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Ke, Ruian

Publications and source records attributed to Ke, Ruian.

At least 37 records · Page 2

Excess deaths reveal the true spatial, temporal and demographic impact of COVID-19 on mortality in Ecuador

Accepted Background In early 2020, Ecuador reported one of the highest surges of per capita deaths across the globe. Methods We collected a comprehensive dataset containing individual death records between 2015 and 2020, from the Ecuadorian National Institute of Statistics and Census and the Ecuadorian Ministry of Government. We computed the number of excess deaths across time, geographical locations and demographic groups using Poisson regression methods. Results Between 1 January and 23 September 2020, the number of excess deaths in Ecuador was 36 402 [95% confidence interval (CI): 35 762–36 827] or 208 per 100 000 people, which is 171% of the expected deaths in that period in a typical year. Only 20% of the excess deaths are attributable to confirmed COVID-19 deaths. Strikingly, in provinces that were most affected by COVID-19 such as Guayas and Santa Elena, the all-cause deaths are more than double the expected number of deaths that would have occurred in a normal year. The extent of excess deaths in men is higher than in women, and the number of excess deaths increases with age. Indigenous populations had the highest level of excess deaths among all ethnic groups. Conclusions Overall, the exceptionally high level of excess deaths in Ecuador highlights the enormous burden and heterogeneous impact of COVID-19 on mortality, especially in older age groups and Indigenous populations in Ecuador, which was not fully revealed by COVID-19 death counts. Together with the limited testing in Ecuador, our results suggest that the majority of the excess deaths were likely to be undocumented COVID-19 deaths.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Cross-scale dynamics and the evolutionary emergence of infectious diseases

When emerging pathogens encounter new host species for which they are poorly adapted, they must evolve to escape extinction. Pathogens experience selection on traits at multiple scales, including replication rates within host individuals and transmissibility between hosts. We analyze a stochastic model linking pathogen growth and competition within individuals to transmission between individuals. Our analysis reveals a new factor, the cross-scale reproductive number of a mutant virion, that quantifies how quickly mutant strains increase in frequency when they initially appear in the infected host population. This cross-scale reproductive number combines with viral mutation rates, single-strain reproductive numbers, and transmission bottleneck width to determine the likelihood of evolutionary emergence, and whether evolution occurs swiftly or gradually within chains of transmission. We find that wider transmission bottlenecks facilitate emergence of pathogens with short-term infections, but hinder emergence of pathogens exhibiting cross-scale selective conflict and long-term infections. Furthermore, our results provide a framework to advance the integration of laboratory, clinical, and field data in the context of evolutionary theory, laying the foundation for a new generation of evidence-based risk assessment of emergence threats.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

CD8 Lymphocyte Depletion Enhances the Latency Reversal Activity of the SMAC Mimetic AZD5582 in ART-Suppressed Simian Immunodeficiency Virus-Infected Rhesus Macaques

