Engineering topics

Hathaway, David H.

Publications and source records attributed to Hathaway, David H..

At least 55 records · Page 3

NASA NTRS2005

A Comparison of Rome Observatory Sunspot Area and Sunspot Number Determinations With International Measures, 1958-1998

Two changes in recording the sunspot record have occurred in recent years. First, in 1976, the longer-than-100-yr daily photographic record of the Royal Greenwich Observatory (RGO), used for determination of numbers and positions of sunspot groups and sunspot areas ended, and second, at the end of 1980, after more than 130 years, Zurich s Swiss Federal Observatory stopped providing daily sunspot numbers. To extend the sunspot record beyond 1976, use of United States Air Force/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (USAF/NOAA) sunspot drawing observations from the Solar Optical Observing Network began in 1977, and the combined record of sunspot activity from RGO/USAF/NOAA was made accessible at http://science.nasa.gov/ssl/PAD/SOLAR/greenwch.htm. Also, in 1981, the task of providing daily sunspot numbers was taken up by the Royal Observatory of Belgium s Solar Influences and Data analysis Center, and the combined Zurich/International sunspot number database was made available at http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3. In this study, Rome Observatory 1958-1998 photographic records of sunspot areas, numbers of groups, and derived sunspot numbers are compared against same-day international values to determine relative behaviors and to evaluate whether any potential changes might have been introduced in the overall sunspot record, due to the aforementioned changes.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

NASA NTRS2005

On the Relation Between Spotless Days and the Sunspot Cycle

Spotless days are examined as a predictor for the size and timing of a sunspot cycle. For cycles 16-23 the first spotless day for a new cycle, which occurs during the decline of the old cycle, is found to precede minimum amplitude for the new cycle by about approximately equal to 34 mo, having a range of 25-40 mo. Reports indicate that the first spotless day for cycle 24 occurred in January 2004, suggesting that minimum amplitude for cycle 24 should be expected before April 2007, probably sometime during the latter half of 2006. If true, then cycle 23 will be classified as a cycle of shorter period, inferring further that cycle 24 likely will be a cycle of larger than average minimum and maximum amplitudes and faster than average rise, peaking sometime in 2010.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Determining the Sun's Deep Meridional Flow Speed Using Active Latitude Drift Rates Since 1874

Dynamo models that incorporate a deep meridional return flow indicate that this flow regulates both the period and the amplitude of the sunspot cycle. We recently examined the equatorward drift of the active latitudes (as given by the centroid of the sunspot areas in each hemisphere) and found evidence supporting this view. In those studies we fit the equatorward drift in each hemisphere for each sunspot cycle with a simple parabola - giving us a drift rate and its deceleration for each hemisphere/cycle. Here we analyze the same data (the Royal Greenwich Observatory/JSAF/NOAA daily active region summaries) to determine the drift rates in each hemisphere on a yearly basis (rotation-by- rotation measurements smoothed to remove high frequencies) and fit them with a simple model for the meridional flow that provides the meridional flow speed as a function of latitude and time from 1874 to 2005. These flow speeds can be used to test dynamo models - some of which have predictive capabilities.

Hathaway, David H.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Maunder's Butterfly Diagram in the 21st Century

E. Walter Maunder created his first "Butterfly Diagram" showing the equatorward drift of the sunspot latitudes over the course of each of two solar cycles in 1903. This diagram was constructed from data obtained through the Royal Greenwich Observatory (RGO) starting in 1874. The RGO continued to acquire data up until 1976. Fortunately, the US Air Force (USAF) and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have continued to acquire similar data since that time. This combined RGO/USAF/NOAA dataset on sunspot group positions and areas now extends virtually unbroken from the 19th century to the 21st century. The data represented in the Butterfly Diagram contain a wealth of information about solar activity and the solar cycle. Solar activity (as represented by the sunspots) appears at mid-latitudes at the start of each cycle. The bands of activity spread in each hemisphere and then drift toward the equator as the cycle progresses. Although the equator itself tends to be avoided, the spread of activity reaches the equator at about the time of cycle maximum. The cycles overlap at minimum with old cycle spots appearing near the equator while new cycle spots emerge in the mid-latitudes. Large amplitude cycles tend to have activity starting at higher latitudes with the activity spreading to higher latitudes as well. Large amplitude cycles also tend to be preceded by earlier cycles with faster drift rates. These drift rates may be tied to the Sun s meridional circulation - a component in many dynamo theories for the origin of the sunspot cycle. The Butterfly Diagram must be reproduced in any successful dynamo model for the Sun.

