Engineering topics

Kelly, Jarod

Publications and source records attributed to Kelly, Jarod.

4 records

DOE OSTI2024

Quantification of Commercially Planned Battery Component Supply in North America through 2035

There is the potential for rapid growth in battery manufacturing in North America in the coming years, as indicated by investment plans which companies have announced. Argonne National Laboratory is tracking these investment announcements to understand the availability of domestically produced battery cells and battery components over the next decade. We find that companies have made announcements for over 1,300 GWh/year of lithium-ion battery cell production by 2030, enough to conservatively supply ten million electric vehicles and expected growth in stationary grid storage. From 2021 to 2032, battery cell production is modeled to grow 28-fold. For each of the core battery components of lithium-ion batteries (cathodes, anodes, separators, electrolytes, and foils), we describe the current announced capacities for materials with respect to cell production and end-use demand, finding similar rapid growth for each.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Mitigation of emissions and energy consumption due to light-duty vehicle size increases

Analysts need to consider the shift of light-duty vehicle sales from cars to light trucks to accurately project fuel consumption, greenhouse gas emissions, and consumer spending. Here, we find that energy consumed by on-road light-duty vehicles in the United States can vary by 10% by changing assumptions regarding the sales mix. Scenarios aligned with third-party forecasts, assuming a greater sales proportion of light trucks and fewer cars, yield petroleum consumption 3–8% higher than forecasts from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), with greenhouse gas emissions 5–7% higher and a 4–9% increase in consumer spending on vehicles and fuel. This incremental energy consumption can be offset by additional technologies for these vehicles. If most sedans were phased out in favor of larger sport utility vehicles, we find a sales share of 30% battery electric vehicles or 39% hybrid electric vehicles would equal the emissions of the EIA Reference Case.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Regional Variation in Light-Duty Plug-in Electric Vehicle Emissions

Automobile electrification is viewed as one of the key requirements for deep decarbonization of transportation. However, the exact magnitude of decarbonization from switching from a combustion of petroleum-based fuels to grid-derived electricity is a complex issue. Variations in local grid mixes lead to differing carbon intensities of electricity in different regions. This complexity is compounded by geographical differences in vehicle characteristics. This analysis considers these geographic differences to produce a historical assessment of the fuel-cycle carbon emissions of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) in the United States from 2011 to 2021. We find that PEVs in the United States decreased in electricity-derived carbon intensity, from 187 grams per mile to 110 grams per mile from 2011 to 2021 due to improvements in the electric grid and vehicle efficiency. Through 2021, PEVs emitted a total of 13.6 million metric tons of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the United States, including both emissions from electricity and gasoline, while driving a total of 100 billion miles. Of this total, 8.39 million metric tons was due to electricity consumption. Over the same distance, comparable gasoline vehicles would have emitted between 29 and 41 million metric tons of GHG, leading to a reduction of 15 to 27 million metric tons. Relative to national-level assessments that do not factor in this regional difference, these electric vehicles resulted in 13% greater reductions in GHG emissions than previously calculated. In the future, announced goals to further decarbonize the electricity sector will continue to reduce the emissions of PEVs, including reducing emissions rates for vehicles already on the road, further improving the benefits relative to the unchanging emissions of contemporaneous gasoline vehicles.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2022

Shared Mobility Data Availability and Usage Trends

In this report, we summarize data availability of new shared mobility technologies by mobility type and region and analyze how shared mobility usage varies by time and by demographic factors in the United States. The shared mobility technologies include ridehailing from transportation network companies (TNC), bikeshare, and scooter share. There is a wide range in shared mobility usage per capita across the country, even within urban areas. We observe that there was steady growth of new shared mobility usage from 2015 to early 2020, before COVID-19 reduced overall ridership. An analysis focused on Chicago shows that despite the availability of good public transportation, high usage of new shared mobility modes is centered in high income communities, especially by households who own less vehicles. However, we find that TNC is used for first-mile and last-mile in lower income communities. Analysis on the bikeshare usage also shows that household income is shown to not be a statistically significant factor when accounting for other factors including employment density, population density, percentage of college graduates, and bike-lane proximity.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