ABSTRACT Inducing latency reversal to reveal infected cells to the host immune system represents a potential strategy to cure human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. In separate studies, we have shown previously that CD8 + T cells may contribute to the maintenance of viral latency and have identified a novel SMAC (second mitochondrial activator of caspases) mimetic/IAP (inhibitor of apoptosis protein) inhibitor (AZD5582) capable of reversing HIV/simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) latency in vivo by activating the noncanonical (nc) NF-κB pathway. Here, we use AZD5582 in combination with antibody (Ab)-mediated depletion of CD8α + cells to further evaluate the role of CD8 + T cells in the maintenance of viral latency. Six rhesus macaques (RMs) were infected with SIV mac239 and treated with antiretroviral therapy (ART) starting at week 8 postinfection. After 84 to 85 weeks of ART, all animals received a single dose of the anti-CD8α depleting Ab MT807R1 (50 mg/kg of body weight, administered subcutaneously [s.c.]), followed by five weekly doses of AZD5582 (0.1 mg/kg, administered intravenously [i.v.]). Following combined treatment with CD8α depletion and AZD5582, 100% of RMs experienced on-ART viremia levels above 60 copies per ml of plasma. In comparator groups of SIV-infected, ART-suppressed RMs treated with AZD5582 only or CD8α depletion only, on-ART viremia was experienced by 56% and 57% of the animals, respectively. Furthermore, the increased frequency of viremic episodes during the treatment period was greater in the group treated with CD8α depletion plus AZD5582 than in the other groups. Mathematical modeling of virus reactivation suggested that in addition to viral dynamics during acute infection, CD8α depletion influenced the response to AZD5582. This work suggests that the latency reversal induced by activation of the ncNF-κB signaling pathway with AZD5582 can be enhanced by CD8α + cell depletion. IMPORTANCE A favored approach to curing HIV infection aims at inducing viral expression using latency-reversing agents (LRAs) to allow the elimination of infected cells. Here, we tested a combination of two recently identified LRAs, the SMAC mimetic/IAP inhibitor AZD5582, which activates the noncanonical NF-κB pathway, and the antibody (Ab) MT807R1, which depletes CD8α + cells, in SIV-infected rhesus macaques (RMs) on ART. Latency reversal, as defined by increased on-ART viremia, was observed in all six SIV-infected, ART-treated RMs that received this combined treatment. Furthermore, comparison of viral reactivation between these animals and groups of SIV-infected, ART-treated RMs treated with AZD5582 only or CD8α + cell depletion only showed more frequent increases in viremic episodes when the two treatments were combined. This study provides additional evidence that CD8 + T cells may contribute to the maintenance of HIV/SIV latency on ART and potentially inhibit latency reversal during HIV cure approaches.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A quantitative model used to compare within-host SARS-CoV-2, MERS-CoV, and SARS-CoV dynamics provides insights into the pathogenesis and treatment of SARS-CoV-2

The scientific community is focused on developing antiviral therapies to mitigate the impacts of the ongoing novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak. This will be facilitated by improved understanding of viral dynamics within infected hosts. Here, using a mathematical model in combination with published viral load data, we compare within-host viral dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 with analogous dynamics of MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV. Our quantitative analyses using a mathematical model revealed that the within-host reproduction number at symptom onset of SARS-CoV-2 was statistically significantly larger than that of MERS-CoV and similar to that of SARS-CoV. In addition, the time from symptom onset to the viral load peak for SARS-CoV-2 infection was shorter than those of MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV. These findings suggest the difficulty of controlling SARS-CoV-2 infection by antivirals. We further used the viral dynamics model to predict the efficacy of potential antiviral drugs that have different modes of action. The efficacy was measured by the reduction in the viral load area under the curve (AUC). Our results indicate that therapies that block de novo infection or virus production are likely to be effective if and only if initiated before the viral load peak (which appears 2–3 days after symptom onset), but therapies that promote cytotoxicity of infected cells are likely to have effects with less sensitivity to the timing of treatment initiation. Furthermore, combining a therapy that promotes cytotoxicity and one that blocks de novo infection or virus production synergistically reduces the AUC with early treatment. Our unique modeling approach provides insights into the pathogenesis of SARS-CoV-2 and may be useful for development of antiviral therapies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Autocrine and paracrine interferon signalling as ‘ring vaccination’ and ‘contact tracing’ strategies to suppress virus infection in a host

The innate immune response, particularly the interferon response, represents a first line of defence against viral infections. The interferon molecules produced from infected cells act through autocrine and paracrine signalling to turn host cells into an antiviral state. Although the molecular mechanisms of IFN signalling have been well characterized, how the interferon response collectively contribute to the regulation of host cells to stop or suppress viral infection during early infection remain unclear. Here, we use mathematical models to delineate the roles of the autocrine and the paracrine signalling, and show that their impacts on viral spread are dependent on how infection proceeds. In particular, we found that when infection is well-mixed, the paracrine signalling is not as effective; by contrast, when infection spreads in a spatial manner, a likely scenario during initial infection in tissue, the paracrine signalling can impede the spread of infection by decreasing the number of susceptible cells close to the site of infection. Furthermore, we argue that the interferon response can be seen as a parallel to population-level epidemic prevention strategies such as ‘contact tracing’ or ‘ring vaccination’. Thus, our results here may have implications for the outbreak control at the population scale more broadly.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Single cell heterogeneity in influenza A virus gene expression shapes the innate antiviral response to infection

