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Kafatos, M.

Publications and source records attributed to Kafatos, M..

At least 19 records

Space-borne Observations of Atmospheric Pre-Earthquake Signals in Seismically Active Areas: Case Study for Greece 2008-2009

We are conducting theoretical studies and practical validation of atm osphere/ionosphere phenomena preceding major earthquakes. Our approach is based on monitoring of two physical parameters from space: outgoi ng long-wavelength radiation (OLR) on the top of the atmosphere and e lectron and electron density variations in the ionosphere via GPS Tot al Electron Content (GPS/TEC). We retrospectively analyzed the temporal and spatial variations of OLR an GPS/TEC parameters characterizing the state of the atmosphere and ionosphere several days before four m ajor earthquakes (M>6) in Greece for 2008-2009: M6.9 of 02.12.08, M6. 2 02.20.08; M6.4 of 06.08.08 and M6.4 of 07.01.09.We found anomalous behavior before all of these events (over land and sea) over regions o f maximum stress. We expect that our analysis reveal the underlying p hysics of pre-earthquake signals associated with some of the largest earthquakes in Greece.

Ouzounov, D. P.

Multi-Sensor Observations of Earthquake Related Atmospheric Signals over Major Geohazard Validation Sites

We are conducting a scientific validation study involving multi-sensor observations in our investigation of phenomena preceding major earthquakes. Our approach is based on a systematic analysis of several atmospheric and environmental parameters, which we found, are associated with the earthquakes, namely: thermal infrared radiation, outgoing long-wavelength radiation, ionospheric electron density, and atmospheric temperature and humidity. For first time we applied this approach to selected GEOSS sites prone to earthquakes or volcanoes. This provides a new opportunity to cross validate our results with the dense networks of in-situ and space measurements. We investigated two different seismic aspects, first the sites with recent large earthquakes, viz.- Tohoku-oki (M9, 2011, Japan) and Emilia region (M5.9, 2012,N. Italy). Our retrospective analysis of satellite data has shown the presence of anomalies in the atmosphere. Second, we did a retrospective analysis to check the re-occurrence of similar anomalous behavior in atmosphere/ionosphere over three regions with distinct geological settings and high seismicity: Taiwan, Japan and Kamchatka, which include 40 major earthquakes (M>5.9) for the period of 2005-2009. We found anomalous behavior before all of these events with no false negatives; false positives were less then 10%. Our initial results suggest that multi-instrument space-borne and ground observations show a systematic appearance of atmospheric anomalies near the epicentral area that could be explained by a coupling between the observed physical parameters and earthquake preparation processes.

Ouzounov, D.

Inter-Disciplinary Validation of Pre Earthquake Signals. Case Study for Major Earthquakes in Asia (2004-2010) and for 2011 Tohoku Earthquake

We carried out multi-sensors observations in our investigation of phenomena preceding major earthquakes. Our approach is based on a systematic analysis of several physical and environmental parameters, which we found, associated with the earthquake processes: thermal infrared radiation, temperature and concentration of electrons in the ionosphere, radon/ion activities, and air temperature/humidity in the atmosphere. We used satellite and ground observations and interpreted them with the Lithosphere-Atmosphere- Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) model, one of possible paradigms we study and support. We made two independent continues hind-cast investigations in Taiwan and Japan for total of 102 earthquakes (M>6) occurring from 2004-2011. We analyzed: (1) ionospheric electromagnetic radiation, plasma and energetic electron measurements from DEMETER (2) emitted long-wavelength radiation (OLR) from NOAA/AVHRR and NASA/EOS; (3) radon/ion variations (in situ data); and 4) GPS Total Electron Content (TEC) measurements collected from space and ground based observations. This joint analysis of ground and satellite data has shown that one to six (or more) days prior to the largest earthquakes there were anomalies in all of the analyzed physical observations. For the latest March 11 , 2011 Tohoku earthquake, our analysis shows again the same relationship between several independent observations characterizing the lithosphere /atmosphere coupling. On March 7th we found a rapid increase of emitted infrared radiation observed from satellite data and subsequently an anomaly developed near the epicenter. The GPS/TEC data indicated an increase and variation in electron density reaching a maximum value on March 8. Beginning from this day we confirmed an abnormal TEC variation over the epicenter in the lower ionosphere. These findings revealed the existence of atmospheric and ionospheric phenomena occurring prior to the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, which indicated new evidence of a distinct coupling between the lithosphere and atmosphere/ionosphere.

