Potential of TES to constrain estimates of continental sources of carbon monoxide
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
data assimilation satellite retrievals↗
Engineering topics
Hoffman, R. N.
Publications and source records attributed to Hoffman, R. N..
A Two-Dimensional Variational Analysis Method for NSCAT Ambiguity Removal: Methodology, Sensitivity, and Tuning
In this study, we apply a two-dimensional variational analysis method (2d-VAR) to select a wind solution from NASA Scatterometer (NSCAT) ambiguous winds. 2d-VAR determines a "best" gridded surface wind analysis by minimizing a cost function. The cost function measures the misfit to the observations, the background, and the filtering and dynamical constraints. The ambiguity closest in direction to the minimizing analysis is selected. 2d-VAR method, sensitivity and numerical behavior are described. 2d-VAR is compared to statistical interpolation (OI) by examining the response of both systems to a single ship observation and to a swath of unique scatterometer winds. 2d-VAR is used with both NSCAT ambiguities and NSCAT backscatter values. Results are roughly comparable. When the background field is poor, 2d-VAR ambiguity removal often selects low probability ambiguities. To avoid this behavior, an initial 2d-VAR analysis, using only the two most likely ambiguities, provides the first guess for an analysis using all the ambiguities or the backscatter data. 2d-VAR and median filter selected ambiguities usually agree. Both methods require horizontal consistency, so disagreements occur in clumps, or as linear features. In these cases, 2d-VAR ambiguities are often more meteorologically reasonable and more consistent with satellite imagery.
Hoffman, R. N.↗
The Impact of NASA Scatterometer Data on GEOS-2 Analyses and Forecasts
Experiments with the evolving GEOS-2 data assimilation system (DAS) delineate the impact of NASA scatterometer (NSCAT) data on ocean surface analysis and numerical weather prediction (NWP). Extensions and refinements of the DAS to account for the characteristics of NSCAT data produced better results than were obtained with the GEOS-1 DAS. The two key extensions are to increase the vertical influence of the surface wind data and to take proper account of the time difference between the observation and the analysis. The results of these experiments show that surface wind analyses are improved by NSCAT data. This is seen in subjective evaluation of synoptic cases and in forecast impacts. NSCAT data have a very significant positive impact on the GEOS-2 forecasts in the southern hemisphere (SH). In the northern hemisphere (NH) the overall statistics show a modest positive impact. However, on a case by case basis, in the NH, the impact is generally neutral or significantly positive. The GEOS-2 results are compared to results obtained using the GEOS-1 DAS and using the 1995 National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP95) DAS. The GEOS-2 control forecasts are more accurate than those of GEOS-1. All three impact experiments show a large positive impact in the SH. In the NH, both the GEOS-2 and the NCEP95 NSCAT impacts are positive while the GEOS-1 impact is neutral.
Atlas, R.↗
NWP Impact of Cloud Top and Boundary Layer Winds from a Satellite Borne Lidar: an Observing System Simulation Experiment
Observing systems simulation experiments (OSSE's) provide a powerful tool to assess the impact of proposed satellite borne observing systems on meteorological applications models. We describe the results of an OSSE conducted to assess the impact of data from a low power lidar wind sensor on the forecast accuracy of a global spectral numerical weather prediction (NWP) model, the Air Force Geophysics Laboratory Global Data Assimilation System. The instrument would be operating at near-infrared wavelengths thereby increasing the backscatter signal relative to comparable infrared lidar.
Isaacs, R. G.↗
Space-based surface wind vectors to aid understanding of air-sea interactions
A novel and unique ocean-surface wind data-set has been derived by combining the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program Special Sensor Microwave Imager data with additional conventional data. The variational analysis used generates a gridded surface wind analysis that minimizes an objective function measuring the misfit of the analysis to the background, the data, and certain a priori constraints. In the present case, the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts surface-wind analysis is used as the background.
Atlas, R.↗
A four-dimensional analysis exactly satisfying equations of motion
A four-dimensional analysis is applied to spectral nonlinear models of the atmosphere. The experiment reveals that the four-dimensional analysis errors are smaller than measurement errors, the method is stable in an assimilation cycle, and an accurate estimate of the velocity field is maintained using only temperature observations. It is concluded that the four-dimensional analyses display rapid initial error growth and therefore are better than ordinary forecasts from observations for only the first 24 hours.
Hoffman, R. N.↗
Application of lagged averaged forecasting to medium range forecasting
The lagged average forecast (LAF) method for predicting and compensating for forecast error growth is applied to two 100 day samples of 10 day forecasts at the 500 mb altitude for winter-summer 1980-81. The LAF parameterizes the forecast error growth in order to weight the forecast with regression calculations. A 5 day LAF forecast was generated for a 10 day forecast made with a 1681 d.o.f. model which produced predictions using a truncated spherical harmonic expansion. A 100 day data set was employed, with the first 90 days serving for LAF forecasts for the model forecast. Significant improvements were obtained in the model forecast when the LAF weightings were introduced into the model variables.
Dalcher, A.↗
Tuning of cloud parameterizations for radiative heating calculations in GCMs using satellite IR sounding data
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Louis, J.-F.↗
SASS wind ambiguity removal by direct minimization. II - Use of smoothness and dynamical constraints
A variational analysis method (VAM) is used to remove the ambiguity of the Seasat-A Satellite Scatterometer (SASS) winds. The VAM yields the best fit to the data by minimizing an objective function S which is a measure of the lack of fit. The SASS data are described and the function S and the analysis procedure are defined. Analyses of a single ship report which are analogous to Green's functions are presented. The analysis procedure is tuned and its sensitivity is described using the QE II storm. The procedure is then applied to a case study of September 6, 1978, south of Japan.
