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Hazelrigg, G. A., Jr.

Publications and source records attributed to Hazelrigg, G. A., Jr..

16 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1979

A study of the cost-effective markets for new technology agricultural aircraft

A previously developed data base was used to estimate the regional and total U.S. cost-effective markets for a new technology agricultural aircraft as incorporating features which could result from NASA-sponsored aerial applications research. The results show that the long-term market penetration of a new technology aircraft would be near 3,000 aircraft. This market penetration would be attained in approximately 20 years. Annual sales would be about 200 aircraft after 5 to 6 years of introduction. The net present value of cost savings benefit which this aircraft would yield (measured on an infinite horizon basis) would be about $35 million counted at a 10 percent discount rate and $120 million at a 5 percent discount rate. At both discount rates the present value of cost savings exceeds the present value of research and development (R&D) costs estimated for the development of the technology base needed for the proposed aircraft. These results are quite conservative as they have been derived neglecting future growth in the agricultural aviation industry, which has been averaging about 12 percent per year over the past several years.

Hazelrigg, G. A., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Assessment of economic factors affecting the satellite power system. Volume 1: System cost factors

The factors relevant to SPS costing and selection of preferred SPS satellite configurations were studied. The issues discussed are: (1) consideration of economic factors in the SPS system that relate to selection of SPS satellite configuration; (2) analysis of the proper rate of interest for use in SPS system definition studies; and (3) the impacts of differential inflation on SPS system definition costing procedures. A cost-risk comparison of the SPS satellite configurations showed a significant difference in the levelized cost of power from them. It is concluded, that this difference is the result more of differences in the procedures for assessing costs rather than in the satellite technologies required or of any advantages of one satellite configuration over the other. Analysis of the proper rate of interest for use in SPS system is 4 percent. The major item of differential inflation to be expected over this period of time is the real cost of labor. This cost is likely to double between today and the period of SPS construction.

Hazelrigg, G. A., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Costing the satellite power system

The paper presents a methodology for satellite power system costing, places approximate limits on the accuracy possible in cost estimates made at this time, and outlines the use of probabilistic cost information in support of the decision-making process. Reasons for using probabilistic costing or risk analysis procedures instead of standard deterministic costing procedures are considered. Components of cost, costing estimating relationships, grass roots costing, and risk analysis are discussed. Risk analysis using a Monte Carlo simulation model is used to estimate future costs.

Hazelrigg, G. A., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Political and legal implications of developing and operating a satellite power system

A number of political and legal implications of developing and operating a satellite power system (SPS) are identified and studied in this report. These include the vulnerability of SPS to actions of adversaries, communications impacts, the legality of an SPS in orbit including on-orbit military protection, alleviation of political concerns about deployment and operation of SPS, programmatic planning for SPS and the interaction of SPS with federal regulatory agencies and major departments. In comparing SPS to terrestrial power stations, it is seen that the political problems are neither clearly larger nor clearly smaller--they are clearly different and they are international in nature. If SPS is to become a reality these problems must be dealt with. Five major issues are identified. These must be resolved in order to obtain international acceptance of SPS. However, this study has found no insurmountable obstacles that would clearly prohibit the deployment, operation and protection of an SPS fleet.

Hazelrigg, G. A., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1977

The benefits of improved technologies in agricultural aviation

The results are present for a study of the economic benefits attributed to a variety of potential technological improvements in agricultural aviation. Part 1 gives a general description of the ag-air industry and discusses the information used in the data base to estimate the potential benefits from technological improvements. Part 2 presents the benefit estimates and provides a quantitative basis for the estimates in each area study. Part 3 is a bibliography of references relating to this study.

Lietzke, K.↗
NASA NTRS1977

The economic viability of pursuing a space power system concept

The development of a space power system requires no fundamental technological breakthroughs. There are, however, uncertainties regarding the degree to which necessary developments can be achieved or exceeded. An analysis is conducted concerning the implementation of a 5000 MW space-based solar power system based on photovoltaic conversion of solar energy to electrical energy. The solar array is about 13 km long and 5 km wide. Placed in geosynchronous orbit, it provides power to the earth for 30 years. Attention is given to the economic feasibility of a space power system, a risk analysis for space power systems, and the use of the presented methodology for comparing alternative technology development programs.

