Engineering Papers⌕ Search

Engineering topics

Hardin, Joseph

Publications and source records attributed to Hardin, Joseph.

At least 37 records · Page 2

Deep Learning for Ensemble Forecasting

Focal Area: (2) Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components and the use of AI and other tools to design a prediction system comprising a hierarchy of models. Science Challenge: While both climate and weather forecast systems have continued to improve due to substantial efforts to improve computational capabilities, observations, and numerical models, the atmosphere is a chaotic system, and this puts a fundamental limit on our ability to make predictions. Forecasts made by high-resolution models initialized with only slightly different atmospheric states can quickly diverge. Quantifying uncertainty in forecasts is essential to adequately understand them and to make the best-informed policy decisions particularly when it comes to hydrology, extreme weather (including extreme precipitation events), and climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Emergent Concepts from a Community Ideation on AI4ESP

This AI4ESP white paper is the outcome of an open ideation session led by PNNL that numerous institutions participated in. The leadership team included Amy Goldman, Huiying Ren, Tim Scheibe, and James Stegen. The white paper is broken into two sections: (1) A summary of the ideation session, and (2) a short summary of a ‘meta idea’ that emerged from combining multiple ideas spanning the three primary focal area themes articulated in BER’s AI4ESP guidance: A - Data Acquisition and Assimilation, B - Predictive Modeling, and C - Insight from Complex Data. The white paper, therefore, has two goals. The first section is meant to be a resource for innovating around how to pursue open, community-based ideation in virtual environments. The second section is meant as an example of the kinds of ‘meta ideas’ that can emerge from bringing diverse ideas together in a single shared space. We consider the second section to be a submission to BER’s request for white papers around AI4ESP.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Facilitating better and faster simulations of aerosol-cloud interactions in Earth system models

Focal Area(s): 1. Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components; the use of AI and other tools to design a prediction system comprising a hierarchy of models. 2. Insight gleaned from complex data (both observed and simulated) using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods, including explainable AI and physics- or knowledge-guided AI. Science Challenge: One major challenge that Earth system models (ESMs) face in providing credible prediction of the Earth system and its water cycle characteristics (e.g., mean state, variability, and extreme events) is to accurately simulate aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI). The physical, chemical, and dynamical processes affecting ACI are extremely complex and they range from nanoscale to planetary scale. In each model development cycle, scientists spend significant efforts investigating model deficiencies and uncertainties associated with aerosols (e.g., emissions, chemical processes, aerosol microphysics, and transport) and clouds (e.g., macrophysics, microphysics, turbulence, and large-scale circulation) in order to develop improved treatments. However, despite decades of active research, ACI is still a major source of uncertainty in climate projections, even though great progress has been made. Specific scientific challenges include: (i) Parameterizations are developed based on limited data; (ii) The complexity of a parameterization required for accurate predictions is not understood; (iii) Incomplete and unknown physics leads to errors in the fully coupled Earth system; and (iv) Complex physics is computationally too expensive to employ in ESMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

xsacrgridrhi.c1

Cartesian Cloud Cover Gridding Product for X-Band Scanning ARM Cloud Radar with calibrated input, RHI scan mode at CACTI, MOSAIC, COMBLE, etc.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

kasacrgridrhi.c1

Cartesian Cloud Cover Gridding Product for Ka-Band Scanning ARM Cloud Radar from calibrated input, RHI scan mode at CACTI, MOSAIC, COMBLE, etc.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Laser Disdrometer Quantities (LDQUANTS) and Video Disdrometer Quantities (VDISQUANTS) Value-Added Products Report

Disdrometers are useful instruments that measure the distribution of raindrop sizes (drop size distribution: DSD) and the associated rainfall rates/accumulation as those raindrops fall to the ground. These DSDs are a quantity of interest to members of the modeler and observational communities. However, use of disdrometer data for model evaluation, radar monitoring, or other activities requires careful quality control and processing for key DSD properties of interest (e.g., the number concentration of drops) to ensure appropriate physical (scattering, fall speed) assumptions. The U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Laser Disdrometer Quantities and Video Disdrometer Quantities Value-Added Product (LDQUANTS/VDISQUANTS VAP) uses standard methods from Tokay et al. (e.g., 2013, 2014) to filter drops with unrealistic fall speeds. Further, it estimates several microphysical/geophysical quantities of parameterized DSDs (gamma or exponential assumption type fitting methods) as in previous disdrometer studies and ARM long-term efforts (e.g., Testud et al. 2001, Giangrande et al. 2014, Thompson et al. 2015). Disdrometers are also beneficial for cross-checks with other instrumentation, including rain gauges and radars. To support research interests and related radar monitoring activities, this product calculates radar equivalent quantities, including dual polarization radar quantities (e.g., Z, Differential Reflectivity ZDR, etc.), using T-Matrix scattering and additional wavelength, temperature, and drop shape assumptions (e.g., Thurai et al. 2007). All of these efforts allow disdrometer data sets to become more useful and easily handled by modeling and observational studies, or routine instrumentation checks.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

kasacrgridppi.c0

Cartesian Cloud Cover Gridding Product for Ka-Band Scanning ARM Cloud Radar, PPI scan mode at CACTI, MOSAIC, COMBLE, etc.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

ARM: KASACRCFRQC

The Ka-Band Scanning ARM Cloud Radar (KASACR) records cloud properties. ARM's scanning cloud radars are dual-frequency, dual-polarization Doppler radars mounted on a common scanning pedestal. Each pedestal includes a Ka-band radar (2kW peak power) and the deployment location determines whether the second radar is a W-band (1.7 kW peak power) or an X-band (20 kW peak power). Beamwidths for Ka-bands paired with W-bands are roughly matched at 0.3 degrees. The X-band beamwidth is approximately 1 degree. Due to the narrow antenna beamwidth, ARM’s scanning cloud radars use scanning strategies unlike typical weather radars. Rather than focusing on plan position indicator, or PPI, scans, the KASACR uses range height indicator, or RHI, scans at numerous azimuths to obtain cloud volume data. Measurements collected with the KASACR are copolar and cross-polar radar reflectivity, Doppler velocity, spectra width and spectra when not scanning, and linear depolarization ratio. KASACR data from the 2018–2019 Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions (CACTI) field campaign in Argentina are now available as b1-level products. Building on the original CACTI operational data, the b1-level products feature improved data quality resulting from extensive analyses and corrections. The data are cross-calibrated to a common point, datastreams are corrected for operational issues that occurred during the campaign, and several data quality masks and basic derived products are incorporated. For more information, read the CACTI radar b1-level processing report.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