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Kessler, Donald J.

Publications and source records attributed to Kessler, Donald J..

18 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1995

Orbital debris and meteoroid population as estimated from LDEF impact data

Examination of LDEF's various surfaces shows numerous craters and holes due to hypervelocity impacts of meteoroids and man-made orbital debris. In this paper, the crater numbers as reported by Humes have been analyzed in an effort to understand the orbital debris and natural meteoroid environment in LEO. To determine the fraction of man-made to natural impacts, the side to top ratio of impacts and results of the Chemistry of Micrometeoroids Experiment are used. For craters in the 100 micron to 500 micron size range, about 25 percent to 30 percent of the impacts on the forward-facing surfaces and about 10 percent of the impacts on the trailing surfaces were estimated due to man-made orbital debris. A technique has been developed to convert crater numbers to particle fluxes, taking the fact into account that the distributions of impact velocity and incidence angle vary over the different surfaces of LDEF, as well as the ratio of the surface area flux to the cross-sectional area flux. Applying this technique, Humes' data concerning craters with limiting lip diameters of 100 micron, 200 micron and 500 micron have been converted into orbital debris and meteoroid fluxes ranging from about 20 micron to 200 micron particle diameter. The results exhibit good agreement with orbital debris model and meteoroid model. The converted meteoroid flux is slightly larger than Grun's model (by 40 to 70 percent). The converted orbital debris flux is slightly lower than Kessler's model for particle diameter smaller than about 30 micron and slightly larger than the model for particle diameter larger than about 40 micron. Taking also into account the IDE data point at about 0.8 micron particle diameter, it suggests to change the slope log (flux) versus log (diameter) of orbital debris flux in the 1 micron to 100 micron particle diameter range from 2.5 to 1.9.

Zhang, Jingchang↗
NASA NTRS1993

Origin of orbital debris impacts on LDEF's trailing surfaces

A model was developed to determine the origin of orbital impacts measured on the training surfaces of LDEF. The model calculates the expected debris impact crater distribution around LDEF as a function of debris orbital parameters. The results show that only highly elliptical, low inclination orbits could be responsible for these impacts. The most common objects left in this type of orbit are orbital transfer stages used by the U.S. and ESA to place payloads into geosynchronous orbit. Objects in this type of orbit are difficult to catalog by the U.S. Space Command; consequently there are independent reasons to believe that the catalog does not adequately represent this population. This analysis concludes that the relative number of cataloged objects with highly elliptical, low inclination orbits must be increased by a factor of 20 to be consistent with the LDEF data.

Kessler, Donald J.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Origin of orbital debris impacts on Long Duration Exposure Facility's (LDEF) trailing surfaces

Orbital debris tracked by the US Space Command is mostly in near circular orbit around the Earth. If small debris were in the same types of orbits, there would be very few orbital debris impacts on the Long Duration Exposure Facility's (LDEF's) trailing surfaces. However, at least 15 percent of the impacts found on the trailing A03 gold surface was found to be orbital debris impacts. This measurement suggests that the orbital distribution of small debris is not the same as that of larger debris. Although this is not a total surprise, since modelling of satellite breakups has predicted different distributions, it does raise questions as to what types of orbits could be responsible for these impacts. A model was developed to explain these LDEF results. The model calculates the expected debris impact crater distribution around LDEF, as a function of debris orbital parameters. The results show that only low inclination and highly elliptical orbits could be responsible for these impacts. The most common object left in this type of orbit is an orbital transfer stage, used by the US and ESA to place objects into geosynchronous orbit, and inclinations near 28 and 7 degrees for the US and ESA, respectively. Even large fragments from satellites, which break up in these types of orbits, are difficult to observe from the ground; consequently, little is known about the number and characteristics of breakups in these orbits. The LDEF data suggest that these objects are breaking up. The LDEF data also suggest that the ratio of the contribution of small debris from this type of orbit to the contribution from circular orbits is about an order of magnitude larger than the same ratio for debris tracked by the US Space Command.