Viral infection outcomes are governed by the complex and dynamic interplay between the infecting virus population and the host response. It is increasingly clear that both viral and host cell populations are highly heterogeneous, but little is known about how this heterogeneity influences infection dynamics or viral pathogenicity. To dissect the interactions between influenza A virus (IAV) and host cell heterogeneity, we examined the combined host and viral transcriptomes of thousands of individual cells, each infected with a single IAV virion. We observed complex patterns of viral gene expression and the existence of multiple distinct host transcriptional responses to infection at the single cell level. We show that human H1N1 and H3N2 strains differ significantly in patterns of both viral and host anti-viral gene transcriptional heterogeneity at the single cell level. Our analyses also reveal that semi-infectious particles that fail to express the viral NS can play a dominant role in triggering the innate anti-viral response to infection. Altogether, these data reveal how patterns of viral population heterogeneity can serve as a major determinant of antiviral gene activation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is the causative agent of the ongoing coronavirus disease pandemic. Initial estimates of the early dynamics of the outbreak in Wuhan, China, suggested a doubling time of the number of infected persons of 6–7 days and a basic reproductive number (R 0 ) of 2.2–2.7. We collected extensive individual case reports across China and estimated key epidemiologic parameters, including the incubation period (4.2 days). We then designed 2 mathematical modeling approaches to infer the outbreak dynamics in Wuhan by using high-resolution domestic travel and infection data. Results show that the doubling time early in the epidemic in Wuhan was 2.3–3.3 days. Assuming a serial interval of 6–9 days, we calculated a median R0 value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8–8.9). Here, we further show that active surveillance, contact tracing, quarantine, and early strong social distancing efforts are needed to stop transmission of the virus.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Mechanistic modelling of SARS-CoV-2 and other infectious diseases and the effects of therapeutics

Modern viral kinetic modeling and its application to therapeutics is a field that attracted the attention of the medical, pharmaceutical and modeling communities during the early days of the AIDS epidemic. Its successes lead to applications of modeling methods not only to HIV but a plethora of other viruses, such as hepatitis C virus (HCV), hepatitis B virus (HBV) and cytomegalovirus (CMV), which along with HIV cause chronic diseases, and viruses such as influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), West Nile virus (WNV), Zika virus, and SAR-CoV-2, which generally cause acute infections. Here we first review the historical development of mathematical models to understand HIV and HCV infections and the effects of treatment by fitting the models to clinical data. Furthermore, we then focus on recent efforts and contributions of applying these models towards understanding SARS-CoV-2 infection and highlight outstanding questions where modeling can provide crucial insights and help to optimize non-pharmaceutical and pharmaceutical interventions of the COVID-19 pandemic. The review is written from our personal perspective emphasizing the power of simple target cell limited models that provided important insights and then their evolution into more complex models that captured more of the virology and immunology. To quote Albert Einstein “Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler”, and this idea underlies the modeling we describe below.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Principles of robust innate immune response to viral infections: a multiplex network analysis