Ouzounov, D.

From Multi-Sensors Observations Towards Cross-Disciplinary Study of Pre-Earthquake Signals. What have We Learned from the Tohoku Earthquake?

The lessons we have learned from the Great Tohoku EQ (Japan, 2011) how this knowledge will affect our future observation and analysis is the main focus of this presentation.We present multi-sensors observations and multidisciplinary research in our investigation of phenomena preceding major earthquakes. These observations revealed the existence of atmospheric and ionospheric phenomena occurring prior to theM9.0 Tohoku earthquake of March 11, 2011, which indicates s new evidence of a distinct coupling between the lithosphere and atmosphere/ionosphere, as related to underlying tectonic activity. Similar results have been reported before the catastrophic events in Chile (M8.8, 2010), Italy (M6.3, 2009) and Sumatra (M9.3, 2004). For the Tohoku earthquake, our analysis shows a synergy between several independent observations characterizing the state of the lithosphere /atmosphere coupling several days before the onset of the earthquakes, namely: (i) Foreshock sequence change (rate, space and time); (ii) Outgoing Long wave Radiation (OLR) measured at the top of the atmosphere; and (iii) Anomalous variations of ionospheric parameters revealed by multi-sensors observations. We are presenting a cross-disciplinary analysis of the observed pre-earthquake anomalies and will discuss current research in the detection of these signals in Japan. We expect that our analysis will shed light on the underlying physics of pre-earthquake signals associated with some of the largest earthquake events

Ouzounov, D.

Validation of Atmosphere/Ionosphere Signals Associated with Major Earthquakes by Multi-Instrument Space-Borne and Ground Observations

The latest catastrophic earthquake in Japan (March 2011) has renewed interest in the important question of the existence of pre-earthquake anomalous signals related to strong earthquakes. Recent studies have shown that there were precursory atmospheric/ionospheric signals observed in space associated with major earthquakes. The critical question, still widely debated in the scientific community, is whether such ionospheric/atmospheric signals systematically precede large earthquakes. To address this problem we have started to investigate anomalous ionospheric / atmospheric signals occurring prior to large earthquakes. We are studying the Earth's atmospheric electromagnetic environment by developing a multisensor model for monitoring the signals related to active tectonic faulting and earthquake processes. The integrated satellite and terrestrial framework (ISTF) is our method for validation and is based on a joint analysis of several physical and environmental parameters (thermal infrared radiation, electron concentration in the ionosphere, lineament analysis, radon/ion activities, air temperature and seismicity) that were found to be associated with earthquakes. A physical link between these parameters and earthquake processes has been provided by the recent version of Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) model. Our experimental measurements have supported the new theoretical estimates of LAIC hypothesis for an increase in the surface latent heat flux, integrated variability of outgoing long wave radiation (OLR) and anomalous variations of the total electron content (TEC) registered over the epicenters. Some of the major earthquakes are accompanied by an intensification of gas migration to the surface, thermodynamic and hydrodynamic processes of transformation of latent heat into thermal energy and with vertical transport of charged aerosols in the lower atmosphere. These processes lead to the generation of external electric currents in specific regions of the atmosphere and the modifications, by dc electric fields, in the ionosphere-atmosphere electric circuit. We retrospectively analyzed temporal and spatial variations of four different physical parameters (gas/radon counting rate, lineaments change, long-wave radiation transitions and ionospheric electron density/plasma variations) characterizing the state of the lithosphere/atmosphere coupling several days before the onset of the earthquakes. Validation processes consist in two phases: A. Case studies for seven recent major earthquakes: Japan (M9.0, 2011), China (M7.9, 2008), Italy (M6.3, 2009), Samoa (M7, 2009), Haiti (M7.0, 2010) and, Chile (M8.8, 2010) and B. A continuous retrospective analysis was preformed over two different regions with high seismicity- Taiwan and Japan for 2003-2009. Satellite, ground surface, and troposphere data were obtained from Terra/ASTER, Aqua/AIRS, POES and ionospheric variations from DEMETER and COSMIC-I data. Radon and GPS/TEC were obtaining from monitoring sites in Taiwan, Japan and Italy and from global ionosphere maps (GIM) respectively. Our analysis of ground and satellite data during the occurrence of 7 global earthquakes has shown the presence of anomalies in the atmosphere. Our results for Tohoku M9.0 earthquake show that on March 7th, 2011 (4 days before the main shock and 1 day before the M7.2 foreshock of March 8, 2011) a rapid increase of emitted infrared radiation was observed by the satellite data and an anomaly was developed near the epicenter. The GPS/TEC data indicate an increase and variation in electron density reaching a maximum value on March 8. From March 3 to 11 a large increase in electron concentration was recorded at all four Japanese ground-based ionosondes, which returned to normal after the main earthquake. Similar approach for analyzing atmospheric and ionospheric parameters has been applied for China (M7.9, 2008), Italy (M6.3, 2009), Samoa (M7, 2009), Haiti (M7.0, 2010) and Chile (M8.8, 2010) eahquakes. Results have revealed the presence of related variations of these parameters implying their connection with the earthquake process. The second phase (B) of this validation included 102 major earthquakes (M>5.9) in Taiwan and Japan. We have found anomalous behavior before all of these events with no false negatives. False alarm ratio for false positives is less then 10% and has been calculated for the same month of the earthquake occurrence for the entire period of analysis (2003-2009). The commonalities for detecting atmospheric/ionospheric anomalies are: i.) Regularly appearance over regions of maximum stress (i.e., along plate boundaries); ii.) Anomaly existence over land and sea; and iii) association with M>5.9 earthquakes not deeper than 100km. Due to their long duration over the same region these anomalies are not consistent with a meteorological origin. Our initial results from the ISTF validation of multi-instrument space-borne and ground observations show a systematic appearance of atmospheric anomalies near the epicentral area, one to seven (average) days prior to the largest earthquakes, and suggest that it could be explained by a coupling process between the observed physical parameters and the pre-earthquake preparation processes.

