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Jarman, Kenneth D.

Publications and source records attributed to Jarman, Kenneth D..

Reduction of detection limit and quantification uncertainty due to interferent by neural classification with abstention

Many measurements in the physical sciences can be cast as counting experiments, where the number of occurrences of a physical phenomenon informs the prevalence of the phenomenon's source. Often, detection of the physical phenomenon (termed signal) is difficult to distinguish from naturally occurring phenomena (termed background). In this case, the discrimination of signal events from background can be performed using classifiers, and they may range from simple, threshold-based classifiers to sophisticated neural networks. These classifiers are often trained and validated to obtain optimal accuracy, however we show that the optimal accuracy classifier does not generally coincide with a classifier that provides the lowest detection limit, nor the lowest quantification uncertainty. Here, we present a derivation of the detection limit and quantification uncertainty in the classifier-based counting experiment case. We also present a novel abstention mechanism to minimize the detection limit or quantification uncertainty a posteriori. We illustrate the method on two data sets from the physical sciences, discriminating Ar-37 and Ar-39 radioactive decay from non-radioactive events in a gas proportional counter, and discriminating neutrons from gammas in an inorganic scintillator and report results therefrom.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

A single-pixel X-ray imager concept and its application to secure radiographic inspections

Imaging technology is generally considered too invasive for arms control inspections due to the concern that it cannot properly secure sensitive features of the inspected item. However, this same sensitive information, which could include direct information on the form and function of the items under inspection, could be used for robust arms control inspections. The single-pixel X-ray imager (SPXI) is introduced as a method to make such inspections, capturing the salient spatial information of an object in a secure manner while never forming an actual image. The method is built on the theory of compressive sensing and the single pixel optical camera. The performance of the system is quantified here using simulated inspections of simple objects. Measures of the robustness and security of the method are introduced and used to determine how such an inspection would be made which can maintain high robustness and security. In particular, it is found that an inspection with low noise (<1%) and high undersampling (>256×) exhibits high robustness and security.

Arms Control↗

Exploratory study on potential safeguards applications for shared ledger technology

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is responsible for providing credible assurance that countries are meeting their obligations not to divert or misuse nuclear materials and facilities for non-peaceful purposes. To this end, the IAEA integrates information about States’ nuclear material inventories and transactions with other types of data to draw its safeguards conclusions. As the amount and variety of data and information has increased, the IAEA’s data acquisition, management, and analysis processes have greatly benefited from advancements in computer science, data management, and cybersecurity during the last 20 years. Despite these advancements, inconsistent use of advanced computer technologies as well as political concerns among certain IAEA Member States centered on trust, transparency, and IAEA authorities limit the overall effectiveness and efficiency of IAEA safeguards. As a result, there is an ongoing need to strengthen the effectiveness and efficiency of IAEA safeguards while improving Member State cooperation and trust in the safeguards system. These chronic safeguards needs could be met with some emerging technologies, specifically those associated with the digital currency bitcoin.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Method of generating features optimal to a dataset and classifier

A method of generating features optimal to a particular dataset and classifier is disclosed. A dataset of messages is inputted and a classifier is selected. An algebra of features is encoded. Computable features that are capable of describing the dataset from the algebra of features are selected. Irredundant features that are optimal for the classifier and the dataset are selected.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Combining Inspection and Unattended Monitoring: Statistical Analysis of Timely Detection

Process monitoring traditionally relies on facility operator measurements. New concepts for future inspection regimes include inspectorate-owned systems that enable unattended monitoring (UM) of all declared material flow \cite{smith_potential}. If such systems can be established as viable alternatives, they may provide an important new capability: a true inspector's estimate of MUF that can achieve the efficiency and effectiveness goals outlined by the IAEA. A rigorous statistical framework for comparing traditional and new methodologies is needed to evaluate this potential and enable inspectorates to optimally balance UM and sampling in the context of timely detection and cost constraints. Recognizing that these are only two among a wide range of safeguards activities that support mass balance evaluation to detect missing material, this paper compares UM to traditional safeguards sampling in terms of detection probabilities as a function of time based on simplistic material loss scenarios, and shows how the detection probabilities can be rather easily combined. Using this approach can help enable tradeoff analysis and optimal resource allocation.

international safeguards↗

Monte Carlo Uncertainty Quantification for an Unattended Enrichment Monitor

As a case study for uncertainty analysis, we consider a model flow monitor for measuring enrichment in gas centrifuge enrichment plants (GCEPs) that could provide continuous monitoring of all declared gas flow and provide high-accuracy gas enrichment estimates as a function of time. The monitor system could include NaI(Tl) gamma-ray spectrometers, a pressure signal-sharing device to be installed on an operator\rq{}s pressure gauge or a dedicated inspector pressure sensor, and temperature sensors attached to the outside of the header pipe, to provide pressure, temperature, and gamma-ray spectra measurements of UF$_6$ gas flow through unit header pipes. Our study builds on previous modeling and analysis methods development for enrichment monitor concepts and a software tool that was developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory to generate and analyze synthetic data.

