Impacts of EPA’s finalized power plant greenhouse gas standards
Emissions reductions may be met with relatively small costs.
Bistline, John↗
Engineering topics
Iyer, Gokul
Publications and source records attributed to Iyer, Gokul.
Sensitivity of future regional and global energy markets and macroeconomic activity to a hypothetical global energy market disruption
Not Available
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
The impacts of material supply availability on a transitioning electric power sector
Not Available
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
The path to 2060: Saudi Arabia's long-term pathway for GHG emission reduction
Saudi Arabia, as part of its Saudi Green Initiative, has announced its goal to achieve net zero green-house gas emissions by 2060. This ambitious target underscores the nation's dedication to address-ing climate change. However, there is a significant gap in comprehensive analysis regarding the long-term effects of Saudi Arabia's climate policies and their collective contribution towards the net-zero objective. This study endeavors to bridge this gap through a detailed examination using the GCAM-KSA, a specialized version of the Global Change Analysis Model tailored for Saudi Arabia, employing a multi-sectoral methodology that integrates economic, energy, and land use systems within a coherent framework to assess the impact of climate policies on GHG emissions. Our anal-ysis reveals that reaching net-zero GHG emissions by 2060 is a complex challenge requiring con-certed efforts across all sectors of the economy. While transitioning to low-carbon electricity and improving energy efficiency offer considerable emission reductions, fully decarbonizing the indus-trial and transportation sectors poses a significant hurdle. Our findings suggest that Saudi Arabia must triple its emission reduction commitments in its next Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) update to align with its 2060 net-zero goal. Early action and increased ambition could avoid the chances of getting locked into the high emission assets and give enough time to transform the energy system. Furthermore, the adoption and integration of Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) tech-nologies are identified as crucial for offsetting residual emissions, especially in sectors that might continue to rely on fossil fuels.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Implications of an emission trading scheme for India’s net-zero strategy: a modelling-based assessment
To help meet its near-term NDC goals and long-term net-zero 2070 target, the Government of India has planned to establish a Carbon Credit Trading Scheme (CCTS), i.e. a domestic emission trading scheme (ETS). An ETS is an inherently cost-effective policy instrument for emission reduction, providing the greatest flexibility to reduce emissions from within and across sectors. An effective ETS requires design features that consider country-specific challenges and reflect its role within the larger policy package to achieve long-term emission reduction. Within the Indian context and in this study we therefore investigate—(i) what might be the role of the ETS in achieving India’s long-term mitigation targets? (ii) How might the various sectors interact under an emissions cap? (iii) How might the ETS interact with existing energy and climate policies? We do this analysis by running four main scenarios using the integrated assessment model GCAM (v6.0), adapted to India-specific assumptions and expectations. These scenarios are—(i) NZ (net-zero), (ii) NZ + ETS, (iii) NZ + CC (command and control), and (iv) NZ + RPO (renewables purchase obligations) + ETS. The NZ scenario assumes India’s near-term and long-term climate commitments of net zero by 2070. Scenarios with ETS (ii) and (iv) apply an emissions cap on four sectors—electricity, iron and steel, cement, and fertilizer. The scenario with CC applies a homogenous emission cap on each of the chosen sectors but does not allow cross-sectoral trading. The last scenario includes renewables purchase obligations (RPOs along with an ETS. We show that under a specific ETS emissions cap: (i) the electricity sector emerges as the largest source of cost-effective greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction options; (ii) ETS with trading across sectors is around 24% more cost-effective than ETS with trading only within sectors, (iii) RPOs can be complementary to an ETS although the impact of RPOs on GHG reductions in the electricity sector would need to be considered when setting the level of the ETS cap (or emissions intensity targets) or the RPO targets to avoid low carbon prices, and (iv) the direction and volume of financial transfers across sectors depends on allocation targets set by the government. Based on these results we provide design recommendations for India’s ETS.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
High-ambition climate action in all sectors can achieve a 65% greenhouse gas emissions reduction in the United States by 2035