Ouzounov, Dimitar

Multi-Parameter Observation and Detection of Pre-Earthquake Signals in Seismically Active Areas

The recent large earthquakes (M9.0 Tohoku, 03/2011; M7.0 Haiti, 01/2010; M6.7 L Aquila, 04/2008; and M7.9 Wenchuan 05/2008) have renewed interest in pre-anomalous seismic signals associated with them. Recent workshops (DEMETER 2006, 2011 and VESTO 2009 ) have shown that there were precursory atmospheric /ionospheric signals observed in space prior to these events. Our initial results indicate that no single pre-earthquake observation (seismic, magnetic field, electric field, thermal infrared [TIR], or GPS/TEC) can provide a consistent and successful global scale early warning. This is most likely due to complexity and chaotic nature of earthquakes and the limitation in existing ground (temporal/spatial) and global satellite observations. In this study we analyze preseismic temporal and spatial variations (gas/radon counting rate, atmospheric temperature and humidity change, long-wave radiation transitions and ionospheric electron density/plasma variations) which we propose occur before the onset of major earthquakes:. We propose an Integrated Space -- Terrestrial Framework (ISTF), as a different approach for revealing pre-earthquake phenomena in seismically active areas. ISTF is a sensor web of a coordinated observation infrastructure employing multiple sensors that are distributed on one or more platforms; data from satellite sensors (Terra, Aqua, POES, DEMETER and others) and ground observations, e.g., Global Positioning System, Total Electron Content (GPS/TEC). As a theoretical guide we use the Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) model to explain the generation of multiple earthquake precursors. Using our methodology, we evaluated retrospectively the signals preceding the most devastated earthquakes during 2005-2011. We observed a correlation between both atmospheric and ionospheric anomalies preceding most of these earthquakes. The second phase of our validation include systematic retrospective analysis for more than 100 major earthquakes (M>5.9) in Taiwan and Japan. We have found anomalous behavior before all of these events with no false negatives. Calculated false alarm ratio for the for the same month over the entire period of analysis (2003-2009) is less than 10% and was d as the earthquakes. The commonalities in detecting atmospheric/ionospheric anomalies show that they may exist over both land and sea in regions of maximum stress (i.e., along plate boundaries) Our results indicate that the ISTF model could provide a capability to observe pre-earthquake atmospheric/ionospheric signals by combining this information into a common framework.