Kessler, Donald J.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Analysis of orbital perturbations acting on objects in orbits near geosynchronous earth orbit

The paper presents a numerical investigation of orbital evolution for objects started in GEO or in orbits near GEO in order to study potential orbital debris problems in this region. Perturbations simulated include nonspherical terms in the earth's geopotential field, lunar and solar gravity, and solar radiation pressure. Objects simulated include large satellites, for which solar radiation pressure is insignificant, and small particles, for which solar radiation pressure is an important force. Results for large satellites are largely in agreement with previous GEO studies that used classical perturbation techniques. The orbit plane of GEO satellites placed in a stable plane orbit inclined approximately 7.3 deg to the equator experience very little precession, remaining always within 1.2 percent of their initial orientation. Solar radiation pressure generates two major effects on small particles: an orbital eccentricity oscillation anticipated from previous research, and an oscillation in orbital inclination.

Friesen, Larry J.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Management of the orbital environment

Data regarding orbital debris are presented to shed light on the requirements of environmental management in space, and strategies are given for active intervention and operational strategies. Debris are generated by inadvertent explosions of upper stages, intentional military explosions, and collisional breakups. Design and operation practices are set forth for minimizing debris generation and removing useless debris from orbit in the low-earth and geosynchronous orbits. Self-disposal options include propulsive maneuvers, drag-augmentation devices, and tether systems, and the drag devices are described as simple and passive. Active retrieval and disposition are considered, and the difficulty is examined of removing small debris. Active intervention techniques are required since pollution prevention is more effective than remediation for the problems of both earth and space.

Loftus, Joseph P., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1991

A rapid method of estimating the collision frequencies between the earth and the earth-crossing bodies

The present study examines a very fast method of calculating the collision frequency between two low-eccentricity orbiting bodies for evaluating the evolution of earth-orbiting objects such as space debris. The results are very accurate and the required computer time is negligible. The method is now applied without modification to calculate the collision frequencies for moderately and highly eccentric orbits.

Su, Shin-Yi↗
NASA NTRS1991

Collisional cascading - The limits of population growth in low earth orbit

Random collisions between made-made objects in earth orbit will lead to a significant source of orbital debris, but there are a number of uncertainties in these models, and additional analysis and data are required to fully characterize the future environment. However, the nature of these uncertainties are such that while the future environment is uncertain, the fact that collisions will control the future environment is less uncertain. The data that already exist is sufficient to show that cascading collisions will control the future debris environment with no, or very minor increases in the current low-earth-orbit population. Two populations control this process: explosion fragments and expended rocket bodies and payloads. Practices are already changing to limit explosions in low earth orbit; it is necessary to begin limiting the number of expended rocket bodies and payloads in orbit.

Kessler, Donald J.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Orbital debris environment for spacecraft in low earth orbit

Modeling and measurement results used in formulating an environment model that can be used for the engineering design of spacecraft are reviewed. Earth-based and space-based sensors are analyzed and it is noted that the effects of satellite breakups can be modeled to predict a uncatalogued population, if the nature of the breakup is understood. It is observed that the telescopic data indicate that the current model is too low for sizes slightly larger than 10 cm, and may be too low for sizes between 2 cm and 10 cm, while there is an uncertainty in the current development, especially for sizes smaller than 10 cm, and at altitudes different from 500 km. Projections for the catastrophic collision rate for different growth conditions are made, emphasizing that the rate of growth of fragments will be twice the rate of intact objects.

Kessler, Donald J.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Results in orbital evolution of objects in the geosynchronous region

The orbital evolution of objects at or near geosynchronous orbit (GEO) has been simulated to investigate possible hazards to working geosynchronous satellites. Orbits of both large satellites and small particles have been simulated, subject to perturbations by nonspherical geopotential terms, lunar and solar gravity, and solar radiation pressure. Large satellites in initially circular orbits show an expected cycle of inclination change driven by lunar and solar gravity, but very little altitude change. They thus have little chance of colliding with objects at other altitudes. However, if such a satellite is disrupted, debris can reach thousands of kilometers above or below the initial satellite altitude. Small particles in GEO experience two cycles driven by solar radiation: an expected eccentricity cycle and an inclination cycle not expected. Particles generated by GEO insertion stage solid rocket motors typically hit the earth or escape promptly; a small fraction appear to remain in persistent orbits.

