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Kaplan, M. L.

Publications and source records attributed to Kaplan, M. L..

23 records · Page 2

A multiscale numerical study into the cascade of kinetic energy leading to severe local storms

The cascade of kinetic energy from macro- through mesoscales is studied on the basis of a nested grid system used to solve a set of nonlinear differential equations. The kinetic energy cascade and the concentration of vorticity through the hydrodynamic spectrum provide a means for predicting the location and intensity of severe weather from large-scale data sets. A mechanism described by the surface pressure tendency equation proves to be important in explaining how initial middle-tropospheric mass-momentum imbalances alter the low-level pressure field.

Paine, D. A.

The multiple nesting of mesoscale, submesoscale, and nonhydrostatic microscale numerical models for a case of mesocyclogenesis and severe storm development

A fundamental approach involving the integration of two different numerical models over several different spatial mesh lengths is considered. Model I is a hydrostatic, incompressible, and adiabatic primitive (Newtonian) equation set with no boundary layer forcing, i.e., surface heat or moisture flux or external frictional stresses. Typically this model is initialized from conventional radiosonde data and run for a 12-15 hour forecast period over a 40 km horizontal mesh. If phase I of the tornado developmental processes develops, the data is 'frozen' in space and time, interpolated to a 20 km mesh, and integrated for a shorter time period (3 hours) with a shorter time step. Model II is a nonhydrostatic compressible 18-level complement of model I. If model II indicates the development of the intensification of phase V dynamical processes, the data is frozen and interpolated to finer mesh lengths until the tornadic circulation system is approximated

Kaplan, M. L.

A real-time subsynoptic, meso, and microscale severe storm forecast system

A system of differential equations is integrated numerically in space and time over several different matrices in an effort to simulate the atmospheric wave structures which organize severe local storms. Preliminary results with case studies indicate that dynamical fields produced by the numerical simulations can be translated into very fine scale space and time zones where severe storm forecast indices can be developed. These fine scale indices are now available in real-time when run on Langley's STAR 100 computer system.

Kaplan, M. L.

An equivalent potential vorticity theory applied to the analysis and prediction of severe storm dynamics

Potential vorticity theory is developed in a description of an equivalent potential temperature topography, and a new theory suited to the description of scale interaction is elaborated. Macroscale triggering of ageostrophic flow fields at the mesoscale, in turn leading to release of convective instability along narrow zones at the microscale, is examined. Correlation of appreciable decrease in potential vorticity with such phenomena as cumulonimbi, tornados, and duststorms is examined. The relevance of a multiscale energy-momentum cascade in numerical prediction of severe mesoscale and microscale phenomena from radiosonde data is reviewed. Hypotheses for mesoscale dynamics are constructed.

Paine, D. A.

The numerical prediction of tornadic windstorms

Rather than treating localized severe weather events as being purely statistical in nature, a mathematical framework was developed based on the concept of a deterministic cascade of energy-momentum which bridges the gap between the longest and shortest of atmospheric wave phenomena. This cascade relieves macroscale wavelengths ( 1000 km) of mass-momentum imbalances by exciting convective phenomena ( 10 km) through a sophisticated transfer process involving intermediate, mesoscale wavelengths.

Paine, D. A.