Ouzounov, D.

Multi-Sensors Observations of Pre-Earthquake Signals. What We Learned from the Great Tohoku Earthquake?

The lessons learned from the Great Tohoku EQ (Japan, 2011) will affect our future observations and an analysis is the main focus of this presentation. Multi-sensors observations and multidisciplinary research is presented in our study of the phenomena preceding major earthquakes Our approach is based on a systematic analysis of several physical and environmental parameters, which been reported by others in connections with earthquake processes: thermal infrared radiation; temperature; concentration of electrons in the ionosphere; radon/ion activities; and atmospheric temperature/humidity [Ouzounov et al, 2011]. We used the Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) model, one of several possible paradigms [Pulinets and Ouzounov, 2011] to interpret our observations. We retrospectively analyzed the temporal and spatial variations of three different physical parameters characterizing the state of the atmosphere, ionosphere the ground surface several days before the March 11, 2011 M9 Tohoku earthquake Namely: (i) Outgoing Long wave Radiation (OLR) measured at the top of the atmosphere; (ii) Anomalous variations of ionospheric parameters revealed by multi-sensors observations; and (iii) The change in the foreshock sequence (rate, space and time); Our results show that on March 8th, 2011 a rapid increase of emitted infrared radiation was observed and an anomaly developed near the epicenter with largest value occurring on March 11 at 07.30 LT. The GPS/TEC data indicate an increase and variation in electron density reaching a maximum value on March 8. Starting from this day in the lower ionosphere there was also observed an abnormal TEC variation over the epicenter. From March 3 to 11 a large increase in electron concentration was recorded at all four Japanese ground-based ionosondes, which returned to normal after the main earthquake. We use the Japanese GPS network stations and method of Radio Tomography to study the spatiotemporal structure of ionospheric perturbations, and to distinguish ionospheric responses to processes of EQ preparation against the effects of other factors. The 2-D snapshots of the electron density over Japan showed abnormal increase over the maximum stress during the night, a few hours before the main shock. Our results from recording atmospheric and ionospheric conditions during the earthquake indicate the presence of anomalies in the atmosphere and ionospheres occurring consistently over regions of maximum stress near the epicenter. Due to their long duration (hours and days) and spatial appearance (only over the Sendai region) these results do not appear to be caused by meteorological or magnetic activity. They reveal the existence of atmospheric and ionospheric phenomena occurring prior to the earthquake, which indicates new evidence of a distinct coupling between the lithosphere and atmosphere/ionosphere. Similar results have been reported before the catastrophic events in Chile (M8.8, 2010), Italy (M6.3, 2009) and Sumatra (M9.3, 2004).

Ouzonounov, D.

Lateral Shock of the R Aquarii Jet

The R Aqr jet was observed with the VLA B-configuration at two epochs separated by approximately 13.2 yr. Comparison of the resulting 6 cm continuum images show that the radio jet has undergone a lateral counterclockwise rotation of approximately 6 deg-12 deg on the plane of the sky. The model of jet parcels on independent trajectories is difficult to reconcile with these observations and leads us to consider a path-oriented jet (i.e., younger parcels follow the same path as older parcels). Comparison of the most recent radio image with a nearly contemporaneous HST/FOC ultraviolet image at approximately 2330 Angstroms suggests that the ultraviolet emission lies along the leading side of the rotating radio jet. In conjunction with a proper motion analysis of the jet material that yields empirical space-velocity and resulting acceleration-magnitude relationships as a function of distance from the central source, we evaluate the observational results in terms of a schematic model in which the jet emission consists of plane-parallel isothermal shocks along the leading edge of rotation. In such a radiating shock, the ultraviolet-emitting region is consistent with the adiabatic region in the form of a high-temperature, low-density sheath that surrounds the cooled postshock radio-emitting region. Within the context of the schematic model, we obtain the temperatures, densities, and pressures within the preshock, adiabatic, and postshock regions as a function of distance from the central source; the physical parameters so derived compare favorably to previously published estimates. We obtain a total jet mass of 3.1 x 10(exp -5) solar mass and an age of approximately 115 yr. We evaluate the model in the context of its density-boundary condition, its applicability to an episodic or quasi-continuous jet, and angular momentum considerations.

