibrate power sector technology costs in the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) based on an extensive literature review of recent (post-2010) studies and in the process develop a coherent and updated set of current cost and performance assumptions for all major electricity-generating technologies. While current cost and performance assumptions of electricity-generating technologies are key drivers of short-term technology deployment and technology mix in the electricity sector, medium- and long-term deployment pathways are significantly affected by assumed efficiency improvement rates and cost reductions. Furthermore, we develop and demonstrate a method to forecast efficiency and construction cost of power plants and a sensitivity analysis to explore the importance of such assumptions in future scenarios generated by GCAM.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2016

Global and Regional Evaluation of Energy for Water

Despite significant effort to quantify the inter-dependence of the water and energy sectors, global requirements of energy for water (E4W) are still poorly understood, which may result in biases in projections and consequently in water and energy management and policy. This study estimates water-related energy consumption by water source, sector, and process, for 14 global regions from 1973 to 2012. Globally, E4W amounted to 10.2 ± 5 EJ of primary energy consumption in 2010, accounting for 1.2–3% of total global primary energy consumption, of which 58% pertains to surface water, 30% to groundwater, and 12% to non-fresh water, assuming median energy intensity levels. The sectoral E4W allocation includes municipal (45%), industrial (30%), and agricultural (25%), and main process-level contributions are from source/conveyance (39%), water purification (27%), water distribution (12%) and wastewater treatment (18%). While the USA was the largest E4W consumer from the 1970’s until the 2000’s, the largest consumers at present are the Middle East, India, and China, driven by rapid growth in desalination, groundwater-based irrigation, and industrial and municipal water use, respectively. The improved understanding of global E4W will enable enhanced consistency of both water and energy representations in integrated assessment models.

Liu, Yaling↗
DOE OSTI2016

Balancing global water availability and use at basin scale in an integrated assessment model

Water is essential for the world’s food supply, for energy production, including bioenergy and hydroelectric power, and for power system cooling. Water is already scarce in many regions of the world and could present a critical constraint as society attempts simultaneously to mitigate climate forcing and adapt to climate change, and to provide for a larger and more prosperous human population. Numerous studies have pointed to growing pressures on the world’s scarce fresh water resources from population and economic growth, and climate change. This study goes further. We use the Global Change Assessment Model to analyze interactions between population, economic growth, energy, land and water resources simultaneously in a dynamically evolving system where competing claims on water resources from all claimants—energy, land, and economy—are reconciled with water resource availability—from renewable water, non-renewable groundwater sources and desalinated water—across 14 geopolitical regions, 151 agriculture-ecological zones, and 235 major river basins. We find that previous estimates of global water withdrawal projections are overestimated. Model simulations show that it is more economical in some basins to alter agricultural and energy activities rather than utilize non-renewable groundwater or desalinated water. This study highlights the importance of accounting for water as a binding factor in agriculture, energy and land use decisions in IAMs and implications for global responses to water scarcity, particularly in the trade of agricultural commodities and land-use decisions.

basin↗
DOE OSTI2015

The integrated Earth system model version 1: formulation and functionality

The integrated Earth system model (iESM) has been developed as a new tool for projecting the joint human/climate system. The iESM is based upon coupling an integrated assessment model (IAM) and an Earth system model (ESM) into a common modeling infrastructure. IAMs are the primary tool for describing the human–Earth system, including the sources of global greenhouse gases (GHGs) and short-lived species (SLS), land use and land cover change (LULCC), and other resource-related drivers of anthropogenic climate change. ESMs are the primary scientific tools for examining the physical, chemical, and biogeochemical impacts of human-induced changes to the climate system. The iESM project integrates the economic and human-dimension modeling of an IAM and a fully coupled ESM within a single simulation system while maintaining the separability of each model if needed. Both IAM and ESM codes are developed and used by large communities and have been extensively applied in recent national and international climate assessments. By introducing heretofore-omitted feedbacks between natural and societal drivers, we can improve scientific understanding of the human–Earth system dynamics. Potential applications include studies of the interactions and feedbacks leading to the timing, scale, and geographic distribution of emissions trajectories and other human influences, corresponding climate effects, and the subsequent impacts of a changing climate on human and natural systems. This paper describes the formulation, requirements, implementation, testing, and resulting functionality of the first version of the iESM released to the global climate community.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