The human innate immune response, particularly the type-I interferon (IFN) response, is highly robust and effective first line of defense against virus invasion. IFN molecules are produced and secreted frominfected cells upon virus infection and recognition. They then act as signaling/communicationmolecules to activate an antiviral response in neighboring cells so that those cells become refractory to infection. Previous experimental studies have identified the detailed molecular mechanisms for the IFN signaling and response. However, the principles underlying how host cells use IFN to communicate with each other to collectively and robustly halt an infection is not understood. Here we take a multiplex network modeling approach to provide a theoretical framework to identify key factors that determine the effectiveness of the IFN response against virus infection of a host. In this approach, we consider the virus spread among host cells and the interferon signaling to protect host cells as a competition process on a two-layer multiplex network. We focused on two types of network topology, i.e., the Erdős-Rényi (ER) network and the Geometric Random (GR) network, which represent the scenarios when infection of cells is mostly well mixed (e.g., in the blood) and when infection is spatially segregated (e.g., in tissues), respectively.We show that in general, the IFN response works effectively to stop viral infection when virus infection spreads spatially (a most likely scenario for initial virus infection of a host at the peripheral tissue). Importantly, we show that the effectiveness of the IFN response is robust against large variations in the distance of IFN diffusion as long as IFNs diffuse faster than viruses and they can effectively induce antiviral responses in susceptible host cells. This suggests that the effectiveness of the IFN response is insensitive to the specific arrangement of host cells in peripheral tissues. Thus, our work provides a quantitative explanation of why the IFN response can serve an effective and robust response in different tissue types to a wide range of viral infections of a host.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Within-host infectious disease models accommodating cellular coinfection, with an application to influenza

Within-host models are useful tools for understanding the processes regulating viral load dynamics. While existing models have considered a wide range of within-host processes, at their core these models have shown remarkable structural similarity. Specifically, the structure of these models generally consider target cells to be either uninfected or infected, with the possibility of accommodating further resolution (e.g. cells that are in an eclipse phase). Recent findings, however, indicate that cellular coinfection is the norm rather than the exception for many viral infectious diseases, and that cells with high multiplicity of infection are present over at least some duration of an infection. The reality of these cellular coinfection dynamics is not accommodated in current within-host models although it may be critical for understanding within-host dynamics. This is particularly the case if multiplicity of infection impacts infected cell phenotypes such as their death rate and their viral production rates. Here, we present a new class of within-host disease models that allow for cellular coinfection in a scalable manner by retaining the low-dimensionality that is a desirable feature of many current within-host models. The models we propose adopt the general structure of epidemiological ‘macroparasite’ models that allow hosts to be variably infected by parasites such as nematodes and host phenotypes to flexibly depend on parasite burden. Specifically, our within-host models consider target cells as ‘hosts’ and viral particles as ‘macroparasites’, and allow viral output and infected cell lifespans, among other phenotypes, to depend on a cell’s multiplicity of infection. We show with an application to influenza that these models can be statistically fit to viral load and other within-host data, and demonstrate using model selection approaches that they have the ability to outperform traditional within-host viral dynamic models. Important in vivo quantities such as the mean multiplicity of cellular infection and time-evolving reassortant frequencies can also be quantified in a straightforward manner once these macroparasite models have been parameterized. The within-host model structure we develop here provides a mathematical way forward to address questions related to the roles of cellular coinfection, collective viral interactions, and viral complementation in within-host viral dynamics and evolution.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Causes and Consequences of Spatial Within-Host Viral Spread

The spread of viral pathogens both between and within hosts is inherently a spatial process. While the spatial aspects of viral spread at the epidemiological level have been increasingly well characterized, the spatial aspects of viral spread within infected hosts are still understudied. Here, with a focus on influenza A viruses (IAVs), we first review experimental studies that have shed light on the mechanisms and spatial dynamics of viral spread within hosts. These studies provide strong empirical evidence for highly localized IAV spread within hosts. Since mathematical and computational within-host models have been increasingly used to gain a quantitative understanding of observed viral dynamic patterns, we then review the (relatively few) computational modeling studies that have shed light on possible factors that structure the dynamics of spatial within-host IAV spread. These factors include the dispersal distance of virions, the localization of the immune response, and heterogeneity in host cell phenotypes across the respiratory tract. While informative, we find in these studies a striking absence of theoretical expectations of how spatial dynamics may impact the dynamics of viral populations. To mitigate this, we turn to the extensive ecological and evolutionary literature on range expansions to provide informed theoretical expectations. We find that factors such as the type of density dependence, the frequency of long-distance dispersal, specific life history characteristics, and the extent of spatial heterogeneity are critical factors affecting the speed of population spread and the genetic composition of spatially expanding populations. For each factor that we identified in the theoretical literature, we draw parallels to its analog in viral populations. We end by discussing current knowledge gaps related to the spatial component of within-host IAV spread and the potential for within-host spatial considerations to inform the development of disease control strategies.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Determinants of the efficacy of HIV latency-reversing agents and implications for drug and treatment design