Hathaway, David H.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Decay of Solar Active Regions

We examine the record of sunspot group areas observed over a period of 100 years to determine the rate of decay of solar active regions. We exclude observations of groups when they are more than 60deg in longitude from the central meridian and only include data when at least three days of observations are available following the date of maximum area for a spot group's disk passage. This leaves data for some 24,000 observations of active region decay. We find that the decay rate is a constant 20 microHem/day for spots smaller than about 200 microHem (about the size of a supergranule). This decay rate increases linearly to about 90 microHem/day for spots with areas of 1000 microHem. We find no evidence for significant variations in active region decay from one solar cycle to another. However, we do find that the decay rate is slower at lower latitudes. This gives a slower decay rate during the declining phase of sunspot cycles.

Hathaway, David H.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Application of the Maximum Amplitude-Early Rise Correlation to Cycle 23

On the basis of the maximum amplitude-early rise correlation, cycle 23 could have been predicted to be about the size of the mean cycle as early as 12 mo following cycle minimum. Indeed, estimates for the size of cycle 23 throughout its rise consistently suggested a maximum amplitude that would not differ appreciably from the mean cycle, contrary to predictions based on precursor information. Because cycle 23 s average slope during the rising portion of the solar cycle measured 2.4, computed as the difference between the conventional maximum (120.8) and minimum (8) amplitudes divided by the ascent duration in months (47), statistically speaking, it should be a cycle of shorter period. Hence, conventional sunspot minimum for cycle 24 should occur before December 2006, probably near July 2006 (+/-4 mo). However, if cycle 23 proves to be a statistical outlier, then conventional sunspot minimum for cycle 24 would be delayed until after July 2007, probably near December 2007 (+/-4 mo). In anticipation of cycle 24, a chart and table are provided for easy monitoring of the nearness and size of its maximum amplitude once onset has occurred (with respect to the mean cycle and using the updated maximum amplitude-early rise relationship).

Willson, Robert M.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Erratum: Evidence That a Deep Meridional Flow Sets the Sunspot Cycle Period

An error was made in entering the data. This changes the results concerning the length of the time lag between the variations in the meridional flow speed and those in the cycle amplitude. The final paragraph on page 667 should read: Finally, we study the relationship between the drift velocities and the amplitudes of the hemisphere/cycles. We compare the drift velocity at the maximum of the cycle to the amplitude of that cycle for that hemisphere. There is a positive (0.5) and significant (95%) correlation between the two. However, an even stronger relationship is found between the drift velocity and the amplitude of the N + 2 cycle. The correlation is stronger (0.7) and more significant (99%), as shown. This relationship is suggestive of a "memory" in the solar cycle, again a property of dynamo models that use meridional circulation. Indeed, the two-cycle lag is precisely the relationship found by Charbonneau & Dikpati. This behavior is, however, more difficult to interpret, and we elaborate on this in the next section. In either case, these correlations only explain part of the variance in cycle amplitude (25% for the current cycle and 50% for the N + 2 cycle). Obviously, other mechanisms, such as variations in the gradient in the rotation rate, also contribute to the cycle amplitude variations. Our investigation of possible connections between drift rates and the amplitudes of the N + 1 and N + 3 cycles gives no significant correlations at these alternative time lags.

