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Hoffert, M. I.

Publications and source records attributed to Hoffert, M. I..

Application of solar max ACRIM data to analyze solar-driven climatic variability on Earth

Terrestrial climatic effects associated with solar variability have been proposed for at least a century, but could not be assessed quantitatively owing to observational uncertainities in solar flux variations. Measurements from 1980 to 1984 by the Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (ACRIM), capable of resolving fluctuations above the sensible atmosphere less than 0.1% of the solar constant, permit direct albeit preliminary assessments of solar forcing effects on global temperatures during this period. The global temperature response to ACRIM-measured fluctuations was computed from 1980 to 1985 using the NYU transient climate model including thermal inertia effects of the world ocean; and compared the results with observations of recent temperature trends. Monthly mean ACRIM-driven global surface temperature fluctuations computed with the climate model are an order of magnitude smaller, of order 0.01 C. In constrast, global mean surface temperature observations indicate an approx. 0.1 C increase during this period. Solar variability is therefore likely to have been a minor factor in global climate change during this period compared with variations in atmospheric albedo, greenhouse gases and internal self-inducedoscillations. It was not possible to extend the applicability of the measured flux variations to longer periods since a possible correlation of luminosity with solar annual activity is not supported by statistical analysis. The continuous monitoring of solar flux by satellite-based instruments over timescales of 20 years or more comparable to timescales for thermal relaxation of the oceans and of the solar cycle itself is needed to resolve the question of long-term solar variation effects on climate.

Hoffert, M. I.

The Martian climate and energy balance models with CO2/H2O atmospheres

The analysis begins with a seasonal energy balance model (EBM) for Mars. This is used to compute surface temperature versus x = sin(latitude) and time over the seasonal cycle. The core model also computes the evolving boundaries of the CO2 icecaps, net sublimational/condensation rates, and the resulting seasonal pressure wave. Model results are compared with surface temperature and pressure history data at Viking lander sites, indicating fairly good agreement when meridional heat transport is represented by a thermal diffusion coefficient D approx. 0.015 W/sq. m/K. Condensational wind distributions are also computed. An analytic model of Martian wind circulation is then proposed, as an extension of the EMB, which incorporates vertical wind profiles containing an x-dependent function evaluated by substitution in the equation defining the diffusion coefficient. This leads to a parameterization of D(x) and of the meridional circulation which recovers the high surface winds predicted by dynamic Mars atmosphere models (approx. 10 m/sec). Peak diffusion coefficients, D approx. 0.6 w/sq m/K, are found over strong Hadley zones - some 40 times larger than those of high-latitude baroclinic eddies. When the wind parameterization is used to find streamline patterns over Martian seasons, the resulting picture shows overturning hemispheric Hadley cells crossing the equator during solstices, and attaining peak intensities during the south summer dust storm season, while condensational winds are most important near the polar caps.

Hoffert, M. I.

Application of solar max ACRIM data to analyze solar-driven climatic variability on Earth

Langley, in the late nineteenth century, attempted to measure solar irradiance over an extended period of time in order to detect changes. The problem with this and other early attempts was that ground based measurements are not sufficiently accurate to measure solar irradiance fluctuations, which are on the order of 0.1%. It was not until the Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (ACRIM) experiment on the NASA Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) was launched in 1980 that continuous data with precision 0.1% was available.

Hoffert, M. I.

The Martian climate: Energy balance models with CO2/H2O atmospheres

Coupled equations are developed for mass and heat transport in a seasonal Mars model with condensation and sublimation of CO2 at the polar caps. Topics covered include physical considerations of planetary as mass and energy balance; effects of phase changes at the surface on mass and heat flux; atmospheric transport and governing equations; and numerical analysis.

Hoffert, M. I.

The Martian climate: Energy balance models with CO2/H2O atmospheres

Progress in the development of a multi-reservoir, time dependent energy balance climate model for Mars driven by prescribed insolation at the top of the atmosphere is reported. The first approximately half-year of the program was devoted to assembling and testing components of the full model. Specific accomplishments were made on a longwave radiation code, coupling seasonal solar input to a ground temperature simulation, and conceptualizing an approach to modeling the seasonal pressure waves that develop in the Martian atmosphere as a result of sublimation and condensation of CO2 in polar regions.

Hoffert, M. I.

Liquid water on Mars - An energy balance climate model for CO2/H2O atmospheres

A simple climatic model is developed for a Mars atmosphere containing CO2 and sufficient liquid water to account for the observed hydrologic surface features by the existence of a CO2/H2O greenhouse effect. A latitude-resolved climate model originally devised for terrestrial climate studies is applied to Martian conditions, with the difference between absorbed solar flux and emitted long-wave flux to space per unit area attributed to the divergence of the meridional heat flux and the poleward heat flux assumed to equal the atmospheric eddy heat flux. The global mean energy balance is calculated as a function of atmospheric pressure to assess the CO2/H2O greenhouse liquid water hypothesis, and some latitude-resolved cases are examined in detail in order to clarify the role of atmospheric transport and temperature-albedo feedback. It is shown that the combined CO2/H2O greenhouse at plausible early surface pressures may account for climates hot enough to support a hydrological cycle and running water at present-day insolation and visible albedo levels.