HIV eradication studies have focused on developing latency-reversing agents (LRAs). However, it is not understood how the rate of latent reservoir reduction is affected by different steps in the process of latency reversal. Furthermore, as current LRAs are host-directed, LRA treatment is likely to be intermittent to avoid host toxicities. Few careful studies of the serial effects of pulsatile LRA treatment have yet been done. This lack of clarity makes it difficult to evaluate the efficacy of candidate LRAs or predict long-term treatment outcomes. Here, we constructed a mathematical model that describes the dynamics of latently infected cells under LRA treatment. Model analysis showed that, in addition to increasing the immune recognition and clearance of infected cells, the duration of HIV antigen expression (i.e., the period of vulnerability) plays an important role in determining the efficacy of LRAs, especially if effective clearance is achieved. Patients may benefit from pulsatile LRA exposures compared with continuous LRA exposures if the period of vulnerability is long and the clearance rate is high, both in the presence and absence of an LRA. Overall, the model framework serves as a useful tool to evaluate the efficacy and the rational design of LRAs and combination strategies.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Superinfection and cure of infected cells as mechanisms for hepatitis C virus adaptation and persistence

Significance Viral populations exhibit an extraordinary ability to survive abrupt changes in host environment by rapidly generating adaptive mutations. However, our understanding of how viral populations respond to selection pressure and the underlying molecular mechanisms supporting viral adaptation in vivo is limited. Here, we report a set of clinical data sampled from subjects chronically infected by hepatitis C virus (HCV). The data show rapid expansion and turnover of drug-resistant viruses following treatment with an HCV protease inhibitor. By fitting mathematical models to the data, we propose that superinfection and cure of infected cells play critical roles in facilitating the rapid expansion and turnover of viral populations. Our results highlight the importance of considering intracellular viral competition in understanding rapid viral adaptation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NS5A inhibitors unmask differences in functional replicase complex half-life between different hepatitis C virus strains

We synthesized the Hepatitis C virus (HCV) RNA by the replicase complex (RC), a macromolecular assembly composed of viral non-structural proteins and cellular co-factors. Inhibitors of the HCV NS5A protein block formation of new RCs but do not affect RNA synthesis by preformed RCs. Without new RC formation, existing RCs turn over and are eventually lost from the cell. We aimed to use NS5A inhibitors to estimate the half-life of the functional RC of HCV. We compared different cell culture-infectious strains of HCV that may be grouped based on their sensitivity to lipid peroxidation: robustly replicating, lipid peroxidation resistant (LPO R ) viruses (e.g. JFH-1 or H77D) and more slowly replicating, lipid peroxidation sensitive (LPO S ) viruses (e.g. H77S.3 and N.2). Furthermore, in luciferase assays, LPO S HCV strains declined under NS5A inhibitor therapy with much slower kinetics compared to LPO R HCV strains. This difference in rate of decline was not observed for inhibitors of the NS5B RNAdependent RNA polymerase suggesting that the difference was not simply a consequence of differences in RNA stability. In further analyses, we compared two isoclonal HCV variants: the LPO S H77S.3 and the LPO R H77D that differ only by 12 amino acids. Differences in rate of decline between H77S.3 and H77D following NS5A inhibitor addition were not due to amino acid sequences in NS5A but rather due to a combination of amino acid differences in the non-structural proteins that make up the HCV RC. The mathematical modeling of intracellular HCV RNA dynamics suggested that differences in RC stability (half-lives of 3.5 and 9.9 hours, for H77D and H77S.3, respectively) are responsible for the different kinetics of antiviral suppression between LPO S and LPO R viruses. In nascent RNA capture assays, the rate of RNA synthesis decline following NS5A inhibitor addition was significantly faster for H77D compared to H77S.3 indicating different half-lives of functional RCs.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Efficacy and safety of 3-week response-guided triple direct-acting antiviral therapy for chronic hepatitis C infection: a phase 2, open-label, proof-of-concept study

