Engineering topics

Hazel Bain

Publications and source records attributed to Hazel Bain.

3 records

NASA NTRS2022

Advancing Solar Energetic Particle Forecasting

With growing interest from the aviation and satellite industries, and for NASA’s upcoming Artemis lunar missions, the need for improved scientific understanding and accurate forecasting of solar energetic particle events has never been stronger. In this paper we discuss the observational, validation and model transition support required to achieve these goals. Well-calibrated, high-quality energetic electron, proton, and ion measurements are essential. Expansions to the fields of view offered by current X-ray, extreme ultraviolet and coronagraph instruments, to obtain increased coverage of the solar corona and heliosphere, from vantage points off the Sun-Earth line, are desired for model input. New observations of suprathermal particles are needed to characterize seed particle distributions and low latency space-based observations of solar radio emissions are also desired. Together, this observational suite should offer high cadence, low latency, reliable and accurate space weather data streams. Consistent, extensive and quantitative model validation is required to assess scientific advancements and pave the way for models transitioning to real-time forecast operations. Model performance and skill should be compared to observations and to current operational forecasting baselines. Finally, resources are required to support the significant effort of transitioning mature models into forecast operations.

solar energetic particles↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

SPHINX: An SEP Model Validation Infrastructure developed through Community Challenges and the SEP Scoreboards

Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events are interesting from a scientific perspective as they are the product of a broad set of physical processes from the corona out through the extent of the heliosphere, and provide insight into processes of particle acceleration and transport that are widely applicable in astrophysics. From the operations perspective, SEP events pose a radiation hazard for aviation, electronics in space, and human space exploration, in particular for missions outside of the Earth’s protective magnetosphere including to the Moon and Mars (Whitman et al 2022). For these reasons, SEP modelers have developed a rich and diverse set of models with a wide variety of aims. Some models probe the basic physics at the heart of particle acceleration and transport. Others produce fast statistical forecasts or employ disruptive new techniques like Machine Learning with the goal to assist end users in making operational decisions. To enable a consistent and quantitative understanding of SEP model performance, a generalized, automated validation infrastructure, called SPHINX, is being developed at NASA SRAG in close collaboration with NASA CCMC, NASA M2M, NOAA SWPC, and BIRA-IASB. This infrastructure has been built up through a multi-year community challenge. Starting in 2018 at the SHINE workshop, an effort was launched through SHINE, ISWAT, and ESWW to encourage quantitative, comprehensive, and consistent validation of SEP models. This effort has defined a set of challenge SEP events with the aim of generating quantitative comparisons between forecasts and observations and a set of challenge “non-events” to assess false alarms. In 2023, these challenge lists have been extended to statistically significant numbers with a prescribed set of rules for producing forecasts and supported through the dedicated SEPVAL working meetings. The participation of the research community has allowed the infrastructure to validate all the types of outputs being produced by SEP models. In parallel, the SPHINX code is being applied to real time forecasts submitted to the SEP Scoreboards, ensuring that the validation infrastructure can interpret forecasts produced in an operational scenario and provide metrics meaningful for operations. Upon completion, SPHINX and its interactive user interface, SPHINX-Web, will be made available for public use.

space weather↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Multi-Year Effort to Forward the Validation of Solar Energetic Particle Prediction Models

To enable a consistent and quantitative understanding of solar energetic particle (SEP) model performance, a generalized, automated validation infrastructure, called SPHINX, is being developed by the NASA Space Radiation Analysis Group (SRAG) in close collaboration with the NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), NASA Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office (M2M), NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), and the Royal Belgian Institute for Space Aeronomy (BIRA-IASB). SPHINX is being developed to evaluate the SEP Scoreboards (https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/scoreboards/sep/), which are being used by SRAG to support space radiation operations for Mission Control. SPHINX is also being developed through a series of community challenges, which have defined a list of challenge events and a prescribed set of rules of participation. The participation of the research community has enabled the generalization of the infrastructure to validate all the types of outputs being produced by SEP models and fully exercised the framework. The most recent challenge includes 30 SEP events and 33 non-event (quiet) periods and was supported by two dedicated SEPVAL working meetings, one in the US and one in Europe (https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/community-workshops/ccmc-sepval-2023/). Here, we describe SPHINX and its interactive user interface, SPHINX-VIVID, which will eventually be made available for public use. We present selected results, outcomes, and lessons learned from the SEPVAL working meetings and validation results of the SEP Scoreboards from 2019 to present. These efforts aim to define a set of community standards for SEP model validation and describe the current state-of-the-art of SEP model performance.

Kathryn Whitman↗