international safeguards↗

Modeling and Analysis Methods for an On-line Enrichment Monitor

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has developed an On-Line Enrichment Monitor (OLEM) as one possible component in a new generation of safeguards measures for uranium enrichment plants. The OLEM measures 235U emissions from the UF6 gas flowing through a unit header pipe using NaI(Tl) spectrometers, and corrects for gas density changes using pressure and temperature sensors in order to determine the enrichment of the gas as a function of time. In parallel with the OLEM instrument development, a Virtual OLEM (VOLEM) software tool has been developed that is capable of producing synthetic gamma-ray, pressure, and temperature data representative of a wide range of enrichment plant operating conditions. VOLEM complements instrument development activities and allows the study of OLEM for scenarios that will be difficult or impossible to evaluate empirically. Uses of VOLEM include: investigation of hardware design options; inter-comparison of candidate gamma-ray spectral analysis and enrichment estimation algorithms; uncertainty budget analysis and performance prediction for typical and atypical operational scenarios; and testing of the OLEM data acquisition, analysis and reporting software. This paper describes the technical foundations of VOLEM and illustrates how it can be used. An overview of the nominal instrument design and deployment scenario for OLEM is provided, with emphasis on the key online-assay measurement challenge: accurately determining the portion of the total 235U signal that comes from a background that includes solid uranium deposits on the piping walls. Monte Carlo modeling tools, data analysis algorithms and uncertainty quantification methods are described. VOLEM is then used to quantitatively explore the uncertainty budgets and predicted instrument performance for a plausible range of typical plant operating parameters, and one set of candidate analysis algorithms. Additionally, a series of VOLEM case studies illustrates how an online enrichment monitor might respond in scenarios expected to be atypical, for example weak pressure transients or significant changes in background levels.

Smith, Leon E.↗

Improvements in the Method of Radiation Anomaly Detection by Spectral Comparison Ratios

Algorithms for detecting illicit gamma radiation sources must respond to a wide variety of threat signatures and ignore a wider variety of clutter. Previously, we described the Nuisance-rejection Spectral Comparison Ratio Anomaly Detection (N-SCRAD) method for indicating the presence of threat sources during mobile search operations. Our method relies on the formulation of radiation alarm test statistics applied to detector counts in numerous spectral regions of interest and our test statistics are standardized by local estimates of background variability. In this work we present a new automated procedure for selecting test statistics and specifying the regions of interest based on minimizing detectable count rates of prototype threat spectra at a specified false positive rate using simulated annealing. The new procedure can be applied to configuring the detection algorithm when the prototype threats are many and diverse without significantly compromising the detection sensitivity to any one of them. N-SCRAD makes use of estimates of background variability obtained during a search from prior measurements of background. In applications such estimates made purely from past measurements sometimes do not extrapolate well to current conditions. In this work we present a new method for correcting those estimates to current conditions of the total count rate. We demonstrate that the correction lowers detection thresholds for a specified false positive rate, enabling greater sensitivity to targets. The two proposed improvements to N-SCRAD maximize detection power for the expected variety of possible threats while reducing or maintaining the false positive rate.

Anomaly detection, Gamma-ray spectroscopy, Radiati↗

UQ Methods for HPDA and Cybersecurity Models, Data, and Use Cases

This report describes our initial research to quantify uncertainties in the identification and characterization of possible attack states in a network. As a result, we should be able to estimate the current state in which the network is operating, based on a wide variety of network data, and attach a defensible measure of confidence to these state estimates. The output of this research will be new uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods to help develop a process for model development and apply UQ to characterize attacks/adversaries, create an understanding of the degree to which methods scale to "big" data, and offer methods for addressing model approaches with regard to validation and accuracy.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Combining Radiography and Passive Measurements for Radiological Threat Localization in Cargo

Detecting shielded special nuclear material (SNM) in a cargo container is a difficult problem, since shielding reduces the amount of radiation escaping the container. Radiography provides information that is complementary to that provided by passive gamma-ray detection systems: while not directly sensitive to radiological materials, radiography can reveal highly shielded regions that may mask a passive radiological signal. Combining these measurements has the potential to improve SNM detection, either through improved sensitivity or by providing a solution to the inverse problem to estimate source properties (strength and location). We present a data-fusion method that uses a radiograph to provide an estimate of the radiation-transport environment for gamma rays from potential sources. This approach makes quantitative use of radiographic images without relying on image interpretation, and results in a probabilistic description of likely source locations and strengths. We present results for this method for a modeled test case of a cargo container passing through a plastic-scintillator-based radiation portal monitor and a transmission-radiography system. We find that a radiograph-based inversion scheme allows for localization of a low-noise source placed randomly within the test container to within 40 cm, compared to 70 cm for triangulation alone, while strength estimation accuracy is improved by a factor of six. Improvements are seen in regions of both high and low shielding, but are most pronounced in highly shielded regions. The approach proposed here combines transmission and emission data in a manner that has not been explored in the cargo-screening literature, advancing the ability to accurately describe a hidden source based on currently-available instrumentation.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Uncertainty quantification in application of the enrichment meter principle for nondestructive assay of special nuclear material

