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Isaksen, I. S. A.

Publications and source records attributed to Isaksen, I. S. A..

Aviation Fuel Tracer Simulation: Model Intercomparison and Implications

An upper limit for aircraft-produced perturbations to aerosols and gaseous exhaust products in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UT/LS) is derived using the 1992 aviation fuel tracer simulation performed by eleven global atmospheric models. Key findings are that subsonic aircraft emissions: (1) have not been responsible for the observed water vapor trends at 40degN; (2) could be a significant source of soot mass near 12 km, but not at 20 km; (3) might cause a noticeable increase in the background sulfate aerosol surface area and number densities (but not mass density) near the northern mid-latitude tropopause; and (4) could provide a global, annual mean top of the atmosphere radiative forcing up to +0.006 W/sq m and -0.013 W/sq m due to emitted soot and sulfur, respectively.

Danilin, M. Y.↗

Aviation Fuel Tracer Simulation: Model Intercomparison and Implications

An upper limit for aircraft-produced perturbations to aerosols and gaseous exhaust products in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UT/LS) is derived using the 1992 aviation fuel tracer simulation performed by eleven global atmospheric models. Key Endings are that subsonic aircraft emissions: (1) have not be responsible for the observed water vapor trends at 40 deg N; (2) could be a significant source of soot mass near 12 km, but not at 20 km; (3) might cause a noticeable increase in the background sulfate aerosol surface area and number densities (but not mass density) near the northern mid-latitude tropopause; and (4) could provide a global, annual mean top of the atmosphere radiative forcing up to +0.006 W/sq m and -0.013 W/sq m due to emitted soot and sulfur, respectively.

Danilin, M. Y.↗

The atmospheric effects of stratospheric aircraft: A current consensus

In the early 1970's, a fleet of supersonic aircraft flying in the lower stratosphere was proposed. A large fleet was never built for economic, political, and environmental reasons. Technological improvements may make it economically feasible to develop supersonic aircraft for current markets. Some key results of earlier scientific programs designed to assess the impact of aircraft emissions on stratospheric ozone are reviewed, and factors that must be considered to assess the environmental impact of aircraft exhaust are discussed. These include the amount of nitrogen oxides injected in the stratosphere, horizontal transport, and stratosphere/troposphere assessment models are presented. Areas in which improvements in scientific understanding and model representation must be made to reduce the uncertainty in model calculations are identified.

Douglass, A. R.↗

Ozone perturbations by enhanced levels of CFCs, N2O, and CH4 A two-dimensional diabatic circulation study including uncertainty estimates

Observations made over the last few years suggest that the tropospheric concentrations of N2O, CH4, and O3 are increasing. Increases in the concentration of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) have been observed for some time. The present study is concerned with combined scenarios of future releases of N2O, CH4, and CFCs, which can affect the height profiles of ozone, while changes in latitudinal gradients of ozone may also be expected. Ozone perturbation calculations performed in the two-dimensional transport-chemistry model described by Stordal et al. (1985) are also presented, and the effects of increased levels of CFCs, N2O, and CH4 are examined. It is found that CH4 may be the most important ozone-perturbing trace species in connection with future tropospheric climatic impacts. A substantial increase in the tropospheric abundancy of CH4 could lead to large future ozone enhancements throughout the troposphere and lower stratosphere at middle and low latitudes.

Isaksen, I. S. A.↗

A diabatic circulation two-dimensional model with photochemistry - Simulations of ozone and long-lived tracers with surface sources

Numerous studies have been concerned with the possibility of a reduction of the stratospheric ozone layer. Such a reduction could lead to an enhanced penetration of ultraviolet (UV) radiation to the ground, and, as a result, to damage in the case of several biological processes. It is pointed out that the distributions of many trace gases, such as ozone, are governed in part by transport processes. The present investigation presents a two-dimensional photochemistry-transport model using the residual circulation. The global distribution of both ozone and components with ground sources computed in this model is in good agreement with the observations even though slow diffusion is adopted. The agreement is particularly good in the Northern Hemisphere. The results provide additional support for the idea that tracer transport in the stratosphere is mainly of advective nature.

Stordal, F.↗

Trace gas effects on climate

The two primary objectives are to describe the new scientific challenges posed by the trace gas-climate problem and to summarize current strategies, and to make an assessment of the trace gas effects on troposphere-stratosphere temperature trends. Numerous reports on CO2-climate problems are examined with respect to climate modeling issues. The role of the oceans in governing the transient climate response to time varying CO2 concentrations is discussed.

Ramanathan, V.↗

The distribution of odd nitrogen in the lower stratosphere and possible perturbations caused by stratospheric air transport

In the lower stratosphere a significant production of odd nitrogen results from the reaction N2O + O(D-1) yields 2NO. Since the transport is relatively slow, odd nitrogen builds up with a maximum mixing ratio of 2 x 10 to the minus 8th power at 30 Km. Profiles of odd nitrogen, for different latitudes, winter and summer, are computed from one-dimensional transport models. Variations with latitude are small. Horizontal transport is therefore not believed to alter our results significantly. In order to evaluate the effect of odd nitrogen upon the ozone layer, NO(x) profiles are calculated. OH is here a key component, since it converts NO2 to HNO3. In the region where ozone is determined by chemistry rather than by transport (above 25 km), NO2 is found to be relatively abundant. The effect of stratospheric transport on the NO(x) distribution is shown to depend critically upon the height of emission. The effect increases by a factor of 5 or more for a change of flight level from 18 km to 23 km. This strong dependence should be duely considered when future stratospheric transport is discussed.

Isaksen, I. S. A.↗