Hathaway, David H.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Modern Solar Mysteries

100 years ago we thought that the Sun and stars shone as a result of slow gravitational contraction over a few tens of millions of years - putting astronomers at odds with geologists who claimed that the Earth was much, much older. That mystery was solved in the 1920s and 30s with the discovery of nuclear energy (proving that the geologists had it right all along). Other scientific mysteries concerning the Sun have come and gone but three major mysteries remain: 1) How does the Sun produce sunspots with an 11-year cycle? 2) What produces the huge explosions that result in solar flares, prominence eruptions, and coronal mass ejections? and 3) Why is the Sun's outer atmosphere, the corona, so darned hot? Recent progress in solar astronomy reveals a single key to understanding all three of these mysteries.

Hathaway, David H.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Supergranule Diffusion and Active Region Decay

Models of the Sun's magnetic dynamo include turbulent diffusion to parameterize the effects of convective motions on the evolution of the Sun's magnetic field. Supergranules are known to dominate the evolution of the surface magnetic field structure as evidenced by the structure of both the active and quiet magnetic network. However, estimates for the dif hivity attributed to su perymules differ by an order of magnitude from about 100 km sup2/s to more than 1000 km sup2/s. We examine this question of the e i v i t y using three merent approaches. 1) We study the decay of more than 30,000 active regions by determining the rate of change in the sunspot area of each active region from day-to-day. 2) We study the decay of a single isolated active region near the time of solar minimum by examining the magnetic field evolution over five solar rotations fiom SOHOMDI magnetograms obtained at 96-minute intervals. 3) We study the characteristics of supergranules that influence the estimates of their diffusive properties - flow speeds and lifetimes as functions of size - fiom SOHO/MDI Dopplergrams.

Hathaway, David H.↗

NASA NTRS2004

What the Sunspot Record Tells Us About Space Climate

The records concerning the number, sizes, and positions of sunspots provide a direct means of characterizing solar activity over nearly 400 years. Sunspot numbers are strongly correlated with modem measures of solar activity including: 10.7-cm radio flux, total irradiance, x-ray flares, sunspot area, the baseline level of geomagnetic activity, and the flux of galactic cosmic rays. The Group Sunspot Number provides information on 27 sunspot cycles, far more than any of the modem measures of solar activity, and enough to provide important details about long-term variations in solar activity or Space Climate. The sunspot record shows: 1) sunspot cycles have periods of 131 plus or minus 14 months with a normal distribution; 2) sunspot cycles are asymmetric with a fast rise and slow decline; 3) the rise time from minimum to maximum decreases with cycle amplitude; 4) large amplitude cycles are preceded by short period cycles; 5 ) large amplitude cycles are preceded by high minima; 6) although the two hemispheres remain linked in phase, there are significant asymmetries in the activity in each hemisphere; 7) the rate at which the active latitudes drift toward the equator is anti-correlated with the cycle period, 8) the rate at which the active latitudes drift toward the equator is positively correlated with the amplitude of the cycle after the next; 9) there has been a significant secular increase in the amplitudes of the sunspot cycles since the end of the Maunder Minimum (1715); and 10) there is weak evidence for a quasi-periodic variation in the sunspot cycle amplitudes with a period of about 90 years. These characteristics indicate that the next solar cycle should have a maximum smoothed sunspot number of about 1.45 plus or minus 30 in 2010 while the following cycle should have a maximum of about 70 plus or minus 30 in 2023.