Hollis, J. M.

Contemporaneous IUE, EUVE, and High-Energy Observations of 3C 273

We present the results of our 1994 January and 1995 January observations of the quasar 3C 273 obtained with the International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE) and the Extreme-Ultraviolet Explorer (EUVE). These observations were part of a large multiwavelength campaign to observe 3C 273 from radio through gamma-rays. Our 1995 January photometric observations with the EUVE Lexan/B Deep Survey (DS) instrument indicate strong evidence for variability, at a 99% confidence level, during the 12 day observing period. We have utilized ROSAT PSPC soft X-ray power-law models to correlate with EUVE count rates. Besides variations in the normalization level between both observations, our EUV count rates are consistent with a simple power-law model with spectral index alpha approx. 1.77 (F(sub upsilon) proportional to upsilon(sup -alpha) that can be extrapolated from the soft X-rays to the EUV range. The active galactic nucleus 3C 273 is an important blazar to study because in our picture it reveals the presence of both disk and relativistic beam spectral contributions.

Ramos, E.

Unified Models of AGN Accretion Disks and Blazars

Accretion disks around supermassive black holes are expected to be the power sources in all AGNS, including blazars. To date, though, little direct evidence for such disks exists in AGN observations. In blazars, the intense relativistic beaming would mask any underlying disk component. Here we present relevant work that our group at GMU is carrying out on unified aspects of disk accretion onto supermassive black holes and the possible coupling of thick disks to beams in the inner regions.

Kafatos, M.

The MRK 421 Multi-Wavelength Campaign: EUVE Observation

We present the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectrum and light curve of the BL Lacertae object Markarian 421, obtained with the Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer (EUVE). The EUVE observation was part of a large multiwavelength campaign covering radio to gamma-ray energies. Preliminary analysis of the EUV spectrum indicates a smooth continuum in the 75-115 A range with no evidence of absorption features. The light curve shows variability of up to factors of two on a time-scale of a few days.

Fruscione, Antonella

A far-ultraviolet atlas of symbiotic stars observed with IUE. 1. The SWP range

This atlas contains sample spectra from the far-ultraviolet observations of 32 symbiotic stars obtained with the International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE) satellite. In all, 394 low-resolution spectra from the short-wavelength primary (SWP) camera covering the range 1200-2000 A have been extracted from the IUE archive, calibrated, and measured. Absolute line fluxes and wavelengths for the prominent emission lines have been tabulated. Tables of both the general properties of these symbiotics and of features specific to the spectrum of each are included. The spectra shown are representative of the different classes of symbiotic stars that are currently in the IUE archive. These include known eclipsing systems and those that have been observed in outburst (as well as quiescence).

Meier, S. R.

Evidence signaling the start of enhanced counterjet flow in the symbiotic system R AquarII

The velocity struture of strong far-UV emission lines observed in the symbiotic variable R Aqr suggests the start of new jet activity which will probably culminate in the appearance of a series of intense nebular emission knots within a decade. This is indicated by a systematic redward wavelength drift of emission lines, which we have followed with the International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE) since the discovery of the brilliant northeast jet emission knots more than 10 years ago. The C IV wavelengths 1548, 1550 resonance lines, which previously showed a prominent blue asymmetric wing that extended to velocities in excess -200 km/s, exhibit red wing asymmetry that extends to speeds of approximately +200 km/s in late 1992. The C IV line profile structure is consistent with the model proposed by Solf (1993), who explains the appearance of the northeast jet knots in terms of a approximately 300-500 km/s collimated wind that collides with slower moving material expelled earlier in a nova outburst that occurred approximately 190 yr ago. Based upon these high-resolution UV spectra, similar emission structues should appear southwest of the central star when the counterwind (or stream) interacts with material in the southwest inner nebula. The apparent change in direction of flow could result from a precessing accretion disk that alters the projection angle of collimated flow from the disk poles. The direction of the collimated wind may be related to the binary orbit, because the velocity shifts associated with emission lines formed in the flow change direction on a timescale which is comparable to the binary period.

Michalitsianos, A. G.