Hoffman, R. N.↗
Effect of high latitude filtering on NWP skill
The high latitude filtering techniques commonly employed in global grid point models to eliminate the high frequency waves associated with the convergence of meridians, can introduce serious distortions which ultimately affect the solution at all latitudes. Experiments completed so far with the 4 deg x 5 deg, 9-level GLAS Fourth Order Model indicate that the high latitude filter currently in operation affects only minimally its forecasting skill. In one case, however, the use of pressure gradient filter significantly improved the forecast. Three day forecasts with the pressure gradient and operational filters are compared as are 5-day forecasts with no filter.
Kalnay, E.↗
Lagged average forecasting, some operational considerations
The Lagged Average Forecast (LAF) method differs from the Monte Carlo Forecast (MCF) method in the definition of the ensemble of initial states which are used to generate the ensemble of forecasts. The LAF initial states are the current analysis and the forecasts made from previous analyses verifying the current time. Thus the LAF ensemble is composed of forecasts which are made by a regular operational system of numerical weather prediction and the LAF method is therefore operationally attractive. The application of the authors' previous ideas and results to an operational model requires the resolution of what might be called the degrees of freedom problem, i.e., how to obtain a homogeneous sample large enough to calculate stable statistics. It is suggested that this problem may be solved by carefully modeling the required statistics in terms of a small set of parameters and then estimating only these few parameters from the data. It is noted that there may be considerable information in each initial ensemble relating to the predictability of each particular case, and that this information may be incorporated in the model of the statistics.
Hoffman, R. N.↗
Objective scatterometer wind ambiguity removal using smoothness and dynamical constraints
In the present investigation, a variational analysis method (VAM) is used to remove the ambiguity of the Seasat-A Satellite Scatterometer (SASS) winds. At each SASS data point, two, three, or four wind vectors (termed ambiguities) are retrieved. It is pointed out that the VAM is basically a least squares method for fitting data. The problem may be nonlinear. The best fit to the data and constraints is obtained on the basis of a minimization of the objective function. The VAM was tested and tuned at 12 h GMT Sept. 10, 1978. Attention is given to a case study involving an intense cyclone centered south of Japan at 138 deg E.
Hoffman, R. N.↗
Lagged average forecasting, an alternative to Monte Carlo forecasting
A 'lagged average forecast' (LAF) model is developed for stochastic dynamic weather forecasting and used for predictions in comparison with the results of a Monte Carlo forecast (MCF). The technique involves the calculation of sample statistics from an ensemble of forecasts, with each ensemble member being an ordinary dynamical forecast (ODF). Initial conditions at a time lagging the start of the forecast period are used, with varying amounts of time for the lags. Forcing by asymmetric Newtonian heating of the lower layer is used in a two-layer, f-plane, highly truncated spectral model in a test forecasting run. Both the LAF and MCF are found to be more accurate than the ODF due to ensemble averaging with the MCF and the LAF. When a regression filter is introduced, all models become more accurate, with the LAF model giving the best results. The possibility of generating monthly or seasonal forecasts with the LAF is discussed.
Hoffman, R. N.↗
Three-dimensional inversion of satellite observed radiances A proposal
Fully three-dimensional temperature fields are obtained from observed satellite radiances through the use of variational methods which generalize the method of Wahba and Wendelberger (1980). This variational formalism allows a variety of different information types to contribute to the inversion process. Full use can be made of the horizontal smoothness of the temperature field in the calculation of three-dimensional retrievals. The present method facilitates the acquisition of maximum vertical resolution, accomplishes cloud effect filtering, and minimizes the effects of instrument noise, to yield horizontally coherent retrievals.
Hoffman, R. N.↗
SASS wind ambiguity removal by direct minimization
An objective analysis procedure is presented which combines Seasat-A satellite scatterometer (SASS) data with other available data on wind speeds by minimizing an objective function of gridded wind speed values. The functions are defined as the loss functions for the SASS velocity data, the forecast, the SASS velocity magnitude data, and conventional wind speed data. Only aliases closest to the analysis were included, and a method for improving the first guess while using a minimization technique and slowly changing the parameters of the problem is introduced. The model is employed to predict the wind field for the North Atlantic on Sept. 10, 1978. Dealiased SASS data is compared with available ship readings, showing good agreement between the SASS dealiased winds and the winds measured at the surface. Expansion of the model to take in low-level cloud measurements, pressure data, and convergence and cloud level data correlations is discussed.
Hoffman, R. N.↗
Alterations of the climate of a primitive equation model produced by filtering approximations and subsequent tuning and stochastic forcing
A comparison is made of the simulated climates of nonlinear models based on the primitive equations (PE), balance equations (BE), and quasi-geostrophic (QG) equations. The models and numerical procedures are identical in all possible respects. The models are highly truncated spectral forms of Lorenz's (1960) energy preserving two-layer model. Two means of making use of the information contained in the (presumed known) short-term prediction error statistics are investigated. An unrealistically high level of thermal forcing is used so that the model climates are sufficiently different to allow any improvements due to the empirical methods to be observed. The general tuning problem is outlined and the QG model is tuned, using data obtained from a PE model run, to minimize the mean squared short term prediction error.
Hoffman, R. N.↗