Under the next cycle of target setting under the Paris Agreement, countries will be updating and submitting new nationally determined contributions (NDCs) over the coming year. To this end, there is a growing need for the United States to assess potential pathways toward a new, maximally ambitious 2035 NDC. In this study, we use an integrated assessment model with state-level detail to model existing policies from both federal and non-federal actors, including the Inflation Reduction Act, Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, and key state policies, across all sectors and gases. Additionally, we develop a high-ambition scenario, which includes new and enhanced policies from these actors. We find that existing policies can reduce net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 44% (with a range of 37% to 52%) by 2035, relative to 2005 levels. The high-ambition scenario can deliver net GHG reductions up to 65% (with a range of 59% to 71%) by 2035 under accelerated implementation of federal regulations and investments, as well as state policies such as renewable portfolio standards, EV sales targets, and zero-emission appliance standards. This level of reductions would provide a basis for continued progress toward the country’s 2050 net-zero emissions goal.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Comparing net zero pathways across the Atlantic A model inter-comparison exercise between the Energy Modeling Forum 37 and the European Climate and Energy Modeling Forum
Europe and North America account for 32 % of current carbon emissions. Due to distinct legacy systems, energy infrastructure, socioeconomic development, and energy resource endowment, both regions have different policy and technological pathways to reach net zero by the mid-century. Against this background, our paper examines the results from the net zero emission scenarios for Europe and North America that emerged from the collaboration of the European and American Energy Modeling Forums. Here, in our analysis, we perform an inter-comparison of various integrated assessments and bottom-up energy system models. A clear qualitative consensus emerges on five main points. First, Europe and the United States reach net zero targets with electrification, demand-side reductions, and carbon capture and sequestration technologies. Second, the use of carbon capture and sequestration is more predominant in the United States due to a steeper decarbonization schedule. Third, the buildings sector is the easiest to electrify in both regions. Fourth, the industrial sector is the hardest to electrify in the United States and transportation in Europe. Fifth, in both regions, the transition in the energy mix is driven by the substitution of coal and natural gas with solar and wind, but to a different extent.
100 % renewables↗
Energy system analysis of cutting off Russian gas supply to the European Union
The reduction of European Union's pipeline gas imports from Russia as a consequence of the Russian war against Ukraine has had severe economy-wide implications for the EU. Using a multisector integrated assessment model (GCAM), we find that a potential complete cut-off of Russian pipeline gas exports to the EU unevenly impacts the energy mix, prices, and trade flows of different subregions within the EU, depending on their access to alternative gas pipelines and LNG infrastructure. Moreover, there are also large changes in the volume and geographical distribution of global gas infrastructure capacity additions and stranded assets. Our results show that by significantly reducing demand for natural gas, the EU Fit-for-55 policy framework already improves resilience against a complete and persistent cut-off of Russian pipeline gas. However, further improvements in energy efficiency and renewable targets could further soften impacts, while bringing climate objectives closer in sight.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Hydropower expansion in eco-sensitive river basins under global energy-economic change
Vast hydropower resources remain untapped globally, the deployment of which could provide energy-economic benefits but impact riverine ecosystems. Across eco-sensitive river basins, it is unclear how drivers of hydropower expansion, such as rapid economic growth and a low-carbon energy transition, could interact with countervailing forces, such as increasingly cost-competitive variable renewable energy (VRE). Using an integrated energy-water-economy model, we explore the effects of these forces on long-term hydropower expansion in the world’s 20 most eco-sensitive basins, which have high ecological richness and untapped hydropower potential. Here, we find that a low-carbon transition exerts the strongest development pressure, causing deployment exceeding 80% of exploitable potential in more than 72% of eco-sensitive basins by 2050, most of which have limited deployment today. Rapid economic growth induces such extensive deployment in only 44% of eco-sensitive basins. Enhanced integration of VRE reduces deployment, alleviating the impacts of rapid economic growth but not the low-carbon transition.