In order to shorten the course of direct-acting antiviral agents for chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, we examined the antiviral efficacy and safety of 3 weeks of response-guided therapy with an NS3 protease inhibitor and dual NS5A inhibitor–NS5B nucleotide analogue. In this open-label, phase 2a, single centre study, Chinese patients with chronic HCV genotype 1b infection without cirrhosis were randomly allocated by a computer program to one of three treatment groups (sofosbuvir, ledipasvir, and asunaprevir; sofosbuvir, daclatasvir, and simeprevir; or sofosbuvir, daclatasvir, and asunaprevir) until six patients in each group (1:1:1) achieved an ultrarapid virological response (plasma HCV RNA <500 IU/mL by day 2, measured by COBAS TaqMan HCV test, version 2.0). Patients with an ultrarapid virological response received 3 weeks of therapy. Patients who did not achieve an ultrarapid response were switched to sofosbuvir and ledipasvir for either 8 weeks or 12 weeks. Furthermore, the primary endpoint was the proportion of patients with a sustained virological response at 12 weeks (SVR12) after treatment completion, analysed in the intention-to-treat population. All patients who achieved an ultrarapid virological response were included in the safety analysis. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02470858. Between April 5, 2015, and April 15, 2015, 26 eligible patients were recruited. 12 patients were assigned to sofosbuvir, ledipasvir, and asunaprevir; six to sofosbuvir, daclatasvir, and simeprevir; and eight to sofosbuvir, daclatasvir, and asunaprevir. Six patients in each group achieved an ultrarapid virological response (18 [69%]). All patients with an ultrarapid virological response who were given 3 weeks of triple therapy achieved SVR12. The most common adverse events were fatigue (one [17%] of six patients receiving sofosbuvir, ledipasvir, and asunaprevir; one [17%] of six patients receiving sofosbuvir, daclatasvir, and simeprevir; and two [33%] of six patients receiving sofosbuvir, daclatasvir, and asunaprevir) and headache (one [17%] patient in each group). There were no patients who experienced any serious adverse events. In this proof-of-concept study, all patients with chronic HCV without cirrhosis who achieved an ultrarapid virological response on triple direct-acting antiviral regimens by day 2 and received 3 weeks of treatment were cured, with excellent tolerability. By shortening the duration of therapy from the currently recommended 12 weeks to 3 weeks, we could drastically reduce the cost of therapy and the rate of adverse events. Further large-scale studies should be done to confirm our findings.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Viral dynamic modelling of Hepatitis C and resistance-associated variants in haemophiliacs

Aim- We present that chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is an important source of morbidity and mortality among haemophiliacs. Limited data are available regarding treatment intervention using direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) and theoretical concerns regarding accumulation of drug-associated resistance variants (RAVs) remain. We conducted a pilot study of treatment with telaprevir/pegylated interferon-alfa/ribavirin to evaluate treatment response and the role of lead-in DAA therapy on mutational selection of resistance variants. Methods- Ultra-deep sequence analysis was performed at baseline, 48 hours and 168 hours after treatment initiation. Results- No dominant RAVs were identified at baseline, but low-level RAVs were noted at baseline in all subjects. Viral dynamic models were used to assess treatment responses. The efficacy parameter (ε) for lead-in ranged from 0 to 0.9745 (mean = 0.514). Subsequent addition of telaprevir resulted in a mean efficacy of more than 0.999. This was comparable to subjects who started all three medications simultaneously. A total of 80% achieved SVR. While rapid shifts in the RAV population following DAA initiation were observed, treatment failure associated with A156V was observed in only one patient. Adverse event profiles were similar to that observed in non-haemophilia cohorts. There was no evidence of factor inhibitor formation. There was no evidence that lead-in provided benefit in terms of response efficacy. Conclusion- Finally, these data support DAA-based therapy in those with inherited bleeding disorders.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