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John-Paul Clarke

Publications and source records attributed to John-Paul Clarke.

Advanced Vehicle Concepts and Implications for NextGen

This report presents the results of a major NASA study of advanced vehicle concepts and their implications for the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). Comprising the efforts of dozens of researchers at multiple institutions, the analyses presented here cover a broad range of topics including business-case development, vehicle design, avionics, procedure design, delay, safety, environmental impacts, and metrics. The study focuses on the following five new vehicle types: Cruise-efficient short takeoff and landing (CESTOL) vehicles Large commercial tiltrotor aircraft (LCTRs) Unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) Very light jets (VLJs) Supersonic transports (SST). The timeframe of the study spans the years 2025-2040, although some analyses are also presented for a 3X scenario that has roughly three times the number of flights as today. Full implementation of NextGen is assumed.

Air traffic control↗

Trajectory Planning for Mission Survivability of Autonomous Vehicles in Moderately to Extremely Uncertain Environments

Trajectory planning is a particularly challenging task for autonomous vehicles when the uncertainties in their operating environment cannot be characterized statistically. In this paper, we propose a receding horizon control strategy with novel trajectory planning policies that enable dynamic updating of the planned trajectories of autonomous vehicles operating in environments where potential conflicts are, from a statistical perspective, either partially known or completely unknown. The proposed policies utilize two metrics: (1) the number of feasible trajectories; and (2) the robustness of the feasible trajectories. We measure the effectiveness of the suggested policies in terms of mission survivability, which is defined as the probability that the primary mission is accomplished or, if that is not possible, the vehicle lands safely at an alternative site. We show that a linear combination of both metrics is an effective objective function when there is a mix of partially known and unknown uncertainties. When the operating environment is dominated by unknown disturbances, maximizing the number of feasible trajectories results in the highest mission survivability. These findings have significant implications for achieving safe aviation. autonomy.

Aviation autonomy↗

Trajectory Planning for Mission Survivability of Autonomous Vehicles in Moderately to Extremely Uncertain Environments

Trajectory planning is a particularly challenging task for autonomous vehicles when there are moderate to extreme uncertainties in their operating environment, i.e., where the trajectories of hazards are partially known to completely unknown. In this paper, we propose a receding horizon control strategy with novel trajectory planning policies that enable dynamic updating of the planned trajectories of autonomous vehicles. The proposed policies utilize two metrics: (1) the number of feasible trajectories; and (2) the robustness of the feasible trajectories. We measure the effectiveness of the suggested policies in terms of mission survivability, which is defined as the probability that the primary mission is accomplished or, if that is not possible, the vehicle lands safely at an alternative site. We show that a linear combination of both metrics is an effective objective function when there is a mix of partially known and unknown uncertainties. When the operating environment is dominated by unknown disturbances, maximizing the number of feasible trajectories results in the highest mission survivability. These findings have significant implications for achieving safe aviation autonomy.

aviation autonomy↗

Impact of Traffic-Following on Order of Autonomous Airspace Operations

In this paper, we investigate the dynamic emergence of traffic order in a distributed multi-agent system, aiming to minimize inefficiencies that stem from unnecessary structural impositions. We introduce a methodology for developing a dynamically updating traffic pattern map of the airspace by leveraging information about the consistency and frequency of flow directions used by current as well as preceding traffic. Informed by this map, an agent can discern the degree to which it is advantageous to follow traffic by trading off utilities such as time and order. We show that for the traffic levels studied, for low degrees of traffic-following behavior, there is minimal penalty in terms of aircraft travel times while improving the overall orderliness of the airspace. On the other hand, heightened traffic-following behavior may result in increased aircraft travel times, while marginally reducing the overall entropy of the airspace. Ultimately, the methods and metrics presented in this paper can be used to optimally and dynamically adjust an agent’s traffic-following behavior based on these trade-offs.

Airspace Operations↗

Impact of Traffic-Following on Order of Autonomous Airspace Operations

We investigate the dynamic emergence of traffic order in a distributed multi-agent system, aiming to minimize inefficiencies that stem from unnecessary structural impositions. We introduce a methodology for developing a dynamically updating traffic pattern map of the airspace by leveraging information about the consistency and frequency of flow directions used by current as well as preceding traffic. Informed by this map, an agent can discern the degree to which it is advantageous to follow traffic by trading off utilities such as time and order. We show that for the traffic levels studied, for low degrees of traffic-following behavior, there is minimal penalty in terms of aircraft travel times while improving the overall orderliness of the airspace. On the other hand, heightened traffic-following behavior may result in increased aircraft travel times, while marginally reducing the overall entropy of the airspace. Ultimately, the methods and metrics presented in this paper can be used to optimally and dynamically adjust an agent’s traffic-following behavior based on these trade-offs.

Airspace Operations↗