The various methods of nondestructive assay (NDA) of special nuclear material (SNM) have applications in nuclear nonproliferation, including detection and identification of illicit SNM at border crossings, and quantifying SNM at nuclear facilities for safeguards. No assay method is complete without “error bars,” which provide one way of expressing confidence in the assay result. Consequently, NDA specialists typically quantify total uncertainty in terms of “random” and “systematic” components, and then specify error bars for the total mass estimate in multiple items. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) for NDA has always been important, but it is recognized that greater rigor is needed and achievable using modern statistical methods. To this end, we describe the extent to which the guideline for expressing uncertainty in measurements (GUM) can be used for NDA. Also, we propose improvements over GUM for NDA by illustrating UQ challenges that it does not address, including calibration with errors in predictors, model error, and item-specific biases. A case study is presented using low-resolution NaI spectra and applying the enrichment meter principle to estimate the U-235 mass in an item. The case study illustrates how to update the current American Society for Testing and Materials guide for application of the enrichment meter principle using gamma spectra from a NaI detector.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Femtosecond Laser Ablation Multicollector ICPMS Analysis of Uranium Isotopes in NIST Glass

We have utilized femtosecond laser ablation coupled to multi-collector inductively couple plasma mass spectrometry to measure the uranium isotopic content of NIST 61x (x=0,2,4,6) glasses. The uranium content of these glasses is a linear two-component mixing between isotopically natural uranium and the isotopically depleted spike used in preparing the glasses. Laser ablation results match extremely well, generally within a few ppm, with solution analysis following sample dissolution and chemical separation. In addition to isotopic data, sample utilization efficiency measurements indicate that over 1% of ablated uranium atoms reach a mass spectrometer detector, making this technique extremely efficient. Laser sampling also allows for spatial analysis and our data indicate that rare uranium concentration inhomogeneities exist in NIST 616 glass.

Duffin, Andrew M.↗

Erratum: A Comparison of Closures for Stochastic Advection-Diffusion Equations

This note corrects an error in the authors' article [SIAM/ASA J. Uncertain. Quantif., 1 (2013), pp. 319 347] in which the cited work [Neuman, Water Resour. Res., 29(3) (1993), pp. 633 645] was incorrectly represented and attributed. Concentration covariance equations presented in our article as new were in fact previously derived in the latter work. In the original abstract, the phrase " . . .we propose a closed-form approximation to two-point covariance as a measure of uncertainty. . ." should be replaced by the phrase " . . .we study a closed-form approximation to two-point covariance, previously derived in [Neuman 1993], as a measure of uncertainty." The primary results in our article--the analytical and numerical comparison of existing closure methods for specific example problems are not changed by this correction.

stochastic PDE↗

Secure Image Hash Comparison for Warhead Verification

The effort to inspect and verify warheads in the context of possible future arms control treaties is rife with security and implementation issues. In this paper we review prior work on perceptual image hashing for template-based warhead verification. Furthermore, we formalize the notion of perceptual hashes and demonstrate that large classes of such functions are likely not cryptographically secure. We close with a brief discussion of fully homomorphic encryption as an alternative technique.

Bruillard, Paul J.↗

Non-invasive material discrimination using spectral x-ray radiography

Current radiographic methods are limited in their ability to determine the presence of nuclear materials in containers or composite objects. A central problem is the inability to distinguish the attenuation pattern of high-density metals from those with a greater thickness of a less dense material. Here, we show that spectrally sensitive detectors can be used to discriminate plutonium from multiple layers of other materials using a single-view radiograph. An inverse algorithm with adaptive regularization is used. The algorithm can determine the presence of plutonium in simulated radiographs with a mass resolution per unit area of at least 0.07 g cm{sup −2}.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DNDO Analysis Cell Concept

The Domestic Nuclear Detection Office (DNDO) has a mission of implementing rad/nuc interdiction capabilities for a managed and coordinated response to threats, integration of federal nuclear forensics programs, and coordinating the development of the global nuclear detection and reporting architecture. In the process of executing this mission, DNDO has generated substantial information, data, technical results, operational workflows and analytical tools. The effective utilization of these resources is an overarching goal of the organization. After nearly a decade of performing work, DNDO faces a challenge in capitalizing on the large amount of data, reports, processes, tools, and people. As new work is being planned, managers and researchers need to have an understating of what information has been collected, what tools are available, the collaborations which can be utilized to propel the work forward, processes to plan and execute, and how to present conclusions and results that can assist the government in making decisions. This type of challenge can be met through the use of a series of organized and connected elements which form a broader structure (cell) that promotes cross utilization of elements such that they can be tailored (analyzed) to fit the context of the problem to be solved. The development of an analysis cell for DNDO will address the challenges of utilizing existing elements, identifying gaps, annually reporting the performance of rad/nuc interdiction instrumentation, and planning the execution of future work.

Pagh, Richard T.↗