13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
Three different directions in which the European Union could replace Russian natural gas
Russia's invasion of Ukraine fuelled an energy crisis, which considerably impacted Europe given its heavy reliance on Russian natural gas imports. This study uses an ensemble of four global integrated assessment models, which are further soft-linked to two sectoral models, and explores the synergies and trade-offs among three approaches to living without Russian gas in Europe: (a) replacing with other gas imports, (b) boosting domestic energy production, and (c) reducing demand and accelerating energy efficiency. We find that substituting Russian gas from other trade partners would miss an opportunity to accelerate decarbonisation in end-use sectors while risking further fossil-fuel lock-ins, despite featuring the lowest gas price spikes and potentially reducing heating costs for end-users in the near term. Boosting domestic, primarily renewable, energy production on the other hand would instead require considerable investments, potentially burdening consumers. Energy demand reductions, however, could offer considerable space for further emissions cuts at the lowest power-sector investment costs; nonetheless, an energy efficiency-driven strategy would also risk relocation of energy-intensive industries, an aspect of increasing relevance to EU policymakers.
03 NATURAL GAS↗
Global Energy System Transitions
Energy systems power the world’s economies. They are pivotal to providing sustained economic prosperity that provides the goods and services that humans desire. Climate change is intimately linked with energy systems, because CO2 from fossil fuel use is the most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas emitted to the atmosphere, and cumulative anthropogenic emissions determine Earth’s concentration of CO2. Limiting climate change therefore means that global energy systems must reduce net CO2 emissions to zero and stabilize emissions of other GHGs. We compare energy system pathways as they are currently evolving with alternatives that have the potential to limit climate change over the 21st century. The differences are profound. Here we also discuss some frontier research issues that can provide a better understanding of potential pathways and their implications for decisions makers.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Compounding Uncertainties in Economic and Population Growth Increase Tail Risks for Relevant Outcomes Across Sectors
Understanding the long-term effects of population and GDP changes requires a multisectoral and regional understanding of the coupled human-Earth system, as the long-term evolution of this coupled system is influenced by human decisions and the Earth system. This study investigates the impact of compounding economic and population growth uncertainties on long-term multisectoral outcomes. We use the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to explore the influence of compounding and feedback between future GDP and population growth on four key sectors: final energy consumption, water withdrawal, staple food prices, and CO 2 emissions. The results show that uncertainties in GDP and population compound, resulting in a magnification of tail risks for outcomes across sectors and regions. Compounding uncertainties significantly impact metrics such as CO 2 emissions and final energy consumption, particularly at the upper tail at both global and regional levels. However, the impact of staple food prices and water withdrawal depends on regional factors. Additionally, an alternative low-carbon transition scenario could compound uncertainties and increase tail risk, particularly in staple food prices, highlighting the influence of emergent constraints on land availability and food-energy competition for land use. The findings underscore the importance of considering and adequately accounting for compounding uncertainties in key drivers of multisectoral systems to enhance our comprehensive understanding of the complex nature of multisectoral systems. The paper provides valuable insights into the potential implications of compounding uncertainties.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Geophysical Constraints on Decarbonized Systems—Building Spatio-Temporal Uncertainties into Future Electricity Grid Planning