Hoffert, M. I.

A scheme for computing surface fluxes from mean flow observations

A computational method for estimating turbulent surface stress, sensible heat flux, and humidity flux from mean velocity, temperature, and humidity at a single height in the atmospheric surface layer is presented. The method is based on coupling a Monin-Obukhov similarity profile to a 'force-restore' formulation for the evolution of surface soil temperature to yield the local values of shear stress, heat flux, and surface temperature. In addition to reference-level mean flow properties, the parameters required to implement this method are the thermal heat capacity of the soil, the surface aerodynamic roughness, latitude, solar declination, surface albedo, surface emissivity, and atmospheric transmissivity. Sample calculations are presented for (1) constant atmospheric forcing at the reference level, and (2) variable atmospheric forcing corresponding to Kahle's (1977) measurements of windspeed, air temperature, and radiometer soil surface temperature under dry vegetatively sparse conditions in the Mohave Desert, Calif.

Hoffert, M. I.

A scheme for computing surface layer turbulent fluxes from mean flow surface observations

A physical model and computational scheme are developed for generating turbulent surface stress, sensible heat flux and humidity flux from mean velocity, temperature and humidity at some fixed height in the atmospheric surface layer, where conditions at this reference level are presumed known from observations or the evolving state of a numerical atmospheric circulation model. The method is based on coupling the Monin-Obukov surface layer similarity profiles which include buoyant stability effects on mean velocity, temperature and humidity to a force-restore formulation for the evolution of surface soil temperature to yield the local values of shear stress, heat flux and surface temperature. A self-contained formulation is presented including parameterizations for solar and infrared radiant fluxes at the surface. Additional parameters needed to implement the scheme are the thermal heat capacity of the soil per unit surface area, surface aerodynamic roughness, latitude, solar declination, surface albedo, surface emissivity and atmospheric transmissivity to solar radiation.

Hoffert, M. I.

Feasibility of an orbital simulator of stratospheric photochemistry

It is proposed that a stratospheric photochemistry simulator could be created in sun-synchronous orbit, so that diffusion and photochemistry could be decoupled and uncertainties in photochemical reaction rates could be substantially reduced. The proposed test chamber is described, and it is suggested that the technology of superpressure balloons seems to be the best short-term solution to the construction of the proposed facility. Both unreinforced polyester films and gelatin films are considered as candidate chamber coatings. It is noted that the experiments can be performed early in the space-manufacturing era and that at least three dedicated Shuttle launches will be required to establish the proposed facility.

Matloff, G. L.

A computationally fast one-dimensional diffusion-photochemistry model of SST wakes

A computational technique applicable to analysis of supersonic transport (SST) wake photochemistry and diffusion is presented. Sensitivity studies of SST effluent effects upon ozone depletion are facilitated by the computational rapidity of the method. The article compares results from other studies and predictions of some variables related to global NOx input. Results indicate that the NO/NO2 ratio in an SST wake at photochemical equilibrium is a sensitive function of photolysis rates.

Matloff, G. L.

Similarity theory of the buoyantly interactive planetary boundary layer with entrainment

A similarity model is developed for the vertical profiles of turbulent flow variables in an entraining turbulent boundary layer of arbitrary buoyant stability. In the general formulation the vertical profiles, internal rotation of the velocity vector, discontinuities or jumps at a capping inversion and bulk aerodynamic coefficients of the boundary layer are given by solutions to a system of ordinary differential equations in the similarity variable. To close the system, a formulation for buoyantly interactive eddy diffusivity in the boundary layer is introduced which recovers Monin-Obukhov similarity near the surface and incorporates a hypothesis accounting for the observed variation of mixing length throughout the boundary layer. The model is tested in simplified versions which depend only on roughness, surface buoyancy, and Coriolis effects by comparison with planetary-boundary-layer wind- and temperature-profile observations, measurements of flat-plate boundary layers in a thermally stratified wind tunnel and observations of profiles of terms in the turbulent kinetic-energy budget of convective planetary boundary layers. On balance, the simplified model reproduced the trend of these various observations and experiments reasonably well, suggesting that the full similarity formulation be pursued further.

Hoffert, M. I.

Stratospheric ozone - Fragile shield

Atmospheric models that have been used in major studies on the possible impact of SST exhausts and Freons on stratospheric ozone are discussed and compared. An overview is given of ozone-reduction estimates that they produce, together with an assessment of possible effects of atmospheric testing of thermonuclear bombs in an attempt to find direct observational evidence for ozone depletion resulting from human activities. It is concluded that clear validation of atmospheric-model predictions is lacking.

Hoffert, M. I.

A chemical model of the troposphere and stratosphere

A time-dependent, one-dimensional model of the coupled chemistry and vertical mixing of the atmosphere is used to compute the distribution for many atmospheric constituents of the troposphere and stratosphere. The model treats the photochemistry of the carbon-hydrogen-oxygen-nitrogen system and is (with the exception of H2O) self-consistent in the sense of requiring no assumptions regarding minor constituent distributions.

Stewart, R. W.