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Keller, J. L.

Publications and source records attributed to Keller, J. L..

13 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1986

The physical and empirical basis for a specific clear-air turbulence risk index

The fundamental emphasis of this research was to develop a technique which would be a significant improvement over those currently used for flight planning to avoid clear air turbulence (CAT). The technique should, ideally, be both quantitative in determining potential intensity and specific in locating regions of relatively high risk. Furthermore, it should not rely on specialized data but be functional using the currently available rawinsonde observation (raob) system. Encouraging results documented in an earlier investigation were considered compelling enough to warrant a closer look into the possibilities of a Specific Clear Air Turbulence Risk (SCATR) index approach to the clear air turbulence problem. Unlike that research, which considered sustained periods of flight in light to moderate clear air turbulence, this study focuses on several cases of documented severe CAT. Results of these case studies suggest that a SCATR index is not an unrealizable goal and that uses of such an index, event in its current prototype level of development, are also apparent.

Keller, J. L.↗
NASA NTRS1985

The physical and empirical basis for a specific clear-air turbulence risk index

An improved operational CAT detection and forecasting technique is developed and detailed. This technique is the specific clear air turbulence risk (SCATR) index. This index shows some promising results. The improvements seen using hand analyzed data, as a result of the more realistic representation of the vertical shear of the horizontal wind, are also realized in the data analysis used in the PROFS/CWP application. The SCATR index should improve as database enhancements such as profiler and VAS satellite data, which increase the resolution in space and time, are brought into even more sophisticated objective analysis schemes.

Keller, J. L.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Clear turbulence forecasting - Towards a union of art and science

The development of clear air turbulence (CAT) forecasting over the last several decades is reviewed in the context of empirical and theoretical research into the nature of nonconvective turbulence in the free atmosphere, particularly at jet stream levels. Various qualitative CAT forecasting techniques are examined, and prospects for an effective quantitative index to aid aviation meteorologists in jet stream level turbulence monitoring and forecasting are examined. Finally, the use of on-board sensors for short-term warning is discussed.

Keller, J. L.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Performance of a quantitative jet stream turbulence forecasting technique - The Specific CAT Risk (SCATR) index

The SCATR index is showing considerable promise as a tool for operational, nonconvective, high altitude turbulence forecasting. The results of nine case studies are summarized. Attention is then focused on one of these cases for which the data base is most complete. In light of these case studies, the strengths and weaknesses of the current formulation and suggested improvements are discussed. The SCATR index has applications both as a diagnostic tool and in operational forecasting.

Keller, J. L.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Development of an operational specific CAT risk (SCATR) index

The original formulations of Roach (1970) and Oard (1974) for the calculation of clear air turbulence (CAT) potential from synoptic scale data were extended. An index which gives a measure of the specific risk of encountering CAT - the specific clear air turbulence risk (SCATR) index - was defined. This index takes into account both the locally and advected contributions to the energy necessary for CAT. The advected contribution is associated with the role of atmospheric gravity waves. The SCATR index was calculated for a number of cases where documented encounters with CAT occurred. Of particular interest were those made for cases involving severe CAT. The results for the two severe CAT cases run were quite impressive and elicited considerable interest from operational aviation meteorologists.

Keller, J. L.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Mathematical modeling of ice accretion on airfoils

The progress toward development of a computer model suitable for predicting icing behavior on airfoils over a wide range of environmental conditions and airfoils shapes is reported. The LEWICE program was formulated to solve a set of equations which describe the physical processes which occur during accretion of ice on an airfoil, including heat transfer in a time dependent mode, with the restriction that the flow must be describable by a two-dimensional flow code. Input data comprises the cloud liquid water content, mean droplet diameter, ambient air temperature, air velocity, and relative humidity. A potential flowfield around the airfoil is calculated, along with the droplet trajectories within the flowfield, followed by local values of water droplet collection efficiency at the impact points. Both glaze and rime ice conditions are reproduced, and comparisons with test results on icing of circular cylinders showed good agreement with the physical situation.

Macarthur, C. D.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Prediction and monitoring of clear-air turbulence - An evaluation of the applicability of the rawinsonde system

The importance of sensing turbulent layers in the free atmosphere to further progress in the area of clear air turbulence (CAT) prediction is stressed. The results of an investigation of the applicability of rawinsonde (RW) profiles for the detection of CAT are discussed. It is noted that previous studies have determined that the most significant factor for the existence of turbulent layers is the magnitude of the vertical shear. Certain shear-layer criteria, which are obtained from theoretically consistent statistics of detailed vertical wind profiles, are applied to statistical comparisons of conjunctive rawinsonde and Jimsphere/Jimsonde (J/J) vertical profiles made between 1 and 15 km. It is found that a loose relationship exists between J/J and RW shears. That is, the cross-correlation coefficient that compares their respective shears at the same levels is quite small. This is seen as suggesting that no general statement can be made in consideration of critical shear criteria with respect to RW shears. The suggestion is made that reasons for such a loose empirical relationship include the mesoscale nature of the apparent CAT mechanism.