Friesen, Larry Jay↗
NASA NTRS1990

Collision probability at low altitudes resulting from elliptical orbits

The probability of collision between a spacecraft and another object is calculated for various altitude and orbit conditions, and factors affecting the probability are discussed. It is shown that a collision can only occur when the spacecraft is located at an altitude which is between the perigee and apogee altitudes of the object and that the probability per unit time is largest when the orbit of the object is nearly circular. However, at low altitudes, the atmospheric drag causes changes with time of the perigee and the apogee, such that circular orbits have a much shorter lifetime than many of the elliptical orbits. Thus, when the collision probability is integrated over the lifetime of the orbiting object, some elliptical orbits are found to have much higher total collision probability than circular orbits. Rocket bodies used to boost payloads from low earth orbit to geosynchronous orbit are an example of objects in these elliptical orbits.

Kessler, Donald J.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Effects on the orbital debris environment due to solar activity

The rate that earth-orbiting debris is removed from the environment is dependent on a number of factors which include orbital altitude and solar activity. It is generally believed that at lower altitudes and especially during periods of high solar activity, debris generated in the past will be eliminated from the environment. While some debris is eliminated, most is replaced by old debris from higher altitudes or new debris from recent launches. Some low altitude debris, which would reenter if the debris were in circular orbits, does not reenter because the debris is in higher-energy elliptical orbits.

Kessler, Donald J.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Approaches to dealing with meteoroid and orbital debris protection on the Space Station

Viewgraphs and discussion on approaches to dealing with meteoroid and orbital debris protection on the space station are presented. The National Space Policy of February, 1988, included the following: 'All sectors will seek to minimize the creation of space debris. Design and operations of space tests, experiments, and systems will strive to minimize or reduce accumulation of space debris consistent with mission requirements and cost effectiveness.' The policy also tasked the National Security Council, which established an Interagency Group, which in turn produced an Interagency Report. NASA and DoD tasks to establish a joint plan to determine techniques to measure the environment, and techniques to reduce the environment are addressed. Topics covered include: orbital debris environment, meteoroids, orbital debris population, cataloged earth satellite population, USSPACECOM cataloged objects, and orbital debris radar program.

Kessler, Donald J.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Orbital debris environment and data requirements

Orbital debris is already a major design consideration for Space Station Freedom and is becoming important to the design of unmanned spacecraft. Mathematical models predict the environment will increase with time. The amount it increases is dependent on future operations in space, and how these operations are conducted. Therefore, it is important to understand the sources of debris and which operations will minimize debris generation. This requires that debris be monitored. Currently, NASA plans to have an operational capability to monitor 1 cm debris at 500 km by 1991. However, there are currently no plans to monitor the environment of smaller debris which will be important to future spacecraft design.

Kessler, Donald J.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Current orbital debris environment

NASA has instituted a plan for the definition of activities and resources required over the coming decade for the deepening of current understanding of anthropogenic orbital debris, and its effects on future mission operations. This understanding will be the basis of policy definition and policy implementation efforts. The most immediate requirement is the definition of the debris environment, with emphasis on data for debris sizes smaller than 4 cm. Systems-damage criteria and hypervelocity-impact theory will then be used to define the hazard to specific spacecraft.

Kessler, Donald J.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Orbital debris environment for spacecraft designed to operate in low Earth orbit

The orbital debris environment model is intended to be used by the spacecraft community for the design and operation of spacecraft in low Earth orbit. This environment, when combined with material-dependent impact tests and spacecraft failure analysis, is intended to be used to evaluate spacecraft vulnerability, reliability, and shielding requirements. The environment represents a compromise between existing data to measure the environment, modeling of this data to predict the future environment, the uncertainty in both measurements and modeling, and the need to describe the environment so that various options concerning spacecraft design and operations can be easily evaluated.

Kessler, Donald J.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Predicting debris

The probable amount, sizes, and relative velocities of debris are discussed, giving examples of the damage caused by debris, and focusing on the use of mathematical models to forecast the debris environment and solar activity now and in the future. Most debris are within 2,000 km of the earth's surface. The average velocity of spacecraft-debris collisions varies from 9 km/sec at 30 degrees of inclination to 13 km/sec near polar orbits. Mathematical models predict a 5 percent per year increase in the large-fragment population, producing a small-fragment population increase of 10 percent per year until the year 2060, the time of critical density. A 10 percent increase in the large population would cause the critical density to be reached around 2025.

Kessler, Donald J.↗