Hathaway, David H.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Gauging the Nearness and Size of Cycle Maximum

A simple method for monitoring the nearness and size of conventional cycle maximum for an ongoing sunspot cycle is examined. The method uses the observed maximum daily value and the maximum monthly mean value of international sunspot number and the maximum value of the 2-mo moving average of monthly mean sunspot number to effect the estimation. For cycle 23, a maximum daily value of 246, a maximum monthly mean of 170.1, and a maximum 2-mo moving average of 148.9 were each observed in July 2000. Taken together, these values strongly suggest that conventional maximum amplitude for cycle 23 would be approx. 124.5, occurring near July 2002 +/-5 mo, very close to the now well-established conventional maximum amplitude and occurrence date for cycle 23-120.8 in April 2000.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Video Image Stabilization and Registration

A method of stabilizing and registering a video image in multiple video fields of a video sequence provides accurate determination of the image change in magnification, rotation and translation between video fields, so that the video fields may be accurately corrected for these changes in the image in the video sequence. In a described embodiment, a key area of a key video field is selected which contains an image which it is desired to stabilize in a video sequence. The key area is subdivided into nested pixel blocks and the translation of each of the pixel blocks from the key video field to a new video field is determined as a precursor to determining change in magnification, rotation and translation of the image from the key video field to the new video field.

Hathaway, David H.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Beyond Solar-B: MTRAP, the Magnetic Transition Region Probe

The next generation of solar missions will reveal and measure fine-scale solar magnetic fields and their effects in the solar atmosphere at heights, small scales, sensitivities, and fields of view well beyond the reach of Solar-B. The necessity for, and potential of, such observations for understanding solar magnetic fields, their generation in and below the photosphere, and their control of the solar atmosphere and heliosphere, were the focus of a science definition workshop, 'High-Resolution Solar Magnetography from Space: Beyond Solar-B,' held in Huntsville Alabama in April 2001. Forty internationally prominent scientists active in solar research involving fine-scale solar magnetism participated in this Workshop and reached consensus that the key science objective to be pursued beyond Solar-B is a physical understanding of the fine-scale magnetic structure and activity in the magnetic transition region, defined as the region between the photosphere and corona where neither the plasma nor the magnetic field strongly dominates the other. The observational objective requires high cadence (less than 10s) vector magnetic field maps, and spatially resolved spectra from the IR, visible, vacuum UV, to the EUV at high resolution (less than 50km) over a large FOV (approximately 140,000 km). A polarimetric resolution of one part in ten thousand is required to measure transverse magnetic fields of less than 30G. The latest SEC Roadmap includes a mission identified as MTRAP to meet these requirements. Enabling technology development requirements include large, lightweight, reflecting optics, large format sensors (16K x 16K pixels) with high QE at 150 nm, and extendable spacecraft structures. The Science Organizing Committee of the Beyond Solar-B Workshop recommends that: (1) Science and Technology Definition Teams should be established in FY04 to finalize the science requirements and to define technology development efforts needed to ensure the practicality of MTRAP's observational goals; (2) The necessary technology development funding should be included in Code S budgets for FY06 and beyond to prepare MTRAP for a new start no later than the nominal end of the Solar-B mission, around 2010.

Davis, John M.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Evidence that a Deep Meridional Flow Sets the Sunspot Cycle Period

Sunspots appear on the Sun in two bands on either side of the equator that drift toward lower latitudes as each sunspot cycle progresses. We examine the equatorward drift of the centroid of the sunspot area in each hemisphere from 1874 to 2002 and find that the drift rate slows as the centroid approaches the equator. We compare the drift rate at sunspot cycle maximum to the cycle-period for each hemisphere and find a highly significant anti-correlation: hemispheres with faster drift rates have shorter periods. These observations are. consistent with an equatorward meridional counterflow, deep within the Sun, as the primary driver of the equatorward migration and the period associated with the sunspot cycle. We also find that the drift rate at maximum is significantly correlated with the amplitude of the following cycle, a prediction of dynamo models that employ a deep equatorward meridional flow. Our results indicate an amplitude of about 1.2 m/s for the meridional flow velocity at the base of the solar convection zone.