Keller, J. L.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Case studies of clear air turbulence using the diagnostic Richardson Number Tendency formulation

The results of four case studies of clear air turbulence (CAT) using the diagnostic Richardson number tendency (DRT) formulation are highlighted. The performance of this technique in resolving regions of documented CAT encounters is encouraging. Its operational adaptability appears particularly attractive in that input data can be supplied by the currently operational rawinsonde system. Two CAT indices are calculated deterministically, sensing synoptic scale changes in static stability and vertical wind shear conductive for supporting mesoscale CAT layers. These two indices reveal volumes of the troposphere which act as source regions for patches of CAT. The first, the time to reach the critical Richardson number necessary for the initiation of turbulent conditions, was first used by Oard (1974). A second index is devised which is an adaptation of Roach's (1970) work relating synoptic scale and mesoscale energetical coupling and gives more information on the relative intensity of these source regions. The output from the DRT computer module highlights specific regions of the atmosphere which can be interpreted operationally in terms of a CAT encounter probability.

Keller, J. L.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Forecasting of Clear Air Turbulence using a Diagnostic Richardson Number Tendency formulation

The results of several case studies of Clear Air Turbulence (CAT) using the Diagnostic Richardson Number Tendency (DRT) formulation are highlighted. The performance of this technique in resolving regions of documented CAT encounters is encouraging. Its operational adaptability seems particularly attractive in that the input data can be supplied by the currently operational Rawinsonde system. A CAT index is calculated deterministically, sensing synoptic-scale changes in static stability and vertical wind shear conducive for supporting meso-scale CAT layers. This index reveals volumes of the troposphere which act as 'source regions' of Kelvin-Helmholtz instabilities. The results suggest that these regions are particularly efficient with respect to the synoptic/meso-scale energetical coupling necessary for supporting significantly turbulent layers. The output highlights specific regions of the atmosphere which can be interpreted operationally in terms of CAT-encounter probabilities.

Keller, J. L.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Clear air turbulence forecasting techniques

A method to improve clear air turbulence (CAT) forecasting by more effectively using the currently operational rawinsonde (RW) system is discussed. The method is called the Diagnostic Richardson Number Tendency (DRT) technique. The technique does not attempt to use the RW as a direct detector of the turbulent motion or even of the CAT mechanism structure but rather senses the synoptic scale centers of action which provide the energy to the CAT mechanism at the mesoscale level. The DRT algorithm is deterministic rather than statistical in nature, using the hydrodynamic equations (equations of motion) relevant to the synoptic scale. However, interpretation, by necessity, is probabilistic. What is most important with respect to its operational implementation is that this method uses the same input data as currently used by the operational National Meteorological Center prognostic models.

Keller, J. L.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Prediction and monitoring of clear air turbulence: An evaluation of the applicability of the rawinsonde system

The applicability of rawinsonde data for either detection or prediction of clear air turbulence is discussed. The mechanism currently believed responsible for the development of CAT is reviewed. Since previous studies determined that the most significant factor for the existence of turbulent layers is the magnitude of the vertical shear, certain theoretically derived shear criteria was applied to statistical and diagnostic comparisons of rawinsonde and Jimsphere/Jimsonde conjunctive vertical profiles. It is determined that the Rawinsonde system cannot reliably be used as a CAT detector in a single-station sense.

Keller, J. L.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Atmospheric variations - Vacillations and index cycles

Zonal indices, momentum flux, and mean and perturbation kinetic energies of the Southern Hemisphere upper troposphere, derived from the EOLE constant density balloon data set, are found to possess strong 18-23 day variations which are statistically significant to a posteriori levels. Cross-spectra and phase relationships suggest that the variation appears as a barotropic interaction between the middle latitude mean westerlies and ultra large-scale perturbations. Long-period and high-amplitude variations in energy conversion between eddy and mean kinetic energies are found which average out in the long term mean to be very small and positive, consistent with previously measured average hemispheric energetics. Furthermore, the variation is shown to possess an ultra-long wave preference. Examination of two independent data sources, time series of total ozone and stratospheric thickness data from the Selective Chopper Radiometer, suggests that the periodicity is a property of general hemispheric motion rather than just a property of the EOLE data set.

Webster, P. J.↗