Engineering topics

Jordanova, Vania K.

Publications and source records attributed to Jordanova, Vania K..

6 records

DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying the Role of EMIC Wave Scattering During the 27 February 2014 Storm by RAM–SCB Simulations

Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron (EMIC) wave scattering has been proved to be responsible for the fast loss of both radiation belt (RB) electrons and ring current (RC) protons. However, its role in the concurrent dropout of these two co–located populations remains to be quantified. In this work, we study the effect of EMIC wave scattering on both populations during the 27 February 2014 storm by employing the global physics–based RAM–SCB model. Throughout this storm event, MeV RB electrons and 100s keV RC protons experienced simultaneous dropout following the occurrence of intense EMIC waves. By implementing data–driven initial and boundary conditions, we perform simulations for both populations through the interplay with EMIC waves and compare them against Van Allen Probes observations. Notably, the results indicate that by including EMIC wave scattering loss, especially by the He–band EMIC waves, the model aligns closely with data for both populations. Additionally, we investigate the simulated pitch angle distributions (PADs) for both populations. Including EMIC wave scattering in our model predicts a 90° peaked PAD for electrons with stronger losses at lower pitch angles, while protons exhibit an isotropic PAD with enhanced losses at pitch angles above 40°. Furthermore, our model predicts considerable precipitation of both particle populations, predominantly confined to the afternoon to midnight sector (12 hr < MLT < 24 hr) during the storm's main phase, corresponding closely with the presence of EMIC waves.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Reduced‐Order Probabilistic Emulation of Physics‐Based Ring Current Models: Application to RAM‐SCB Particle Flux

Abstract In this work, we address the computational challenge of large‐scale physics‐based simulation models for the ring current. Reduced computational cost allows for significantly faster than real‐time forecasting, enhancing our ability to predict and respond to dynamic changes in the ring current, valuable for space weather monitoring and mitigation efforts. Additionally, it can also be used for a comprehensive investigation of the system. Thus, we aim to create an emulator for the Ring current‐Atmosphere interactions Model with Self‐Consistent magnetic field (RAM‐SCB) particle flux that not only improves efficiency but also facilitates forecasting with reliable estimates of prediction uncertainties. The probabilistic emulator is built upon the methodology developed by Licata and Mehta (2023), https://doi.org/10.1029/2022sw003345 . A novel discrete sampling is used to identify 30 simulation periods over 20 years of solar and geomagnetic activity. Focusing on a subset of particle flux, we use Principal Component Analysis for dimensionality reduction and Long Short‐Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks to perform dynamic modeling. Hyperparameter space was explored extensively resulting in about 5% median symmetric accuracy across all data sets for one‐step dynamic prediction. Using a hierarchical ensemble of LSTMs, we have developed a reduced‐order probabilistic emulator (ROPE) tailored for time‐series forecasting of particle flux in the ring current. This ROPE offers accurate predictions of omnidirectional flux at a single energy with no pitch angle information, providing robust predictions on the test set with an error score below 11% and calibration scores under 8% with bias under 2% providing a significant speed up as compared to the full RAM‐SCB run.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Global Distribution of EMIC Waves and Its Association to Subauroral Proton Precipitation During the 27 May 2017 Storm: Modeling and Multipoint Observations

Recent simulation studies using the RAM-SCB model showed that proton precipitation contributes significantly to the total energy flux deposited into the subauroral ionosphere thereby affecting the magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling. Here, in this study, we use the BATS-R-US + RAM-SCB model to understand the evolution of ElectroMagnetic Ion Cyclotron (EMIC) waves in the inner magnetosphere, their correspondence to the proton precipitation into the subauroral ionosphere, and to assess the performance of the model in reproducing the EMIC wave-particle interactions. During the 27 May 2017 storm, Arase and RBSP-A satellites observed typical signatures of EMIC waves in the inner magnetosphere. Within this interval, Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)/MetOp satellites observed significant proton precipitation in the dusk-midnight sector. Simulation results show that H- and He-band EMIC waves are excited within regions of strong temperature anisotropy near the plasmapause. The simulated growth rates of EMIC waves show a similar trend to that of the EMIC wave power observed by the Arase and RBSP-A satellites, suggesting that the model can reproduce the EMIC wave activity qualitatively. The simulated H-band waves in the dusk sector are stronger than He-band waves possibly due to the presence of excess protons in the boundary conditions obtained from the BATS-R-US code. The precipitating proton fluxes reproduced by the simulation with EMIC waves are found to agree reasonably well with the DMSP and NOAA/MetOp satellite observations. It is suggested that EMIC wave scattering of ring current ions can account for proton precipitation observed by the DMSP and MetOp satellites during the 27 May 2017 storm.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

RAM-SCB Runs on Request at CCMC

The Ring current–Atmosphere interactions Model (RAM) with Self-Consistent magnetic (B) field (SCB) combines a large-scale kinetic model of ring current plasma with a three-dimensional (3-D) force-balanced model of the terrestrial magnetic field. RAM-SCB simulates the evolution of major ion species (H + , O + , and He + by default) and electrons as a function of azimuth, radial distance, energy, and pitch angle. Simulation outputs include the Dst index, and pressure and differential flux of the modeled species, thus providing benefit as a science code and to inform surface charging hazard within the model domain. Version 2.2 of this open-source simulation code has now—as of 8 August 2023—been made available for Runs-On-Request via the Community Coordinated Modeling Center.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2019

Initial Results from the GEM Challenge on the Spacecraft Surface Charging Environment

Spacecraft surface charging during geomagnetically disturbed times is one of the most important causes of satellite anomalies. Predicting the surface charging environment is one prevalent task of the geospace environment models. Therefore, the Geospace Environment Modeling (GEM) Focus Group "Inner Magnetosphere Crossenergy/Population Interactions" initiated a communitywide challenge study to assess the capability of several inner magnetosphere ring current models in determining surface charging environment for the Van Allen Probes orbits during the 17 March 2013 storm event. The integrated electron flux between 10 and 50 keV is used as the metrics. Various skill scores are applied to quantitatively measure the modeling performance against observations. Results indicate that no model consistently perform the best in all of the skill scores or for both satellites. We find that from these simulations the ring current model with observational flux boundary condition and Weimer electric potential driver generally reproduces the most realistic flux level around the spacecraft. A simple and weaker VollandStern electric field is not capable of effectively transporting the same plasma at the boundary toward the Earth. On the other hand, if the ring current model solves the electric field selfconsistently and obtains similar strength and pattern in the equatorial plane as the Weimer model, the boundary condition plays another crucial role in determining the electron flux level in the inner region. When the boundary flux spectra based on magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) model/empirical model deviate from the shape or magnitude of the observed distribution function, the simulation produces poor skill scores along Van Allen Probes orbits.

Yu, Yiqun↗

NASA NTRS2000

Study of Ring Current Dynamics During Geomagnetic Storms

This research program considered modeling the dynamical evolution of the ring current during several geomagnetic storms. The first year (6/01/1997-5/31/1998) of this successful collaborative research between the University of New Hampshire (UNH) and the University of California Los Angeles (UCLA) was supported by NASA grant NAG5-4680. The second and third years (6/01/1998-5/31/2000) were funded at UNH under NASA grant NAG5-7368. Research work at UNH concentrated on further development of a kinetic model to treat all of the important physical processes that affect the ring current ion population during storm conditions. This model was applied to simulate ring current development during several International Solar-Terrestrial Physics (ISTP) events, and the results were directly compared to satellite observations. A brief description of our major accomplishments and a list of the publications and presentations resulting from this effort are given.

Jordanova, Vania K.↗