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Jessie L Dotson

Publications and source records attributed to Jessie L Dotson.

3 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2026

Hidden in Plain Sight: A New Main Belt Population of Aqueously Altered and Thermally Metamorphosed Asteroids

C-complex low albedo asteroids are understood to be related to aqueously altered carbonaceous chondrite meteorites. However, in recent years, a new subgroup of aqueously altered meteorites that have experienced significant heating after their initial interactions with water has been extensively studied. It remains unclear where the aqueously altered and heated parent bodies are located in the asteroid belt. To address this question, we reanalyzed the original dataset that defined the Bus-DeMeo spectral taxonomy of asteroids (DeMeo et al., 2009) using a machine learning approach trained with near-infrared archival meteorite spectra. Results show that ~50% of the C-complex asteroids first identified in the Bus-DeMeo asteroid spectral taxonomy are aqueously altered and heated. Though Ryugu has been shown to also have experienced both of these processes, this is the first evidence of a population of aqueously altered and thermally metamorphosed asteroids in the Main Asteroid Belt. Based on the expected velocity and frequency of impacts in the main belt population, we conclude that impacts are the most likely heat source driving thermal metamorphism we identify. Moreover, these aqueously altered and thermally metamorphosed asteroids may represent a primordial population of low-albedo material that formed in situ in the inner solar system. If these asteroids formed in place, rather than being brought in from the outer solar system during giant planet migration, they would have experienced more frequent and higher velocity impacts, resulting in their distinct mineralogy.

Main Belt asteroids↗
NASA NTRS2017

A Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk Model

Asteroid threat assessment requires the quantification of both the impact likelihood and resulting consequence across the range of possible events. This paper presents a probabilistic asteroid impact risk (PAIR) assessment model developed for this purpose. The model incorporates published impact frequency rates with state-of-the-art consequence assessment tools, applied within a Monte Carlo framework that generates sets of impact scenarios from uncertain parameter distributions. Explicit treatment of atmospheric entry is included to produce energy deposition rates that account for the effects of thermal ablation and object fragmentation. These energy deposition rates are used to model the resulting ground damage, and affected populations are computed for the sampled impact locations. The results for each scenario are aggregated into a distribution of potential outcomes that reflect the range of uncertain impact parameters, population densities, and strike probabilities. As an illustration of the utility of the PAIR model, the results are used to address the question of what minimum size asteroid constitutes a threat to the population. To answer this question, complete distributions of results are combined with a hypothetical risk tolerance posture to provide the minimum size, given sets of initial assumptions. Model outputs demonstrate how such questions can be answered and provide a means for interpreting the effect that input assumptions and uncertainty can have on final risk-based decisions. Model results can be used to prioritize investments to gain knowledge in critical areas or, conversely, to identify areas where additional data has little effect on the metrics of interest.

Asteroid↗