Future electricity grids will be characterized by the high penetration of renewables to support the decarbonization process. Yet, this transition will further expose grids to a broad spectrum of geophysical forces, such as weather and climate, land and space, minerals and materials. Understanding their role is thus important to support the grid decarbonization process. Here, we synthesize the current body of knowledge on the relationship between geophysical constraints and electricity grid planning. Additionally, we show that there have been promising advances in the data, methods, and modelling tools needed to incorporate the effect of geophysical constraints on demand, resource availability, and grid operations. There are, however, multiple research avenues that deserve further attention. More system-specific and finer-scale analyses are necessary to better understand how spatio-temporal variability---and associated uncertainty---in geophysical forces affect grid planning. Moreover, we need a broader focus on the multi-sectoral implications of grid decarbonization efforts, so as to limit the risk of unintended consequences. Importantly, all these efforts are challenged by the computational requirements of existing power system models, which often limit our ability to characterize uncertainty, scale analyses across larger domains, or study the multi-sector implications of grid expansion decisions.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Equity implications of net-zero emissions: A multi-model analysis of energy expenditures across income classes under economy-wide deep decarbonization policies
With companies, states, and countries targeting net-zero emissions around midcentury, there are questions about how these targets alter household welfare and finances, including distributional effects across income groups. This paper examines the distributional dimensions of technology transitions and net-zero policies with a focus on welfare impacts across household incomes. The analysis uses a model intercomparison with a range of energy-economy models using harmonized policy scenarios reaching economy-wide, net-zero CO 2 emissions across the United States in 2050. Here we employ a novel linking approach that connects output from detailed energy system models with survey microdata on energy expenditures across income classes to provide distributional analysis of net-zero policies. Although there are differences in model structure and input assumptions, we find broad agreement in qualitative trends in policy incidence and energy burdens across income groups. Models generally agree that direct energy expenditures for many households will likely decline over time with reference and net-zero policies. However, there is variation in the extent of changes relative to current levels, energy burdens relative to reference levels, and electricity expenditures. Policy design, primarily how climate policy revenues are used, has first-order impacts on distributional outcomes. Net-zero policy costs, in both absolute and relative terms, are unevenly distributed across households, and relative increases in energy expenditures are higher for lowest-income households. However, we also find that recycled revenues from climate policies have countervailing effects when rebated on a per-capita basis, offsetting higher energy burdens and potentially even leading to net progressive outcomes. Model results also show carbon Laffer curves, where revenues from net-zero policies increase but then decline with higher stringencies, which can diminish the progressive effects of climate policies. We also illustrate how using annual income deciles for distributional analysis instead of expenditure deciles can overstate the progressivity of emissions policies by overweighting revenue impacts on the lowest-income deciles.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Agricultural market integration preserves future global water resources
Not Available
16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
Version of GCAM-USA used for National Climate Assessment 5, Chapter 5: GCAM-USA-v5.3-IM3-NCA5
Overview GCAM-USA-v5.3-IM3-NCA5 is developed using GCAM-USA-v5.3 as its core, with the impact of the thermodynamic global warming scenario "RCP8.5_hotter" on runoff, heating and cooling degree-hours, and agricultural yield and the SSP5 socioeconomic scenario. These scenarios were produced as part of the Integrated Multisector, Multiscale Modeling (IM3) project and used by National Climate Assessment 5. Detailed Information This software package includes the output dataset, which is located in "output/database_rcp85hotter_ssp5". For reproducibility, the model is setup and ready to run for the selected IM3 scenario "rcp85hotter_ssp5". To execute the model, double click "exe/run-gcam.bat".
Climate Change↗
GCAM-USA electricity demand results for National Climate Assessment 5
Overview This dataset includes GCAM-USA v 5.3 outputs for the percent change in electricity demand in the U.S. from 2020 to 2050 and from 2020 to 2100 for the thermodynamic global warming scenario "RCP8.5_hotter" and the SSP5 socioeconomic scenario. These results were produced as part of the Integrated Multisector, Multiscale Modeling (IM3) project. Detailed Information The electricity demand is calculated based on the IM3 GCAM-USA simulations. For the purpose of reproducibility, we provide the following data: 1. Raw data: the annual electricity demand for CONUS simulated by IM3 GCAM-USA for the scenario RCP8.5 Hotter - SSP5. 2. R scripts: process raw data, calculate percent change of electricity demand from 2020 to 2050 and from 2020 to 2100, and plot the data over CONUS. 3. Results: figures provided for NCA-5 and the corresponding data table from the R scripts.
Climate Change↗