Hazelrigg, G. A., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Satellite solar power - Will it pay off

A cost analysis is presented for front-end investments required for the development of a satellite solar power system. The methodology used makes use of risk analysis techniques to quantify the present state of knowledge relevant to the construction and operation of a satellite solar power station 20 years in the future. Results are used to evaluate the 'expected value' of a three-year research program providing additional information which will be used as a basis for a decision to either continue development of the concept at an increasing funding level or to terminate or drastically alter the program. The program is costed phase by phase, and a decision tree is constructed. The estimated probability of success for the research and studies phase is .540. The expected value of a program leading to the construction of 120 systems at a rate of four per year is 12.433 billion dollars.

Hazelrigg, G. A., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Space power system design and development from an economic point of view

The concept of a satellite solar power system offers a feasible, but unproven, long-range energy alternative. While the basic physics of these systems is understood, many developments are necessary in order to reduce the system cost to the point of being cost-competitive with alternative energy sources. Thus, a substantial technology advancement and verification program, plus test and demonstration satellite programs are necessary before a full-scale satellite can be designed and built. It is important to properly identify those elements of the technology that should be subject to development efforts, the goals of the corresponding development programs and the appropriate funding levels and schedules. Systems studies and designs play a major role in rationally formulating a development program. This paper uses an economic approach to place these studies into a framework for formulating a viable satellite solar power system development plan.

Hazelrigg, G. A., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1976

A decision model for planetary missions

Many techniques developed for the solution of problems in economics and operations research are directly applicable to problems involving engineering trade-offs. This paper investigates the use of utility theory for decision making in planetary exploration space missions. A decision model is derived that accounts for the objectives of the mission - science - the cost of flying the mission and the risk of mission failure. A simulation methodology for obtaining the probability distribution of science value and costs as a function spacecraft and mission design is presented and an example application of the decision methodology is given for various potential alternatives in a comet Encke mission.

Hazelrigg, G. A., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Space-based solar power conversion and delivery systems study. Volume 1: Executive summary

The technical and economic aspects of satellite solar power systems are presented with a focus on the current configuration 5000 MW system. The technical studies include analyses of the orbital system structures, control and stationkeeping, and the formulation of program plans and costs for input to the economic analyses. The economic analyses centered about the development and use of a risk analysis model for a system cost assessment, identification of critical issues and technologies, and to provide information for programmatic decision making. A preliminary economic examination of some utility interface issues is included. Under the present state-of-knowledge, it is possible to formulate a program plan for the development of a satellite solar power system that can be economically justified. The key area of technological uncertainty is man's ability to fabricate and assemble large structures in space.

Hazelrigg, G. A., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Space-based solar power conversion and delivery systems study. Volume 3: Economic analysis of space-based solar power systems

A variety of economic and programmatic issues are discussed concerning the development and deployment of a fleet of space-based solar power satellites (SSPS). The costs, uncertainties and risks associated with the current photovoltaic SSPS configuration, and with issues affecting the development of an economically viable SSPS development program are analyzed. The desirability of a low earth orbit (LEO) demonstration satellite and a geosynchronous (GEO) pilot satellite is examined and critical technology areas are identified. In addition, a preliminary examination of utility interface issues is reported. The main focus of the effort reported is the development of SSPS unit production, and operation and maintenance cost models suitable for incorporation into a risk assessment (Monte Carlo) model (RAM). It is shown that the key technology area deals with the productivity of man in space, not, as might be expected, with some hardware component technology.

Hazelrigg, G. A., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1974

The Economic Value of Remote Sensing of Earth Resources from Space: An ERTS Overview and the Value of Continuity of Service. Volume 1: Summary

An overview of the ERTS program is given to determine the magnitude of the benefits that can be reasonably expected to flow from an Earth Resources Survey (ERS) Program, and to assess the benefits foregone in the event of a one or two-year gap in ERS services. An independent evaluation of the benefits attributable to ERS-derived information in key application areas is presented. These include two case studies in agriculture-distribution, production and import/export, and one study in water management. The cost-effectiveness of satellites in an ERS system is studied by means of a land cover case study. The annual benefits achieveable from an ERS system are measured by the in-depth case studies to be in the range of $430 to $746 million. Benefits foregone in the event of a one-year gap in ERS service are estimated to be $147 to $220 million and $274 to $420 million for a two-year gap in ERS service.

Hazelrigg, G. A., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1974

The economic value of remote sensing by satellite: An ERTS overview and the value of continuity of service. Volume 2: Source document

The economic value of an ERS system with a technical capability similar to ERTS, allowing for increased coverage obtained through the use of multiple active satellites in orbit is presented. A detailed breakdown of the benefits achievable from an ERS system is given and a methodology for their estimation is established. The ECON case studies in agriculture, water use, and land cover are described along with the current ERTS system. The cost for a projected ERS system is given.

Andrews, J.↗