Fe II fluorescence and anomalous C IV doublet intensities in symbiotic novae

The variation of absolute intensities of Bowen-excited Fe II emission in the symbiotic stars RR Tel, RX Pup, and AG Peg is examined. The C IV doublet intensity ratios in RR Tel were not anomalous between 1979 and 1989, and the ratio had typical values within the optically thin range. The intensity of individual Fe II Bowen-excited lines is correlated with the C IV 1548.2 A flux, suggesting the presence of a foreground Fe II region in which fluorescent-excited material responds to flux variations of C IV 1548.2 A. In RX Pup the combined fluxes of Fe II Bowen-pumped lines can account for an appreciable fraction of the flux deficit in the C IV 1548.2 A line when the C IV doublet ratio is less than the optically thick limit of unity. The Fe II Bowen lines in RX Pup exhibit a velocity range from 0 to 80 km/s, where several strong Fe II emission lines correspond to deep absorption structure in the C IV 1548.2 A line profile. In AG Peg and C IV 1548.2 A flux deficit cannot be explained by Fe II fluorescent absorption alone when the C IV doublet ratio anomaly is at an extreme.

Michalitsianos, A. G.

Gamma ray flares in AGN

The inner regions of accretion disks of supermassive black holes can become unstable when the existing temperatures are sufficiently high. This naturally occurs for two-temperature disks in the case of rapidly spinning (Kerr) black holes. Physical effects in the hot, inner regions are such that non-steady flows can result. Effects which would be relevant in producing variability in intense gamma-ray sources (MeV to GeV range), such as the recent discovery of strong gamma-ray emission in 3C 279, are discussed.

Kafatos, M.

Ultraviolet and optical spectroscopy of the R Aquarii symmetrical jet

The first ultraviolet spectrum of the southwest (SW) component of the symmetrical jet in the R Aquarii binary system has been obtained in the range 1200-2000 A with the IUE. These results are compared to more encompassing spectra of the central H II region taken at the same time and also similar spectra of the northeast (NE) jet component obtained six months earlier. Moreover, optical spectra of both the NE and SW jet components in the range 3400-9800 A were obtained within about 6 months and about 1 month, respectively, of the ultraviolet spectra. These highly complementary observations argue that excitation of the symmetrical jet may be due to shock excitation as the jet components overtake and impact the previously ionized material associated with the expanding inner nebulosity. The problems with this shock model as well as problems with competing photoionization models are discussed. It is suggested that the jet components were ejected less than 90 years ago.

Hollis, J. M.

Sanduleak's Star (LMC Anonymous) - Its similarity in the far-ultraviolet with the luminous object Eta Carinae and SN 1987A

Low-resolution IUE SWP spectra of the peculiar object LMC Anonymous (Sanduleak's Star) indicates strong evidence for CNO-processed nebula in the vicinity of the star. The far-UV spectrum of LMC Anonymous closely resembles that of the S Condensation of Eta Carinae. The similarity between LMC Anonymous and the S Condensation is apparent from the absolute intensity of the N V, semiforbidden N IV, and semiforbidden N III emission lines compared with the reduced strength of C IV or semiforbidden C III emission. IUE spectra of the S Condensation and SN 1987A may provide important clues concerning the nature of LMC Anonymous, which indicates departures from normal cosmic abundances of nitrogen relative to carbon that are extreme. This may suggest that carbon envelope burning and dredge-up occurred simultaneously during the helium-burning stage.

Michalitsianos, A. G.

The C IV doublet ratio intensity effect in symbiotic stars

High-resolution UV spectra in the 1200-2000 wavelength range of the symbiotic variable R Aqr and its nebular jet were obtained in July 1987 with the IUE. The line profile structure of the C IV 1548, 1550 doublet in the jet indicates multicomponent velocity structure from an optically thin emitting gas. The C IV doublet profiles in the compact H II region engulfing the Mira and hot companion binary also suggest multicomponent structure with radial velocities up to about -100 km/s. The value of the doublet intensity ratio in the R Aqr H II region has been observed in other similar symbiotic stars, such as RX Pup. It is suggested that the anomalous behavior of the C IV doublet intensities may be useful for studying the spatial structure and temporal nature of winds in symbiotic stars.

Michalitsianos, A. G.