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Ji, Weiqi

Publications and source records attributed to Ji, Weiqi.

Stiff neural ordinary differential equations

Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) are a promising approach to learn dynamical models from time-series data in science and engineering applications. This work aims at learning neural ODEs for stiff systems, which are usually raised from chemical kinetic modeling in chemical and biological systems. We first show the challenges of learning neural ODEs in the classical stiff ODE systems of Robertson’s problem and propose techniques to mitigate the challenges associated with scale separations in stiff systems. We then present successful demonstrations in stiff systems of Robertson’s problem and an air pollution problem. The demonstrations show that the usage of deep networks with rectified activations, proper scaling of the network outputs as well as loss functions, and stabilized gradient calculations are the key techniques enabling the learning of stiff neural ODEs. The success of learning stiff neural ODEs opens up possibilities of using neural ODEs in applications with widely varying time-scales, such as chemical dynamics in energy conversion, environmental engineering, and life sciences.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Machine learning model to project the impact of COVID-19 on U.S. motor gasoline demand

Owing to the global lockdowns that resulted from the COVID-19 pandemic, fuel demand plummeted and the price of oil futures went negative in April 2020. Robust fuel demand projections are crucial to economic and energy planning and policy discussions. Here we incorporate pandemic projections and people's resulting travel and trip activities and fuel usage in a machine-learning-based model to project the US medium-term gasoline demand and study the impact of government intervention. We found that under the reference infection scenario, the US gasoline demand grows slowly after a quick rebound in May, and is unlikely to fully recover prior to October 2020. Under the reference and pessimistic scenario, continual lockdown (no reopening) could worsen the motor gasoline demand temporarily, but it helps the demand recover to a normal level quicker. Under the optimistic infection scenario, gasoline demand will recover close to the non-pandemic level by October 2020. The COVID 19 pandemic and consequent lockdown has had a substantial impact on mobility and therefore fuel demand and it is not clear when demand will recover. Ou et al. use a machine learning model that integrates health recovery scenarios to project the near-term future of gasoline demand.

COVID-19 pandemic↗