Hathaway, David H.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Video Image Stabilization and Registration

Hathaway, David H.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Supergranule Rotation Rates and Lifetimes

Previous measurements of the rotation rate of the supergranule Doppler pattern have revealed three interesting characteristics. 1) The supergranule pattern rotates faster than the plasma at the surface and, at each latitude, it rotates faster than the plasma at any level below the surface. 2) Larger cells rotate more rapidly than smaller cells. 3) Faster rotation rates are found when using larger time lags between Doppler images. These last two characteristics are consistent with the idea that large cells live longer and extend deeper into the Sun where the rotation rate is faster. A re-examination of the rotation rates and lifetimes of the Doppler patterns seen with the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) instrument on Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) confirms these characteristics. However, a simulation of the data using a spectrum for the cellular flows that matches the observed spectrum shows that these characteristics can be largely reproduced by cellular patterns that rotate at the same rate without any dependence upon cell size, The rotation rate , and its dependence on latitude, is nonetheless still faster than the surface or internal rotation rate. The difference in rotation rates as functions of cell size and time lag between observations is attributed to projection effects on the line-of-sight Doppler signal. This data simulation is also used to determine characteristic lifetimes for the cellular patterns as a function of cell size. These lifetime determinations are also affected by projection effects on the line-of-sight Doppler signal.

Hathaway, David H.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Latitudinal Transport of Angular Momentum by Cellular Flows Observed with MDI

We have analyzed Doppler velocity images from the MDI instrument on SOHO to determine the latitudinal transport of angular momentum by the cellular photospheric flows. Doppler velocity images from 60-days in May to July of 1996 were processed to remove the p-mode oscillations, the convective blue shift, the axisymmetric flows, and any instrumental artifacts. The remaining cellular flows were examined for evidence of latitudinal angular momentum transport. Small cells show no evidence of any such transport. Cells the size of supergranules (30,000 km in diameter) show strong evidence for a poleward transport of angular momentum. This would be expected if supergranules are influenced by the Coriolis force, and if the cells are elongated in an east-west direction. We find good evidence for just such an east-west elongation of the supergranules. This elongation may be the result of differential rotation shearing the cellular structures. Data simulations of this effect support the conclusion that elongated supergranules transport angular momentum from the equator toward the poles, Cells somewhat larger than supergranules do not show evidence for this poleward transport. Further analysis of the data is planned to determine if the direction of angular momentum transport reverses for even larger cellular structures. The Sun's rapidly rotating equator must be maintained by such transport somewhere within the convection zone.

Hathaway, David H.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Sunspots and Giant-Cell Convection

From analysis of Doppler velocity images from SOHO/MDI, Hathaway et al (2000, Solar Phys., in press) have found clear evidence for giant convection cells that fill the solar surface, have diameters 3 - 10 times that typical of supergranules, and have lifetimes approx. greater than 10 days. Analogous to the superposition of the granular convection on the supergranular convection, the approx. 30,000 km diameter supergranules are superposed on these still larger giant cells. Because the giant cells make up the large-scale end of a continuous power spectrum that peaks at the size scale of supergranules, it appears that the giant cells are made by the same mode of convection as the supergranules. This suggests that the giant cells are similar to supergranules, just longer-lived, larger in diameter, and deeper. Here we point out that the range of lengths of large bipolar sunspot groups is similar to the size range of giant cells. This, along with the long lives (weeks) of large sunspots, suggests that large sunspots sit in long-lived, deep downflows at the corners of giant cells, and that the distance from leader to follower sunspots in large bipolar groups is the distance from one giant-cell corner to the next. By this line of reasoning, an unusually large and strong downdraft might pull in both legs of a rising spot-group magnetic flux loop, resulting in the formation of a delta sunspot. This leads us to suggest that a large, strong giant-cell corner downdraft should be present at the birthplaces of large delta sunspots for some time (days to weeks) before the birth. Thus, early detection of such downdrafts by local helioscismology might provide an early warning for the formation of those active regions (large delta sunspot groups) that produce the Sun's most violent flares and coronal mass ejections. This work is supported by NASA's Office of Space Science through the Solar Physics Branch of its Sun-Earth Connection Program.

Moore, Ron L.↗